A Different Way To Analyze the SC Outcome
Using the Futures Markets to see Who "Won" and Who "Lost"
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (42) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Comparing the odds of winning from 24 hours ago to now, we can see how SC affected the chance of each candidate to win the nomination. Overall the McCain win has made him the first real frontrunner (with over a 50% chance at winning the nomination) since voting began. The Huckabee loss has dropped him virtually out of contention.
McCain 51% (39%) (+12): Sen. McCain's win was the first of the primary season where the state was not seen as the winner's "kind of state." This Southern, 60% evangelical voter base handed a big validation to the Senator. He can rightfully claim a win where he lost in 2000 and has shown an ability to attract evangelicals, conservatives on top of his base of moderate and military voters. His momentum coming out of SC is big and his 5-10 point nationally lead may increase. A FL win would put him in position to make 2/5 into McCain Day, a FL loss and he is still probably coming out of 2/5 in the lead but by a smaller margin.
Romney 20% (20%) (0): Gov. Romney made the right call in not campaigning in SC, but it does kill his "I compete everywhere" argument. The NV win in an uncontested caucus helps if the race becomes a long delegate hoarding type of race, but it doesn't buy him much momentum going into FL and 2/5. All said, his chance of winning didn't fall while Rudy and Huck's did so it was a decent night for the Governor.
Giuliani 17% (21%) (-4): Mayor Guiliani's Rope-A-Dope strategy beginning in FL starts today. And it just took a little knock because it did not anticipate a McCain frontrunner. This large, diverse state was expected to favor the Mayor with high name recognition, strong NatSec and leadership credentials and appeal to Hispanics. But McCain's SC win will make him the talk of the town for the next 10 days and that knocks Rudy's odds to win nationally down a bit.
Huckabee 6% (14%) (-8): Gov Huckabee made a gracious concession speech after losing in a state where demographics favored him. With the loss, Huckabee goes from a regional Southern candidate to someone who has to fight just to keep his regional supremacy. Furthermore, Huck's fourth place finish (14%) among non-evangelicals is more proof that his message has not resonated outside of the evangelical crowd that identifies with him. It seems unlikely that Huck can ride one sub-group of the Republican coalition to a win. It is arguable that Huck was running for President yesterday, but is running for VP today.
FL numbers below:
McCain 53% (40%) (+13)
Giuliani 26% (31%) (-5)
Romney 16% (14%) (+2)
Huckabee 7% (14%) (-7)
Similar to the national story, McCain's win has put him in the drivers seat in Florida and Huck's loss has practically dropped him out of contention. Rudy's starting from a stand still but has been spending time and money in FL for a while. It will be an interesting 10 days.
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A Different Way To Analyze the SC Outcome 42 Comments (0 topical, 42 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Most Is voting in the Rs races are people lean Republican and some are former Rs who have left because they felt run out. The idea that these are hippies or something supporting Mr. Iraq War is somewhat far fetched.
McCain beat Fred and Romney among evangelicals. He won veterans. He beat Fred and Romney among people who thought illegal immigration was their #1 issue.
I know some people here don't like it, but McCain put together a conservative-moderate coalition that won in SC. And if he can hold it together, it's likely to win FL and 2/5.
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"He beat Fred and Romney among people who thought illegal immigration was their #1 issue."
Further displaying the ignorance of the South Carolina voter.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
Yah, either that, or, you know, perhaps your method of "solving" the immigration problem isn't the only one people believe in.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
If McCain is nominee, I will not vote in Nov. I could vote for Huckabee (my 3rd choice). I could vote for Giuliani (2nd choice). I prefer Romney (1st choice). But I will not support McCain. (nor will I eat green eggs and ham;)
I wish the press would stop calling McCain the frontrunner. He's a distant second by my count. Their anti-Romney bias got old quickly.
Why do people think the "I won't vote for candidate X" comments are actual substantive comments that add to the discourse of this site? Anyone? That, or "I hate this or that guy".
Trust me. There are candidates I can't stand and that I'll be holding my nose voting for if the time came to do that, but what's the point in spreading that all over the site?
"Fred's my conservative guru, but McCain's my President."
The futures market seems to tell a better story than the polls. McCain is definitely in the lead. Whether that proves to be a momentum builder or killer is yet to be seen.
So far no one has been able to put together two wins in a row. If McCain can do it in Florida we will see that he finally has momentum. If he loses Florida I don't know how we can avoid a brokered convention.
"So far no one has been able to put together two wins in a row."
How soon they forget.
Romney won MI and the very next contest, NV.
but six hours after his impressive win in Nevada his momentum carried him to a fourth place finish in South Carolina. At this point the only two wins in a row that will matter will be if McCain can now pull it off in Florida.
Momentum is irrelevant in this campaign. The schedule is too compressed for any momentum to develop. Everyone should have realized this by now. Voters are smarter and more informed than in the past; they're refusing to be swayed by media biased reporting regarding "momentum". They're going to vote as they want to vote, regardless of what pundits tell them.
