A Different Way To Analyze the FL Outcome
Using the Futures Markets to see Who "Won" and Who "Lost"
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (14) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Comparing the odds of winning from 24 hours ago to now, we can see how FL affected the chance of each candidate to win the nomination. Overall, FL has changed the landscape more than any other state. The McCain win has jolted him from frontrunner to likely nominee. Romney's loss hit hard as it dispelled the idea that McCain's strength was in "friendly" states and increased the feeling the Romney can't win in competitive primaries. Rudy and Huck are gone and practically gone.
McCain 81% (58%) (+23): Sen. McCain's win catapulted him from the lead to a commanding lead. The commentariat, the media, and loyal Republicans are starting to line up behind him. His lead in most Super Tuesday states is not insurmountable but is solid. He is almost guaranteed NY, NJ, CT, DE, and AZ. He leads in CA, IL, AL, OK, and MO. Many other states don't have recent polls or have him second behind Huck (GA). It is McCain's race to lose.
Romney 14% (31%) (-17): Romney's 8-1 advantage on TV ads was able to break him away from Huck and Rudy. He shoot up 5-10 points, but not enough to catch McCain. FL helped Romney in a major way: he is the only other candidate with a chance. It could have been Rudy or Huck, but Romney won the Silver. He has only an outside chance of winning, but it's still well above the 1% odds of the other candidates. As for Super Tuesday, Romney leads in MA, CO, and presumably UT. Some states don't have polls out recently.
Guiliani 1% (5%) (-4): Rudy will drop out today. He would make a good AG or Ambassador to the U.N. for either of the two GOPers.
Huckabee 1% (3%) (-2): Huck continued to fail to break out from this evangelical base. He won 4% of non-evangelicals. And his hold on evangelicals slipped into a statistical 3-way tie with Romney and McCain. Huckabee is likable, but his candidacy is probably best seen as evidence of what an Evangelical-Only campaign can do and what it's limitations are. If Huckabee cares about Party more than self-interest (doubtful), he should declare now for Senate against Pryor in AR.
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A Different Way To Analyze the FL Outcome 14 Comments (0 topical, 14 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Sorry I meant to write "majority." Evangelicals do not make up a majority of the Republican vote. Heck I even spelled plurality wrong.
Too bad for the Huckster, but I think Ron Paul has a better shot. I guess the Ron Paulians are going to rename Rudy McRomney pejorative portmanteau to John McRomney.
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I was brought up to believe that how I saw myself was more important than how others saw me. (Anwar al-Sadat, President of Egypt, 1970-1981)
Huckabee is gonna keep on running around cracking jokes playing bass and eat up Romney's chances for being the nominee. Why? Because he has worn out his welcome, and he doesn't give a damn.
I can't wait till he drops out.
What makes you think Huckabee is currently hurting Romney's chances? All polling I've seen indicates his voters' second choice is McCain, not Romney.
One more thing. Romney really needs Huckabee to stay in the race. Huckabee has a chance to win some southern states on 2/5. If Huckabee doesn't win, then that's just more delegates for McCain.
I do think Rudy is going to be on the ticket. Graham wants to be the AG and Rudy would not take the UN job in a million years.
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All at the same time.
This is gonna be 4 loooooooooong days.
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The revolution will not be televised. 1965
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Do people mean White evangelical Protestants when they talk about Relgious republicans? Can a pro-life Catholic be an evangelical? Pro life Catholics were a big bloc for Huckabee in Iowa and yet are they evangelical?
Huckabee is the default Southerner in the race and that is carrying him in the South right now. He found some sort of strange wave in Iowa, but right now he has a vote base in the South and that's about it.
Strangely in a primary I suspect the Huckabee voters would still rather vote McCain then Romney. Its a southern thing.
Exit polls ask "do you consider yourself an evangelical" or "a white born-again Christian." But it is always self-ID.
Catholics have generally gone for McCain in NH, SC, and FL (Hispanics included).
Also, Huck lost in the South. He lost in SC. He lost in FL, even in Northern FL.
Poll do agree with you that Huck voters will go McCain over Romney.
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I don't think you can call any Catholic an evangelical. At least I've never met one who thought of himself that way.
To me an evangleical is a Christian who places the act of evangelizing at the center of their belief structure. And it's no surprise that liberals hate evangelicals because they "don't want to hear it."
Those cheeky liberals just love free speach. Personally, as long as you don;t come on to my property to evangelize then speak to your hearts content.
I am not a Christain but I have no problem with evangelicals expressing their views in public forums.
Romney has little to no chance to win the nomination. I really see no way that McCain isn't the nominee. Romney and Huckabee can win delegates, even enough to deny McCain a majority of the delegates causing a brokered convention, but I don't see how they can get more delegates than McCain.
After February 5, Romney could be third in delegates behind McCain and Huckabee and even consider dropping out.
Before Huck made Lt Governor he lost in a race for Senator in Ar. , part of the reason is in Ar. the road to the Senate is pretty much via the Governor Chair.
Clinton in an accident in timing went for the President, and Huck go slid around being in the right place at the right time for a wrong guy (tucker) to be in office and creating a vacancy of convenient timing.
Sit down and draw up a parallel chart like project milestone and see how the flow goes in Ar.
Parallel the lt gov , gov and senators (for life) they work with down there and you will see it's just an old boys culture club.
Which makes it not hard to see how some have suggested Huck could even be a stalking horse for the Clinton camp.
Stranger things have happened in politics.
But if Huck hangs in here and Clinton wins don't be surprised to see a sudden parting of the waters for a Senate run by Huck that works like living a charmed life.
Good analysis on Huck, Adam. Evangelicals do not make up a plaurailty of the votes.
Huck has a better chance going for the senate but he'd have to drop out now. Or I'd consider Huckabee for a cabinet post.
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I was brought up to believe that how I saw myself was more important than how others saw me. (Anwar al-Sadat, President of Egypt, 1970-1981)