Rethinking the Majority
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (25) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The window is rapidly closing for the GOP to change the message. As John McIntyre notes this morning, generic balloting that has come out after the Foley scandal shows a 5.5% swing to the Democrats.
If the GOP cannot change the message *this week*, the GOP majority in the House and, most likely, the Senate is toast. That's life and that is reality.
Again, if the message does not change this week, start saying "Speaker Pelosi."
UPDATE: And don't miss this. Like rats on a sinking ship, people are starting to scatter and cast blame.
With four weeks left in the campaign, GOP strategists, speaking on background, have begun to outline a highly gloomy view of the House election for their party.
They are all but writing off GOP open seats in Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Florida (the one previously held by Foley). Party officials said that three GOP incumbents in Indiana are trailing in private polling and that seats thought safe suddenly appear imperiled. These include the open Florida seat vacated by Rep. Katherine Harris, who is running for senator. "It is unquestionably closer than we would like," said Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.).
The only way to stop this tide is to call your friends and family and get them re-energized.
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Rethinking the Majority 25 Comments (0 topical, 25 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I find it hard to believe that Democrats will win 6 Senate seats, but Republicans at this point will lose the House.
http://constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.php
that polling shows a swing already and they doing another round of polling soon for new races.
Back to the Senate
For Democrats
I think with this current environment Republicans will lose PA, MT, RI, and OH
MO, TN, and VA are toss ups
I think VA will stay Republican, MO will come out to turnout at this point, and TN is surprisingly going Democrat because of the horrible campaign Corker is running. A month ago I would of said that it is a safe Republican but now it is a toss up. Corker needs to change message fast.
For Republicans
NJ only toss up that I see right now. Again will come to turnout. This brings the most parallels to MO. Though unlike in MO this is a heavily Democratic state so it says 3 things. 1) Kean Jr. is a strong campaigner and a good one. 2) Independents are unhappy with Democrats in the state. 3) The race will end up to turnout.
WA and MD are lean Democrat
I have a hard time putting WA here but WA Democrats don't have the best candidates.
MD is an open seat and Steele is running a good campaign. Polling though isn't good for Republicans though. It is something to watch in the final month.
I'm not ready to throw in the towel, but I think it's easy to find 15 seats in which Republicans currently trail. Nothing is written is stone, but at least five of these seats are certain goners. It's time for the Republicans to break through the media cycle and change the subject. Unfortunately, they seem incapable of doing so. Even worse, Bush seems MIA on this subject. I don't think he should get directly invovled in the Foley topic, but he and only he has the ability to change the subject. Why does he seem so reluctant to do so? Erick's right. If they don't do something this week, they're done. I thought Karl Rove was smarter than this. If he keeps giving this advice, the hero worship will be over.
TX22, AZ8, FL16, CO7, IA1, IN2, IN8, IN9, PA10, OH18, WI8, NY26, VA2, KY4, NC11
is to get the GOP candidates talking like winners instead of losers and start talking about national security, lower taxes and traditional values. A little optimism goes a long way.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
is why the Foley scandal was timed for when it was timed. Lets hope the Evangelicals and Paleocons realkize that by sitting out they are causing more harm than good.
Also, looks as though that guy who won the GOP Nomination in Kolbe's old seat is turning out to be a disaster. This is what we get for listening to the Malkinites.
Sitting out is a vote for KOS.
Declare defeat before the vote is even taken?
Because a friggin' closeted gay man gets outed for being gay?
I think not.
This is when we volunteer for the phone banks, give the money till it hurts, and never never never surrender.
The dems have a plan for this country: Losing wars and raising taxes and increasing spending even more.
The dems have a plan for free speech: crush it.
The dems have a plan for defense against nuclear missles: jsut say no.
The dems have a plan for religious thought and practice: suppress it.
The dems have a plan for voter reform: let all the illegals vote.
The dems have a plan for the environment: waste billions fixing little and cripple America's economy.
The dems have a plan for education: teach less at a much higher price.
I reject that plan and support where we are and where we are going.
I think most Americans will, as well.
They recently did a story which highlighted how "voters were changing" here in Southwest Missouri which is a farce. They mentioned three Democratic candidates (picked out by Roy Temple of hard line Democrat blog) in our area. Only one of which may win election, and she is an incumbant.
The compost is doing its best to spin a Democratic win and to make people feel like they are doing great and making in roads to former Republican voters. That may be happening, but on what scale? It is enough?
The media is trying its best to help Democrats get elected. We need to stay strong and just get the message out. It isnt November yet.
The last few elections leave only a few things certain in my mind.
1) The Dems are extremely efficient at registering names instead of voters.
2) The Dems are extremely efficient at GOTV (getting out the vitriol).
3) The Dems almost always overplay their hand.
IMHO-The Foley scandal is a media frenzy that has activists on both sides up in arms, but your average citizen could care less. My prognosis of this diseased entity we call Congress- GOP loses seats but retains majority on both sides.
_____________________________________________________
Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
Boo Boo, you are a jewel. But that cat looks alarmingly like a bat.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
Or weren't the Democrats supposed to win Congress in 2002....and 2004....and Kerry was supposed to beat Bush if I'm not mistaken....and wait a second....none of that happened.
Foley is the best chance the Dems have and if they can't pull it out (as history shows they tend to come up a wee bit short), then how can they win? The only way is if we conservatives get angry enough at our own party and not show up to put them back in office. And frankly, none of us want to be saying "Speaker Pelosi" even if we can't stand how our party has been doing on immigration etc. If we give up now, we give up 2008, and maybe even further than that. North Korea's test gives us a HUGE opportunity to take back the airwaves before November. We MUST take back the momentum. Does everyone remember what we did when Harriett Miers came along? We nade sure that we got what we deserved for a judge on the Supreme Court. We can do it again with these midterm elections. Buckle down, it's crunch time folks. Stay strong everyone. Our country needs it.
