Redstate

Senate EVEN: Pickups: Steele, Kean Lose: Santorum, Chafee

House: GOP -6 (we pickup two in GA, and three others for 5 pickups, and we lose 11 currently GOP seats)

Senate: Dems gain six -- Santorum, Tester, Brown, Whitehouse, McCaskill, and I-didn't-believe-this-three-months-ago Ford. Lose no current seats.

House: Dems gain 20.

Governor: Dems gain a few. New York, probably. :)

House: -12 GOP
Senate: -4 GOP

Governors: Who knows, but Charlie Crist is beating the pants off Jim Davis. Hey, maybe that's not the best turn of phrase...

"Every time some nitwit college student burns a flag on camera, that's one less idiot who can ever run for public office." - Crank

House: No change
Senate: R+1
Governor: No change (not that it matters)
Media: no change

House:
These are the least "generic" races. People, even today, have a reasonable chance at getting to know their Congressman, at least before he goes to DC. The more who know him and like him, the better his chances at getting elected. National politics only matters in terms of his reflection of it.

TX-17: Van Taylor wins, as Texans come to their senses.

Senate:
CT: Lieberman wins, as his new cut-and-run stance pulls the legs out from the Lamont campaign's last-ditch effort, in which Venus can clearly be seen extruding into Ursula Major's hyperbola. Lamont finishes behind Schlesinger, who benefits from disaffected Lieberman Republican hawks.

MO: Talent wins, as Claire's husband is filmed threatenting dead voters with cutting off their stem cell therapy if they ever leave him.

MD: Steele, after a surprise move by Cardin to join the Steele Democrats fails to have the anticipated impact.

TN: Corker, as Harold Ford accepts a job for Playboy crashing the debuts of rival Girls Gone Gonzo DVDs.

Media:
No matter what happens, the story will be the message the Republicans were sent: be more liberal, and Fox is lying when they say we're lying.

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Evil men hide from the truth, but good men stand upon it.

After talking with my brother, whose optimism is contagious:

Senate: +3

House: +2

And we'll all be laughing when the heads of the Democrats explode.

Icythus

I am using the tried and true method of pouring over the musings of one million monkeys on typewriters and my trusty magic 8-ball as a secondary data source.
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Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes

I'm not one for predictions usually but what the heck.

House - 15 pickup for Dems giving a slight Dem edge.
Senate - 4 pickup for the Dems letting the GOP retain the Senate.
Governors - Don't much care except for New York and I'm fairly confident that the Democrat might eek out a victory in that race.

This could very well completely gridlock Congress. But with the houses split and minor majorities, both parties just might need to seek compromises on some matters.

Both sides will claim the election to be a victory eventhough neither will be able to do much afterwards. It will also officially mark the end of the Bush Presidency in terms of being able to do anything.

"There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were and ask why not." George Bernard Shaw

That's the official line out of the law office/political gambling gambling house of Tyler, Texas.

Those numbers are calculated using a tried and true method:
Senate Calculation
((Kos Prediction) - 5)/3

House Calculation
((Kos Prediction) - 15)/4

I stumbled across this methodology while creating a similar formula for opinion polls using Zogby as the constant.

Sola Gratia

The GOP will retain entire Congress by the narrow margins.

I think that the BIG and final blow will be delivered to the Liberal Wing of the Democrat Party in the 2008 elections. I feel that the loss that they will experience will somewhat overshadow the Pres. election.

I believe that when some of these big libs are up for re-election is when we will see the tides turn.

Liberalism is about to die a long cruel death in America.

"They have not seen 'bad' yet, but it's comin"

I hope to see the 'vast-right-wing-machine' cranking on all cylinders by election season 2008. It is long past the time of ending liberalism as a serious party in this Country!!!

That is all.

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"It is a sordid business, this divvying us up by race." - Chief Justice John Roberts

On the negative side here...

Senate: -4; Lose Santorum, Dewine, Burns and Chafee.

House: -21; Lose sets of people from Pennsylvania, Indiana, New York and Ohio, the dumb open seat turnovers, and a few more veterans sprinkled in from around the country.

Senate: net loss of 2 Republican seats because of ofsetting pickups, and I'm thinking we have a 50-50 chance of having Lieberman cross over to caucus Republican because of the uproar on the Donkey side of the isle over losing again.

House: net loss of six seats because of some pickups that offset the losses.

I'm not sure how the Democrats are going to rationalize a loss yet again under these circumstances. My hunch is that the moderate Dems will pull back toward the middle. We'll know more as soon as we see who becomes their new leaders in the House and Senate, since I think a loss across the board means that both Harry and Nancy are toast.

I'm not going to even try to handicap the governor races...but here's some thoughts on '08 and the prez.

For the GOP, I think holding both houses gives us Rudy as a prime contender for nominee in '08 -- but we avoid what I think is a much worse alternative and we also avoid losing the gains made in the Supreme Court.

Speaking of worse alternative...losing both houses gives us McCain as nominee (and, I predict, Lieberman as VP candidate) -- and we also lose big in the Supreme Court with one, or possibly two, retirements that we will have no chance of slotting Conservatives into.

Losing the House and holding the Senate narrowly may start a war for the soul of the Republican Party that effectively takes us out of contention in the next election and possibly beyond. It could get messy, and I don't see Conservatives (or the country) benefiting from it.

