RedState's Annual Predictions for 2007
By Erick Posted in 2007 — Comments (48) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
RedState has asked its contributors to put forward their predictions for 2007. Some will be wildly off the mark, some will be obvious, and some will be prescient.
We've also asked Rob Bluey and Josh Trevino to participate with us.
Read on for our predictions and be sure to add yours too.
Erick:
1) Mitch McConnell will become Majority Leader and the media and Kossacks will go nuts.
2) Nancy Pelosi will be outmaneuvered by Steny Hoyer and Rahm Emanuel. When she tries to put them in their place, she'll be marginalized.
3) The President will veto budgetary legislation for the first time.
4) Terrorists will attempt to carry out a significant attack on the United States.
5) The United States will begin concerted efforts to destabilize Syria and Iran.
6) War will break out in South America as Hugo Chavez attempts to destabilize the Western Hemisphere in a quasi-proxy war between Venezuela and the United States. China will give secret aid and comfort to Chavez.
7) President Bush will breath new life into the Monroe Doctrine.
8) The United States will head into a recession made worse by President's Bush's willingness to compromise on taxes and business regulations.
9) Republicans and Democrats will make a grand compromise on health care reforms in an effort to help GM, Ford, and other American industries.
10) Enough people will have finally gotten so tired of the Romney pimping at the Corner that NRO shutters it due to lack of audience.
11) A dark horse candidate will enter the Republican Presidential Primary overshadowing and dominating both McCain and Romney. Conservatives will rally. His name will not be Brownback.
12) Apple will really and truly unveil a cell phone, a 12" laptop, a new iPod, and it's iTV will be the best selling home entertainment electronic device for the year.
Ben:
1) In Washington, nothing much happens. Amazingly, America grows stronger for it.
2) Nearly all the candidates for the GOP 2008 nomination continue to suck.
3) Anthony Kennedy swerves slightly on abortion, continuing to support the Partial 4) Birth Abortion ban, but doing so narrowly in the upcoming Nebraska decision.
5) The San Diego Chargers, the current Vegas favorites, will not win the Super Bowl.
6) Bill Cowher will retire, but return when he discovers that, without frequent exercise, his jaw locks up.
7) Vince Young continues to win at everything.
8) Brady Quinn is the first overall pick in the NFL draft by the Detroit Lions or Oakland Raiders, marking the end of his participation in competitive football.
9) Over/under on Terrell Owens homicides = 1.5
10) Jeff Goldstein returns in full force, and writes a great book that is completely impossible to categorize.
11) Ann Althouse will remain completely irrelevant to everything that happens.
12) Saddam Hussein will continue to roast in the bowels of Sheol.
Josh Trevino:
1) The proposed "surge" in Iraq will happen, but it will not produce any long-term improvement in affairs there.
2) The Congressional Democrats will mire the nation in a series of investigations that will lead to an introduction of impeachment charges, but no impeachment.
3) The Congressional Democrats will begin de-funding the war in Iraq. By the end of the "surge," American warfighting capacity in Iraq will be hobbled.
4) The Iranians will become more open about their nuclear plans and capabilities, emboldened as the American war effort in Iraq winds down.
5) Osama bin Laden will not be caught.
6) Hezbollah will attack its political foes in Lebanon.
7) Ethnic cleansing in Iraq will continue. Sunnis will be pushed back to their enclaves. Christians will almost entirely disappear.
8) Ethiopian soldiers will be in Somalia through the summer, at least.
9) The American left will continue its push for the destruction of marriage, and succeed in two more states.
10) The White House will tacitly endorse McCain, turning over its lists and its operatives to the latter's 2008 campaign.
Rob Bluey:
1) Rudy Giuliani drops out of the GOP sweepstakes for president.
2) Newt Gingrich announces in September he will NOT run in 2008.
3) President Bush agrees to a tax increase as part of a concession with Democrats on Social Security reform.
4) Bush's approval rating falls to 17% after breaking his no-tax promise.
5) Sen. Teddy Kennedy sponsors a "comprehensive" immigration reform plan, which Bush signs, and the reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act, which Bush also signs Bush's approval rating climbs to 23% after working with Kennedy to pass an immigration plan and No Child Left Behind.
6) The House's new five-day workweek lasts exactly three weeks.
7) Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi stop speaking to each other in February after Reid is unable to pass several Democrat priorities
Justice John Paul Stevens retires from the Supreme Court; Bush names Larry Thompson, his former deputy attorney general, to replace him.
8) In a nationally televised address in January, Bush announces a 30,000 troop increase in Iraq.
9) Rep. Mike Pence announces he will challenge Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels in the GOP primary for governor.
10) By the end of the year, half of the offices on Capitol Hill employ a blogger or blog coordinator.
11) New England Patriots win Super Bowl XLI.
12) Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series.
13) Dallas Mavericks win the NBA finals.
14) Buffalo Sabres win the Stanley Cup.
15) RedState doubles its traffic after six months.
Academic Elephant:
1) The Bears will not win the Superbowl.
2) The Eagles will.
3) Brad and Angelina will not get married.
4) Paris Hilton will (to whom is immaterial, but Stavros Nikos is probably the best bet).
5) There will be a very large eastern seaboard snowstorm in March that will completely disrupt the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
6) John Murtha will form an exploratory committee to run for President and there will be enormous media buzz. Nothing will come of it.
7) Al Gore will form an exploratory committee to run for President and there will be enormous media buzz. What will come of this no one likes to think.
8) The US will increase military support to Colombia to combat the FARC guerrillas financed by Hugo Chavez, leading to a proxy war with Venezuela. Cindy Sheehan will travel to the region to be a "human shield" for the FARC, and receive a superficial wound. She will write a very bad book about the experience and there will be enormous media buzz.
9) John Bolton and Donald Rumsfeld will both write very good books. The media will collectively yawn.
10) Nancy Pelosi will step down as Speaker of the House. Under her replacement, House Democrats will become much more organized and effective.
11) Mitch McConnell will become Senate Majority Leader.
12) Elizabeth Dole will announce she is not running for re-election.
13) John Warner will announce he is.
14) Bob Gates will resign.
15) Dick Cheney will not.
16) Zal Khalilzad and George Casey will start a very interesting company together.
17) Fidel Castro will go somewhere he can keep Saddam Hussein company.
Happy New Year everybody--and Go Birds!
Dan McLaughlin:
1) Saddam will be executed. Tens of Arabs will rise up in protest for as many as three hours.
2) Fidel Castro will join him. But Cuba will not, yet, break free.
3) Bush will get his comprehensive immigration reform passed, and the Democrats will get a hike in the minimum wage. Little else will get through Congress.
4) Rudy Giuliani will join the presidential race. Al Gore and Barack Obama will not. John Kerry and George Pataki will drop out of the race by the 4th of July.
5) Iran will be a full member of the nuclear club by the end of 2007.
6) There will be more US troops in Iraq at the end of 2007 than there are today, but fewer casualties in 2007 than in 2006. The United States will fight another pitched battle with the Sadrists, but not with Syria or Iran.
7) Israel will continue its standoff with Hezbollah. Olmert's government will fall, and Lebanon plunge deeper into violence below the radar of the West.
8) Tony Blair will leave office. Vladimir Putin will continue to promise to leave office when his term ends.
9) Eliot Spitzer will raise taxes. New York will have fewer jobs at the end of the year than the beginning.
10) A major hurricane will hit Florida. People will miss Jeb Bush.
California Yankee:
1) Barry Bonds breaks Hank Aaron's home run record and gets indicted, or the other way around.
2) The Global War Against Terror expands into Eastern Africa, with an Islamic insurgency exploding throughout the entire region.
3) President Bush makes his third appointment to the Supreme Court. Islamic extremists assassinate General Pervez Musharraf.
4) The U.S. lifts its economic blockade of Cuba.
5) Osama bin Laden is brought to justice.
Mark I:
1) By the end of 2007, the frontrunner heading into the IA caucuses and the NH primaries, in both parties, will be someone who is not currently announced or planning to run for president.
2) A moderate southern Democrat Governor and a conservative southern Republican Governor will announce for president.
3) Newt will run. Hillary will not.
4) By the end of 2007 there will have been at least two vacancies on the Supreme Court. One will remain unfilled.
5) The United States will be drawn into a military engagement with Iraian forces either in the Persian Gulf or in extreme southern Iraq.
6) Soon after, the Supreme Leader of Iran will die. A power struggle will ensue between hard-liners and moderates to name his successor. The result will be the end of clerical rule in Iran.
7) Prime Minister Tony Blair will step down and hand the office over to someone other than Gordon Brown (the perceived heir apparent). Labour will spilt over this and early elections will be called. The Tories will not be able to capitalize and a coalition of Labour and Liberal Democrats will form a minority government. Britain will then pull its troops out of Iraq.
8) Fidel Castro will die and their will be another mass exodus of Cubans. Only this time, they will be heading south.
9) There will be a coup in Syria. Assad will flee into exile in France and a democratic government will be set up.
10) It will be revealed that Osama bin Laden has been dead for at least two years.
11) Brittany Spears will announce the creation of a new line of ladies undergarments. They will be marketed by Victoria's Secret.
12) With Oliver Stone's World Trade Center breaking the ice, a major Hollywood studio will produce and release a motion picture purporting to show an "alternate version of events" with regard to the planning, implementation, and afternath of the 9/11 attacks. The film will star Jake Gyllenhall and Maggie Gyllenhall, will open to critical acclaim, will be a colossal commercial flop, and will win the Academy Award for best screenplay in 2008.
13) Apple will unveil a new home entertainment hub which will control and link TV, computer, and home theater devices from one box. The unit will be called HomeBase and will retail for 1,995.00.
14) Donald Trump will buy the company that produces The View and will fire Rosie O'Donnell.
John Steele
1) Coalition and Iraqi forces will take off the gloves and significantly ratchet up actions against the Sunni and Shi'ite militias. Al Sadr will be captured or killed in a flurry of action early in the year. The result will be a marked increase in violence early in the year followed by a rapid decrease as the results begin to take hold.
2) Castro will finally shake off his mortal coil. There will be a brief power struggle that will involve Hugo Chavez attempting to "ally" Cuba and Venezuela in a new socialist compact. This will fail as Cuban nationalism prevails. Ricardo Alarcon will emerge as the new head of the Cuban state. Alarcon will slowly move Cuba toward a less repressive but still communist government. Relations with the US will not improve significantly in 2007. There will not be a mass reverse migration to Cuba 2007.
Blackhedd:
1) The S&P will add approximately 10%. The Dow Jones Industrials index will finish the year around 13,500.
2) Energy prices will moderate. Oil prices will range from the low fifties to the high sixties through the year.
3) US growth will be low to moderate (my guess: 4% on the year). Housing will drop up to 20%, raising widespread fears of a recession that will not materialize.
4) The Federal Reserve will hold rates unchanged throughout the year.
5) Long rates will continue their multi-year moderating trend and the yield curve may invert during the year, again prompting predictions of a recession that will not materialize.
6) Corporate earnings will be strong except for energy and autos.
7) All sectors which are exposed to China will show strong growth. Industrial commodities will show extremely strong growth and will raise fears of slower demand for finished goods, which will materialize.
8) The economic recovery in Japan will continue at a moderate pace, and yen rates will remain low.
