Redstate

War Evens Race

By California Yankee Posted in 2006 — Comments (1) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Two weeks before the election a new University of Connecticut poll finds both Republican Congressman Chris Shays and challenger Diane Farrell preferred by 43 percent of likely voters with 9 percent undecided.

Read on.

Another UConn poll, released at the beginning of the month, had Shays leading Farrell 46 percent to 41 percent. The new poll finds Farrell is gaining ground among unaffiliated voters whose concerns about the war have increased 12 percent in the past three weeks.

The new poll shows unaffiliated voters breaking for Farrell. She has erased a 16-point deficit to pull almost even with Shays in unaffiliated support, 38 percent to 39 percent.

Nearly 38 percent of all likely voters now say the war is the most important issue in the race, compared with 28 percent in previous poll. Farrell is supported by two-thirds of the voters who consider the war the top issue, compared with 22 percent for Shays.

The two candidates have held 11 debates this month. Of those who saw the debates, 41 percent said Shays did better and 33 percent preferred Farrell.

The poll was conducted from October 16 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

The race is too close to call. Last week the Congressional Quarterly moved the race from the toss-up category to the leaning Democratic column. However, both the Rothenberg Political Report and the Cook Political Report say the race is a toss-up, but leans Republican:

"Shays has a slight advantage," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for the Rothenberg Report. "But I would not call it safe by any means. Dianne Farrell has run a campaign for three years, starting with the 2004 election."

Shays has taken a lot of flak for a couple of recent statements. In a debate Shays said in the Abu Ghraib prison scandal in Iraq was not torture but a "sex scandal," Shays later retracted the statement. Another statement was a bit of red meat for redstaters. When Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy campaigned for Farrell, she asked why Shays did not demand the resignation of U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert. Shays responded, "I know the speaker didn't go over a bridge and leave a young person in the water and then have a press conference the next day. Dennis Hastert didn't kill anybody."

Shays is not apologetic about referring to Kennedy's infamous 1969 Chappaquiddick scandal in which a woman riding with Kennedy was killed in a car crash, and Kennedy delayed telling authorities:

"Chris did what he always does," Sohn [Shays' campaign manager] said. "He spoke the truth and let the chips fall where they may."

I think Shays also hurt himself when he backed off from his staunch support of the war. Shays now favors a conditional time line to leave Iraq, setting goals for a gradual draw down of U.S. troops in the country in hopes of pressuring the Iraq government to independently defend itself. Shays also says he has no confidence in Rumsfeld.

The Hartford Courant endorsed Farrell over Shays, but I give more weight to this:

To the editor:

I am a college student who volunteered for the Diane Farrell campaign in 2004 and the Chris Shays campaign in 2006. I feel my experiences hold a valuable lesson for voters in this year's congressional race.

While at the Farrell campaign, it was the Democratic way or the highway. The partisanship in her office made it unbearable for a moderate like myself. I could not express any views that disagreed with Farrell or then-presidential candidate John Kerry without being ridiculed or mocked.

I was alienated for expressing any positive thoughts about any aspect of President Bush's foreign policy objectives. Ultimately, I voted for Congressman Shays in 2004, even after spending the summer volunteering for Farrell.

Conversely, on my first day at the Shays campaign, staff members explained that everyone held different views, and that while we may not always agree -- even with Congressman Shays -- we respected our differences of opinion, regardless how liberal or conservative they may be.

Shays and his campaign understand that being a representative is much more than just being a Democrat or Republican; it is about serving the people. Farrell's campaign, on the other hand, made it all about electing a Democrat over a Republican.

Having spent my last summer volunteering for Shays, I could not be more proud to say that: "Chris Shays is my congressman, and I will continue to support him."

Ethan Zorfas

Westport