The Turning Fortunes of the GOP
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (10) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
RedState has learned that President Bush will swing through Macon, Georgia on October 10th to campaign for former U.S. Congressman Mac Collins. Collins is running against incumbent Democrat congressman Jim Marshall, my former law school professor.
Rep. Marshall had been considered safely ensconced in his 8th Congressional District seat. But, in 2006, the Georgia legislature redrew its heavily gerrymandered congressional districts, making them much more compact and less divided. The result is now an 8th Congressional District that is tilted significantly toward the Republicans, voting for President Bush over 60%. The district stretches from the Republican southern suburbs of Atlanta, down the I-75 corridor, toward the Florida line. The district contains Robins Air Force Base and substantial personnel connected to the base.
That President Bush is willing to spend political capital campaigning in the new 8th CD is an indicator of just how much the GOP's luck has changed. Just three months ago, Mac Collins had been written off. Now the seat is largely in play.
The district is largely new territory for JIm Marshall and also for Mac Collins, who at one time represented parts of the northern end of the new district. This gives Collins the advantage of being the Republican in a race between two unfamiliar men, both of whom can call themselves congressmen. I still think Jim Marshall is fairly safe; however, sources close to the Marshall campaign have said in the past month the campaign has lost the feeling that his re-election was a foregone conclusion.
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The Turning Fortunes of the GOP 10 Comments (0 topical, 10 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Kean looks good and we're hearing good stuff on Steele.
Santorum, Burns, and Dewine all look weak right now.
I can't keep up with all the new gerrymandering. I'm pretty sure I'm still in Charlie Norwood's district but in other cases, it's easy for a representative to end up living outside of their district through no fault of their own.
...just found out for sure - by reading this :-) - that I'm not lost in the wilderness of Sanford Bishop's safe-til-he-dies district anymore (thru a combo of moving north one county and having the districts redrawn...
I have no idea what this will translate to come election day, but I'm seeing tons of Collins signs, TV ads and direct mail stuff and have yet to see anything from Marshall...the only time I've seen his face are in Collins ads attacking him...hopefully, this will end up meaning more than it probably does...maybe Marshall isn't sure yet exactly where his new district begins and ends either? :-)
david
...and I think that it is very telling that Jim Marshall's ads (with no mention that he is a democrat)are appearing EVERYwhere in my district.
And although I hate to admit that I live in Sanford's safe-til-he-dies district, I am proud that we have a great "kid" running against him this year. If you can't vote for him, at least pray for him! Maybe one day we will be able to run Sanford off!
...it's nice to see that someone is at least making the effort against Bishop...IIRC, haven't there been years when the Republicans didn't even field a candidate against him? david
...was the last to go up against Sanford, I think. That must have been in 2000? I thought that he had a good shot but the way the lines were drawn then it would have taken a miracle. The 2nd district has been redrawn now so that it is a more evenly split between Rep and Dem so maybe in the future we can have a real representative from our district.
revealing where the President is going to be this far in advance was permissible by the Secret Service.
Late last week Rasmussen changed three senate seats from "toss-up" to "leans Democrat", and Santorum's momentum has stalled. Both are surprising given the surge you correctly point out. Perhaps the hole was simply deeper than we had previously acknowledged here.
But gas prices may start with a "1" on Nov. 8 (which to the less attentive out there is an indication of the "good economy" they've been ignoring for 3 years), and there are no tropical depressions on the horizon to dredge up Katrina/FEMA/failed leader stories.
Plus, as sure as the sun will rise, the Democrats will continue to miss the point. Even Kos has expressed dismay on this point.
Interesting year.
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"It is a sordid business, this divvying us up by race." - Chief Justice John Roberts