9) The Eurozone will show surprising strength as fears of international tension fail to affect economic conditions and fundamentals improve.
10) Several nations in East Asia, including Vietnam, will emerge as strong manufacturing centers.
11) Africa will remain on the floor economically. Sadly, no one will care enough to see this for the opportunity that it is. The peoples of Africa will continue to suffer material poverty.
12) The dollar has farther to fall, but not much farther as the Fed continues its moderately-tight monetary stance.
13) The price of gold doesn't matter.
14) The US tech sector will show some significant upside surprises. Retail, manufacturing and commercial real estate will consolidate. Brokerage and finance will underperform.
15) China will act to strengthen commercial relationships with countries in all regions of the world, and will take steps to stabilize trade relations with the US. At the same time, they will continue aggressive development of military and space capabilities. They will ultimately fall short in their efforts to create homegrown infotech and biotech industries.
16) India will surprise everyone by their economic strength, but will disappoint many by refusing to align closely with the US in a regional power bloc.
17) The Super Bowl will take place in Florida in early February. :-)
Disclaimer: These opinions are mine alone, and are not necessarily held by other RedState contributors or by RS management. None of these opinions constitute investment advice in any way, shape or form. Do not trade in any financial or commodity market without first consulting a qualified investment advisor.
Mark Kilmer:
1) The New York Times editorially declares, in an article passing as straight news, that Iraq is now officially "Quagmire, Quagmire, Vietnam!" NBC's infotainment-meister Matt Lauer laughs this off as semantics. Nguyễn Minh Triết is heard to ask, "Where is the cool torture stuff?"
2) Nancy Pelosi is indicted. I don't yet know when or for what, but bet on it.
3) South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson lives but is clearly unable to perform his duties. Dingy Harry, Chuckie Schumer, Schumer's DSCC replacement, and the lefty blogs prepare to "speak truth to power" and begin circulating Impeach Mike Rounds petitions.
4) Fidel Castro dies. There is a another revolution in Cuba, called a "reinforcement," and one of Hugo's boyz is installed as president. They stuff Fidel and put him on display in a dark room under the Museum of the Revolution (Batista's old palace), refusing, like the Soviet's with Lenin, to give the man a proper burial.
5) The New York Giants win the Super Bowl, and QB Eli Manning is named MVP. After the postgame ceremonies, he is released.
6) I'll find five or six bloggers to help out at Rathergate.com, a media blog which will then receive more hits than… oh, say, Captain Ed. (Well…) I'll no longer go a month between diaries here at my home, RedState.com.
7) The New York Yankees trade Unit to the D-Backs, re-sign Rocket, and win the ALCS. Seven is the mystical number, remember, and this will be another Subway Series with the Mets, seven years after the last. The Mets will win, and they will "drin[k] 7-Up, 'tween 6th and Broadway." (It's an old Duran Duran song. Don't ask.)
8) Prince will again change his name to something esoteric. A 20-something will squint and ask, "Wasn't he that old guy who did halftime at the SuperBowl? I was out buying more sausage and I missed most of it."
9) We'll all have a happy new year and continue to rock the house.
Pejman Yousefzadeh:
1) The surge in Iraq will consist of anywhere between 25,000-30,000 troops. They will have a positive effect on Iraqi internal security, making possible at least a discussion whereby more troops could be considered. At the same time, while sectarian violence will be diminished, there will continue to be sectarian violence, raising the question of what will happen to Iraq once there is a drawdown of troops and making the partition/federalization option one that continues to attract attention and support.
2) The Bush Administration will enter into compromise after compromise with the Democratic Congress, thus demoralizing the base. John McCain will rev up the base again by promising to take a hard line on spending and taxes if he should become President.
3) John Kerry will decide to run for President. Late night comics will rejoice and wonder what they ever did to deserve such good fortune.
4) Fidel Castro will "live." Really. Honestly. After all, it is the Cuban propaganda service telling us so. We can believe them, right?
5) Hugo Chavez will continue to indulge his dictatorial tendencies. The usual suspects will continue not to care.
6) The Iranian regime will continue to indulge its dictatorial tendencies. The usual suspects will continue not to care.
7) It is easy to predict this after tonight's game, but the Chicago Bears will not only not win the Super Bowl, they will be knocked out in their first playoff game. Alas.
8) Manchester United will win the English Premier League title, but my Chelsea Blues will win the Champions' League. Of course, even that prediction may be too optimistic.
9) The Chicago Cubs will win the World Series. (Hey, if I'm right about this, I look good.)
10) The RedState-Eagle Publishing merger will prove to be a smashing success.
Moe Lane
1) The newly-Democratic Congress will not impeach the President, not defund the war and not produce meaningful corruption reform. They will instead hold numerous hearings of administration officials, pass meaningless resolutions and keep the pork coming.
2) The Democratic Party will present these activities to their base as being the reward that said base has earned for their activities, coupled with hints that said base should now keep their wallets out, their grumbling down to a dull roar and otherwise remember their place.
3) The Democratic Party's base will keep their wallets out, their grumbling down to a dull roar and otherwise remember their place.
4) Social Security reform will not happen.
5) Immigration reform will.
6) A Supreme Court Justice will resign; the President will find somebody other than a white guy this time to take his or her place. The usual suspects will issue the usual press releases on the subject.
7) Castro will not die, simply to spite me. If I'm wrong, we'll be recognizing the new government within 48 hours.
8) Iran will simmer; and so will North Korea, if they're smart. If they're not, a Chinese official will make a phone call to a certain bullet in a certain North Korean colonel's gun.
9) Somebody in Hollywood will say something stupid; only this time, it'll be on behalf of our side of the spectrum.
10) On 12/31/2007, we'll all be ruefully chuckling over how we were so worried about Senator Obama.
