MD Sen: Primary Open Thread
Mfume vs. Cardin for the chance to run against Lt. Gov. Steele (R)
By Adam C Posted in 2006 — Comments (23) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
6:18 AM (Moe Lane) (Yawn) Good morning. We wake to find Cardin well in the lead, but nobody's conceeding the race yet: too many provisional ballots and too many goofups yesterday to make anybody comfortable. Seeing how my own MD voting experience yesterday nearly got me voting in the Democratic primary, can't say that I'm surprised. Both Cardin and Mfune look like they're trying to maintain basic comity - I've seen a bunch of articles stressing their friendship - but we may not have this primary resolved until Monday. (Shrug) So it goes.
1:17 AM: Last update before bedtime. This one from the Sun and shows the race holding steady with 68% reporting. I won't call it since the margin is still under 10 points and we don't know which precincts are finished reporting and which still have a lot of votes to count but Cardin is in an enviable position.
Cardin , Ben 154,194 45.25%
Mfume , Kweisi 127,314 37.36%
12:30 AM: With 57% reporting, the margin is holding at around 10 points. I'm guessing these might be small precincts coming in since they aren't affecting the overall percentage but that is just a guess. Mfume must be hoping that his strongholds haven't reported yet.
Ben CARDIN 129432 46%
Kweisi MFUME 103306 37%
11:35 PM: With 38% reporting, Cardin still holds a solid but not insurmountable lead. It mainly depends on how many Mfume districts have reported so far.
Ben CARDIN 81231 47%
Kweisi MFUME 65314 37%
11:51 PM: Almost half of precincts reporting, but which half?
48% reporting:
Ben CARDIN 106720 46%
Kweisi MFUME 84536 37%
10:49 PM: It seems each chunk of reporting goes one way or the other leading to swings in race. This is probably due to the highly racialized voting patterns in this primary. The most recent affiliate results with 18% reporting:
Ben CARDIN 33773 44%
Kweisi MFUME 25434 34%
Josh RALES 4886 7%
10:20 PM: More from the affiliate. These must be from a more Mfume friendly region. 10% reporting and the percentage flip is from the original site:
Ben CARDIN 19367 39%
Kweisi MFUME 18843 40%
10:00 PM: The Baltimore Sun now has results coming in. For those following, results can be found in the Sun, the WaPo, the local CBS affiliate, and the official MD results page. The official page has no results yet. The most results are at the CBS affiliate (3% reporting). Although we don't know where these results are coming from and thus they are not very informative:
Ben CARDIN 7979 55%
Kweisi MFUME 3338 23%
Josh RALES 1067 7%
RASMUSSEN 864 6%
UPDATE: Note, I will update on the top of this post as results come in. The local CBS affiliate has the first results:
Cardin 236
Mfume 116
UPDATE: Direct link to the MD Election Results. And also the WaPo Election Results
Follow results on this site although I'm not sure where exactly or on the WaPo in that section. If you find direct links, please post in comments.
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given the reports of irregularities. For once, I wish the Kossack Diebold conspiracy theories had some basis in fact.
As long as the losing side's supporters believe the theory, it's good enough for us.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Even better for Steele, a court battle over a recount whether it happens or not. And a narrow win by Cardin due to the extra voting hour in the suburbs would probably help disenchant some black voters since the two suburban counties (Montgomery and Baltimore County) are lacking in minority representation. It is highly possible that Cardin will win because polls were extended in those counties. That would lead to a major court battle if Mfume so desired (and knowing his past, he would do so).
Of course the turning away of voters in MoCo could also depress Cardin's numbers which could lead to an actual victory for Mfume, rightly or wrongly. Cardin is somewhat of a push-over from what I can tell from media reports, so he might forgo the legal battles to help Mfume out.
Any of these protracted battles helps Steele. But of course, the election must be close for them to matter. That may or may not happen.
