Senate2006: Polls, Polls, Polls
Some good, some bad for Republicans.
By Adam C Posted in 2006 — Comments (15) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
MSNBC/McClatchy released a slew of Senate polls. Here are the results:
* Rhode Island: Chafee 46%, Whitehouse 45%
* Missouri: McCaskill 46%, Talent 45%
* New Jersey: Menendez 48%, Kean 41%
* Montana: Burns 47%, Tester 47%
* Tennessee: Corker 50%, Ford 38%
* Virginia: Webb 46%, Allen 43%
* Pennsylvania: Casey 52%, Santorum 39%
* Washington: Cantwell 54%, McGavick 38%
* Michigan: Stabenow 53%, Bouchard 37%
* Arizona: Kyl 49%, Pederson 41%
* Maryland: Cardin 47%, Steele 44%
* Ohio: Brown 50%, DeWine 44%
Note OH and PA still seem outside Republican reach. RI's result is an outlier but might signal Chafee still has a chance. MO still a toss-up. MT is now seen as a toss-up by everyone. MD within the MoE. VA has shifted to a slight Webb lead and Corker is running away in TN. Except for RI, most of these trends have been seen in other polls.
For details on the MD poll, go here. No internal breakdowns, but the poll has 24% of the vote coming from black voters which matches the 2004 turnout.
Survey Methodology from MSNBC:
Methodology
These polls were conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from:* October 31st through November 2nd in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Washington.
* November 1st through November 3rd in Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, and New Jersey.A total of 625 likely voters in each state were interviewed by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers.
A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points in each poll. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.
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Senate2006: Polls, Polls, Polls 15 Comments (0 topical, 15 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Closer than TN, and trending in the opposite direction.
It will be narrower than most years in AZ. But the GOP has good registration numbers in AZ and there are no specific reasons to fire Kyl (as opposed to Burns). Kyl is like Talent in a state that is 5 more points Republican. I would predict Kyl 54-46.
Virginia poll is 46-45 Webb, not 46-43. Also shows marriage amendment passing by only 49 to 45. In that respect, at least, the poll is skewed.
Poll shows Tennessee gone. Ariz--despite some movement away from Kyl, he should still win by 4 points or more.
So 49 baseline. Dems have to sweep the four toss-ups (poll averages of less than 5 points): Mo, Mt, Va, and Md. Plus RI, which may be back in play again.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
I mean, if it's +-3%, then that means some of those, like Maryland and Virginia, could actually be the exact opposite of what is said here.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
I'm going to do a cartwheeling touchdown dance. Perhaps film it and link up.
And on Montana--I'll take what I can get, but couldn't SOME other Republican pull it out? I'd rather take a Steele any day.
I really think we're screwed in VA. Which means probable loss of PA/RI/OH/VA/(MT or MO). Anybody want to offer Lieberman a chairmanship?
Disclaimer: Works for Alan Schlesinger (R-CT). Volunteer, no pay.
To control the Senate. Or in your estimation, MO and MT. Possible, not likely. MT, MO, VA, MD, and RI all may be close enough to go R. Rs need only one (assuming TN is safe).
or Talent or Burns and likely not Steele. I still believe Santurom might surprise and really make the Dems look silly.
and ecstatic about either the fourth or the fifth. It seems pretty unlikely that the Dems take the Senate (it seems unlikely even that they'd tie things up) but I'd be shocked if we came back with 53 or more seats.
in recent days. In truth its been pretty terrible all along. Jim Webb has put out two large positive ads portraying him as a modern-day Cincinnatus, one in which he is endorsed by the very popular Mark Warner. Allen is still running the ads attacking the content of Webb's books. Allen has had a remarkable degree of efficacy for a first-termer. He should be running on his accomplishments both as a Senator and as Governor. Unless something changes the voters are going to go to the polls last touched by Jim Webb touting himself as a voice for (amorphouse, unspecified nonpartisan) change and Allen insulting Webb and perpetrating a running battle with a middle aged student cum pseudo-stalker. Webb has looked senatorial; Allen, to date an excellent Senator, has not. His campaign needs to do something in the last forty-eight hours to give voters a more enduring image.
the Webb campaign is the one that started this disgusting mudslinging, and he can't run away from that fact. Allen's campaign might be worse than any other campaign in the nation (though I don't think that's quite true, it certainly hasn't clothed itself in glory), except for the Webb campaign (Cardin, McCaskill, and Casey are all up there as well).
I think he has run an exceptionally dirty campaign and the conduct of those acting on his behalf has been even worse. I'm talking about right now. And right now, when voters are getting their last impressions of candidates, Allen is carping on passages in Webb novels while Webb is portraying himself as the All American candidate. Allen should focus on his own record, which is exemplary, and leave the gutter politics behind.
Incase you haven't been told in awhile thank you for your due diligence!!!
Respect!...
"The Road To Freedom Is Seldom Traveled By The Multitude" Madhouse Thought
Yay After destroying Zogby & leaving him by the roadside why would you believe anything to do with PMSNBC or MSLSD take your pick. McClatchy newspapers is the best partner they could come up with SHEEEEES!