Louisiana Votes: The Results

By Erick Posted in Comments (94) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Copying the last updates to the top:

11:00 EDT: WE CALL THIS RACE FOR BOBBY JINDAL. IT IS DONE. HISTORY IS MADE. BOBBY JINDAL BECOMES THE NEW GOVERNOR OF LOUISIANA WITHOUT A RUNOFF.

11:15 EDT: How bad is it for the Democrats? Even St. Louis Cemetery's numbers are coming in for Jindal. Homer Plessy voted Jindal, but of course he always votes Republican. Marie Laveau voted Jindal. Even Dominique You decided to vote Republican just this once. When the Dems can't even get the dead to vote for them, they're f. . . screwed.

11:33 EDT: One by one, the eleven other candidates are now conceding, starting with Boasso and now Georges. I must stop now as I'm totally hammered and keep writing four letter words into my posts and barely catching them before posting.

BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS!

Now the question is: 2012 or 2016 for the White House.

--------------------------------------------

Early numbers . . . way the heck early numbers put Bobby Jindal in the lead with 62% of the vote. That's only 5% of the precincts, but it is also consistent with a number of tracking polls.

Other races to watch: We want the country music singer Sammy Kershaw to make it into a runoff against Mitch Landrieu for Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne is the man for Secretary of State. Royal Alexander is the AG we need. Bob Odom needs his ass beat down, hopefully by Mike Strain. And Jim Donelon is acceptable for Insurance. BTW, BESE (pronounced "Bessy") is the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education. And you can get the results yourself here.

9:22 EDT: The absentee ballots that are coming in show a massive, massive push for Bobby Jindal. Even in my home of East Feliciana Parish where Lea McGhee, my friend, barber, and registrar of voters (he's a Jack of All Trades who cut Lee Harvey Oswald's hair when Oswald was making a business trip to Dallas back in 1963) is up overseeing the vote counting, Bobby is winning. That's an important indicator because East Feliciana is both rural and heavily black and Democratic. If Bobby is making inroads there, he really could pull this off without a runoff.

9:30 EDT: Bobby is leading absentees in Caddo Parish, which is the Northwestern most parish of Louisiana. This is an area in 2003 where the Democrats launched a race war against Bobby and scared the crap out of white voters. Not gonna happen this time. He's also doing well in Acadia and Laforche, both of which are largely Catholic and very, very Cajun. Laforche, which reaches down into the Gulf of Mexico, was ravaged by Katrina and remembers what Bobby did down there to help out.

9:40 EDT: Bobby continues to dominate. Here is a great map of Louisiana we've put up for you guys to see where all these parishes are I'm talking about.

9:45 EDT: Bobby has slipped below 60% for the first time. He's down to 57%. Anything over 55% would be truly crushing. Above 50% it's historic. Just how well is he doing? Walter Boasso is a lifelong resident of St. Bernard Parish and is Bobby's biggest rival. Bobby is beating Boasso right now in St. Bernard. I expect Bobby to lose it, by damned if he is not competitive even there.

9:45 EDT from Ben live with the campaign: Bobby addressed a smaller group of his supporters before heading up to watch the results. The crowd was exuberant, and he thanked them, and tried to temper them a little - but only a little. Saying that tomorrow will be of enormous importance - either as the start of a run to the finish in a tough, hard fought runoff, or as the start of a fundamental change in the path for the state...finishing with his mantra of "we can change, we must change, we will change" to the shouted cheers of the crowd.

This place is electric.

10:00 EDT: He's down to 52%, but he's the only candidate over 100,000 votes -- 135,000 to be more precise. But as some of the Democratic strongholds come in and bases of operation for the other ELEVEN candidates come in, that's to be expected. There'll be a leveling out, I'd expect and then, as the Baton Rouge-Livingston Parish areas come in and North Louisiana, we'll see. Orleans will probably go for Boasso, but with Jindal so close he negates the effect.

10:30 EDT: Bobby has 224,000 votes and is holding steady at 52% of the vote. Check out our spreadsheet here.

10:35 EDT: 66% of the precincts are in and Bobby Jindal has 56% of the vote. I think it is safe to call this race for Bobby Jindal now. Orleans has not come in, but I think it is rapidly losing its ability to close the gap for Boasso.

11:00 EDT: WE CALL THIS RACE FOR BOBBY JINDAL. IT IS DONE. HISTORY IS MADE. BOBBY JINDAL BECOMES THE NEW GOVERNOR OF LOUISIANA WITHOUT A RUNOFF.

