The Turn of the Tide
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (77) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Though you would not know it from the Newsweek or Time polling of the generic ballot, there appears to have been a significant shift in the mind of the electorate since John Kerry opened his mouth.
I've been on the phone with campaigns around the country this weekend and there are a lot of upbeat people who, two weeks ago, were ready to commit Hari Kari. Both Washington Post/ABC and Pew have picked up a sizable shift to the GOP in the past several days. Likewise, Jim Geraghty notes that Mason-Dixon, one of the most reliable polling companies in the nation, has detected shifts to the GOP. John Kyl is up 8 points, Burns is tied with Tester, Corker is beating Ford, DeWine has closed into the single digits, and Chafee is beating Whitehouse.
We're all waiting for the Gallup Poll numbers to be released tonight to see if Gallup too is picking up this shift. It even appears I'll owe Shelley Sekula-Gibbs an apology for jumping ship as it appears she just might crush Nick Lampson. And Joe Negron? He too appears to be winning. Seats the GOP was prepared to write off have come back and seats the Dems never doubted are in play -- like GA-8 and GA-12.
The tidal wave against the GOP appears to have been more a fart in the bathtub and this now is the turn of the tide.
UPDATE: The Gallup Poll is now out and has the Democrat lead falling to 7 points ahead of the GOP. The good news is that it has fallen. The bad news is that in 1994, the Republicans had a 7 point lead in the same poll.
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More phone calls tomorrow night?
Donate more $$$? If so, to whom?
I'm listening!
"Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?" (Macaulay)
That's my recommendation. Talent is probably in a situation where he needs it more than Steele does.
For the Recount Fight, dontchaknow.....
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it"-Winston Churchill
2006, 2004, 2002, 2000: Bush always closes out strong and carries the GOP past the finish line.
I don't think at this stage anyone can tell what will happen.
Just remember, whatever happens it will be neither as good or as bad as many make it out to be.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
word is they've spiked it, and will keep polling tonight (guess they didn't like the results. Rumor was it was down to +5 Dem)
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
republicans are going to view this election like a presidential cycle and go to the booths accordingly
the dems on the other hand are viewing this as just another mid-term... to there detriment imo
"The Road To Freedom Is Seldom Traveled By The Multitude" Madhouse Thought
This is not the first time I've seen that idea expressed here (I think the first time was attributed to Hugh Hewitt, but I'm not sure about that). I don't think it can be true, just thinking about that possibility makes me smile broadly.
So I won't count on it, but if somehow it comes true I'd be thrilled.
--
If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
"The Road To Freedom Is Seldom Traveled By The Multitude" Madhouse Thought
Now I hear they are out, and show the Dems up by 7, down from 13.
If this is at all true, it means that I (we?) must triple our late efforts to capitalize on this historic opportunity.
The "analyst" in me is fascinated in wondering, IF this is true, to what extent it is the base "coming home", the Kerry Bump, or (the Limbaugh Theory), pollsters getting religion late after being in the tank for the Dems much of the year.
But no time to coast or analyze. As it is there is so much up in the air. Let's hope the word goes forth - and the 72 Hour Plan becomes a Dem Nightmare!
Link to results. I think this is the correct poll.
"Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House," says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive.
What's more, President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.
A Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. "It's gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance," says Andy Kohut, director of the center.
I am really hoping ro keep the Senate more then anything! Erick is there any truth to the rumor that JP Stevens will step down soon? Getting a majority on the SCOTUS would cement Bush as an all time great POTUS!
So long as the Republicans hold the majority by five seats, Stevens stays put until they pull him off life support.
If we ever get a Dem president with a Dem Senate, Stevens resigns immediately.
Chance varies linearly between the two points.
...and I have a blog up about it.
The Redhot Streiff posted has scrolled off, but I cited it and the original source material about Justice Stevens being seriously ill and probably having to step down by the end of this year.
This is crucial to keep in mind. We need to keep the Senate at all costs, and we need to demoralize the Democrats as much as possible in this election. The Supreme Court is in play.
Is great news! Only 7 point difference. We are on a roll, and this is without Saddam's verdict factored in!
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Ender, Exactly! This is a snapshot..the numbers are still moving in our direction.
Polls: Dems lead shrinking but still strong HUH!!!!Just think if the Rep. were up that much & the Dumocrats cut into their lead that much the drive by media would be having orgasms.But since it's the other way around it's still strong lead. lol!!!!!!!
I was volunteering today at harris county GOP HQ and we got a visit from governor perry. long fall for me, in '06 i'm 3 feet from the governor. in '04 i was 10 feet from the president, but i've digressed.
the county GOP chairman said Texas and Houston are polling ahead with the GOTV effort and Texas is looking good for tight races(i.e. Shelley).