Please take a moment and open these links and look at the graphs:
Then look me in the eyes and tell me momentum doesn't matter. McCain was tied for 5th nationally when the primary season began. He leads by almost 10 points now. Whether one likes it or not, momentum matters.
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There is nothing like actual data to refute such ignorant statements. But that won't stop them from repeating what they are told by others ...
MOlsen6
Proud supporter of McCain '00 and McCain '08
Then look me in the eyes and tell me momentum doesn't matter. McCain was tied for 5th nationally when the primary season began. He leads by almost 10 points now. Whether one likes it or not, momentum matters.
And Rudy lead the polls until the voting started, and Romney, who now leads in delegate count, had the least national numbers.
Also, What happenned after Huckabee's win in Iowa, he lost to both McCain and Romney.
What happenned after NH, Romney beat McCain in MI
What happened after Romney win in MI, he lost SC.
MO is meaninless as are national poll numbers.
and I'll play by the ones the campaigns are using. We'll see which one makes better predictions. I think the person with a 10 point lead on 2/5 does very well. I think McCain's NH and SC wins are why he is leading nationally. And I think Romney's WY and NV wins haven't increased his national numbers. A FL win will help someone. Those are my predictions based on the MO Theory.
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Generally I have liked your analysis posts - that siad I would heavily challenge you if you conclude that Momentum is why McCain is where he is. Instead, I would ague he has ran the better campaign and has come across as the more appealing candidate to enough of the voters - that is, even if the voters in South Carolina were completely unaware of what happened in New Hampshire I would bet the resutls would have been the same.
For evidence I would look to posts like the one from Absentee -which showed an attraction to McCain over Thompson based on his appeal at campaign events. I also would caution that one cannot test the momentum theory by changes in prediction markets or polls alone. If we really wanted to test it, we should add a question to exit polls in Florida designed to refute the theory (mos direct would be if Huckabee had one in South Carolina would your vote be different today). If anything, that McCains winning would lead to a change in polls while Romney's wouldn't would seem to work agaisnt the theory that it is driven by 'momentum' unless you start to define that word so narrowly to be a ex-post facto tautology - if an event leads to changes in the polls said event has driven momentum.
It's like the constant appeal to momentum by broadcasters in sporting events - 'momentum' changes so many times in their minds that you really have to question whether said momentum has any impact at all.
McCain would not have succeeded in either NH or SC if not for crossover votes.
Yet their votes may have provided the momentum necessary to leave conservatives stuck with a choice between Democrat and Democrat lite in November.
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
momentum appears to have been irrelevant. The winner in one state has mostly stumbled in the next. It appears that a win has made the candidate a target rather than giving him momentum.
However, if McCain wins Florida after winning South Carolina I think he will pick up momentum and be in good shape for 2/5, which is as close as it comes to a national primary. Having momentum in a national primary should be very beneficial.
Your comment that Huckabee is maneuvering to be named a running candidate for Vice President is interesting. I had not thought of that but I think that it holds some truth.
Huckabee would potentially help bring in the Evangelical vote for McCain or Giuliani. But then again, the Evangelicals' really only alternative is to not vote. I can't imagine them polling for Clinton (who, lets face it, is going to get the nomination).
In my mind, Thompson would be a more favorable Vice President in comparison to Huckabee. Thompson is more likeable to the general populous. Democrats and Independents will eat up Huckabee and his politically incorrect positions (such as his support of the confederate flag, his comments on placing a quarantine on AIDS victims- admittedly this is old but the Democrats will surely bring this up . . .).
But I'm getting ahead of myself. Huckabee and Thompson are still officially in the running for the nomination. I just thought that the idea of who will be the VP was an interesting momentary diversion.
I don't want Huck as VP. But if he keeps making a strong showing among religious voters, he would be a good fit with Rudy (or McCain).
I still hope McCain will choose GOV Sanford (SC) or GOV Pawlenty (MN).
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So the choice is either 4-8 years of McCain plus 4-8 years of Huckabee versus 4 years of Clinton or Obama followed by a Republican backlash in 2012? I'd choose the latter.
I'd vote for McCain in the general, but only if he picks a decent VP. Huckabee doesn't cut it.
Hoping McCain tacks right.
It was in McCain's interest to continue--occasionally--emphasizing the points on which he disagrees with conservatives, in order to attract the strong non-Republican vote in NH, MI, and SC.
But now, I would be very happy if he were to spend some time rallying the conservative coalition. Not by doing any major flip-flops (tho I would be very happy if he would say that "changing circumstances" have led him to think that he no longer supports federal funding of embryonic stem-cell research), but just by a change of emphasis. Talk up your commitment to solid judges, pro-life cause, war on terror--even more than now. And stop being the maverick-jerk. Time to be the leader, man.
And another point in McCain's favor--he has shown an ability to do well among Catholic voters, including the socially-conservative practicing Catholics. That group is a major swing constituency, and is a key to the midwest.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
In SC, seeing him so passionate about cutting spending, cutting pork, and committing to Reaganite small government was heartening.