11:15 EDT: How bad is it for the Democrats? Even St. Louis Cemetery's numbers are coming in for Jindal. Homer Plessy voted Jindal, but of course he always votes Republican. Marie Laveau voted Jindal. Even Dominique You decided to vote Republican just this once. When the Dems can't even get the dead to vote for them, they're f. . . screwed.

11:33 EDT: One by one, the eleven other candidates are now conceding, starting with Boasso and now Georges. I must stop now as I'm totally hammered and keep writing four letter words into my posts and barely catching them before posting.

BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS! BOBBY WINS!

Now the question is: 2012 or 2016 for the White House.


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Louisiana Votes: The Results 94 Comments (0 topical, 94 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »

Can be found here from the Sec State's office.

Looks like these early numbers are mostly absentee ballots.

Eric

What's the threshold in the Louisiana system to avoid a run off? I forget, but it's more than a simple plurality.

______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !

You hit a majority - no run off. Otherwise, top 2, regardless of party.

______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !

Erick - wouldn't it be fairly accurate to say that the average absentee voter is more likely to be somewhat more affluent and educated? We always seem to get a boost from absentees. I'll wait on cheering a Jindal swing in traditional Democrat strongholds when we get more live precincts in the total. But it does look good on many fronts in the Bayou.

yes, but in East Feliciana, actually, the Democratic machine does a massive absentee campaign. That they are losing as much as they are losing there in absentees is one hell of a good sign.

Have I told you about my Ron Paul t-shirt?

Erick - what's the story with Beard in the Lt. Gov's race? It looks like he's running a distant third. But if we keep Landrieu under 50% will he back Kershaw and try to bring his supporters over in a runoff? That looks like it would make Kershaw the favorite going into November. Or is he going to be sour grapes and go sulk in a corner?

I must be slipping - I didn't know Sammy was running for office. I actually bought one of his CD's back in the 90's and I'm not really a huge fan of Country. Would he perform at his own inauguration, I wonder? I wonder what the protocol is for that?

He's also married to Lori Morgan, the Country Music singer who dated Fred Thompson for a while.

Have I told you about my Ron Paul t-shirt?

I forgot about that - I had a couple of her CD's too - my ex wife was into her. Could make for an interesting couple in the state house. Didn't she once perform for Hilliary Clinton and HRC got mad because she sang 'Stand By Your Man'? Or was that Faith Hill?

with you GreatDarkSpot as i'm not much of a fan of country music although I did like a couple of Sammy Kershaws early-mid 1990's songs.

Waylon Jennings was my one big country music exception i really enjoyed his style of country music i also liked willie nelson although not nearly as much as old Waylon.

Kershaw would make a fine Lt. Governor for the Bayou state people i hope they choose him

1) That Jindal wins outright.

2) That he can and will campaign around the state to help other R-s win in the "general" (aka run off).

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

if his percentage didn't drop 2 points every time I hit refresh. My computer isn't tied into the voting somehow is it?

He's down to 54%

Of course, looking at totals is meaningless. To find the real data, you need to take the 2003 election and compare the margins on a parish by parish basis to tonight's.. that's how I easily called Perdue's first Georgia win an hour before the media was willing to admit it.

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

Only 10% of precincts are in. Still too early to tell even where exactly those are coming from - even within a given parish.

Which parish is Bobby's home?

N.O is still out.

We're talking abysmal.

We'll see how that translates.

Very few people showed up to vote or very few ballots were actually cast?

www.republicansenate.org

they all went to the football game?

Aren't they in Baton Rouge? Not that folks from New Orleans couldn't go up to the capital to see LSU, but it's a Saturday and the game didn't start until 8 there - plenty of time to vote before heading off to cheer. This game should not be an excuse to low turnout in New Orleans.

Nothing from Orleans, but nothing from St. Tammany either.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

Is the state legislature up too? If so, what's the story there?

www.republicansenate.org

what is up the the SOS website? Can't get results. Is they any newspaper out there with them?

http://www.wwltv.com/elex/results/H101.HTM

Seems to Stable at 53% right now, but no info on where votes are coming from.

1400 precincts and Jindal at 52% ..... seems like he's hovering there.

Anyone know what triggers a recount in Louisiana?

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

The TV link shows Jindal with 56% with 2636 (66%) of the precincts in.

