Those Other Poll Numbers
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Donald Lambro, who is one of my favorite political writers, has some news for all the Doom & Gloomers out there. Things aren't great for Republicans, but they really aren't that good for Democrats right now either -- it's just that the media is not really talking about that side of the polling.
First, there is the right track/wrong track polling we hear a lot about:
An Associated Press-Ipsos poll of 1,001 Americans, including 813 registered voters, conducted last week found that 71 percent think the country is on the wrong track, compared with only 26 percent who say it's going in the right direction.
But then, there is this:
Read on . . .
But an earlier poll of 1,047 Americans conducted for CNN by Opinion Research Corporation from Aug. 2 to 3 drew a dramatically different response when it asked people, "How well are things going in the country today?"
A combined 55 percent said things were going "fairly well" (47 percent) or "very well" (8 percent), compared with those who said "pretty badly" (29 percent) or "very badly" (15 percent).
And if you don't think that is significant, try this one on for size:
"Only 41 percent of Americans believe that Democratic leaders in Congress 'would move the country in the right direction,' " Mark Preston, CNN's political editor, writes on the network's Web site. That is slightly less than the 43 percent of Americans who believe that Republican leaders in Congress 'would move the country in the right direction.' "
Lastly, 41% of independent voters are still undecided. With the Democrats offering no concrete agenda other than "cut and run," the race for November can still be won by the GOP.
(I should add that I expect the majority of undecided voters to go with the Democrats -- if you're still undecided about the GOP after twelve years in the majority, you probably won't choose them in the end -- but with 20% already going to the GOP and more to shift that way, it could be the difference between just losing seats and losing the majority)
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Those Other Poll Numbers 6 Comments (0 topical, 6 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
2006 will have the lowest turn-out (percentage-wise) in a generation, perhaps in a century.
Here's the conundrum for the average "independent voter" (translation: a person who thinks about politics and policy for about 45-seconds once every two years): sure, you may not be thrilled with the direction we're headed, but do you think any of those things will get better if SanFran Nan is Speaker of the House? Really? Any of them?
So, where I would quibble with Erick is not in his general conclusion that undecided voters will break Democrat late, but rather that the net result is they simply will be No-Shows in Election Day.
The net result is that the GOP will lose seats in the House, but manage to (undeservadely) hold a 7-10 seat majority, whereby the Senate will go no more than +/- 2 in any direction.
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"I don't know." -- Helen Thomas, when asked by White House spokesman Scott McClellan, "Are we at war, Helen?"
at this point, and feel like one is as bad as the other, and "lesser of two evils" type voting leads the undecided, non party faithful to be more likely to stay home or at work, rather than vote.
I will vote, even in the lesser of two evils situations, but then I was raised by parents who never failed to vote, and taught the importance of it (even if my mom and dad usually cancelled each others votes), but I know a lot of people who are very apathetic at the moment. Not all that happy with the GOP, but don't see anyting exciting coming from the DNC.
I suspect November this year will be about which party manages to get more of its base to the polls than large turn outs.
I agree with you. I think the real message in the polls is that people are disgusted with the lot of them. It's all bickering, pointless gesturing, symbolism over substance, and pork-barrel spending. Plus we all suspect that half of them have their hand in the till.
The number of people who believe that the Sun will come out and the birds will sing if we elect different politicians is pretty much down to zero.
Drink Good Coffee. You can sleep when you're dead.
me being a “one note Johnny” about the perils of sitting out (which I believe is actually a vote to allow KOS to run the country), I too am disgusted with the whole lot of them in DC. Sadly, I will hold my nose this fall, for two reasons:
1) I don’t want to have KOS running the country while Islamofascists try to kill us.
2) I want to see a meltdown on 11-8-06 by Olbermann, KOS, Lawrence O’Donnell, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, etc.
Yes, I know I should be more principled, and the “we suck less” mantra isn’t exactly a winner; but I just can’t meet my maker knowing that by sitting out, I helped condemn millions around the world to having lunatics running the country, and in essence hurting the world.
but I think the problem is that for them to be on message, that is promoting traditional liberal democrat positions loses them elections.
I admit right now I am extremely frustrated with congress-far more frustrated with congress than I am Bush. Congress seems to busy spending money like it grows on trees, and they are unwilling to really tackle the tough issues but instead waste time with flag burning amendments (and if you are in favor of this amendment, no offense, but I don't see the point, and it seems fairly trivial compared to immigration reform, the WOT and similar issues).
My frustration though, doesn't lead me to believe that democrats would do better, as a matter of fact I am pretty convinced they would frustrate me even more.
I think this dynamic is probably showing up in polls-if a pollster called me today, and asked for my approval of congress, or similar opinions I would answer honestly in the negative, but my feelings are extremely unlikely to transfer into a vote for the DNC, which is where I think the MSM and DNC make their mistake.