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What to watch for

By Adam C Posted in 2007 — Comments (0) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

RESULTS
Voting closed and early returns and exit polls show:
Sarkozy 30
Royal 26
Bayrou 19
Le Pen 11

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PRE-ELECTION ANALYSIS

France's Presidential system is like Louisiana's (or vice versa) where there is a "jungle primary" for all candidates and then a 2 person run-off. This year there are 4 legitimate contenders for those two spots: Le Pen (far right), Sarkozy (center-right), Bayrou (center), and Royal (center-left).

Polls for the past few weeks have shown a consistent outcome:
Sarkozy 27-30%
Royal 23-25%
Bayrou 18-20%
Le Pen 13-15%

Thus, the most likely outcome is a traditional left v. right between the two major parties in France. Head to head polls show the following likely outcome in a run-off:
Sarkozy over Royal: 53-46
Bayrou over Royal: 58-42 (few data points)
Bayrou over Sarkozy: 53-47

Thus, as most RedStaters probably agree with the Economist's take on the three candidates (bad, worse, and worst describing Sarkozy, Bayrou and Royal respectively), it makes sense to cheer for a Sarkozy v. Royal runoff and a subsequent Sarkozy victory.

Two unpredictables lurk in this election. First, the French polls have underestimated support for extremist candidates in the past. Remarkably, in the last Presidential election far-right National Front candidate Le Pen placed 2nd (behind Chirac) in the primary and made it to the runoff although polls showed him several points behind the center-left candidate Jospin. If Le Pen's support is higher than polls indicate, he could make the runoff again. If that happens, the other runoff candidate is assured re-election. Chirac won 82% of the vote against Le Pen in 2002. Thus, the ideal outcome for a Sarkozy partisan would be for a Sarkozy v. Le Pen outcome although this would also embarrass "tolerant" France for the second straight election to see the openly racist Le Pen make the runoff.

Second, early reports (in French) show high turnout. That should help the mainstream candidates. In 2002, the low turnout helped Le Pen's small but committed voters outvote the mainstream left and make the runoff. At Noon (in France), 31% of voters had voted which is 10 points higher than 2002.

UPDATE: At 5:42 French Time, 74% of voters had voted which is well above the 59% that voted by that time in 2002. This could be the highest number of votes in an election in French history.

Election returns and exit polls should be released around 2 PM Eastern Time.