Make Hey on Monday !
You can't compare 94 and 06. Polling has changed and so has our GOTV.
Also, the dynamics are entirely differnt. We had the CWA.
What do they offer....
In '04, the final Gallup had the Democrats up 1, while the Republicans beat the Dems by 3 points in the generic vote, and won 53% of the seats (6 point margin).
See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/generic_vote.html
SO, I think it's likely the Dems. will win the generic vote by roughly 3 points, and that they win control of the House, but only barely
BUT, a bare Republican majority in the House, as well as the Senate is now possible according to a reasonably optimistic scenario.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
We are trending well and may be closer in 48hrs. Don't forget the 72hr GOTV, ROVE style, that did not exist in 1994.
In 1994, about 100 seats were in play. GOP picked up 54 seats or a little over half.
In 2006, about 20 seats are truly in play. DEM sould pick up to 8-11 seats, a lot but no Majority.
A good place to be for a superior GOTV. Call, flush, call flush on election day.
PEW is +4pt, ABVC/WaPo is 6pts & Gallup is 7Pts.
Tomorrow night will tell a great deal
The Seante is safe at 52to54 seats GOP with current trends.
Keep the faith and GOTV next 50 hrs!
New to this site but fired up by tonight's news and had to jump in! Not only do these last three polls show tremendous momentum (don't pollsters always prattle on about trends and "movement"?), a number of Senate and even House races are shifting as well--all at the right time. And, according to the release, this Gallup poll spanned part the weekend, "Thursday through Sunday." We also now what "they" say about weekend polls favoring Dems. No time to slack off--now it's time to ram this thing home.
Actually, he DID say it again today! Catch it on C-Span if they rerun it and show it to your friends. (I can't find it.) He was in great form!
The GOP website has a good Bush stump speech, too:
http://www.gop.com/Multimedia/MediaPlayer.aspx?ID=1144&TypeID=2
The Democrats have run a no-issues campaign designed by their empty suits, often dependent on sleazy tactics.
The public's perception is growing that the Dems are trying to beat something with nothing. And who wants to vote for nothing?
Everyone on the panel agreed the tide was turning in favor of the Republicans, but when making their predictions they said we would lose the House and the Senate would be close.
they have the virus that permeates is Washington.that is their fatal flaw
Remember that even if the numbers do bear similarities to previous elections, the key here is voter turnout, and Republicans mop the floor with the Democrats on this point. I am quite optimistic about our chances on Tuesday, and I live in the blue state of Illinois.
But remember, the GOP overperforms in generic balloting. This was true in 1994 as well, when a 7-point lead turned into a 10-point national victory.
Given how many places Ds are attacking, it is entirely plausible that a 4-point win could result in few seats. Think of it this way, in a 50-50 House, if they get 100% in their districts, and 49% in all ours, they get 74% of the vote, but still lose the House. Since we aren't playing much offense, and are playing defense in places like NE-03 and ID-01, I wouldn't be surprised if they got a big national vote but didn't take the House.
Wouldn't that make Kos's head explode?
he said he's getting emails from people who are angry at all the Republicans political phone calls asking them to vote. It's turning them off
they are all real republicans... right.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
"The Road To Freedom Is Seldom Traveled By The Multitude" Madhouse Thought
As a lifelong Democrat, having voted for every one of their Presidential candidates since Bryan, I'm appalled at the negative campaigning this cycle.
I could tolerate their abandonment of my core issues: free silver, free trade, and the 60 hour work week. But thanks to the Foley stuff, they've lost my vote!
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
In the space of one hour, we received six calls (four automated). And we're in Arizona, in a CD whose race is not considered one of the "hot ones."
I hope we're not overdoing this.
"Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?" (Macaulay)
I've had at least 15 calls today, all automated. I'm just letting my daughter answer the phone now.
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
I'm hearing this a lot. I just got sent this story on it.
Guys, if someone starts shouting at you, remember to take their details and pass them back up the line, to try to get them taken off the list/s. We don't want to make people angry. A girl I know was crying from being shouted at by angry voters. It doesn't have to be this way, so make sure you know what you're doing, and make sure you get those angry folks on the 'do not call' lists, or however things these things are organised for you.
I have only been left one voice mail, from National Right To Life. What do you people have that I don't? I never answer my phone so I may be missing a lot.
In my experience at the phone banks at county GOP HQ, I have not encountered the problems mentioned. Are other people being swamped with calls? I assume the people here would be on top of most GOP call lists.
...in the KY-6 special election in early '04, to fill Gov. Fletcher's old seat. GOP candidate Alice Kerr relied very heavily on automated calls on the last few weeks of the campaign, and in so doing managed to thoroughly piss off a great many Kentuckians, who do not appreciate repeated calls during dinner... The overabundance of calls became an issue in itself. This conservative district is now represented by liberal Democrat Ben Chandler.