I misread and that changes the analysis significantly. So one suburban and one urban "county" are open late. That makes both the impact and the resulting finger-pointing much harder to predict.
the Maryland Democratic Party have to declare who it thinks actually won the primary before the courts would become involved? Asking, and hoping...
are keeping only certain polling places open past 8pm.
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What i have in my heart , I'll take to my grave - Hatebreed
This is great news for Republicans.
We can have suppressed Democartic tunrout in Nov. by whatever faction feels they were "cheated" in the primary.
This is an unanticipated positive side effect of the Democratic declarations of cheating whenever they lose. Now they start to eat their own in the primaries. Awesome!
Michael Steele will beat either Cardin or Mfume. The greater spectacle the Democrats make of their primary, the larger margin Steele wins by.
I'd like to see a narrow victory by Cardin followed by vicious allegations by Mfume of minority voter suppression, manipulation, etc. Something really nasty. Mfume should have no problem genning that up.
And the nastier it gets between them the better!!
If Mfume ends up saying Cardin stole the primary, how can he then encourage his voters to vote for Cardin? He'll either tell them to stay home or vote for the remaining black candidate.
Do we know from what areas the early results are coming from?
The official results page has it by county. But the WaPo and local CBS affiliate do not on the page I am tracking. All results so far are from the affiliate and WaPo.
From the CBS folks at 9:47 EST:
Ben CARDIN 2038 46%
Kweisi MFUME 939 21%
Cardin's ahead by 1099 votes, but showing 99% left to report.
Cardin 15,427 52.69
Mfume 7,055 24.09
A difference of 8372.
From the Sun.
It seems to me like Cardin would be a more difficult opponent for Steele than Mfume. Cardin is a 10-term member of the House, and can point to legislation he helped pass, while Mfume's claim to fame is leading the NAACP, which may not go over well with white Democrats in MD.
From what I've seen on his website, Steele is running an excellent campaign, and could pull off an upset in a blue state.
The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.
** Mfume was on the Baltimore City Council serving from 1978 until 1986.
** He was elected to Congress in 1986 and served five terms for Maryland's seventh district (serving in Congresses 100 - 104).
** Mfume left the House in Feb 96 to accept the presidency of the NCAAP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kweisi_Mfume
:)
Your Word is your Worth, your Worth is your Word
He forgets to mention that he is a republican on his website and in his commercials! The dems will morph him into bush and in Maryland that is going to be hard to defend.
You've already had your attempt to monkeywrench for this thread; if nobody's responded it's because it's a quarter after six and all the Right Wing Death Beasts are still snug sleeping in their dens.
Heck, I'm only up for the webcomics.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
Steele will be a great addition to the Senate regardless of political affiliation. He won't be the most conservative member but he is from MD. He will be a dynamic speaker and a leader.
I'm borderline on whether this is a trollish comment. Only the kossites really care whether Steele or others mention their party in ads. Most of us understand that there are a lot of voters who get turned off by partisanship. In MD, Steele hopes to win the Republican vote, a chunk of the black Democratic vote, and a lot of the independent vote to win the election. If he thinks running as Michael Steele is more effective than running as Mr. Republican, then that's fine by me. I care more that a man so dynamic and intelligent win his race rather than proclaim his partisan bona fides. And the fact that you think he "forgot" is what really makes me lean towards seeing this as trollish.
You are correct that Ds will try to run against Mr. Republican rather than Lt. Gov. Steele. And that is one reason he is putting a lot of effort into defining himself early as a Senator for all Marylanders.
It looks like cardin had a fairly comfortable victory so there shouldn`t be any battles but there are still the provisionals to count.I voted yesterday and it was a disaster,
It looks like albert wynn may go down, another sign of incumbents in trouble.Still nip and tuck and there will probably be a recount but he is a pro businesss democrat in a liberal district who was accused of being to cozy with the bush adm., still if he loses it will be a shock. He is my representative and in this district the democrat is elected automatically.
The best news is that relic schaeffer was finally removed , that guy has been a senile joke for years. So Cardin will be the nominee in the end, expect steele to lose.
Long, nasty one.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill