Redstate

But I understand it takes time to admit that to one's self. So if he waits until the straw poll in August, that's fine. But he should not wait until IA to realize that he's running 7th in the field (or so).

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

But I thought the Sharpton comparison was a bit harsh on Huckabee.

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

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I think it helps Brownback more. But both of them should promise to donate $1 million if he switches.

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

Huckabee's race against Pryor certainly wouldn't be easy, but I think he would win it - which is more than I can say for his presidential campaign. That's going to be a tough road to hoe and he's almost destined to lose it. This is a position he actually has a shot at winning. His candidacy would immediately turn this seat into a tossup - and make Pryor a much more predictable vote in the coming year, too, as an added benefit.

Pryor is relatively popular in AR. But that is true of most Senators (outside NJ). There are more than 50% of the population that is open to voting Republican, and it is likely that 50+% will vote R in the Presidential race.

Pryor will stay popular unless a real challenger comes and points out his voting record and alliance with liberals. Recall that Sens. Allen, Talent, and Burns were popular before the campaign season began in 2006. It takes someone pointing out one's flaws to take a 57% approval rating down to 45%. Huckabee can do that, a no-name would have a much harder time.

If Pryor doesn't lose this time, he could be a Senator-for-life. The AR GOP needs a Senator to help build the party, and a Presidential year against a first-term Senator is their best chance. They better take it.

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

Currently, the Arkansas Republican party is in shambles, unable to win state wide or even recruit credible candidates to run statewide. The death of Wynn Rockefeller is a pretty serious blow--had Wynn been able to get the Republican nomination for governor, I think he would have beat Beebe.

Huckabee served 10 years as governor, and one thing he did not do was build the Republican party. If anything, it took a step or two back. He's not well liked by the non-Rockefeller faction of Republicans, many rural voters are unhappy with his school consolidation plan, and no one really embraced his anti-obesity efforts--the state legislature is in the process of undoing much of those initiatives.

And forget about Pryor's vulnerability. He's at least as socially conservative as Huckabee, is more popular than Huckabee, and even though only a one term Senator, will have all the advantages of incumbency (and since we do love our pork in Arkansas, the fact that the Dems control congress will reinforce those advantages) he's probably as safe as a one-term Senaor can be.

You are 100% right about the state of the Arkansas Republican party, though Pryor is not really that much more popular than Huckabee. At last polling, Huck was at 55%-42%, only a tad lower than Pryor. Figuring in that SUSA polls "adults" for its tracking poll and the MOE, it is probably impossible to say who is more popular.

And Pryor's ACU is 25, and his Nat'l Journal social score is 40% conservative, so I seriously doubt that he is as socially conservative as is Huckabee.

I agree with Adam that Huck would be better challenging Pryor than gunning for the PResidential nomination, but I'm not quite as high on his chances. I guess I'm somewhere in the middle of the two of you.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

That should come as no surprise to anyone who has listened to his leftwing, guilt-ridden rhetoric on immigration. Whether its implying that fellow conservatives are racist for wanting to deny public benefits to illegals, or saying that pandering to latinos is the way to make up for slavery, Huckabee can be counted on to be appallingly liberal on immigration.

But as a Senator he would probably be no worse on immigration than Pryor, and would probably be better on most other issues (particularly judges, where I believe Pryor voted against Alito), so he should give it a shot.

...and if they weren't saying it, they were probably thinkinging it. Everyone except Mike Huckabee, that is. We need to get him to start thinking about it as seriously as we are! LOL

Says the one who I suspect would not like to see Pryor ousted from the Senate, based on his comments about Janice Rogers Brown on the "Supreme Court Showdown? Bring It!" thread.

Whenever I talk about political strategy I try to be as objective as possible. Truth be told Rudy is by far the closest to my personal views.

And I honestly don't much worry about Senate races this far out. Beating incumbents requires more than a popular name. It requires the incumbent or their party to do some dumb things.

Huckabee can appeal to the SoCons and doesn't have the baggage of Sam Brownback. While he isn't exactly a FiCon his record isn't much different than his competitors.

There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy

I appreciate your analysis. But I disagree that Huckabee's FisCon creds are similar to his competitors. McCain is virulently anti-pork. Rudy cut taxes repeatedly in a pro-tax location. Romney doesn't have the same record of tax hiking that Huckabee has. Huckabee is the only R who doesn't understand economics, doesn't understand how low tax rates spur growth, and doesn't seem to get that government is not the answer to every problem.