It is possible to overdo it. While I have no doubt that some of those contacting Drudge are 'bats trying to play a psychout game, I'd hesitate to assume that they all are.
"the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters."
That latter number says it all. Notice how that a mere 1 point out of margin of errort?
Dudes and Dudettes we are about to prove all the liberal pundits wrong.
I'm now predicting we keep the House by a couple seats to 4 or 5, and keep the Senate by 53 or 54.
This is sooooo exciting.
Eric Dondero
www.mainstreamlibertarian.com
ABC/WaPo D+6%
PEW D+4%
Gallup D+75
AVG Thurs - Sunday is 5.67%
About in the margin of error.
DEMs would need 10-12pts to offset the GOP GOTV in many races.
At this level, the DEMs may move margins closer in most competitive house races, but to actually take a lot of seats the odds are getting slimmer. There are about 20 house seats in play, including three DEM held seats. The two Ga are gone to GOP now.
Notice how noone is talking about the control of the Senate any longer. GOP 52-54seats +Lieberman causcusing with GOP on organization. He will get a couple of committee charimanships.
Tonight, even Pelosi is making excuses for her not being Speaker come next session. Apparently, it's Diebolds fault!
The screams of diebold are going to be deafening...
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Which will be funny, because right now we're looking at the possibility of a near-sweep for Republicans statewide in California, with only Jerry Brown and Dianne Feinstein bucking the Schwarzenegger tide.
And in California, to my knowledge we don't have electronic voting anymore. I think Kevin Shelley decertified Diebold's machines.
--
If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
hanging Deibolds or something. You hold the machine up to the light and you can deduce what the voter intended and what they had for breakfast.
John
--------
Democratic civilization is the first in history to blame itself because another power is trying to destroy it.
... Jean-François Revel
Just like there doesn't need to be actual racism for Dems to accuse us of racism, there don't need to be electronic voting for dems to howl about Diebold.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
in the state so what's your problem? ...
John
--------
Democratic civilization is the first in history to blame itself because another power is trying to destroy it.
... Jean-François Revel
has become shorthand, so will Diebold become shorthand for election fraud :-)
John
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Democratic civilization is the first in history to blame itself because another power is trying to destroy it.
... Jean-François Revel
developing....
Funny thing though...
After election day, that headline would still be the big story on most MSM outlets, even if the GOP ended up winning the day before.
One excuse is the claim of "robocalls" that are supposedly angering voters against Democrats.
Democrats can't handle the truth about their dark ways, ya know.
Expect them to make up stories with slashed tires and all sorts of lies to "explain" their losses.
Several reasons why they are not the same.
1. 1994 was pre-pro-GOP gerrymander. The 2000 redistricting makes Republicans a hell of a lot safer than the Dems were in 1994.
2. Since 2000 (at least) the Dems have been winning majorities on the generic ballot. The problem for them is the "wasted vote" paradox. They run up huge majorities in inner cities, but lose closer elections in the suburbs. Thus, the inner-cities votes are wasted. However, the Dems insist on having those districts, often because they are minority-majority districts.
So a 7 point lead by Dems is indicative of a ripple, not a tide. however, given the fact that unlike in 1994 when over 50 seats were needed for the House takeover, now only 15 are needed. So it may be enough.
"However, the Dems insist on having those districts, often because they are minority-majority districts."
The Ds do not insist on those districts. They are required by the Civil Rights Act. FWIW, Rs overwhelmingly supported the Civil Rights Act 40 years ago and on both of its renewals. Cynically, one could say Rs and black leaders team up to pack a lot of Democrats into minority-majority districts which then leave a lot of lean R districts around them.
"The Road To Freedom Is Seldom Traveled By The Multitude" Madhouse Thought
I earned a degree in Communications/Journalism in 1991, and I have never, ever seen the degree of media cheerleading for one political party as I have in the 2006 election cycle.
It has been the most unprofessional news coverage filled with questionable polling methodology, one-sided reviews of candidates and races, media attacks on religious voters and constant negative Iraq news with no consideration of the positive news from both there and Afghanistan.
In short, we have a bunch of people in our mainstream news media (old media) who have suppressed, maninuplated or created stories with the hope of helping one party over the other because of their sympathy for that party. These people aren't journalists, they are operatives and hacks. They can claim to be unbiased all they want, but they are simply liars. Anyone who watches their television or reads a newspapers can figure this out.
It is one big reason that I am voting REPUBLICAN on Tuesday and also why I believe that the GOP will hold both chambers of Congress at the end of the day. America can't afford to listen to leftists propaganda being paraded as news, and people who are paying attention know it.