Whatever happens, we are going to have to work our butts off over the next couple or three election cycles to try to get actual Conservative House candidates.

On the Senate side, the GOP will lose 4 seats (Chafee, Burns, Santorum and DeWine). These are all no-brainers, and to squeak one of these out will be a minor miracle and major victory. I'm getting more nervous about Talent. Both Kean and Steele lose by 4 points.

On the House side, the GOP loses 17 seats, giving the Dems narrow control. If GOTV means more than I think it does, it could hold the losses to 10-12 seats.

I may have to amend my prediction. Talent is trailing 46-43. Make that a 5 seat loss in the Senate (Burns, DeWine, Chafee, Talent and Santorum).

Senate R+2
House R-2

I don't believe the polling or the media hype at all. From every indication that I have seen conservatives are plenty ready to get out and vote. And on top of that conservatives aren't stupid we understand that a vote for a pro-life democrat means Speaker Pelosi. The trouble for Dems is that there best chances in the House is where the demographics and money is heavily against them. I see Rep. losing IA-1, CO-7, because of vacancies and demographics and losing two of the three scandal seats (TX-22, FL-16, and OH-18). I also figure in 2 GOP pickups in Georgia.
On the Senate side I see us keeping all incumbents except Chafee. Santorum, Dewine, and Burns will find a way to win. And I see a Steele upset, a Bouchard upset, and a Kennedy upset.

TN Corker 45 Ford 43
MT Tester 46 Burns 43
MO McCaskill 46 Talent 43
VA Allen 47 Webb 43
NJ Menendez 45 Kean 42
OH Brown 48 DeWine 40

Well, I can give you a range and that's all:

Senate: -3 (Santorum, DeWine, Chaffee) to +1 (2 winners from Kean, Steele, Dewine).

House: Who knows, so many factors. The blogging caeser says -20. Figure a few of those flip for GOTV and we're talking ... oh ... -14.

For all we know, that might give us a house flip if someone decides to switch parties.

Republicans definitely will lose Senate seats in Ohio, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania, and probably Montana. Missouri and Tennessee are probable holds, and will determine who gains the majority. There is a small chance Democrats will fall in Maryland and Washington, in which case a Montana, Missouri or Tennessee loss (in order of likelihood) will be offset.

On the House side, I have accepted the RCP top 20 list and seen small movement back toward GOP incumbents in recent days. Oddly, the Foley seat looks like it can be held despite the recent court ruling, and Reynolds and Price appear safer now. This is stll fluid and I thought it would be locked down this week. It won't be, and this is where GOTV will matter.

Finaly analysis: nothing will happen on domestic issues like taxes, immigration, and entitlements, and the majority will matter only when it comes to money allocated for the Iraq war.

House -10 GOP
Senate -3 GOP

But I'll be staying up all night to see how it actually turns out...

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Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same. -The Fray, "All At Once"

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Internet member since 1987
Member of the Surreality-Based Community

My gut is feeling somewhat ptimistic this morning:

Senate -3 Pa, Oh gone. RI--no loss there--gone. Va, Tn, Mo, Mt holds.

House -17.

Talent holds

Congress:

Senate: -2
house -10

We hold both houses...and the Dems heads explode...really this time. Effects their whole orginization and fund raising.

Just as every cop is a criminal, and all the sinners saints - Sympathy for the Democrats

Senate: -4
House: -13

...leaving GOP just barely in control of both House and Senate for 2 more years. But then I expect us to lose at least one of those two in 2008, although I'll stick my neck out and predict we'll keep the White House.

It scares me to see the myopic optimism on this site. It makes me doubt pretty much all of the posts now. I come here for expert analysis, not just wild guesses and drinking the koolaid.

I don't see how it is possible to lose less than 13 in the House, and lose 5 in the Senate. Please tell me which Senate seats we win!

We win Virginia and Tenn. and possibly Missouri. Losing Maryland, NJ, Ohio, PA, MT, RI.

We have already lost THREE seats before the votes are even counted (Ney, Delay and Foley seats in OH, TX and FL). Moe thinks we will lose only 4 more than that?!! Even Rove doesn't think that!

United States Air Force
Cross Into the Blue

my prediction when we did this a month or two ago was
Senate: push
House: -3 or 4

today, I say
Senate: -2 (PA, RI, OH, and either NJ or MD change hands)
House: -8

but I think it will improve in the last two weeks to close to what I projected way back when.

it's slipping away from the Dems, folks. whatever illusions they had of winning VA or TN have vanished. MO and MT are starting to break back to the Rs. OH, PA, and RI probably will too, though I don't know if they can close all the gap. WORST CASE SCENARIO in the Senate is -3, which is what I've been saying for over a year, and I think it WILL be better than that.

In the house, there are perhaps around 20 races where the Dems have polled ahead, but only about 3 where they run ahead by 5 or more points, and about 10 with margins of 3-5. The Dems will be doing good to win half of this latter group. WORST CASE SCENARIO in the House is the Dems stealing maybe 12 Rep seats, but they're not likely to hold every single one of theirs either. I'd put the most dire loss at -10, and again, I think it WILL be better than that.