11) Our future Overlord - or Dark Queen - will be born sometime in May or June. World domination will proceed apace. There may be ice cream involved. Certainly a cigar, if I'm wrong about #7.
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RedState's Annual Predictions for 2007 48 Comments (0 topical, 48 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
is already out of date. He vetoed stem-cell legislation this year.
But when it comes to this sort of thing, I must say that your No. 6 is at once one of the most outside-the-box and yet likely-to-happen predictions I've ever seen.
1) I will wake up with a hangover on the 1st
2) Apple will introduce new products and they will cost more than the equivalent.
3) The left and the right will accuse each other of dirty tricks.
4) They will both be right.
5) Both parties will claim to desire bipartisanship while working to make certain nothing gets done.
6) People who buy vista will be very upset when they find they have to keep buying upgrades to get it to work.
7) Democrats will tout taxcuts that are impossible to use (strike that my senator allready sent me the email)
8)Harry Reid will have more corruption scandals but nothing will come of them.
9) Nancy Pelosi will continue to use the speakership for personal and petty reasons.
10) Republicans will still act as if the press is their friend
Veritas magna est et praevalet.
1. The Eagles will win the Super Bowl.
2. John McCain will be nearly unstoppable by the end of 2007.
3. Dick Cheney will have a mild heart attack.
4. Michael Jackson will release and new CD and it will suck.
5. Olmert's government will fall and Netanyahu will be re-elected. Ehud Barak will become the new minority leader.
6. Belarus will have it's own revolution.
7. Paul McCartney will be divorced from Heather Mills and she will get less than 40 million pounds - but it will be much more than she deserves.
8. Yoko Ono will be saved from a firey death by John Lennon's ghost.
9. Hubert Ingraham will be re-elected as Prime Minister of the Bahamas - as if you care.
1. I won't wake up with a hangover on New Year's day.
2. I won't be awake for New Year's. Again.
3. I will be more in love with Mrs. 908 on 12/31/07 than I am today.
4. Both of our sons will make us proud we are their parents.
5. Franz, Prince of Dogness will bite Princess Shirley when she gives him a bath. She will have deserved it.
6. God will continue to be extraordinarily gracious and meet all of our needs according to HIS riches in glory in Christ Jesus.
7. Some political stuff will happen that I don't like. I will post about it on Red State. Flyerhawk will disagree.
8. Some political stuff will happen that I do like. I will just be amazed.
9. The Arizona Cardinals will have a losing season.
10. Life in 2007 will rich in family, rich in friends and simply a wonder to behold.
_______________________________
If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"...
I think the Republicans will regain 50-50 control of the Senate, and not necessarily due to the situation in South Dakota.
Joe Lieberman.
Yeah, he's a liberal on all things except Iraq, but he's also a snake. He worked his independent game quite well, while working to ensure he would still be able to keep his committee assignments. Meanwhile he's also been saying things that upset the Democrats as well. It appears like he's playing the field.
I think he's keeping his options open and if it looks like Republicans might be able to regain the Senate in 2008, he's going to want to side with the winners. Hence I don't think he'll make a move like this until pretty far into 2007 when he can better sense the way the wind is blowing.
Now I would hope that someone from the Republicans is bending his ears with offers. I'm afraid the end might just justify the means on this one. If he caucuses with the Republicans or actually switches parties, it would change everything.
btw, I'm not at all happy with the GOP and conservative support of Lieberman in the past election. The desire to see Lamont go down in flames did little for the conservative agenda in this country except for some personal satisfaction. Connecticut is a liberal state, but the Republicans had an ideal opportunity to pick up a seat there if they ran a strong candidate and backed that person. The Democrat vote would have been split between Lamont and Lieberman. A viable Republican candidate could have won that seat. Instead Republicans felt like they owed Lieberman and basically let the Republican candidate just swing in the wind. A horrible choice that cost the Republicans the Senate in my opinion, thanks to the gift of hindsight of course.
Still, we have what we have, and I believe Lieberman is "in play." Might as well work it.
anti-ship missle at a U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship in the Persian Gulf and spark an immediate, devastating, but brief retalliation. The ruling clerics and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will survive the attacks, but not the popular uprising.
___________________________________________________________
Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
Gamecock, DeVine Op-Ed for The Charlotte Observer, blogs at Race 4 2008 and The Minority Report. “One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson
1) Romney and Giuliani become the Republican frontrunners by years end as moderate support for McCain collapses because of his move to the right.
2) Newt will through his support behind Romney after considering a run.
3) Huckabee will flirt with running, but run for the US Senate again.
4) Barack Hussein Obama will run for President, but John Edwards will be the alternative candidate to Hillary Clinton.
5) Republicans regain control of the Senate through a Lieberman defection over Iraq.
6) Canada: Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be reelected in Canada with a larger minority or small majority government. The Liberals will finish second with the socialist NDP collapsing to single digits in some areas. The Quebec separatists will remain a sizable number of seats in Parliament.
The provincial elections in Ontario will produce a minority government while the Federalists will win again in Quebec.
7) Prime Minister John Howard will be reelected with another majority in Australia.
8) Gordon Brown will replace Tony Blair as British Prime Minister. Labour will be crushed in local elections scheduled for May 2007.
9) A more stable national unity government is formed in Iraq after Shiites agree to give some constitutional concessions to the Sunnis. Sadr is crushed by an American assault and killed in combat operations.
10) United States and Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia have a brief air and naval war with Iran which sparks a bloody civil war in Iran.
11) Castro dies and revolution occurs in Cuba.
1. GOP assumes majority in Senate.
2. Stevens retires from the SCOTUS.
3. Chairman Specter ushers through Bush's conservative Hispanic nominee to replace Stevens. Dems do not dare filibuster the first Hispanic nominee to the SCOTUS.