GO VOTE ON TUESDAY AND DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE MEDIA SPIN.
Send a message to CNN, NBC, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, the Washington Post, NY Times and other liberal outlets. Give them all a big middle finger on 11/7 and make sure they see it when the vote returns come in that evening.
We MAY be avoiding a landslide, but we are not avoiding a loss of seats. Even if we make it through with slim majorities, we need to remind our legislators what got them in trouble to begin with: the abandonment of true conservative principles.
A win is a win, and there's no downside to one.
To go blame casting BEFORE the election while saying we MAY yet win, is just silly.
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If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
No, we're actually winning seats. If we 'keep' the house, then that means we won more of the 435 House elections than the Democrats did. That's a win.
As for the Senate, if we win a lot of the close races, and keep control of the Senate, then the Democrats will have failed to meet their objective. That's a defensive win.
--
If you're seeing shades of gray, it's because you're not looking close enough to see the black and white dots.
if many seats are lost, but we maintain a slim majority... expect to see a serious leadership challenge.
The good news is that it has fallen. The bad news is that in 1994, the Republicans had a 7 point lead in the same poll.
The generic poll almost always favors the Democrats, usually by 5-6 points. So when Dems lead by 7 in the generic, they're really 'leading' within the margin of error. When Republicans lead by 5, they're really leading by double digits.
While I'm definitely voting Republican tomorrow, I'm not going to crow until I see the returns on Wednesday and see to it that the Republican majority in both houses is still intact (and hopefully much stronger than even the most optimistic projections have anticipated). For me, it isn't just the Boston Brahmin's rather mush-mouthed comments, but those of Murtha, Reid, Pelosi, Biden and the other Leftist Democrats who've been jumping all over G W Bush and his administration. It's been the MSM pumping itself up like a blowfish over what it projects (hopes?) to be a glorious return of the Democrats to power and whatever that brings (Bush, Cheney, Rumsfield and Rove being frog-walked?). It's been about nearly 3,000 civilians being slaughtered by foreign terrorists on our own soil and the need to take out the breeding grounds for those forces before another Bin Laden takes shape and starts pounding his chest about toppling the "Great Satan". (Who's the Great Satan here, anyway?) It's about ensuring that the American economy remains as robust and open as possible, with less of the fat-headed taxation and meddling that Leftist Democratic policies have gotten us over the past 40-odd years. It's about turning back the tsunami of "Political Correctness" that has paralyzed our common sense and given us the bulk of the problems that we face today (lax punishments for serious crimes, a near-surrender to an invasion by illegal aliens, supression of common sense and Judeo-Christian values in Academia, MSM and entertainment becoming a cesspool of PC stereotypes in the name of "diversity", etc).
While the Republicans have made some serious mistakes in the past few years, one should realize that the Democrats are still the same crowd that tried to foist the old "we're New Democrats" trick on us back in the 1990s. There's no way I'm sitting elections out because of this. At the same time, I could care less what certain other people are talking about doing now; we have to ignore these Doubting Thomases and vote!
This is our last, best opportunity to show the President and our men and women fighting the terrorists overseas our support...
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"Straight Talk Express"? My bum feet! -- Me, on Senator McCain and other "moderates"
If we have a sufficient number of volunteers to make calls, do we need so many automated messages? I think that those messages--along with those from paid callers--get under the skin the most.
Food for thought, starting on Wednesday...
"Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?" (Macaulay)
There has been a Republican resurgence in the last week, but it needs to accelerate to do the trick. If it has peaked, if it was just a wavelet that will recede after having milked the Kerry gaffe for all it is worth, it's going to be a long Tuesday night.
To me, the polls at RealClearPolitics suggest the resurgence was a wavelet that has peaked.
Dick Morris, a sleazebag who makes a better enemy than a friend but who has been more Republican than Democrat lately, has a column calling it a GOP massacre and predicting both houses for the Dems.
In the column, he writes, "First the Republicans lost their virtue; now they'll lose their majority, at least in the House." (The irony of Morris pontificating about other people losing their virtue is not lost on me.)
He predicts two years of investigations and legislative gridlock, all of which hamstrings the Presidency, all of which gives the Osama bin Ladens of the world a chance to recoup and make new plans.
GOTV will make a difference in the close races, and every seat kept is a step forward for 2008, so people should not give up the fight, but it might also be time to start thinking about how to regain that virtue and sense of purpose.
If they get the House and the Senate, they will focus on trying to pass legislation that Bush will veto.
If they get the House only, then that plan won't work so the focus will be more on investigation after investigation.
IOW They'll try to lay the groundwork for a Democratic President in 2008, knowing the next two year would be a waste in terms of getting any lefty laws passed and signed.
So we will have both of them for at least two more years.