Redstate

Fletcher's been pretty thoroughly tarred with corruption charges, and put up a pretty anemic defense the whole time. There's certainly been plenty of effort into making those accusations stick, and I guess this is the payoff. (I don't expect anything Beshear will get like the level of scrutiny Flether's had.)

Can't say boo about his advertising, though, since I gave up on the paper and 90% of TV.

One of the biggest disadvantages to having governorships flip Democrat recently is that it creates a whole new slate of future candidates to run in Senate races.

He'll be 71 when he's done with 2 terms. Mongiardo is more of a problem.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

Looks like the lack of Republican turnout has hurt the down ballot candidates as well. We're getting trounced in the Treasurer, Attorney General, and State Auditor races.

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Sorry, about that. Here's a link thats been giving very quick updates tonight: http://www.wishtv.com/Global/link.asp?L=277502

Looks like Republican Greg Ballard is up 52-45 right now, with 75 percent reporting.

813 of 914 precincts reporting (89 percent)

Republican Greg Ballard -- 71,964 (50.4)

Democrat Bart Peterson -- 67,656 (47.4)

Property taxes are a huge thing right now in Indiana, so what does the Democraticly Controlled City Council do? Raise Income Taxes. Now to be fair it is 15 to 14 on City Council but still. Former Mayor Peterson (race was called) wasn't a horrible mayor, his goal was to reduce crime, increase education, and stay within the budget, but he was an idiot politically.

Weeks ago I called this for the Republicans.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

Called with 94% reporting:

Greg Ballard 77,026 51%
Bart Peterson 71,699 47%

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Wow, that is impressive. MSM coverage.

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I haven't followed the Indianapolis Mayoral race so I don't know all of the dynamics in play, but might this bode well for Wayne Harmon, who is challenging Julia Carson in the 7th? The first time to do something is always the hardest, and some voters might be a little less reluctant to pull the lever for a Republican next year now that they have some experience.

www.republicansenate.org

The vote here was very much a protest vote. I disagree with HoosierLife--Peterson was awful, and the City-County Council was worse.

On the other hand, I don't think this is an indication that we have become a Republican town. IN-7 will depend largely on Julia Carson herself. She has had a LOT of health problems (she has missed the last 6 weeks or so in the House). The question will be if she will try to run again or if she will call it quits, which is possible.

I think IN-7 is in play, but it will not be easy. I also think it is a tossup whether or not that person should run with the tangible support of the Republican Party. Ballard won with almost NO support altogether (and no money to boot).

I wasn't suggesting that it had become a Republican city, just that perhaps some people who hadn't before considered voting Republican might do so.

Also, do you think we have any chance at the seat if Carson retires, or can we only defeat her?

www.republicansenate.org

7.44 percent reporting:

Democrats -

Robin Weirauch, 74.7
George Mays, 25.3

Republicans -

Bob Latta, 45.1
Steve Buehrer, 39.5

GOPer was endorsed by the CfG, if you know? I think it was Buehrer, but I'm not positive on that.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

Yes, it was Buehrer who got the endorsement. Latta voted for Taft's tax increases in the state legislature.

It's looking like Bob Latta is in good position to grab this seat, with 3 other Republican candidates seemingly drawing from Steve Buehrer.

With 31 percent reporting:

Latta - 13,843 (54%)
Beuhrer - 9,259 (35%)
Hollenbaugh - 1,620 (6%)
Pieper - 893 (3%)
Smitley - 595 (2%)

The Dems:

Weirauch - 9,316 (79%)
Mays - 2,456 (21%)

I had earlier thought the 3 lower-tier candidates would siphon off too many votes away from Beuhrer to give him a chance, but things have changed drastically. Buehrer has narrowed his deficit pretty significantly. Each update has shown him gaining on Latta --

With 74.76 percent reporting:

Latta - 24,114 (43.37%)
Buehrer - 23,036 (41.44%)
Hollenbaugh - 3,162 (5.69%)
Pieper - 3,108 (5.59%)
Smitley - 2,175 (3.91%)

With 85.92% precincts reporting:

Latta, Robert (R) 43.40% 26,577
Buehrer, Steve (R) 41.30% 25,296
Hollenbaugh, Mark (R) 5.79% 3,544
Pieper, Fred (R) 5.61% 3,433
Smitley, Michael (R) 3.91% 2,393

Looks like Latta is going to hold on to win.

Unfortunately, the whiskey never makes the vote count any better. However, the headache afterwards is actually preferable to the results.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

Well, district one isn't improving. Van Drew is now up 56-44% with over 50% of the vote in.