4. After it becomes appaerent that there are now five actual conservatives on the SCOTUS and Kennedy becomes irrelevant, he retires.
5. Bush replaces Kennedy with a bullet-proof conservative. ie: a well-liked Senator from a state with a GOP Governor.
6. Chuck Schumer's head explodes.
7. Bush sign's John McCain's amnesty bill, shortly after McCain enthusiastically supports Bush's Hispanic nominee for the SCOTUS.
8. Bush remembers that he is a Republican and, cheered on by McCain, vetos 4 spending bills, quadripling the total number vetos in his Presidency.
9. The GOP base realizes that with McCain at the top of the ticket, they could solidify their hold on the Southwest, win New Hampshire, and break Bush's high-water mark of 44 % of Latino voters nationwide while putting a pro-life, pro-gun, Hawk in the White House. We all wise up and get behind McCain.
10. We begin a draw-down of ground forces in Iraq, leaving air-bases there or in neigboring countries to quell uprisings, but not longer play rent-a-cop and get killed by IED's. The situation in Iraq improves for us, but Iraqi's continue to die for many years until most Sunni's leave the country.
11. With the passage of the immigration bill, continued lower taxes and unemployment, and upholding of the Partial Birth Abortion ban; it becomes appaerant that the only legislative failures of Bush's Presidency are on opening ANWR and privatizing Social Security. With the confirmation of 2 more conservatives to the SCOTUS; it becomes appaerent the Bush has delivered 100% of what he has PROMISED to conservatives. (ie; he never guaranteed to cut spending or close the border)
12. MOST IMPORTANTLY: No matter if any prediction of any of us comes true, no matter who controls the Senate, no matter what happens in Iraq; America will finish 2007 in EXACTLY the same place it started it; as the greatest nation on this Earth.
"Life is too short, can't we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?"
1) Large as it is now, national security will become an even bigger campaign issue in the next two years.
2) The next President of the United States is currently working in the private sector (January 1, 2007) and has not been in an elected office for quite some time.
3) The next President of the United States will not be a woman, even though a majority of American voters in 2008 will be women.
We Just Disagree...and you're a tool.
Happy New Year
1. The Republican presidential nominee will be a darkhorse, who will be known as the "Napolean of the Stump".
2. Al Haig will not declare. Sorry, Mark.
3. There will be no line-item veto legislation passed.
4. Ayatollah Sistani will die of natural causes. This will not result in nearly as much upheaval as expected, but will eventually and indirectly lead to Sadr's death.
5. Public support for military actions in Iraq will increase to around 60% by mid-year.
6. Federalism will become a major political issue in the presidential race. By the end of the year, many in the general public will know what it means.
7. There will be a new Supreme Court Justice. McCain-Feingold will be finished off. Roe v. Wade will be overturned (maybe early 2008 on that one).
8. Blinking Text will be banned on RedState. Neil will publicly apologize for his tutorial.
9. My user account on RedState will be terminated.
don't you feel that federalism has a certain "taint" because of its use during... oh, never mind. It's not my argument.
Blinking text aside, I'll note that we each forgot to include predictions for this morning's Outback Bowl. Remember, Joe Paterno played a small role at the Republican National Convention a few years back, and Tennessee is the home State of Deputy Planet, Al Gore. Then again, Tennessee is a red State and Pennsylvania a blue one. Volunteers provide value in a capitalist society, while Nittany Lions are held captive to the acid rock which environmentalists are using to halt construction of I-99.
It's a conundrum, David.
1 The big story will be the emergence of substantial opposition to the Iraq War among Republicans. See the Novak column here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/31/AR200612...
At least one significant player for the GOP nomination will oppose the surge.
2. Hillary's strategy (the new Hillary - taken from the new Nixon strategy) will fail. Her numbers in key primary states will continue to hover around 30.
3. By the end of '07 there will be significant tension between Obama and Edwards forces. The liberal blogsphere will be badly split.
A fourth Democratic challenger will be well positioned as a result.
4. The GOP blogsphere will unite behind McCain to stop Guiliani - who will run. Romney will drop out by the end of '07 and cause the NRO corner to adopt a black background for week.
5. Joe Lieberman will drive all liberals crazy.
6. The Democratic House will drive all conservatives crazy.
7. Democrats will hold lots of hearings creating substantial buzz in the blogs - and will be ignored by the rest of the country.
1. The Iraq situation will not significantly improve
2. The economy will continue along its current path
3. Scooter Libby will be convicted, Bush will not pardon him, Cheney will resign
4. The new VP will be Condi Rice, who, depending on poll numbers and potential support will announce she's running for President.
5. There will be a SC retirement and Bush will nominate a conservative woman. She will be confirmed. The SC will strike down the school integration plans, but will also strike down the Federal PBA ban while overturning it on the state level.
6. Neither the Chargers nor the Colts will play in the Super Bowl
7. Ehud Olmert will no longer be PM of Israel by 2008
8. There will be no Palestinian State
9. John McCain will see his poll numbers decline as he becomse associated with the failure of the troop increase to bring about tangible results. The media will start to portray him as wanting to refight the Vietnam War and still affected by his 5+ years in captivity.(If the surge does work, McCain will have wrapped up the nomination by Labor Day 2007)
10. The GOP front runner by the end of 2007 will not be McCain
11. Hillary Clinton will be the dem frontrunner as Edwards and Obama become acquainted with the Clinton machine
12. Barry Bonds will hit home run 755 and retire, professing respect for Hank Aaron and saying that his record should never be broken.
I'm not holding my breath in anticipation (having developed a fondness for oxygen) but the general optimism of most of your predictions is appealing!
