Oddities
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (12) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The exit polling has some oddities in it. Keep that in mind.
First, there appears to be a dead heat in the popular vote, which is actually good for the GOP.
Second, because the ground game for the GOP was played heavily in early voting and absentee balloting, the numbers will skew to the Democrats.
Third, the numbers are close. While some are now privately expecting the GOP will finally run up against history and suffer losses, right now there is good reason to be optimistic.
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optimistic, I'm a Broncos fan and not a Browns fan, So I know it's not over until the clock is all zeroes. There is no reason to be glum until the trophy is handed out... in his freezer.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
things are bad in Virgina. I hope that aint true. I am really prayng for at least a Senate majority. Judicial appointments are the biggest thing Bush could accomplish in his last 2 years.
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/7ad414e8-3f97-4ba4-a161-759a2da579c6
Hugh Hewitt has some RNC numbers tracking turnout in heavily GOP and heavily Dem precincts.
In Virginia, "Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%". Since Bush won by 9% in 2004, a higher fraction of GOP turnout than Dem turnout looks good for Allen.
Also, in Connecticut, "In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote." If those precincts are in the right places, that looks good for Reps. Simmons (CT-2), Shays (CT-4), and Johnson (CT-5).
The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.
had reason to be optimistic off the 2004 exits? The exit polls are interesting fodder, but I'm reserving all judgment until the real McCoy starts rolling in.
Two years ago I remember watching Intrade when the Exit polls came out. Bush went down to $10 for a $100 contract. Wish I would have had some money.
What's going on in Virginia? I haven't heard anything except calls about false voting places. I also heard Webb was behind it because like 90-10 of the complaints were Republicans.
until the first polls in the country close - then we can stop speculating and start celebrating... in his freezer.
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Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same. -The Fray, "All At Once"
According to numbers posted on MyDD, it's going to be a bad night. Democrats lead by big margins in RI, PA, OH, MT, MO, and VA. Republicans have small leads in TN and AZ. Those numbers stand in contrast to the APPARENTLY even turnout numbers though. I doubt the exit poll data will be wrong four years in a row. There goes the permanent Republican majority.
I doubt the exit poll data will be wrong four years in a row.
Well, they've skewed Dem since they started, if they got it right it would be an outlier...in his freezer.
Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats
Virginia is anecdotally bad because of the high turnout. Every poll which published internals had Allen trailing by 10+% among independents. The larger the share of independents the greater had to be the Republican vs. Democratic self ID weights. This race demonstrates the importance of campaigns. Lets hope Maryland does as well.
things are bad in Virgina. I hope that aint true. I am really prayng for at least a Senate majority. Judicial appointments are the biggest thing Bush could accomplish in his last 2 years.