We're up 53-47% though in District 12 with half the vote in. It is our best (only?) pick up opportunity, so it'd be really good to win it. Especially since Dick Codey and a lot of other state Dems poured a ton into saving Ellen Karcher. (This is Monmouth County...I think it's either Chris Smith or Frank Pallone's district)

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

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Half the precincts are in and DeSantis is getting clobbered.

We won the mayor's race in Hamilton Township as well.

So Republicans picked up the 7th (Toms River), 8th (Hamilton) and 10th (Brick Twp.) largest municipalities in the state. Not a bad day at the office.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

I'd like to believe so, but I just don't think it's true. If anything, it would be New Jerseyians=FiCons. The proposition is not a vote on principle but on actually borrowing money. I'd like to think that they are voting it down because it's destructive to human life, but I think it's more likely that they're doing so because they're already overtaxed and don't want to pay any more. That's a perfectly legitimate reason for opposing it, but I don't think it turns them into SoCons.

www.republicansenate.org

Somewhat facetious.

It's still good to see it shot down, although Bergen is still out, and looking at how sorta close Morris was, I imagine Bergen will be in favor of it, so it might get close yet.

And as a fiscal conservative/social moderate, I'd love to take full credit for fiscal conservatives shooting this down, and use it as an example of where we FisCons overlap with social conservatives, even if we don't do it for your principled reason.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

I shouldn't make fun of the guy's name, and I'll trust your judgement on him being a good one hoya, but a Democratic politician named Nutter? it being real just ruins a perfectly good joke.

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www.republicansenate.org

We are not talking about RI here man. This is the deep south which looooovvvvvesss Republicans. You telling me that a "incrediably popular" governor winning with only 56% of the vote is a blowout. Maybe I just raised my expectations and all, and maybe it is that my mayor is winning with 80% of the vote, but you cant honestly tell me that you didn't expect the totals to be more in the 65% range.

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Notice to All - I am an independent who has voted for Senator Bayh (Democrat) and Senator Lugar (Republican) along with over 60% of my state. You may take what I say with a grain of salt at your own party'

There's still a lot of Dems, especially at the state level. I think 56% is the record for an R for Gov,, set by Fordice in his re-election bid in 1994. State is 36% black, which gives them a pretty solid base.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

Just to add to your point, two of the states four Congressmen are Democrats also,

www.republicansenate.org

For that matter, as of this morning the GOP only has a two seat majority in the State Senate, and is the minority ( 47-75) in the House. (Link)

Assuming, much?

The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!

Bush won 60/40. The state is 34% black, the highest proportion in the country. This is not Utah where an R can possibly win 80%.

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And it's turning out to be one of the premier R victories in the country tonight, with our Pittsburgh chances bursting like a balloon.

Congradulations to Ballard!

My bad for pinning Pittsburgh and not Indianapolis. Whoops.

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Not looking good at all...

With 7.11 percent reporting:

Yes - 10,479 (36.57%)
No - 18,174 (63.43%)

Results:

For School Choice 37%
Against School Choice 63%

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FOR 35%
AGAINST 65%

This is getting toward insurmountable.

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FOR 37.89%
AGAINST 62.11%

This one is over and it wasn't even close.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Republicans do not have a message that works in growing inner suburbs full of young, non-religious professionals. The Democratic rising in NoVa is a big example of this. And from the late 1990s through today, the phenomenon has slowly moved outward. A similar pattern in the inner suburbs of Chicago, NYC, and a few other large cities has occurred.

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“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Without writing too much, I think that social conservatism is not selling in these areas. They may be open to fiscal conservatives, but most recent debates have focused on social issues. These younger, professional districts are quite pro-gay rights and are not particularly pro-life. They may not be leftists, but they don't see much from the Rs that would speak to them.

Perhaps a Rudy style emphasis on anti-tax policies would work. But really it's a bigger problem than just shifting some views.

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...sound like the issues to sell in those areas. At least those are two issues where majorities (particularly "young professionals") identify with the GOP position.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Well, at least those were our two best hits in the (very few) polls I saw this cycle. I guess they weren't enough. In NoVA in the commercials I saw every day during Jeopardy we got hit on "abusive drivers fees" (which I think were bipartisan), being "against a woman's right to choose," and pro tax.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

It's worth noting that we had a successful Club-For-Growth-Style challenge to an entrenched R in a swing district. Tricia Stall was way too conservative for the district, and lost what would have probably been a safe district. Not at all inconsistent with Adam's analysis, but without that we probably would have kept control of the Senate, and had a shot at controlling redistricting again in 2010. Oh well. At least we can pat ourselves on the back for having a more ideologically pure party. I guess.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

But it has a say. Absent this, Dems would have had no say in redistricting (provided Rs won in '09).

