KY-GOV: Fletcher Defeats Northup
By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2007 — Comments (24) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It would appear that incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher has staved off a primary challenge from Anne Northup, and will face off against Beshear in the general election. This is probably bad news for Republican chances at keeping this seat, as Fletcher has probably been mortally wounded by a series of scandals - at least some of which seem to be efforts at retribution for upsetting the state's civil service system. Fletcher's approval numbers have been in the 20s or 30s this year, and unless something shocking and unforeseen should happen in the next six months, it appears that the parties will trade Governor's mansions in Louisiana and Kentucky in 2007.
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however those words apply to both parties and I will say them here there and everywhere. I believe that both parties are corrupted and the issue at hand is the length of their tenure in any position and you don't see it? Just because madam botox said the words do not take them out of the American lexicon.
It makes perfect sense to focus on what hurt the party most in 2006 and fix it. If we don't fix the corruption, the voters will.
We don't have a chance of keeping this governorship, so we should only focus on the state legislature (and downballot races of course), and have all our candidates distance themselves from Fletcher.
to read that there are more Registered Democrats in Kentucky than Republicans.
I think the Party would be smart to focus from the ground up. Start winning local offices and that paves the way for state-wide offices and then Federal Offices.
We need to constantly be priming the pump for new and dynamic leaders to carry our banner.
Republican Success in Kentucky
* 4 of 6 Kentucky U.S. Representatives are Republican
* Both US Senators are Republican (McConnell is Senate Minority Leader)
* State Senate is Republican
* Governor is Republican
* Lt. Govenor is Republican
* State Secretary is Republican
I think Kentucky is a bit beyond "starting from the ground up"
I was just speaking in general. In 2006, didn't Republicans lose control of the State Legislatures as well as gubernatorial offices?
I'm glad to know Kentucky is solidly red.
I was just a bit worried about the registration numbers. I'm from states where it's not even close with Democrats ahead so I just assumed.
While Kentucky technically has two parties, they really have 3 parties
Republicans, Conservative Democrats, Liberal Democrats
Heck two of the Republican Congressman are in heavy "Democratic" areas of the state. They happen to be where most of the conservative Democrats reside.
The conservative Democrats consistently voting Republican in Kentucky have effectively eliminated Kentucky as a bell weather state in presidential elections.
I would also like to thank the liberal Democrats like Peolosi, Clinton, etc. for pushing the conservative Democrats away from the party. Without their help, Kentucky would not be as red as it is today.
This empowers an already extant Draft Forgy movement, an attempt by Flether's allies to retaliate against McConnell for backing Northup. A primary against McConnell would be terrible for the Party and drain resources that would best be used elsewhere.
He is quite popular in Kentucky amongst Republicans and he and his campaign could easily put the kibash on any primary challenge. Who exactly would back Larry Forgy? Why would KY Republicans want to dump McConnell? He is a solid conservative and a great leader in the Senate. The Draft Forgy movement is nothing more than Fletcher minions upset that McConnell backed Anne Northup (as he should have).
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
If McConnell were as powerful as you seem to think he is, Northup would've won. I'm not saying that Forgy would enter the favorite, but when you have a primary challenge backed by a Governor who just won renomination, you have to take it seriously. Yes, McConnell would remain the favorite for both renomination and reelection, but a Forgy candidacy would be more problematic than you think.
Somebody that McConnell supported losing to an incumbent GOP governor in a primary is entirely different than McConnell himself losing in a primary. McConnell is a 3 term incumbent senator and the minority leader. He is probably the best senate leader the GOP has had in many years. The KY GOP is not going to throw him out. He hasn't done anything to upset KY Republicans.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
The one silver lining I cling to in these cases is that the race is lost by a poor candidate, not conservatism (nothing against Ms. Northup).
Other than the talking heads, I don't recall any d's claiming Liberalism triumphed over Conservatism.
Let's get some good people worthy of the message.
Georgia’s adopted son, Marty Ryall (Campaign manager for Coverdell 98 and Karen Handel 06), appears to have pulled off what I thought was impossible. As the campaign manager for Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher, Ryall has guided Fletcher to a primary campaign win over defeated House Member Anne Northup.