Glad to hear you'd consider supporting Rudy if he wins the primary... :)

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

I like Rudy. I could vote for him and if Hillary wins the nomination I will strongly consider it.

Admittedly I don't know that much about Huckabee's fiscal policies. Not sure if they much matter though.

There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy

Sen. Casey proves that you can be a intellectually vapid, hollow excuse of a human being but can still beat even the most outstanding politicians, sometimes, with nothing more than a "name."

Huckabee and Pryor both have "names."

[TiTiT] The Academy: Your Logic Service Provider

Huckabee has more baggage than that. His comments on illegal immigration -that we messed up with black americans and now we have our chance to do it right- sunk any chance he had.

And what about all of those "gifts" he requested from people as they were leaving the Arkansas Governor's Mansion? That seemed kind of...weird to me.

Well, such white guilt-ridden rhetoric would not be popular with the base and real conservatives, but it was probably well-received from party leadership types.

I'd suggest you put some money on some futures markets. But for those of us who know that a tax-raising, Big Government Republican is not what the party is looking for, Huckabee is not on the short list. He would make a decent Senator, but a bad President.

And of course nominating a preacher is just what Republicans should do to reach out to independent voters.

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

Romney was hardly a slash and burn FiCon in Mass. Yet he seems to be plodding along.

The preacher thing could be a problem and if he is smart he will really downplay that.

There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy

This helps Mitt.

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

it's just that NOT taking the tax pledge really hurts. There are lots of pols who will "take the pledge" and then increase "user fees" or some such thing to raise money.
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Congressmen who willfully take actions during wartime that damage morale and undermine the military are saboteurs and should be arrested, exiled, or hanged. — J. Michael Waller

Lets have Huckabee knock out Pryor, and then get Asa Hutchinson or someone to knock out the much weaker Blanche Lincoln. :-)

The Dems have a wide roster of states where they can pretty much permanently count on holding both Senate seats (Mass, NY, NJ, California, VT, CT, Hawaii).

We can't afford not to have the same kind of lock on states such as Arkansas. Two Dems representing Arkansas in the Senate is REALISTICALLY two Dems too many. No reason we can't take out both Pryor and Lincoln with well-funded, well-known candidates.

Jodi Rell could win Dodd's seat in CT when it is open in 2010.
Lingle could win Either Akaka's or Inouye's seat in HI when it comes open (they are both 83).
Lautenberg has a <40% approval rating -- he is vulnerable at the top of the ticket.
Douglas could win an open Senate race in VT.

The difference is that we have to be as tolerant of apostasy among our moderate-to-liberal Republicans as Democrats are of their moderate-to-conservative Democrats. Democrats are smart -- they primary their members that they don't like in states where they are guaranteed to win, and let people like the Nelsons and Pryor have a pass.

http://www.myelectionanalysis.com

Lautenberg has a <40% approval rating -- he is vulnerable at the top of the ticket.

I admire the pie eyed optimism. Seems like every election cycle the Democratic candidate in NJ is vulnerable and you guys keep thinking they can lose only to see the Dem win by 8-11 points.

Lautenberg has lose approval ratings but they will skyrocket once he is compared to a Republican.

There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy

I like the Charlie Brown comment. A couple notes though:

1. The reason NJ keeps popping up is that Rs lose by 3-9 points in close matches. They just seem to lose each time.

2. If Giuliani is topping the ticket a "Giuliani Republican" candidate could do very well.

3. Lautenberg's numbers have been low since he came back to the Senate. Lower than Menendez (some how) and lower than Corzine.

NJ is quite partisan, but it is not insurmountable.

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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth

If the Rells, Lingles, and Douglases of the party would vote to confirm conservative judges, then conservatives should embrace them. Its not like a true conservative can win in those states.

I never thought I'd find myself saying this, but when Chris Dodd's senate seat opens up in 2010, I will be supporting Chris Shays over Jodi Rell if he runs for that seat. Jodi Rell just introduced an INSANE tax increase in an overly-taxed state, and Chris Shays's support for the US Mission in Iraq in the face of an extremely liberal electorate at home is nothing short of awesome. He's right there with Lieberman. I think that it's possible that he could even win Lieberman's endorsement for the seat, which would help a lot.

Shays would be no worse on judges than Rell, at the very least, and while he's not a perfect fiscal conservative, I think that he'd be much, much better than Jodi Rell. Let Jodi Rell run for Chris Shays's congressional seat if she really wants a ticket to DC.