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Part of the reason Dems have done so well in CO and in IN is that those maps are actually below-the-radar partisan gerrymanders. Dems used their control of one house to gridlock the process and force the issue to Dem judges, who adopted teh Dem map.

Dems might try the same thing in VA.

Plus the House is up again in 2009; with a Dem Gov. win the GOP would be shut out.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

When is the Virginia Senate up again?

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

How much of the population growth in Northern Va is due to immigration and migration from blue states? What can be done with such an influx of naturally pro-Democrat groups?

First of all, 2 of the 4 seats the Dems picked up were in Tidewater. But I think the key to the Dems success in Virginia is not really social issues, although that plays a part. I really blame Gilmore for tarnishing the state Republican party. He didn't balance the budget, which allowed Mark Warner to come in as the savior for fiscal responsibility. I really think the thing that hurts Republicans in Virginia the sense among independent voters that the state Democrats are more responsible with the states budget. Whenever I say this to non-Virginia conservatives, they always say something like, "But Warner raised taxes! Shouldn't that kill the Dems!" But that line of attack hasn't worked a lick. I'm not saying that Virginians don't hate taxes. They do. But they care more about balancing the budget apparently. The next Republican governor will have to keep this in mind.

But not when they are raised for reasons such as balancing a budget or schools or roads. Not saying there aren't alternatives such as spending cuts that can be entertained, but the idea that tax hikes are an immediate kiss of death, without some other indicia of fiscal irresponsibility, isn't supported.

Also, Warner mostly raised sales taxes, which are largely hidden.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

of a separate post.

Instead of raising the gas tax, Virginia hoped to create revenue by implementing the hated speeding law where a speeding ticket over twenty miles over the limit cost over 1,000 dollars for instate residents. Many Republicans supported the much hated bill which dominated public discourse in Northern Virginia for about a month this summer.

On another note, he generates more excitement among his base than any candidate of either party in Fairfax County. It must be the bowtie.

Or more accurately, I think you've gone too narrow. NoVA has been trending left for a while, not because of libertarian young residents, but because most of the imports are from the Northeast.

If you move a bunch of Jerseyites (my wife's family, for example), a bunch of Taxians (her best friend's family), and a bunch of Noo Yawkuhs (one of my groomsmen's) to an area, to the point that they outnumber the natives, they are unlikely to suddenly start assimilating to the area's pre-existing mores.

Now, I'm open to the idea that young libertines are a significant percentage of all this; but it's the transplant families that have overwhelmed the locals wherever they once were. And those transplants tend to be socially liberal -- hence the split between NoVA and the rest of the Commonwealth.

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Is holding out. With 97% reporting, he is ahead 17,807 to 17,738. The margin is 69 right now.

But with Baker (D) winning in SD39, Ds will take the Senate.

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Dems are pretty well maxed out right now, and are going to have a bear getting anything done (like at the national level) because they have quite a few Dems representing very conservative districts (the so-called Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Yes districts). Long term the GOP would regain the majority on these lines; unfortunately they're not likely to have these lines next time there is a State Senate race.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

...than "social conservatism not playing well". I agree that comparing Kentucky under Steve Beshear to San Francisco is a bit ridiculous - that's just the ploy of a desperate politician pulling out all the stops. From what I heard, reliable conservative GOP voters were staying home in droves because Fletcher was such a baffoon. I'm not saying it is a good thing, him losing, but I don't think this is a case of Kentucky "becoming liberal".

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Yes but Fletcher is a Republican and this only helps enforce the idea that the Republican party itself is corrupt.

The demonization and mischaracterization by the media of the dreaded Religious Right probably is hurting the GOP in the burbs. But other than media bias, there is no good reason that social conservatism should hurt the GOP in the suburbs.

Take the biggest 'gay' issue; the overwhelming margins by which most marriage amendments have passed shows that its not just the hicks and bible-thumpers voting that way. I'll bet a lot of those sophisticated suburbanites who pride themselves on their tolerance and love of diversity also voted for them.

The key for Republicans is to simply enlighten suburbanites as to the truth about the Culture War, namely that its not the Right trying to impose anything on anyone. It is not the Right and the GOP that seeks to impose the value of the South on the Northeast. It is not the GOP that seeks to remove these issues from the democratic process. The truth of the matter is that it is the Left and the Democrats that seek to use a handful of judges to impose their values on the entire nation, and that in a nutshell is the source and cause of the Culture War. W/o such judicial activism, each state would be free to chart its own course with social issues.

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States are already charting their own courses in regards to social issues regarding 'gay' issues. What exactly is the GOP offering that is different than now?

IIRC, the anti-same-sex marriage amendment in VA lost in NoVa. And I'm sure it lost with the under 30 crowd in NoVa.

