Soon-to-be Governor Bobby Jindal might not need a runoff.
(Good news from Louisiana.)
By Mark Kilmer Posted in 2007 — Comments (11) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Congressman Bobby Jindal (R-Louisiana), the probable next governor of that State, is raising money rapidly.
Jindal took in $1 million during the last three weeks of September, pushing his total for the campaign to almost exactly $11 million. The Kenner congressman has also opened the spending floodgates, reporting $2.8 million in outlays, a clip of more than $140,000 per day as he blankets the state with television and radio advertising. That saturation does not include more than $200,000 worth of direct mail and other advertising the state Republican Party is financing on Jindal's behalf.
Even after that spending, the congressman had almost $4.3 million left on Sept. 30, a staggering sum that is nearly impossible to spend before the Oct. 20 primary.
He's not spending his own money. The Dems are spending theirs:
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State Sen. Walter Boasso, D-Arabi, reported $1.49 million worth of personal loans to his campaign, covering his $1.46 million in spending and dwarfing the $98,000 in contributions he received. Boasso had $144,000 left to spend on Sept. 30.
Independent John Georges, a New Orleans-area businessman making his first run for public office, reported a net infusion of $500,000 from personal accounts for the period, while spending $1.6 million. He collected $102,000 worth of contributions and had $734,000 left in his campaign kitty at the end of the period.
The fourth major candidate, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, is Jindal's closest competitor in terms of attracting contributions, having collected $167,000. But Campbell, while able to tap some personal accounts from his success as a farmer and insurance agency owner, has not matched Boasso and Georges in personal campaign spending. Campbell reported repaying some earlier loans he had made to his campaign.
The Louisiana primary happens on Saturday, October 20, and if Jindal can top 50% of the vote, there will be no runoff. Bobby Jindal will be the next governor of Louisiana.
It looks good:
The poll has Jindal with 46% support and with undecided leaning voters tabulated in the results; Jindal is at 49.5% support, ever so close to the magic 50% mark he will need to avert a runoff. This would be an unprecedented achievement in Louisiana politics for a non-incumbent to win in the primary election against 11 opponents.
And yes, some of the 11 are spending their own money on advertising, which is a tactic which can prove ineffective. Right now, according to Bayoubuzz.com (linked above), Jindal's closest "competition" is NO businessman John Georges, who might receive the endorsements of such as Ray Nagin and thus possibly attract the bulk of the African American vote and hold Jindal under 50% in the primary. This would necessitate a runoff election, which Bobby Jindal would win.
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Soon-to-be Governor Bobby Jindal might not need a runoff. 11 Comments (0 topical, 11 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
... as you can get in Louisiana politics. On the other hand, I don't like the idea that he still has a massive amount of money left in the bank. Boasso, Georges, and Foster are all going for broak in a determined attempt to keep Jindal under the 50% mark so that one of them can square off with Jindal in the run-off. If that happens, they could make it interesting. The one thing Jindal hasn't shown that he's got right now is the proverbial killer instinct. He should flood the state with advertising, hand bills, and precinct walkers in order to push him over that all-important 50% mark. If he doesn't get there, there is at least a chance one of his opponents could make it interesting.
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli
Given all the advantages he's had in this campaign, I'm still concerned he's not doing it right. He seems to be blowing it to me. He should be over 50% here. If he gets to a runoff, it'll be harder.
He's played it WAY too safe, IMHO. He shouldn't have a cent in the bank for the runoff. He can raise money if he needs, she should be trying to win now. It's been similar the whole campaign, not going to all the debates, etc.
I still think he'll win, but the only way he loses is by playing it too safe IMHO. It doesn't mean he will lose, only that he might. He's set up a situation where he might lose, and that's very unfortunate.
“I am telling people loosen your ties, fire up the coffee pots, get ready for the weekend, ... We've got a lot of work to do.”
- John Bolton
that seeing the ratio between him and the other opponents, he's planning a "surge" in the days before the election, essentially letting the others go broke, becoming the only player left with money, and then flooding the state as you said. That's what I would do, anyway.
is that he can't be both Governor and Senator (getting rid of both Blanco and Landrieu).
Because he could handle the load, and he would win either election in a walk.
Go Bobby go!
It's war -- so when can we start shooting back at the enemy Democrats?
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
Jindal as the New Kingfish?
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
I saw that poll. If I remember correctly, Jindahl had 46%, (49% with leaners) and there were about 25% undecided. Assuming that Jindahl is considered the quasi-incumbent (which obviously isn't true) he should still get about a third of the undecided vote. This would put him well above 50%. One thing that might prevent that would be if the undecided are heavily against him, but just don't know which other candidate to support (or don't want to reveal their preferences). Another thing would be if Jindahl has a problem because of his skin color,i.e., some of the voters who say they will support him actually will vote against him. But I doubt either of these are true enough to cost him the election.
I am going to go out on a limb and predict that he gets 53% of the vote.
Jindal wins with 58%, nobody else comes within 40 points of him.
The only negative is the possibility of not having as much Republican control in the legislature as possible. I suspect there'll be at least a dozen seats changing to the Republicans in Louisiana.
The media keeps polling Kentucky, which appears to be a loss for Fletcher, but they're not polling Louisiana.
Tells you all you need to know about what they think about Jindal's chances. They're not polling for Louisiana or Mississippi because Jindal will beat his dwarfish opponents easily and Barbour will defeat John Arthur Eaveswards easily.
I have no idea, but I think his endorsement would carry some weight given the fact that he is by far the biggest bright spot for the GOP and he is already the front-runner for the White House in 2016 or perhaps 2012 if we lose in 2008.
I have heard Romney has a good chance because Jindal is a healthcare guy. Also, this is especially likely given Jim McCrery’s prominent presence on Mitt’s Congressional team. Jindal was an aid to McCrey, before he began his political career, and they’re still close.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---