A Different Way To Analyze The NH Outcome
Using the Futures Markets to see who "won" and "lost"
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (5) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Comparing the odds of winning from 24 hours ago to now, we can see how NH affected the chance of each candidate to win the nomination. Overall, there is not much movement. This is mainly due to the fact that the markets had McCain winning at an 85% chance before the election so they had already adjusted to that outcome. As can be seen, the race is wide open and an of the candidates could jump with a major win in MI, SC, or FL.
McCain 38% (36%) (+2): Johnny Mac slowly rose to being the most likely winner before NH and got a bump after IA because markets began to expect his win last night. Actually getting the win kept him out front but didn't give him a lot of new momentum. He's on to MI to try to rack up a second win before the big 2/5 national primary.
Rudy 27% (27%) (0): Rudy's late surge strategy is still looking plausible. But his bad showing behind Huck in a rather secular state where he campaigned some didn't help. I'm guessing his sagging national numbers are canceling out the bump he would get from the fracture of the early primaries for other candidates. But markets are far from discounting the chance that his FL + 2/5 strategy will work.
Huck 15% (17%) (+2): A small bump after besting Rudy in a secular state. Nonetheless, more than two thirds of his support still came from evangelicals (who made up 22% of the R electorate in NH). His national numbers and rising competitiveness outside the South (see MI) is bringing up his odds, but until he can show the ability to appeal to non-evangelicals his odds won't jump. MI could be his chance to prove his appeal.
Romney 11% (12%) (+1): The markets had already figured in a loss in NH. He remains a viable candidate but an unlikely one. A win in MI would jump his odds but if he strikes out in MI, SC, and FL, his odds will fall. He knows he has to chalk up a win in a contested primary or his small delegate lead will be swamped on 2/5 when 1000+ delegates are chosen.
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A Different Way To Analyze The NH Outcome 5 Comments (0 topical, 5 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Just saying.
MI sure looks like do or die for Mitt at this stage.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
which puts him a slight bit behind Paul. If I included Fred, I would include Paul. But since neither has a legitimate shot, I thought it would be nicer to say nothing at all.
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At only 17% Huckabee is a good buy. He's going to win SC, which will give him a big boost, and force Thompson out (or at least marginalize him). I'm not sure who can beat him if he's the only southerner around and McCain and Rudy and Mitt continue to split the non-Southern vote.
I don't gamble. But if I did, I would take Huckabee with those odds.
Does he not even register?
"It is our choices that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities." ~Professor Dumbledore