And that's not the "biggest issue" to many non-invested voters. Many think the GOP is hostile to gay people. I do think the appearance of intolerance for gays is and will hurt the GOP among young voters (suburban and not suburban).

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Aurelian suggests we need to find a way to educate people about what our message really is, what we want to do for America, or rather, prevent judges and radical activists from doing to America.

And you reply suggesting there are poor perceptions of the party.

So yeah, it seems like there is agreement here.

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The Virginia House of Delegates overwhelmingly passed a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in 2005. When it appeared before the voters in 2006, liberals tried to rally support for it by claiming the law restricted the rights of unmarried straight couples. Gay marriage is a bad issue for the Democrats in Virginia; Kaine opposes it. Republican stances on abortion and gay marriage hurt the Rs with voters they had no chance of winning anyway, in my opinion. And in local elections, neither issue matters to the extent they do in national elections.

To lose a decent amount of senate seats next year for like 85 reasons, and young suburbanites turning on Republicans is like 84th on the list.

Not that it's not worth worrying about as a long term concern, but still.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

Lets just say, from what I've read, she conducted a poor campaign, and Tom Davis hurt her as much as he helped her. He apparently got into a shouting match with Chap Peterson's mother at one point. It was a heated and ugly campaign which harbingers TD's chances next year - if he runs.

She is militantly anti-gun rights. The NRA and local Virginia gun rights groups endorsed Peterson. She also brought in Michael Bloomberg to "help her". Wow, does she know ANYTHING about Virginia?

Molon Labe!

This cycle there are a lot more Republicans than Democrats up for re-election (or retiring) this time around. That inherently tilts the field toward the Democrats a bit. It doesn't guarantee losing seats, but it makes it harder to gain them, that's for sure.

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If everything, and I mean everything, went well, Rs pick up 2-3. If everything goes badly, Ds pick up 7-10.

If the election were today, Rs lose VA, NH, CO, and NM. MN, OR, and LA (D) are tossups. So Rs lose 3-6 seats.

AK, KY, ME and TX could become competitive; all are R seats.

Republicans are not popular right now and there has not been much change from 2006 to 2008 in the public's perception of the party.

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...I wouldn't read too much into it. In the 1980s and 1990s Virginia had Democrat governors, and Democrat Chuck Robb won re-election in the GOP landslide of 1994. Tom Davis's wife was attacked by the NRA, which is probably close to a kiss of death in VA.

Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather have the GOP in control, but these things come and go.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

Also, if you look at these results and the NJ results combined, it looks like the Dem wave of 06 has crested. Yeah, we lost the VA Senate (and lost a seat in the NJ Senate - gained a few house seats in NJ) - but the gop is a its most unpopular point in years.

It looks like the dems will have a only a one seat margin of control in the VA Senate.

The point is that in '06 we were getting wiped out all over, but in 07, the R's and D's have each had their share of wins and losses (Jindall, Barbour, downticket MS for R's; VA Senate, KY gov for D's). The D's barely eeked out the win in VA -- if the VA Senate election was held in '06, we would have lost 2-3 more seats.

By 2008 we will be back to normal - IT WILL NOT BE A BANNER YEAR FOR THE DEMS. It will be more like 2000. There has never been two wipe out elections in a row. 2008 will be no different.

In 08-

We will come very close to winning back the House.
We will lose 3-4 seats in the Senate.
We will keep the White House if we nominate McCain or Rudy; lose with Romney, And the jury is still out on Thompson.

I voted "yes" on less than a third of the props. Including abolishing the Hides Inspector!

Since voting at Noon, I've been too busy to check the results. My Early Voting period (last two weeks) was spent actually reading the full propositions (not the "abstracts" the Lege puts on the ballot). My wife and I read the issues, made our decisions, and argued out our differences ... then cast similar ballots.

Just so the rest of RedState readers understand the vote ... that 70% figure in your County ... reflected the opinions of just how few Registered Voters?

There are 376,341 registered voters. 28,760 voted. That's a 7.64% turnout.

Turnout was pretty meager ... and 7.64% was kinda high by what the wonderful people who served as my election judges today said ... did your County have other issues on the ballot?

We only had the three propositions for Collin County (roads, parks, and juvenile detention center improvements) and the sixteen state propositions. Other cities had other issues though.

Link?

--Jim
jimmullins.blogspot.com
West Virginia Citizens Defense League
Fred '08

link
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I thought people would GLADLY tax the evil tobacco companies to pay for the health care of the wittle chil'ren. Even in liberal Oregon it goes down and it wasn't even close! That is a big victory in my mind. Also, New Jersey rejecting the stem-cell referendum was another big victory for conservatives.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”