I think the KY rank and file feel that Fletcher has not done anything any KY Democrat governor hasn't done in the last century with regard to patronage hiring, that he has committed no crime, and that he was pursued by an ambitious Democrat Atty. General. And despite his unfair persecution he's been an effective, conservative governor.
Northup was perceived as a political moderate who called for Rumsfeld's firing when the going got tough in Iraq. Not the profile in conservative courage that Republicans wanted carrying their banner in the fall election.
Ok, first for some correction of some misinformation. Fletcher's approval rating is not in the 20's and 30's. Fletcher's approval rating is at 47%. That is the same approval rating that George Bush had we he was reelected. Those numbers held even after Northup threw everything and the kitchen sink at him in the primary.
Secondly, Fletcher's opponent for the fall, Beshear, is a blast from the past. The last time he ran for Governor was 20 years ago. He is a former Lt Gov and Attorney General during some corrupt Democratic administrations. He represents all that was corrupt about previous Democratic administrations. On top of that, his primary issue is casino gambling. Not exactly a popular issue with rural communities in Kentucky. This is also the same guy that McConnell beat like a drum 10 years ago in a Senate race.
Don't give this election to the Democrats just yet.
Was using this survey from March and this one from earlier this month - it appears that the Courier Journal consistently polls him higher than SurveyUSA does. As a non Kentucky resident, I don't have a sense of who is correct, but SUSA acquitted themselves pretty well in the 2006 elections.
In either event, being in the 30s (or 40s) is better than being in the 20s (where he was throughout most of the middle of last year), but still not very good.
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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...
-John Locke
The Courier's poll gives the respondent more options (strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove vs approve, disapprove) which could explain why the Courier's numbers are consistently higher.
Fletcher's recovery to date has been remarkable. The reason Northup was talked into running was because Fletcher was a "vulnerable candidate". Northup ran an incindiary campaign blasting Fletcher at every turn, yet he ended up burying her on election day.
Now he faces one of the best possible matchups possible. An old liberal Democrat that was a major player in a number of corrupt Democratic regimes. I suspect that Beshear's ties to the old party machinery will help Fletcher to counter charges stemming from a bogus "hiring scandal".
On top of that, Beshear's campaign is based completely on the legalization of casino gambling in Kentucky. In the debates all he talked about was Kentucky's need for a "new source of revenue" to pay for universal health care, create new jobs, and pay for education. When asked what he is going to do if he can't get legalized gambling, he just tells people that isn't an option. He will force it through.
The Democrats signed some sort of "non-negativity" pack in the primary which left Beshear unscathed. Of course that also means he wasn't battle tested either. The last time Beshear ran in a general he was completely outclassed by McConnell. Fletcher has proven to be an excellent campaigner, and should run a much better race than Beshear. Which is why I suspect that this race will be very close.
Regardless, I am eager to see what the polls will show when Fletcher and Beshear are matched up head to head.
Leon, Northup ran an atrocious campaign. No bones about it. The fact that Ernie could only muster 50% of the vote as the sitting incumbent is indicative of weakness in his own party.
Of particular danger for Fletcher is the fact that Northup's stronghold is in Louisville, where Democrats must rack up fat margins to win. I'm not sure how much work she will do to mend fences, particularly since the race brought to the surface the schism in the Republican party between the Fletcherites and Mitch's empire. If Beshear bring moderate Republicans into the fold in numbers from Jefferson County, Fletcher is in really deep trouble.
Unfortunately (for me), the above Fletcher support is right that gambling is going to be a major issue, and I'm still not sure how it's going to play. Plus, anything to distract the public from the catastrophe of the second half of the Fletcher administration will work in his favor.
As the sitting governor, Fletcher won't go down easily, and he is certainly fighting for his political life, so this one will not be the route I think you fear it will be. But bfsche is definitely blowing past the systemic weakness Fletcher has both in the party and in the voting public at large. If he can't get over himself and kiss and make up with McConnell, the Darth Vader of Kentucky politics may just as soon let him go down swinging against an admittedly b-list opponent.
The devil take order now! I'll to the throng:
Let life be short; else shame will be too long.
Marty's new to Kentucky, but we sure know him here in Georgia. The man pulls of total coups. Ernie Fletcher was very smart to hire him.
Whenever I think of Kentucky, my mouth starts to water! Gotta love that chicken!
I can't believe they did this to themselves!!!
from the local school board on up lets get rid of this insane culture of corruption.