Rasmussen: Kean up 5
Plus an Open Thread
By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2006 — Comments (7) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
I am certain that Gerry, et al will have much more about this on crosstabs later today (and if you're not reading crosstabs, you're missing the most comprehensive polling coverage on the web), but I wanted to quickly point out a couple of new polls available today behind the Rasmussen pay wall. First, Tom Kean is now up 5 over Menendez, 44-39. Incumbents below 40 are generally in very serious trouble, but the usual caveat about leaners/dead people breaking Democrat at the last minute in New Jersey applies.
Second, Rasmussen also has another "generic ballot" poll which shows the Republicans closing on the Democrats - they are currently down 6 among all adults, and down 8 among likely voters. These polls, generally speaking, mean almost nothing, but the shift would seem to indicate that perhaps the great wave we've all been fearing is just not coming.
Talk about this, or whatever else you'd like - open thread.
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Rasmussen: Kean up 5 7 Comments (0 topical, 7 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
they are currently down 6 among all adults, and down 8 among likely voters
I know we usually do better with LV than Adults in head to head match ups, does anyone know if it applies to generic ballot? (IIRC we usually do better than the generic polls anyways)
Rasmussen noted this oddity, and chalked it up to a potential "intensity of feeling" among Democrats - I'm not sure if that's correct, but it's a statistical anomaly, definitely.
"Our concern for human life must not be confined to the guilty..." - Coker v. Georgia, 433 U.S. 584, 616 (U.S. 1977) (BURGER, C.J. dissenting)
Are they running on conservative values and suppoting the GWOT, or are they running as appeasment RINOs? Gee. Hmmm. Republicans can pick up seats if they run against the moral and patriotic bankruptcy of the Demobats.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Another poll out yesterday by Farleigh Dickinson has Kean up 43%-39%. It's not looking good for Senator Menendez. I know that Tom Kean isn't exactly our conservative homeboy, but winning New Jersey would spell the end for Dem chances of taking control of the Senate.
For Farleigh Dickinson, visit here: http://publicmind.fdu.edu/hinges/
Also on the Senate, John Kyl of Arizona is holding big leads in 2 new inependent polls (52%-35% in one and 46%-36% in another). Also, the GOP's Michael Steele remains highly competitive in Maryland.
Add in a TN hold with a NJ win and hopefully we will sap some of the momentum of Dems to come out and vote on election day while at the same time ramping up our big MO.
Start focusing on GOTV with your friends and neighbors.
The Dems are so full of themselves and ludicrously overconfident that they couldn't see trouble coming if it hit them on the head. We need to fight this thing to the very end with everything we've got.
You see, we hear this endless talk about the GOP's 'bad year' and the coming pro-Democrat hurricane, but, if things are so bad for the GOP why are they doing so well in so many areas? Aside evidence in states like MD and NJ, there's lots of other positive signals for us. Republican governors or gov candidates are heavily favored to win re-election in states like CA, TX, FL, AL, SC, CT and even VT. If this is such an anti-GOP cycle, what's going on there? Why was Brian Bilbray elected in the extremely unfavorable circumstances in CA's 50th?
My point is this: KEEP FIGHTING. I believe we're going to win this thing.
This might be a race worth fighting for.