AZ-01: Renzi (R) will retire.
That's good news for the AZ GOP
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Rep. Renzi (R) is retiring after the current term. That's good news for the Republicans because Renzi has been under an ethical cloud recently.
AZ-01 is a right-of-center district that could easily go for a Democrat in the current political environment. The district went 54-45 for President Bush in 2004, putting it 3 points to the right of the country.
That would make it a safe district if the political environment is similar to 2004. In 2006, that district would be a toss-up. Democrats feel very optimistic right now about their 2008 electoral chances and are likely to pursue (R +3) districts in the current environment. Several Ds had already declared before Renzi retired.
More district information below the fold:
Race:
58% white
22% native american
15% hispanic
1% black
1% asian
Renzi won in 2006 by a 52-43 margin and in 2004 by a 59-36 margin. When he first ran for the open seat in 2002, he won 49-46.
Republican names mentioned before the retirement announcement include ex-state SEN Ken Bennett and Rancher Steve Pierce.
With a popular D Governor and a backlash against Republican in the hispanic community over perceived xenophobia, AZ in general is trending Democratic. AZ-01 is likely to be a good test case of whether the state has shifted 5+ points toward the Ds in the last 4 years.
If there are local AZians around, who would good R candidates be for the district?
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AZ-01: Renzi (R) will retire. 13 Comments (0 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I had just read in the Almanac of American Politics that exact finding. I have changed the post and added the margin in the 2002 open seat race.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
I'm getting to the point where I just want to get 2008 over with, flush the party clean of corruption and start afresh in 2010. Let's just get all of the crap out of the way next year, so we don't have to deal with it in the future.
2008: Take the hit now -- prepare for a clean strike in the next round.
anything important in '06...
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
I think 2006 showed us that we were corrupt in many offices. In a sense, "we turned on the basement light and saw it was dirty down there." 2008 needs to be the spring cleaning election, now that we've seen how messy things are.
Plus, it may take 2 elections for the electorate to get all of the "frustration" out of their system. I can't guarantee it, but I think a Hillary presidency and Dem Congress won't be having much of a honeymoon with middle America in 2010. That'll be a good time to capitalize on the fact that most of the country is not in the left bench, and that the majorities in Congress need to be adjusted accordingly.
This district contains the huge Navajo Res, the Hopi Res, and I believe some Apache country.
Are there any Indians that could be put up for this? (Please, no "Native American" business. No real Indian I know uses the term. The big Navajo radio station is KNDN.)
The untold story (okay rarely told story) is that the GOP did well in races where incumbents weren't running. They won their open Senate seat in TN, and only lost their Gov races if the state was very blue (MA and MD), or if a member of Congress was running (IA, AR, CO). The GOP won several open house seats that I never would have thought they'd hold in a wave year (IL-06, MN-06). Getting rid of Renzi makes holding this seat very doable.
You know that we lost some winnable open seats as well...(AZ-8, CO-7, IA-1, NY-24, WI-08)
Plus, to say MN-06 (PVI=R+5) and IL-06 (PVI=R+3) were unexpected holds is a bit of a stretch. Not that they were easy, since the Dems had star candidates in each, but they were more than winnable.
"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert
Appreciate the props. Of course we lost winnable open seats, but we didn't lose any open seats that we as staunchly R as some of the incumbent seats we lost. Nothing like PA-10 (except for OH-18, which is something of an exception given the really lousy candidate and incumbent). I don't know how winnable IA-1 was (it went pretty solidly for Kerry), and CO-7 had been drawn specifically to get more Democratic over time and for Perlmutter (who surprised people by not running in 2002). We'd have done better in AZ-8 if we hadn't run a minuteman in this swing district. MN-06 and IL-06 weren't complete surprise holds, but we did better there than we did in a lot of similarly-situated districts where incumbents ran. Against such strong candidates, I'm not certain we would have won.
But I think AZ-01 is more like AZ-05 or CA-11, seats we probably would have won had the incumbent not been running. I'm glad Renzi is gone, because I think he would have been toast against a strong opponent.
would make a good candidate. He was President of the AZ Senate as is from Prescott. He is a bright guy, conservative and has no known scandals.
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Vista really sucks!
Bohner and Blunt could have a quiet talk with Doolittle and ask him to step aside. McConnell could do the same with Ted Stevens and ask him to resign immediately if he is indicted. Palin could appoint a successor and that person would have a leg up for 2008.
Hopefully Doolittle in CA-4 will follow suit.
And the numbers don't add up, I think, because there is a very heavy Native American population in the district. It's a huge district geographically, covering most of the sparsely populated Northern part of the state.
"My heart was here...I feel like I have unfinished business here." - Roy Hibbert