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

what a ride ..not helping me get things done while I click click click

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

Big Jindal up to 56% with 66% of the vote in.

The Sec State only had less than 50% of precincts in a mere 6 or 7 minutes ago. The TV numbers would mean that several hundred precincts reported in the last 10 minutes.

Something may be off kilter.

The SOS is showing fewer precincts reporting, but more votes for Bobby than the news.

Have I told you about my Ron Paul t-shirt?

I don't think it can be all exit polling since they are showing actual vote totals. But it might explain the discrepancy.

Sec State site is still kind of a crap shoot as to whether you can get it to load up. Some attempts at refresh get through, others just keep waiting and waiting.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

Yeah the % in was to high, it only about 60%

Multiple voting for Mary Landrieu worked out pretty well for her last time, so if turnout is oh I don't know 120% or so, perhaps that could swing a lot of votes from Jindal.

10:35 EDT: 66% of the precincts are in and Bobby Jindal has 56% of the vote. I think it is safe to call this race for Bobby Jindal now. Orleans has not come in, but I think it is rapidly losing its ability to close the gap for Boasso.

The TV station is saying it's going to come right down to the wire.

I assume N.O. is still out. That would be reason enough to say nothing. We don't know what's going on there.

And right now, the Sec. State's site is really falling down on the job. Can't get any results to load. HAlf the time links are going to the wrong pages. I guess they underestimated the traffic.

I don't see the news outlets calling the race, and no offense to our own editors, but I suspect they have more eyes on that decision.

Has there been any signal from the Jindal folks that they consider this is the bag? I'll believe it when they do.

Otherwise I'll wait to see if the Sec State can get me sdme numbers (maybe you all are getting in, I'm not).

I was making an observation, not arguing one way or the other whether this is a done deal.

www.republicansenate.org

WWLTV just called it for Bobby!

I'm convinced. If only he'd announce a Senate bid in his victory speech.

www.republicansenate.org

70% in, still at 53%

70% in, Jindal at 53% with nearly 445,000 votes.

Anybody know what the 30% is coming from?

“I am telling people loosen your ties, fire up the coffee pots, get ready for the weekend, ... We've got a lot of work to do.”

- John Bolton

Why do the democrat precincts ALWAYS come in at the end, and come in with big numbers to put the D over the top. (For example, the Webb race last year, the Tim Johnson SD race in 2002)

Big cities mean more people and more votes to count before you can release the results.

HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Let's nominate the Nash Equilibrium for President.

Well, that would make sense if they were reporting votes by CITY, but they are reporting by precincts. I presume each precinct has roughly the same number of voters, it's just that the cities have MORE precincts.

So, it still doesn't make sense that the precincts from the D strongholds are ALWAYS last.

But look, if you want to say it's Diebold, just come out and say it, heh.

HTML Help Central for Red Staters
Let's nominate the Nash Equilibrium for President.

"How many times do I have to tell you, the election isn't done when the voting is done, its done when the counting is done. I say when the counting is done so go back and count till I win."
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

High Road Answer: D areas tend to be big cities, and their precincts have more people going to each polling station. Thus, they have a lot more work to do.

Low Road Answer: They are run by incompetent fools and/or crooks, and they either can't get their act together, or are fixing the vote.

I'm sure it's sometimes A and sometimes B. I'll let you figure out when it is one or the other.

“I am telling people loosen your ties, fire up the coffee pots, get ready for the weekend, ... We've got a lot of work to do.”

- John Bolton

If they didn't come in late they wouldn't know how many votes they needed to "find."

and the Dems knew how many votes they needed to manufacture in order to win.

And yes, I'm saying that the Democrats cheated. The lemonade out of that lemon, however, was that by losing in 02, Thune got to run against and defeat Puff Dashle, at the time the Senate Minority Leader and major pain in the backside to all America.

As Russell Case would say, Payback's a bitch, ain't it?

It's war -- so when can we start shooting back at the enemy Democrats?

77% in, Jindal still at 53% with over 513,000.

“I am telling people loosen your ties, fire up the coffee pots, get ready for the weekend, ... We've got a lot of work to do.”

- John Bolton

77% in, still 53%

3073 of 3967 Precincts 77%

Bobby Jindal 513,183 53%
Walter Boasso 173,502 18%
John Georges 135,917 14%
Foster Campbell 121,941 13%

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

This race won by a Republican in a Democrat stronghold an the recent race in a very blue state where the Republican lost by 5 points means Republicans will have a banner year in 08.

