Redstate

Or, the Super-delegate that *could*.

By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 — Comments (9) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Let me tell you a story about a guy named Al.

Al's a Congressman: he's been a Congressman for going on fifteen years, now. He's supporting one of the candidates for President (Barry) - and Al's a Democrat, which means that he's also a super-delegate in the convention that they're holding in August, which means that he'd be a reasonably solid super-delegate for Barry to be able to count on.

But there's a wrinkle. While Al will be a Congressman in August 2008, he won't be a Congressman after January 2009. You see, a couple of days ago he lost his primary, which means that whoever gets elected in November, it won't be him. Some say he lost the nomination for being a corrupt little weasel. some say he lost it for not being enough against the war. Some even indicate that either reason would do. Anyway you look at it, he's out. Worse, the people who helped get rid of him - who aren't even from his district - are a lot of the same people that back Barry. So there's that.

Now, Al is a little heart-broken right now. He's been doing this for 15 years. He likes doing this. He likes the attention, the regard, the automatic deferment. The pay is surprisingly low for being one of the people who run the most powerful country on the planet, but the fringe benefits - especially the intangibles - are very nice, very nice. And it all goes away in a few months. So sad.

And then the phone rings.

It's Hil! The other person running for President in Al's party, and she couldn't be nicer. I just wanted to get in touch, see how you were doing. I'm going to miss you around the Hill. It was a real shame, what happened to you - and I just want you to know that, if you ever need anything, please don't hesitate to call...

In fact, we should do lunch next week.

Al's been on the Hill for 15 years, and he's not an idiot. He knows an offer when he hears it.

Now, here's the thing. The question is not Will Al take the offer? The question is How do I convert this scenario into something that can be crunched on a spreadsheet? Because there are 794 more Als out there, all of whom have their own story. How do you quantify this sort of political calculation?

Read on.

The answer is, of course, you can't. There's been a regrettable tendency to treat the Democratic super-delegates as if they were potatoes: slightly different on the outside, but all effectively the same, and pretty darn interchangeable. That's a mistake. They have only one thing in common: the Democratic Party decided to give them a share in determining the candidate.

A lot of people are telling us that these men and women will be voting one way, or another way, or even a third - but what those people are really saying is that what they think the super-delegates should do*. What will actually happen is that each individual will make his or her own choice on the matter. Some will go with what's best for themselves, some with personal loyalty, some through fear, some through spite, some with what's best for the Party, a surprisingly large number (to us) will honestly go with what's best for the country, and all too many of them will make a last minute decision. And please note that none of this implies that two people with the same primary motivation will come up with the same result. Again: people, not potatoes.

This isn't the Foundation trilogy. There is no psychohistory capable of predicting mass human behavior, and even if there was something on the Asimov model the sample size is still far too small. You can still get some idea of what's going to happen, but only if you stop thinking of these people as potatoes to be manipulated, and start thinking of them as individuals to be studied. Which, I am morally certain, is the current objective of both campaigns - because they are both well aware that there's virtually no chance of either getting enough pledged delegates to win outright. It may seem shocking that the entire nomination process for one of the major parties hinges on 795 bouts of retail politics, but that's the way it goes. Like many things, the current system seemed to be a good idea at the time. We're all going to just have to sit back and watch.

And when somebody confidently tells you otherwise, look him or her in the eye and ask that person to name every potato. And who each potato is voting for. And why the potato's voting for that candidate. And what could tempt each potato. And what could never tempt each potato. And so on, and so on, and so on.

And don't let them weasel, either. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, or whatever the phrase is.

Moe Lane

*I personally think that they should all abstain and let the pledged delegates fight it out, but I ain't a Democrat any more.