The Landslide Has Been Disconnected
Or is no longer in service
By Robert A. Hahn Posted in 2006 — Comments (19) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Donald Lambro, in today's Washington Times, brings news that he calls "Republicans gain in midterm polls." It seems that Speaker Pelosi might want to put the new office curtains on hold.
The big issue this November is of course control of Congress. At one time conventional wisdom called for the usual, semi-annual, Great Democratic Victory in which a humbled GOP would once again learn its place in the American political landscape. There would be the usual Democratic rout, with Great Victories in both the House and the Senate. As time wore on, the wisdom sounded more like, "Well, maybe not the Senate."
Maybe not the House, either.
More below...
In fact this year's Great Democratic Victory is shaping up to look a lot like the 2002 Great Democratic Victory and the 2000 Great Democratic Victory, both of them scripted by Peter Benchley. He's no longer available, so this year the Democrats hired George McGovern.
Top election forecasters have pointed to an anti-Bush and anti-Republican "wave" that they predict will return the Democrats to majority power in the House, but Mr. Zogby said, "I don't see the landslide that others are seeing. That doesn't mean it can't materialize, but as of today, it's not happening and this is mid-September."
Other things are happening.
National preference polls on the so-called "generic ballot" question -- which party's candidate voters say they would choose -- show Republicans have narrowed the once-substantial lead Democrats held and are now trailing them by three percentage points, independent pollster John Zogby said Friday.
What's happening? Gas prices are down, the stock market is up, consumer confidence is "skyrocketing," and inflation fell for the second month in a row.
On top of that, President Bush has gone on a very visible media offensive concerning the highly unpopular war in Iraq. In fact, the more he talks about it, the more unpopular it becomes. For somebody. Apparently not for Republicans, though:
a separate Zogby poll showed that Republicans in three high-profile Senate races -- in New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Ohio -- had improved their poll numbers significantly in just the past week or two.
Much of the party's gain was the result of Republicans coming home to their party as Mr. Bush focused on the issues that most deeply divide the country -- Iraq and the war on terrorism.
Nothing is in the bag yet, but it appears that rumors of the GOP's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
« When Negative Ads Backfire — Comments (4) | Coming News — Comments (11) »
The Landslide Has Been Disconnected 19 Comments (0 topical, 19 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
but he is not even close to being on board on a lot of issues conservatives hold dear. The reason Kean will win is because the big question in NJ is will Menendez be indicted before or after the election.
Kean comes off as squeaky clean whereas Menendez reeks of Hudson County Political Machine oil. The question is will the NJ Democrats pull another Toricelli, replacing the candidate with someone else at the last minute? My guess is yes and the dems are already talking about possible replacements.
I don't know about MD but NJ is definately going Kean's way.
makes me just want to holler "that's not fair" but in reality it is just New Jersey.
Can Kean beat whatever replacement they come up with, or will it be a repeat of the Toricelli thing all over again where you just need the D by your name to win?
only because any Dem replacement won't have the name recognition that he has.
The problem with NJ is that the population is pretty old. When the Torch bowed out and Lautenberg took his place a third of the population thought Lautenberg was the incumbent even though he was out of office for four years. But I doubt anyone else can pull that off.
Jim Florio, who is admired by the elderly, is out of the picture. There doesn't seem to be another Dem with that kind of name recognition.
Unless Kean does something really stupid (and he's come close - he's losing conservatives by the bus load with his flip flop on immigration and his remark that Rumsfeld should resign), he can win this.
There's a little-known provision of NJ election law that will allow the Dems to nominate Lautenberg for this seat, too.
"Every time some nitwit college student burns a flag on camera, that's one less idiot who can ever run for public office." - Crank
Could Lautenberg resign from his seat, win the other one, and then Corzine appoint Menendez for now?
From the 17th Amendment:
When vacancies happen in the representation of any State in the Senate, the executive authority of such State shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies: Provided, that the legislature of any State may empower the executive thereof to make temporary appointment until the people fill the vacancies by election as the legislature may direct.
...he honestly doesn't seem to want the job. And he could have had it last year.