1. The Democratic National Committee (or maybe George Soros) will buy naming rights to the Superdome in New Orleans, and will rename it the "Bush Lied, People Died Dome." The MSM will enthusiastically adopt the new name and will work a mention of it into seemingly unrelated stories, such as coverage of a game involving the Chicago Bears versus the Green Bay Packers.
2. Economic growth will slow to near recession levels, led by a decline in consumer spending triggered by psychological fear caused by a decline in the real estate market, compounded by a resetting of millions of ARM mortgages to higher rates on 1/1/07 snd continued higher gasoline prices. At the same time, inflationary pressures will increase. Caught in a box between recession and inflation, easy Ben Bernanke will choose to do the non-confrontational thing, and will lower rates to forestall a recession. As a result, the dollar will fall to $1.75 against the Euro, with similar falls against all other major currencies excepting China's, which will remain pegged to the dollar with only a trivial trading range. Americans will lose 25% or so of their wealth under worldwide currency standards, but most people will not notice so long as imported goods from China are still cheap at Walmart. Individual Americans will fall further into debt under Bernanke's policy, making the resulting inevitable correction much more severe and painful when it finally comes in 2010.
3. Too many people at Redstate will continue to respond to posts they disagree with by tossing around words like "idiot," "stupid" and "sleazeball." The Directors will tolerate this uncivil behavior, even though it's not a good thing. Despite this, Redstate's traffic will continue to grow steadily but modestly, even though 2007 is an off year politically, and will be poised for dramatic gains when the political world heats up again in 2008.
4. Whatever happens in 2007 will get less MSM coverage than the attention given to the many Senate and House hearings investigating what did or did not happen in 2001 - 2006. One or two Democratic officeholders that are not well known today will be household names a year from based on their grandstanding in these hearings.
5. Bush's approval ratings will fall into the low twenties. Republican officeholders, fearful of a debacle in 2008, will distance themselves from him as far as possible. Democrats will drop all mention of impeachment, figuring that an unpopular President in office is the best possible lead in to the 2008 elections.
6. No Supreme Court justices will retire, but one will die unexpectedly while spending the night at the home of a close friend of the opposite gender. Bush will have a choice between appointing a moderate who can get confirmed, or a movement conservative who can't get confirmed, and will choose to go with a telegenic moderate in an effort to rebuild his popularity ratings. Movement conservatives will explode with anger, but Bush will ignore them and his choice will be confirmed with the aid of significant Democratic votes.
7. John McCain will throw a huge tantrum that gets captured on a video camera he did not know was there. The MSM will turn on him, and replay the tape endlessly, while a YouTube version with a rap soundtrack uploaded by a young movement conservative becomes an underground hit. His campaign will collapse under concerns that he is, indeed, a little too tightly wound to have his finger on the nuclear button.
8. Barrack Obama will announce his run for the Presidency. In response, Hillary Clinton will have allies at a safe, deniable distance release to the media the contents of her opposition research file on Obama, one bit at a time. Someone's diary at Redstate will feature prominently the tidbit that he was accused of cheating on a spelling test in the seventh grade, but overall no one much will want to hear bad things about Obama and the dirt will have less impact in the primaries than Hillary hopes. Hillary will contact Obama and offer him the VP spot; he will decline, but will tell Hillary that he will be happy to consider her for the VP spot. Meanwhile, John Edwards continues to work under the radar, and will surprise everyone by winning Iowa convincingly.
9. Castro will die. Raul will hold the regime together, at least superficially, while below the radar maneuverings set the stage for a battle for power. Elian Gonzalez, now nearly grown, will emerge as a leader of the Cuban youth movement in favor of democracy.
10. Flyerhawk will awaken one day, and decide that there is a reason he is drawn so irresistibly to Redstate. After a week camping in the high desert and living off honey and dried bread crusts, he will return to his computer, and log on to announce his new found commitment to smaller government, lower taxes, greater individual freedom, and the appointment of judges who actually follow the Constitution.
Haven't Roberts and Alito busted the myth that originialists or strict constructionists or texutualists can't make it to the court?
And as to Flyerhawk,
Nice one!
: )
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" - Defoe
I'm fairly certain that if I were to become a Conservative, a right in the Space/Time Continuum will open and engulf the planet.
None of us want that to happen.
"There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were and ask why not." George Bernard Shaw
One morning, Flyerhawk rose with the dawn, stepped before the sun and spake unto her thus:
Thou great star! What would be thy happiness were it not for those for whom thou shinest? For ten years thou hast mounted to my cave. Thou wouldst have tired of thy light and the journey, but for me, mine eagle and my serpent. Behold, I am weary of my wisdom, like a bee that has gathered too much honey. I need hands outstretched to receive it. I would fain give away and distribute, until the rich among men found joy once more in their equality, and the poor in their government-provided benefits.
So bless me, then, thou quiet eye, that can look without envy upon even an all-too-great amount of tax revenue.
.......
"Stop, conservative!" Flyerhawk cried. "It is you or I, and I am the stronger of us two: you do not know my abysmal thought. That you could not bear!"
"Behold," Flyerhawk continued, "this moment! From this gateway, a long eternal lane leads backward: behind us lies an eternity. Must not whatever can walk have walked on this lane before? Must not whatever can happen have happened, have passed by before? What do you think, conservative, of this moment? Are not all things knotted together so firmly that this moment draws after it all that is to come? Therefore, itself too?"
Courage, however, is the best slayer, courage which attacks, which slays even death itself, for it says: "Was that life? Well then, once again!" In such words, however, there is much playing and brass. He that has ears to hear, let him hear!
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With apologies to my favorite relative, dear mad Uncle Fritz. Happy New Year, Flyerhawk. Try not to slip on the rocks on your way down from the mountains.