Also, you are right that McCain is a good fit for the midwest swing voters. I think MN, WI, and MI are the type of states that McCain will outperform Bush and all 3 were close in 2004 (within 3 points).
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While I think this remains wide open, a Florida win definitely would make McCain the frontrunner going into 2/5. A Romney or Giuliani win would set up a head to head contest between McCain and the Florida winner.
I probably should have written that because I had thought the same thing. I've long been on record believing a candidate will get a majority of delegates. I have also been consistently predicting that 2/5 leaves at most 3 candidates. Post 2/5, the Rs will probably look like the Ds today. 2 frontrunners getting all the press and a third hanger-on.
It will be McCain-Rudy or McCain-Romney with the other trying to get enough delegates to prevent a majority. FL and 2/5 will determine who the 2nd frontrunner is and what kind of margin there will be between 1 and 2 on delegates.
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So McCain is somehow the frontrunner with the least delegates? O-kay. Makes little sense to me, but some people seen intent on naming him that.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
The Intrade numbers are in the original post. Romney is trading at 20% which is 5:1 odds. If you think he's the frontrunner, then go buy some cheap shares of Romney.
To me, looking at where people are willing to risk their money is more important than a tiny number of delegates that have so far been determined.
This is especially so because every campaign has been structured around the goal of getting momentum for 2/5. Then on 2/5 that momentum turns into delegates. Thus, pre-2/5, the momentum matters a lot. After 2/5, it's a delegate race. Every campaign was working under these general guidelines, including Romney.
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but you wrote: "Gov. Romney made the right call in not campaigning in SC." Actually, Mitt Romney campaigned longer and harder, spent more money, and owned the television commercial market with over half of them in this contest.
That said, his announcement several days before the contest that he was not going to contest the primary was good because it gave him some deniability when it became obvious that he would not win the State.
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Well over 70% of the Republicans in SC voted for candidates Rush Limbaugh railed against daily. Talk Radio continues to prove impotent at every level, ineffective in helping the GOP in local, regional, and national elections. As Talk Radio has grown its market share - Limbaugh, Hannity, Jason Lewis, et al - the GOP is losing moderates, independents, and virtually all minorities.
By ratcheting up the rhetoric to attract and retain Angry White Males, they are killing the GOP's chances to move beyond the image of being racists, war profiteers, and the party of Crony Capitalism.
Roger Ailes, Rush Limbaugh, and the dozens of other right-wing radio hosts are destroying the GOP. The only hope will be if Limbaugh Loses Florida as well. Limbaugh's stable of candidates? Mitt Romney, Judy & Rudy, and Fred Thompson.
he claims not to endorse and then rags on everyone he does not want to win. He has lost all credibilty with me, and I used to love the guy. He lost me with the word rhino. LOL
but to his influence.
The fact the top two finishers in SC were pronounced by Rush to essentially be unacceptable shows the limits of his influence.
Of course, if he had endorsed someone early in the process (say before the Huckaboom) things may have turned out differently.
due to his attacks on McCain. But he's an opinion leader, so he is free to have his opinion. And I'm free to turn him off.
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Rush has only risen in my eyes with his attacks on McCain. He's stayed true to his principles and true to conservatism. And the brand of conservatism that Rush endorses and that Reagan lived bear little resemblance to the kind McCain claims (ever so vaguley) as his own.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
I respect Rush, but he's not a king maker. Plus, I don't think he is the sole arbiter of conservatism. Didn't he just claim that Newt Gingrich was not a conservative?
I need you to do something for me: I need you specifically disavow that implicit claim that "Angry White Males" are the base, and that such people are racists and whatnot.
Next post.
For someone who just joined the site! Remember, Rush has the right to say what he wants. You also have the right not to listen to him.
...that collecting fully a THIRD of the vote in a state with an open primary (in which the Democrats don't vote for another week) is grounds for being the prohibitive front-runner.
Was listening to McCain's victory speech from SC, and it seemed largely talking about duty, obligation, and civic republicanism (note the small "r"). I agree that he has served his country dutifully for a very long time, but feeling like you are running for President out of a sense of duty or obligation seems off-putting to me, and possibly power-hungry. Considering his tendency for "bipartisanship" (read "capitulation to the left"), that's a pretty distasteful combination to me.
Finally, the mentioning of civic republicanism... possible one of the few things that has irked me most from any candidate (short of anything that escapes the lips of John Edwards or Dennis Kucinich) is that he extolled his supporters for "doing what every American ought to do" by voting in the primary. It's a nice-sounding ideal, but I don't think it's a wise tactic... if anything, we have too many people voting in America, not too few.
McCain still hasn't shown that he can get the support of Republicans, yet he seems to be being cast into the "inevitable" candidate model that Hillary was in six months ago. Rather hard to figure out from a candidate who could win Florida and theoretically still be behind Mitt Romney in total pledged delegates...
"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk