Election Guide: November 6 ,2007
School choice, state legislatures, and other good fun
By Adam C Posted in 2007 — Comments (24) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
With polls starting to close... here are the important races to watch tonight. The next story will be for election results.
Tomorrow, November 6th, is election day in some parts of the country. The most important elections from a national standard are:
[UPDATE] Fourth issue added.
1. School Choice in Utah
The state legislature in Utah enacted universal school choice earlier this year providing a voucher to all future students that is larger the poorer the family. The vouchers range from $500 to $3,000. Each student who takes the voucher will save the district over $3,000 to use on the students who choose to stay in the public system. The universal nature of the program scares teachers unions who have poured multiple millions of out of state money to fight parental choice.
Many commentators understand the revolutionary nature of the reforms. Unfortunately, the grass roots support that lead to high public support in the Spring when the legislature passed the reform has fallen under the mass spending by status quo supporters. It is likely that the school choice program will lose at the ballot box in this conservative state. If somehow a surprise victory occurs, it will be a banner day for education and progress.
2. Governors in MS and KY
In MS, Gov. Barbour (R) is expected to win a strong mandate for a second term in a state still dominated by Democrats in the legislature. Gov. Barbour has been a big part of the Republican trend in local and state races and he recently secured endorsements from several major Democrats including several black leaders. Perhaps Gov. Barbour will use some of his second term to woo religious black voters toward the GOP in MS.
In KY, Gov. Fletcher (R) has been attacked by political opponents on some ethics issues and is behind in polls by about 20 points. It seems likely that Ds will pick up this seat while losing the LA Governorship.
3. State Legislatures
VA: Republicans control the state house 57-40 and there are around 6-10 competitive seats mainly in Northern Virginia. Rs will likely hold control of the House but will lose seats. In the state senate, Rs have a 23-17 lead with 6 competitive races (5R, 1D) mostly in Northern Virginia. If NoVa continues it's trend toward Ds, they could pick up the Senate and get in range of the House. With a D GOV and 2 D SENs after 2008, Virginia is slipping from Republican control.
MS: Even liberal media sites expect Barbour's coattails to help Rs in the state houses. Rs control the Senate 27-25 (after two party switchers this term) and Ds control the House 74-48. It is unlikely Rs will take the House, but the chamber may change substantially.
LA: Term limits hit this term and many incumbents cannot run again in both houses. The first round of elections are not a big change from four years ago. Democrats control both chambers in a state that has trended Republican recently. Party label has always been less important in LA than other states. Thus, some new Ds may be better than some older (pay to play) Rs. It seems likely that Rs will make minimal gains this cycle and perhaps more next cycle but Ds will hold both chambers when Gov.-elect Jindal brings his ethics reforms to the legislature.
NJ: The state senate is 22D-18R (and the house 50-30) so anything could happen, but there is not much written about the dynamic of this election. Gerrymandering and the lack of competitive races have led to predictions of low turnout.
[UPDATE] 4. Pittsburgh Mayor
Mayor Ravenstahl (D) is over his head with the inherited position. The city hasn't had a Republican Mayor since the 1926 election. But Mark DeSantis (R) is showing some surprising strength including several unusual endorsements from the major local papers and a very active Democrats for DeSantis group. This could be a major surprise victory for an up and coming young Republican in a heavily Democratic city. Perhaps a future Giuliani/Riordan type.
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Election Guide: November 6 ,2007 24 Comments (0 topical, 24 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Obviously as a part-time, arm chair analyst, I am not on the ground in any of these locations. So it's good to hear from people who have a closer perspective.
Anyone else who knows of close elections or referenda coming for a vote tomorrow, please put it in the comments.
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Here's a competitive seat chart from politicsnj.com - http://politicsnj.com/files/Prall110407.pdf
Might pick up a few assembly seats, probably going to lose a few senate seats.
I grew up in the 8th district, and I've met our candidate for state senate and one of the guys going for assembly. It'd be pretty sad if we managed to lose those seats. It's one of the safer GOP districts in the state historically, but the incumbent state senator isn't running again because of ethics questions, and the Dem candidate for state senate is a current assemblyman who was a GOPer his whole life.
Crummy part about Jersey. GOPers who make ethics violations get punished by voters. The Dems who do it tend to get away with it, because their districts are safer.
“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07
I have been a lurker to RedState for over a year now, and just decided to officially join, since this is something I could contribute to.
Here in Utah it is looking like a voucher program isn't going to get by tomorrow, mainly because of a huge media campaign by the Teacher's Union and their allies. Ads that say things like "Support public schools, vote against referendum 1" are everywhere, as are commercials on radio and television arguing that private schools aren't accountable to standards, that it would hurt public schools in some manner, that it isn't fair for public funds to go to a private school, poor people wont be able to pay the difference, and that if you support school choice you don't trust public school teachers...
Proponents of School Choice have run ads trying to convince people that it is the right for parents to educate their children as they see fit, that it would help public schools (smaller class sizes, more money for public schools), and that those who are against the program are allied with the liberal teacher's union, and groups like MoveOn.org.
Over $7 million have been spent by both sides of the issue.
Polls show that about 55 - 65% will vote against referendum 1, compared to 30 - 35% in favor. I am still hoping that we can still pull it off.
Even though public schools here in Utah are much better than many parts of the country (With less money). A one size fits all system forced upon parents of children isn't right.
From what I understand, Mitt Romney is held in extremely high regard in Utah, both for his excellent leadership at the Olympics in Salt Lake, and being such a high profile Mormon.
Romney really should have lent his support for the school-voucher program. It would have given him a lot of favorable press nationwide to the conservative base that he needs to win over if he was up against the teachers unions fighting for this.
Even if he just shot a few commercials on behalf of the pro-voucher position, it would have really scored a lot of points with conservatives. We're talking about a few hours of work here.
Even if school-vouchers go down, (and unfortunately it looks like it is) it would have made Mitt look like he's a real conservative willing to fight for important causes.
I'm disappointed Mitt didn't lift a finger to help this important cause in Utah.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
Many of the pro-voucher ads recently have been pointing out that it is supported by Gov. Huntsman and Mitt Romney. However, thats all I have heard about Romney's position.
I was disappointed in Romney for not making strong public statements in favor of this referendum. He could have gotten a ton of free press and conservative street cred by doing so. For that matter, I was disappointed that none of our candidates were very vocal in support of this measure.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
I'd like to think we could win on turn out.
Usually the Teachers Union gets more people to the polls on issues like this though.
I've heard that illegal immigration is a huge issue there and Republicans are making good gains on it. Anybody in Virginia know anything about that?
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
I am really interested to see the results and numbers from Northern Virginia tonight. I think specific candidate withstanding, it will give a pretty good indication of how those areas are trending. With 1 out of 6 votes in Virginia as of the last election coming out of Northern Virginia this region will more and more dictate the direction of the state.
On Tuesday, King County voters will vote on a vital piece of election reform:
Removing the Election Department from the control of the County Executive (invariably a Democrat- and usualy a wacko one at that) and instead making it a seperately elected position.
Hopefully we will finally have a fix to the elcetion mess that dates back to 2004 when Dino Rossi won the election to become Washington's Governor only to have King County Elections steal it from him.
In other news: For the fourth time in as many years the King County Elections Department has failed to get me my ballot on time. When it failed to arrive I made an online request which apparently was lost. When I called for an explanation (spending 2 hours fighting with an automatic response system) they said they would send me another ballot, but they "can't promise [me] anything."
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...and is a good example of why we need to clean our own house. It's too bad that Ann Northup couldn't unseat Fletcher in the primary. This is an election that should be a slam dunk for Republicans, all things being equal. Instead it looks as if we are poised to lose a governorship - chalk another loss up under "corruption".
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
and one which I have been watching for commentary here. Fletcher has been forced to run to the base as a last ditch hope to stop the bleeding, and for once, Kentucky has not responded to the red meat of 2nd Amendment rights, the Ten Commandments, school prayer, and gay rights. At our annual statewide non-partisan political roast in Western Kentucky the governor literally had an 8 foot tall Moses to taunt Beshear, the Democratic candidate.
The gambling issue has also muddied the water a bit, as the various allied faiths take different stances on the issue.
The laugher of the race has been Lt. Gov candidate Robbie Rudolph refering to the Democratic ticket as "San Francisco treats." Now, there are those in the party who might deserve that line, and some who would probably embrace it, but none of whom live or particular could run for statewide office in Kentucky.
Anyway, the race to watch is the Secretary of State race. Trey Greyson is a budding Republican who may be smothered by the collapse of the (R) ticket.
And thanks for the on-the-ground perspective.
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While it's become a reliably red state in national elections, and will probably continue being so, it's still a very, very Democratic state as far as local and state elections go. Think: Louisiana.
I didn't follow the Ernie Fletcher saga terribly closely. But it looked a lot like a railroad job by an ambitious Democrat Attorney General (Greg Stumbo) more than anything. And he can do that and get away with it because the Dems hold most of the reins of power there and long have.
I can't answer your question why Northup didn't beat Fletcher in the primary. I was surprised by that and don't really know what happened. But Fletcher's going to get creamed tonight.
what's interesting to me is that, as far as i know, fletcher hasn't ran any ads on television while it's impossible to turn on the tv without seeing an ad for beshear. now that is just speaking for my market anyways, it could be different for other areas of the state.)
but yes, it is a shame that northup couldn't win the primary.
...to Fletcher.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I'm not from KY, but from what I understand, what basically happened is that Northup wasn't well known outside of Louisville, and that she was negative right out of the box against Fletcher, and that for far too much of the state, all they saw is a "moderate" Republican from a "liberal" city beating up on "conservative" Fletcher. At least that was the narrative that Fletcher was able to sell.
I really can't help but wonder why Fletcher didn't just retire. It was obvious that it was going to take an act of God to save him for over a year. I'm guessing he had too many yes men around him, that's what got him in trouble in the first place.
Jindal/Palin '16
politicians (especially republican ones) based out of louisville tend not to do well in statewide elections.
Some of the recent reportage on RedState led me to believe that the GOP would pick up the Pittsburgh mayor seat from the 26-year-old troublemaker.
"I can say - not as a patriotic bromide...that the United States of America is the greatest, the noblest and...the only moral country in the history of the world. - Ayn Rand
You missed a competitive state senate district in VA (the 20th).
http://www.roanoke.com/politics/wb/138406
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---