I've listened to the pundits. I've absorbed all the dire predictions.
And I still have a hard time believing that the American voter is going to the polls and vote based on the 'Mark Foley WannaBeAScandal™'
John
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True, you can sit outside in Paris and drink little cups of coffee, but why this is more stylish than sitting inside and drinking large glasses of whisky, I don't know.
P.J O'Rourke
has caught up with me or perhaps I need a stronger dose of meds, but at 30 days out I am hard pressed to necessarily believe these polls. I have seen over the years SO many polls that seem to indicate dem favorability only to see them wither on the vine when the rubber meets the road.
I frequently think these things are sniffing for the numbers they want so they can then be used to push more influence thru the media blitz they always enjoy. As I have said here often, no one has EVER invited me to participate in ANY of these things...and methinks there are quite a few conservative out there who likewise aren't participating.
You missed the poll this morning that indicated 30 percent of "Americans asked" believe Bush, Rove, and the GOP are manipulating the gas prices DOWN in order to improve their re-election chances!! 30% of Dems AND Cons...c'mon now boys & girls...that is patently absurd.
We need to worry, yes. But 30 seats? I don't know about anyone else here but in my travels this is still the era of the incumbent with or without Foley, with or without the nutjob in Korea, and with or without all the other screaming headlines...heck-people are still going to write in DeLay for goodness sake.
Erick has it right-we need to make sure the Dems don't get the ONE SOLE THING THEY CAN'T WIN WITHOUT:
Repubs MUST go to the polls...whether they are happy with the party or not, they CAN NOT afford to NOT vote...period.
Proud to be: politically incorrect, straight, white, pro-life Christian, and of the opinion the spotted owl tastes just like chicken.
"Repubs MUST go to the polls...whether they are happy with the party or not, they CAN NOT afford to NOT vote...period."
All Republicans have to offer then Republicans will lose. Who cares if Republicans don't listen to voters or do anything worthwhile. Beware of the evil Democrat is a losing campaign message.
is that 30 days out leaves "getting the message out" more desperate and obtuse. Repubs know what the score is with their candidates. Dems too.
Anyone who doesn't know by now what they are voting for within either of the parties they are predisposed to vote for are just extra numbers in the final tally.
The dems are succeeding in discouraging the repubs from even bothering to vote...this is their final ultimate strategy. Low turnout historically yields dem victories.
The tone and tenor of this campaign, to your ultimate point, is beware of the evil democrat AND beware of the evil republican. Both sides are down to that. Given the track record of both parties in the 110th, that's about all EITHER of them have right now, so turnout DOES matter more than what these guys SAY they stand for.
Proud to be: politically incorrect, straight, white, pro-life Christian, and of the opinion the spotted owl tastes just like chicken.
but the good news is libertarian-leaning candidate are kickin' ass and taking names, both libertarian Republicans and even Republican-leaning Libertarian Party candidates.
Butch Otter is way out ahead for Idaho Governor.
Sarah Palin is way out ahead of fmr. Dem Gov. Tony Knowles in Alaska.
Bob Smither is within striking distance in TX CD-22. The conservative is running on the Libertarian ticket.
5 Libertarian Party members are winning for Vermont State House seats, running as Republicans.
This will be a banner year for libertarian Republicans. Best ever. And the media, including Red State is entirely ignoring the story. What gives?
Eric Dondero
www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
Has there been any polling yet in TX-10?
-exits
Maybe there's a sign here in the elections. Libertarian Republicans are winning. And at the same time conservative and moderate Republicans are tanking nationwide.
Perhaps there's a message here for the future of the GOP.
Libertarianism; "Fiscally Conservative, Socially Tolerant and Pro-Defense" is a winning strategy!
Eric Dondero
www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
First off, there's little evidence that libertarians tend to be pro-defense. Just look at Ron Paul's voting record.
Second, what exactly isn't the Republican party of today "socially tolerant" about? Redefining marriage? Abortion on demand? Why don't you come out and say what you mean?
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
That libertarians would be more socially liberal on issues like Abortion because of less government interference. Can really be shocked?
I thought it was "life, liberty, property." I guess the first one doesn't count anymore.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
You make a point but a lot of libertarians dont see it that way
If generic polls meant anything, every incumbent would lose every Congressional election, because of how badly that body polls generically.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
Hey see we agree every once and awhile.
I totally agree Generic polling is basically worthless. All it can even be considered useful for is open seats and to messager independents satisfaction.
Whether we like it or not, the Republican party is tied to George Bush. Bush and all of his cabinet members need to come out and defend their policies. He was doing this to some extent before the whole Foley mess. Bush and Republican candidates should focus on two messages. Message one: the economy is doing well. We have good growth, low unemployment, and low inflation. Bush and Republicans need to pound this over and over. Message two: defend the Iraq war. Show Sadam's mass graves. Replay again and again, Sadam's victums telling people about how they were raped and their families killed in horrible ways. Also, restate our plans for creating a democratic Iraq that will be an example to its neighbors (not that it is yet). Remind people how this worked in Germany and Japan after WWII and Korea after that war.
The Republican majority in the House has always been narrow, always been at risk, especially in 1996 and 1998. It survived.
If we give the voters something to vote for (think national security and keeping the tax cuts), they will come.
Until I see polls that show 15 particular House (and six individual Senate seats) lost, I will remain energized. Your advice is sound about getting our family and neighbors to the polls, though.