Will The GOP Lose the House
Reality Versus The Gut
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (20) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Behind the scenes, a growing number of incumbent Republicans are fearing a disaster in November. A lot are starting to think they will lose the House majority and some privately want the loss, thinking a loss is the only way the GOP will find its way again. The problem will be whether the GOP MOC's think the end of the world has arrive or whether they think there is still a chance to do something about it.
If you only read one thing (besides RedState) today, read Jay Cost. Jay and I are right at the same point. We both think the GOP is going to lose some seats. But we do not see the GOP losing the majority yet. As always, Jay is more articulate than me.
My intuition is that a great deal of summer polling is indeed invalid in this way - because, even though pollsters try to eliminate non-voters from the sample, they are harder to spot so far from Election Day. Almost everybody is "paying attention to the campaign" right now because there is no campaign right now. Almost everybody claims that they will vote right now, but it is easy to claim you will do something when you have 90 days until you actually have to do it. If the pollsters are not spotting the non-voters, any question about party preference in November would probably be invalid in the same way.