Redstate

By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2007 — Comments (4) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

The Lexington Herald-Leader is reporting that the Kentucky legislature failed to take action this session to elminate a potential primary runoff in this year's gubernatorial election, meaning that a runoff will be held if no candidate receives at least 40 per cent of their party's votes. I've not seen primary polling yet, but I would imagine that this will have little impact on the Republican side of the race. While Ernie Fletcher has an abysmal 32% approval rating statewide, he still has 46% approval among Republicans. If he tanks, Northup seems to be the logical choice to get his votes; as I don't think that Billy Harper (the third GOP candidate) can get enough traction to make this a legitimate three-way race.

The Democrats, however, have seven candidates in the field, which makes a runoff in their primary somewhat more likely. To be perfectly honest, I don't know a great deal about their field (and again, have not seen head-to-head polling on the Dem primary), so it's possible that Henry or one of the others walks away with it. In any case, with such a crowded field, a runoff certainly seems to benefit the Democrats in this instance, as it prevents a narrow-constituency candidate from getting the nod with 25% of the vote and then getting creamed in the general; whoever comes out will have to have a legitimate statewide appeal.

More updates on this race as information becomes available.