Redstate

Not precisely a Harry Potter title, but evocative.

By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

Roger Simon says something that resonates with a thought that's been in my head for a while (H/T: Instapundit):

I caught most of the Democratic debate tonight and I was astonished by how unprepared Obama seemed to be on the most obvious question of the evening - how he stood on illegal aliens having driver's licenses. This is the very subject he had used to nail Hillary Clinton at the previous debate, yet his answer to this same question this time was, if anything, more evasive than Hillary's at the other debate. [Video here.]

Surely his handlers must have prepared him for this question. Otherwise they are rank incompetents. So there can only be one conclusion: Barack Obama does not really want to be President.

Watching the video: it's a bad sign when the audience laughs at your answer and you didn't want them to, right?

Read on.

Roger seems to be taking the position that Senator Obama is too inexperienced to be President, that he himself knows it, and is thus not making the effort he'd need to overcome Hillary. It's an interesting idea, although in the end I can't quite agree with it. There is really no way to be experienced enough to be the President, after all. Sure, every candidate in the race will be happy to tell you how their CV proves that they're fully prepared to do the job, but they're all spinning (I say that with no disapproval: these people are trying to win an election, after all). The job entails being the final authority for the welfare of 300,000,000 million people (directly), and the rest of the planet (indirectly) - which also includes the responsibility of making sure that the human race survives to see tomorrow's sunrise. The President of the United States of America can wipe out human civilization above the township level in an afternoon. Reduction of nuclear stocks, or no. There is no adequate preparation for that kind of responsibility. So, whether Senator Obama is experienced enough to be President is in some ways a moot point.

Whether he is experienced enough to campaign for President is not.

I say this with no malice in my heart: he's not. In a lot of ways this is his first real campaign on the Federal level. His Senatorial campaign in 2004 was more of a triumphal progression than anything else; Jack Ryan's utter, unfortunately deserved collapse* made his election inevitable. Now, there's nothing wrong with taking what's offered to you, if doing so won't touch upon your honor: he was lucky enough to be able to take advantage of the situation, and smart enough to do it. He would have been better off if he had had to make a fight of it, though. Because he's not playing in a crowd that will obligingly self-destruct for his benefit, and there's a limit to how far a friendly media will take you**.

Now, what he should have done was sit this one out. Depending on how you look at it, he should have either run in 2006 or 2010 for Illinois' Governorship: Governor Blagojevich was exceptionally vulnerable to a strong primary challenge, and if Obama had lost, so what? He could have tried again in 2010 (Blagojevich has rather bad numbers, to put it mildly). A win either time would have put him in a very, very good position for either '12 or '16, as he'd be: the Governor of a large, important State; right age; possessor of a powerful political machine with which to tap into; and, most importantly, the experience to use all of this effectively. Much better than a one-term Senator.

So why couldn't he do this anyway, after the nomination process is done? Because he's on most people's short list for a VP slot, and if the ticket he's on loses he'll never, ever be considered for a Presidential slot again. I do not say that the Democratic Party eats babies, but it does have a definite taste for consuming the flesh of its failed champions. And if he does refuse the VP slot, it's going to sour a lot of activists on him, particularly if the GOP keeps the White House.

So, all in all, bit of a wrong turn there, what-what?

Moe Lane

*I am a good Party man, but I have to say: taking Jeri Ryan to a sex club when she doesn't want to go is not the sign of a fool. It's the sign of a damfool.

**Oh, he'll last past the first round; he's this year's Fresh-Faced Outsider That Speaks To The Ordinary Man And Woman. Howard Dean can tell you how many delegates that translates to in the real world, although I do believe that you should wait until he's in a good mood before you ask.