I know, I know it means nothing however if these two incidents were reversed that is what the nutroots would say!

I want to wish the residents of LA a happy and great welcoming to the party that will do the most for them.

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

Seattle and Milwaukee precincts?
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.

It's war -- so when can we start shooting back at the enemy Democrats?

Looks good for them.

“I think we are the team to beat in the NL East -- finally.” - Jimmy "MVP" Rollins, 1/23/07

Somewhere in excess of their actual populations.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777

Lt Gov - looking like Landrieu will win
Ag Sec'y - Mike Strain R may force a runoff with Bob Odom - scandal-plagued Odom may be in trouble.
Atty Gen'l - Buddy Caldwell D is beating incumbent Foti D - Alexander R is 3rd in a close race
Sec'y of State - Dardenne R will win w/o runoff
Insurance - Donelon R close to avoiding runoff

It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. - David St. Hubbins

Is the state legislature up too?

www.republicansenate.org

But good luck finding all the results there. House has a lot of term limited folks headed out.

House & Senate serve 4 year terms. This is the first year term limits have kicked in. Party breakdown may not be reported as such; the split will be pro-Bobby & anti-Bobby, not necessarily on party lines.

It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. - David St. Hubbins

I take it the pro-Jindal/anti-Jindal breakdown won't be reported for a few days. That right?

www.republicansenate.org

The final numbers seem to show Alexander sneaking into 2nd for a runoff with Caldwell. Any chance for Alexander in that race?
______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard

OH Geez. No Hidden Messeage in that "I just a normal guy just like you" slogan?

...Jindal has about one-third of the total. I'm guessing that implies fairly strong support in the black community.

It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. - David St. Hubbins

It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. - David St. Hubbins

Looks like it's almost entirely East Baton Rouge (133 of 315), Orleans (350 of 442 in) and Terrabonne (8 of 90 in) parishes. Jefferson Parish also has about 50 of 260 precincts out. As of 11:15 eastern.

East Baton Rouge is having problems, but is heavily Republican.

Have I told you about my Ron Paul t-shirt?

Wikipedia: "The racial makeup of the parish was 56.17% White, 40.09% Black or African American."

It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. - David St. Hubbins

"Even paranoids have enemies."

up beside Jindals name. Does that mean he CANNOT fall below 50% and therefore wins, or that he cannot be caught?

My guess is it means that the station is calling the race for Jindal and not that it is a mathematical impossibility for him to drop below the threshold.

It means they don't think he'll fall below 50%. That is historic!

Have I told you about my Ron Paul t-shirt?

WWLTV calls it for Jindal!!! 53% wiht 81% reporting.

“I am telling people loosen your ties, fire up the coffee pots, get ready for the weekend, ... We've got a lot of work to do.”

- John Bolton

are Republican such as East Baton Rouge Parish (where my wife is originally from)... they are saying that he's winning and there are more GOP votes to come in than DEM votes (generally speaking).

Oz

www.first-cut-politics.blospot.com

Exceptions:
The small north LA parishes of Bienville & Red River, Foster Campbell's backyard;
St. Bernard Parish, Walter Boasso's home parish;
Orleans, where Jindal ran a very strong second.

Way to go, Bobby!

It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. - David St. Hubbins

Thanks for your unending coverage of local LA politics. You are a great example of what we need more of at RS. And this types of comments are the type of information I can't get elsewhere. Thanks for including us in your efforts.

______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard

As to the projections - my amateur calculations show that so long as Jindal polls better than approximately 21% in the remaining precincits, he crosses the 50%+1 threshold. The latest results from the SOS office seem to have him actually pulling away from the line (he's up to 54%).

All local media (at least what I can find) is calling the race.

A great night for LA and for all of us.

And as to Erick's question - let's give Bobby 2 full terms and a shot at the title in 2016 if he wants it. Heck, he'll still be only something like 45 at that time, right?

-------------
Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.

Caldwell winning at 35%
Alexander second at 32% by a nose (1,300 votes with 3,559 of 3,967 precincts reporting)

It's such a fine line between stupid and clever. - David St. Hubbins

Looks like Aledander will make the runoff (major underdog through) for AG

With Jindal's win, and Olangonski way over-performing in Taxachussettes, there have to be some nervous Dems. What was this about a bad environment?

“The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men."

 
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