The Shays/Farrell Rematch - A Statistical Dead Heat
By California Yankee Posted in 2006 — Comments (3) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A new Research 2000 poll finds the 4th district rematch remains a statistical dead heat, with Republican Congressman Shays trailing Democrat Farrell, 43 to 47 percent. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
These results are the opposite of a similar survey last month which had Shays leading by four points.
Respondents said the single-most important issue was Iraq - 33 percent, 16 percent said the economy, 12 percent said health care costs, and another 12 percent said the war on terror.
Those numbers differed according to party affiliation, with the most Democrats - 41 percent - citing the war in Iraq, and the most Republicans - 29 percent - citing the war on terror.
The most independents - 38 percent - also cited the war in Iraq.
Interestingly, 54 percent said Shays' support of President Bush's Iraq policy would have no effect on their vote, and 53 percent said their feelings about Bush's job performance also would have no effect on their vote.
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The Shays/Farrell Rematch - A Statistical Dead Heat 3 Comments (0 topical, 3 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Is a Republican Polling firm I thought?
Though Majority Watch puts Shays ahead by like 9 so I figure it neck and neck right now.
I am up in the Hartford area and following all three contested House seats closely. I am relieved to see a tie here - I have thought that Shays was the most likely to go down of the three. If he is holding even, I like the chances to eek it out through turnout and late deciders going for the "guy they know". Farrell is a good candidate, and the drive-by media has been cheering her own, but Shays has been extremely tenacious.
If the three CT House races go into our column, next Tuesday might be a good night, after all. As it stands now I feel Simmons will definitely win and the other two are genuine toss-ups.
seems to me, R2000 is a very liberal leaning poll along the lines of Charle Cook's Constituent Dynamics. Is the race tight? Yup! However, R2000 has done polling in other races that are at least 3% more Dem (example-MO Senate showing "tied", while others show it as Talent +2 or 3).
Sitting out is a vote for KOS.