It would be cool if some poor editor (Erick?) were tasked with going back to past predictions and noting which ones happened and didn't.
Ok, here are mine.
1) Some event will cause major upheaval in Iran. Either a death of a leader, war with the US, an uprising, etc.
2) Militant Islamo-facism will make (even more) bold inroads into Africa and south east Asia.
3) Sadr will be killed or captured this year.
4) Bin Laden will again demonstrate that he is alive by tape (verified by US intell).
5) The house GOP will excel at playing defense, and the Dem majority in the house will divide into bitter factions.
6) The GOP in the senate will be more united also.
7) Bush will confound supporters and detractors alike. He will support several pieces of legislation conservatives hate (immigration reform, minimum wage increase). But he will also veto some legislation, and will continue to fight against tax increases and for the War on Terror.
8) Armagedon ensues, as a vacancy on SCOTUS presents. The procedure becomes more heated than any SCOTUS hearing in history, but no fillibuster happens. The nominee will be a conservative, but not a front ticket conservative that many conservatives wanted. The nominee is confirmed by a narrow margin. The new court (in future years) will uphold Roe, but seriously dent abortion advocates in every other way and most other areas of law will move sharply to the right. But this year we'll have mixed results.
9) China and Islamic facism will be the new fronts on America's stage as the Cold War further receeds from memory. Europe will recede into further insignificance. Our new important allies will be Australia, Japan, and India. Europe will complete it's move from solid ally to nuetral or slighlty opposed. Eastern Europe will continue to improve relations with the US, primarily Poland and the Chezck Republic.
10) Russia will slide further into an anti-democracy and anti-western state. It will be marginalized in its hostility towards the US because it shares fears of Islamo-facism coming through Chechnya.
11) N Korea will not be a major factor this year.
12) China will continue to increase ties to some South American governments.
13) Castro dies. Cuba moderates to some extent.
14) Two to three major US office holders die (of natural causes) in office. This may happen in SCOTUS or in the senate. Two to three will be elderly democrats, and the lefty blogosphere will smell a conspiracy.
15) A major scandal will knock out a major leading GOP '08 contender, and another will seriously weaken a dem contender.
16) SD beats NO in the Super Bowl.
17) Europe will more and more appreciate the threat of Islamic-facism. Terrorist strikes, or just the unreast of local muslim populations (perhaps some more high profile murders) will start to awaken (not fully) Europe.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" - Defoe
1) As the Iraq government consolidates, we will increasingly turn a blind eye while the Shia whip the butts of the recalcitrant Sunni. By year end not much will have changed, but there will be less terror attacks.
2) Ted Kennedy, and/or other old degenerates , democrats will die in office, perhaps a few republicans too.
This will be a big year for old politicians to die and/or retire for health reasons.
3) David Gregory will lose it and will call Tony Snow a "*&^%$@" at t a press conference. He will become the new Liberal hero.
4) Keith Olbermann will say something bad about Putin and then die of poisoning.
5) Tony Blair will take a position with a major Academic or Industrial firm and become a spokesman for democracy and human rights.
6) Jimmy Carter will become the President of a new "anti imperialism" NGO headed by Hugo Chavez, Ahmedenijad, and Kim Il Jong.
7) Barack Obama will wow the voters by turning water into non-alcoholic wine and feeding five thousand supporters with two pizzas and a subway sandwich.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
1. Congress will hold numerous hearings. They will be a lot of sound and fury and result in nothing materially. Some mid-senior level official will be caught "lying" in some manner and removed from the Administration. The Democrats will point to him as proof of their toughness. Life inside the Beltway will go on undeterred.
2. The true Republican nominee for President will emerge sometime in the late spring. He still won't wow the Social Conservatives but he will be a better choice for them than any of the other presumptive candidates.
3. Guiliani will not run. After making a lot of noise about running he will make do with being a whip for the eventual nominee. Guiliani will be the AG if a Republican wins in 08.
4. Barack Obama and John Edwards will continue to make strides in the Democratic run. Hillary will realize she doesn't have the support for a Presidential bid and will look to consolidate power. She will vie for the Majority Leader position after......
5. Harry Reid will be ousted from the majority leader position. Nothing criminal will come of his "scandals" but there will be enough for the ethics committee to come down on him, forcing him to resign from being majority leader.
6. Congressional Republicans will "rediscover" fiscal responsibility and bang the drum for budget cuts. Nothing will come of it but the Republicans will convince a significant portion of their base that they have found the road to Damascus once again.
7. Amadinejad will lose power in Iran as the clerics begin to worry about his belligerent stance towards the US. Iran will creep closer to having nukes. They will begin by showing they are working on building nuclear power while paving the way for nuclear weapons.
8. Troop strength in Iraq will increase. A perceived drop in violence will occur. The US will begin to disentangle itself from Iraq.
9. Pejman will be sorely disappointed as his Blues will have a hugely disappointing season losing in the quarters of the Champion's League and ending 10 points behind Man United.
10.Moe, Neil, John, and Blackhedd all have epiphanies and realize that they are, in fact, confused Liberals.
Sidenote: As a sign that this will truly be an interesting year, I was at a party last night arguing with a Republican Party committee member from Long Island. I actually was forced to take up of a defense of George Bush as she was throwing out numerous BushLiedisms. Yes, she was an actual Republican and she wasn't cute enough to simply agree with her. So for anyone who was feeling a disturbance of the Force last night around 1:00 EST, you now know the reason.
"There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were and ask why not." George Bernard Shaw
Mind you, if we end up having a daughter I will undoubtedly turn into the most socially conservative social conservative that ever conserved a social. I've already consulted with my father over the proper baseball bat with which to greet potential suitors*, two decades down the road.