He's obviously a better choice than Menendez - then again, you could say that about a dead raccoon at the side of the road - but I don't think that Codey's going to agree to this. If for no other reason than the man has a reputation to protect; and we are talking about a fairly dodgy political maneuver, here.
Moe
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
Kean can still win only because any Dem replacement won't have the name recognition that he has.
Unless the Democrats' replacement candidate is former governor Richard Codey, as has been widely speculated. I think Codey would probably beat Kean. Anyone else this side of Bill Bradley, and Kean would still have a good shot.
He likes the position he's in now and is not anxious to leave it. Unless Corzine strong arms him (anything is possible in the state of NJ) I don't think he'll step up to the plate.
When the Dems shuffled Torricelli off the ticket, the first thing Forrester did was whine that it was unfair and try to appeal the ruling. VERY bad call.
Appealing the ruling was sensible, but he should have got some 'independent' organisation to do it.
He should have said it was of no interest to him who the Democrats ran, because he was running and winning on a positive programme (cue talking points on tax cuts, 9/11 etc) and no-one can beat that sort of programme by going back to the past.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
in an accurate sense, without another Lautenberg. Are there any other revered political figures they can pull out of retirement to run for the Senate? Whitman might switch parties if the Dems asked really nice and promised her stuff.
Could've fooled me, that's all.
"I could explain, but that would be very long, very convoluted, and make you look very stupid. Nobody wants that... except maybe me."
So how do Americans feel about the most important issue? Just over half (51 percent) support the U.S. war in Iraq and 44 percent oppose it.
09/14/06 FOX News Poll: 2006 Election Is All About Iraq
Your Word is your Worth, your Worth is your Word
Being across the river from New Jersey gives me the shivers. A lot of bad stuff goes on over in this region that makes me thing that truly conservative representatives are an endangered species in this neck of the woods. I don't need to be reminded of the shenanigans which got NJ the "Lout" in what seems to me to be more Middle Eastern dynastic intrigue than American political process; I fear the same thing happening in my home state at any point.
At the same time, there's the trend of the MSM puffing up their chest and hollering "Republicans are gonna LO-OSE!" all summer long like a horde of sweaty schoolyard bullies who just cornered the weakest nerd in the county. It makes me want to vote against them all the more. May the prediction be reversed once and for all.
--
"Straight Talk Express"? My bum feet! -- Me, on Senator McCain and other "moderates"
[...is that you are not as smart as you think; and that we are not as dumb as you think, either. We know what mobys look like, moby - although I like Bruce Springsteen's stuff, too - so better luck next time. And by "better luck next time" I mean "get a less pathetic hobby". - Moe Lane]
[PS: Blam.]
NJ seems like a great chance for a pick-up, but where is the good news in these numbers:
Talent down 6
Burns down high single digits
DeWine down high single digits
Steele down 7 (new rasmussen)
Chafee down 8 (new rasmussen)
Corker trailing
Minnesota out of play
Michigan out of play
Santorum trailing
It looks to me like a loss of 4 Senate seats this year, which isn't a disaster, but very poor nontheless.
and aginst all the liberal, leftwing, multi-culturalism and victimhood tripe and we would pickup seats.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
and let the rest of the Senate pass the law allowing CIA interrogation of terrorists, then let our GOP incumbents blame the Democrats for obstructing it and jeopardizing American security. Then let's pass the House bill to put up a 700-mile fence along the border, and the elections will take care of themselves.
Besides, if the RNC has $60 million to spend, it's time for some big ad buys in competitive Senate states.
The bad news: Conservatism is hard to sell. The good news is that it works.
There is no reason that we cannot make gains in the Senate this year, but we need a motivated base. just think of all the judges we can get through with more conservatives. Here is my analysis of the Senate as of today.
If the election is nationalized and about national security, then we hold the seat in Montana. I also think we hold in Missouri.
RI seems to be the biggest opportunity for the dems, but it would not be a great loss for Republicans. Still, advantage goes to Chafee.
Ohio and PA are the keys. Assuming we hold TN and VA (i think both are likely), if Santorum pulls out the upset we will gain at least one seat....two if Dewine wines . . .why?
Because I think we will win in NJ and MD.