2008 Presidential Open Thread
And Some Polls That Don't Matter
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (18) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
USA Today has the latest installment of the way-too-early-so-it-doesn't-matter 2008 Presidential Poll. This is a 2008 Open Thread. Here are some USA Today numbers to chew on. Parentheses are from Nov 2006.
Fav/Unfav
Hillary 58-40 (53-42)
Obama 53-19 (42-11)
Edwards 49-31 (54-21)
McCain 57-26 (48-24)
Rudy 66-22 (62-17)
Mitt 18-18 (19-12)
Republican Primary (Jan) (Dec) (Nov)
Rudy 40 (31) (28) (28)
McCain 24 (27) (28) (26)
Gingrich 9 (10)
Romney 5 (7)
Brownback 3 (1)
Guiliani v. McCain (Jan)
Guiliani 57 (50)
McCain 39 (42)
Democratic Primary (Jan) (Dec) (Nov)
Hillary 40 (29) (33) (31)
Obama 21 (18) (20) (19)
Gore 14 (11)
Edwards 13 (13)
Clinton v. Obama (Jan)
Clinton 62 (53)
Obama 33 (39)
QUESTIONS: (Answers below)
1) Did Marcotte-scandal or "I live in the Other America" hurt Edwards more in the national polls?
2) Are voters getting less pessimistic. Numbers from Nov to Feb show big jump for Hillary, McCain, Obama, and Guiliani.
3) Can anyone seriously argue that McCain is the front-runner in this race when he is now "behind" Rudy by 18.
4) Why do people take Romney seriously with such low numbers and even fav/unfav?
5) Does anyone really believe that Obama is not running for VP?
See below for answers:
1) Neither. You live in a freaking bubble. Random voters have heard of neither event.
2) Possibly. November (and most of 2006) showed very low numbers for all politicians, not just Republicans. Post election happiness doesn't seem to odd to me.
3) No. Rudy is the front-runner. He may not win, but there is no one outside the DC bubble who believes that McCain is in the driver's seat.
4) Bill Clinton. Because this is a poll-that-doesn't-matter-outside-the-bubble. Romney has serious backers inside every major state in the nomination process and in DC. He has money raising ability. He just doesn't have a national image yet. That isn't necessarily a bad thing.
5) Maybe he believes he is running for President. But I don't know why Hillary doesn't just announce that Obama will be on her ticket. They could start campaigning together now and avoid a bloody primary. Fortunately, Ds don't take my sage advice so that won't happen.
« Dueling June Obama fundraising claims? — Comments (2) | Romney Takes Heat From His Right on Abortion — Comments (34) »
2008 Presidential Open Thread 18 Comments (0 topical, 18 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
In the Republican primaries during years when the President is not running for re-election the front-runner has done pretty well. Specifically, Reagan in 1980, H.W. in 1992, Dole in 1996, and Bush in 2000. Most people expected that to be McCain in 2008, but I think there is growing evidence that Guiliani is the front-runner.
______________________________________
Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
if McCain and Giuliani stumble, he can really gain ground.
Not being a big poll watcher what do polls have to do with winning delegates (via state caucus or primaries) to get the nomination? Is there any type of direct correlation one can draw between these polls and eventual winners (at any point)?
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report
not of likely voters or those in early primary states (or perferably both). So they may not be that useful to start with. Considering how far out they are, actual ability to predict is probably pretty low. All we can really say is that if it was a national primary held today, it would likely be Rudy vs. Hillary.
Over the last two years I have NEVER seen a poll with Clinton's approval rating so high....but this is a USA Today poll so you have to take it with a grain of salt.
It's funny how many Republicans refuse to accept that he's the top dog right now. I turned on Brit Hume today and the panel is still using the excuse "Once people get to know Rudy, his numbers will go down". Uhhhh, who doesn't know about Rudy's stances on social issues by now? That's all they talk about when his name is mentioned. I don't see any surprises in 2008. It's going to be Rudy VS Hillary.
While I agree with your mother's stance on abortion, I would hate to see a re-do of '06 where too many Republicans stay home and we end up with Hillary in the White House. I will not vote for a pro-abortion candidate in the primary, but when it comes down to (R) vs. (D) in the national election, too much is at stake!
Clinton won't be the nominee because she can't win....Giuliani is an ultra-liberal and he will not be the nominee...where does that leave us?
Hunter's the only one worth voting for.
First off all, can't believe we are even talking about a USA Today poll. There's is generally a joke. Secondly, I can't believe quote on quote "conservatives" are cheerleading for Giuliani, McStain, and Rommeny. All three are a bunch of Big Government Liberals. Much like President Bush is.
I know, they are the electable ones, and understand that. But where is the backbone?? Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, hell even Dr. Michael Savage is thinking of a run for it. Where's the support for these TRUE BLUE CONSERVATIVE MEN on this blog??
Like I've said before here, I'm a Goldwater Conservative/Libertarian. And the three I named above are pretty close to it. And that's what the GOP needs. Not someone who's going to throw more Government at us.
I love coming to this place, but it drives me nuts when this place starts sounding like a infomercial for the GOP and the Hannitys of the world.
If you think this post was an infomercial for the GOP, I don't really know what to tell you.
I posted numbers from a poll and discounted them immediately as not very useful.
And if you dislike Guiliani, McCain, and Romney, then it is up to you and others to break through the front-runners. Until then, complaining about the fact that those 3 are the front-runners doesn't do much.
______________________________________
Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
Maybe it’s just me, but I think that Romney has almost no support among the rank in file of the Republican Party or the American Conservative Movement. His support appears to be limited to significant elements of the Republican Party’s leadership.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Perhaps he is the candidate for whom we have been looking.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
"Yeah! Duncan Hunter is going to beat Hillary! I am going to support him!"
What planet do you live on? And what is it like to go back and forth between reality and some mythical conservative paradise?
United States Air Force
http://airforcepundit.blogspot.com
Since when can't a conservative win? Why don't we run another one and see if he/she can take 49 states again.
I think the people out in left field are those that think Rudy will take one vote away from Hillary and Co. He won't
However, he will lose millions of Republican votes. But that might be what the party needs to wake up. If Republicans are promoting Giuliani and McCain in spite of their beliefs, the lessons have not been learned.
Why be a defeatist before a single vote is cast? My guess is none of the current top three will be nominated. We'll just have to wait and see.
this early is not good!
"During my lifetime, all our problems have come from mainland Europe, and all the solutions from the English-speaking nations across the world." - Thatcher