Moe
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC.
*My father is a traditionalist on these matters: wooden Louisville Slugger, and no excuses. It must be admitted that it is the finest pure club that humanity has ever made; I might even back it against a bokken...
"You know, I actually kind of miss prison."
_______________________________
If "pro" is the opposite of "con", what is the opposite of "progress"...
with a boy, you worry about one boy in the neighborhood, with a girl, you worry about ALL boys in the neighborhood.
In Vino Veritas
Good luck with that. You might want to consider a trip to the sporting goods store on her 13th birthday.
-exits
Gamecock, DeVine Op-Ed for Charlotte Observer, blogs at Race 4 2008.
Clearly you argued for Bush to get that (5) I gave you out of your system, heh.
Ether that or that (5) was step one toward your #10 coming true...
Run like Reagan!
2) A moderate southern Democrat Governor and a conservative southern Republican Governor will announce for president.
Well, for Democrats, I heard Mark Warner is considering running again, but I'm not sure if he already blew his wad. You think Phil Bredesen?
As for Republicans, well, Gilmore and Huckabee are pretty safe bets, and I'd put ten dollars that Keating pops up somewhere.
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Develop alternatives to existing policies and keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable. Milton Friedman
1. The New York Times will leak yet more classified information, and not one thing will be done to stop them.
2. If Mitt Romney can nip the flip-flopper stuff in the bud, he might still be in by 12/31/07. If not, he won't be.
3. Bush will increase troops on the ground in Baghdad, and it will to some extent stabilize the city.
4. Entitlement reform will not happen.
5. Edwards and Obama will have a fierce battle to be the left-wing alternative to Hillary.
6. One SCCOTUS retirement or death.
7. Osama Bin Laden will be killed, captured, or discovered to be dead sometime this year.
8. The American economy will roll right along.
9. Newt Gingrich will formally announce a run for President.
10. The tax increase-for-Soc. Sec. plan will follow the fate of the Miers nomination: Bush will propose it, conservatives will attack it, Bush will back off and propose something to get his base back. However, Bush will need to realize his mistake quickly, or his damage control effort will fail.
11. The Astros will take the NL Central, and they or the Philles will play the Yankees in the World Series.
Gamecock, DeVine Op-Ed for Charlotte Observer, blogs at Race 4 2008.
the GOP will not take control of the senate. Johnson won't leave unless he dies, period (because even if he's like Terry Schiavo, he'll still be a senator). Lieberman won't switch either. Besides, would control of the senate really even do anything for us? When the new congress takes power, McConnel will have 49 votes, and he only needs to count to 40. If Johnson died, he'd have 50 votes and would have to count to 60. The former is much easier.
I predict that just about nothing will get through the senate in the next session.
..."chairmanships".
Yes, it affects the agenda and much, much more.
"Greater is an army of sheep led by a lion, than an army of lions led by a sheep" - Defoe
Very interesting cross section of picks from the Red State staff. I've been saying for months that Rudy will not run. Glad to see someone finally agrees with me.
VP Cheney suffers a mild cardiac event and resigns due to health. The President shocks everyody by proclaiming bipartisanship and nominating Joe Lieberman to fill the remaining term as VP. The nutroots go wild, but Lieberman is easily confirmed.
Gov Rell of Connecticut appoints a resident of Connecticut, John Bolton, to Lieberman's seat. The nutroots go wild again.
The GOP takes back the Senate, though with the wrinkle that tiebreaker, Lieberman, is a Dem (sort of). But, as somebody above said, it's all about the chairmanships.
1. Jack Bauer will save the world - again.
2. The Chargers will win the Super Bowl, but the ratings will be the lowest ever.
3. The "situation" in Iraq will stay about the same, regardless of Bush's new way foward.
4. JPS dies/retires from SCOTUS, but Bush names a "moderate" so nothing much changes.
5. Castro does not die, but speculation grows that he is actually dead.
6. Near the end of the year, Iran gets the bomb. They proceed to nuke Jerusalem. Israel responds in kind. Iran calls upon it secret alliance with Russia, and Russia nukes Israel. The US responds by attacking Russia, which attacks the US and the EU. With most the developed world in shambles, Islam takes over the world. To the chagrin of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Shia become second class citizens in the new Sunni caliphate. Oh, and the 12th Imam does not come out of his well.
No. 6 is about as doomsday as you can possibly get. And about as close to impossible as you can get.
Iran will NOT nuke Israel
Russia will most CERTAINLY NOT nuke Israel
The West would not nuke Russia as a defense of Israel.
Ahmadinejad wouldn't need to worry about chagrin as he would be long since dead by the time this incredibly unlikely event were to occur.
"There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why... I dream of things that never were and ask why not." George Bernard Shaw
is reportedly dead now, per PJM.
after
Gators top Buckeyes in BCS
Colts beat Bears in Super Bowl
US-Iraqi forces kill enemy forces across Iranian border
Bush poll numbers rise as he opposes Dem's liberal agenda
Buckeyes beat Tar Heels in March Madness
Lacrosse Blue Devils acquitted of all charges
Knicks play all home games at MSG despite global warming
Thrashers win first Stanley Cup over Mighty Ducks
but before
Shaq returns to lead Heat Repeat over Spurs
McCain drops out of Race 4 2008
Temperatures reach 100 degs in Phoenix prompting Gore '08 talk
Smoltz led Braves win World series over Tigers in Motown Game 7
Little E wins Nextel Cup
GC's Dead-Tree Observer Column is picked up more newspapers
Christ wins 2007 War on Christmas, as he has every year since AD 4 (The First Christmas)
Gamecock, DeVine Op-Ed for The Charlotte Observer, blogs at Race 4 2008 and The Minority Report. “One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson