Crunching the Democratic Numbers, 02/07/08.
As snark-free as I can manage it, no less.
By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 — Comments (55) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
All data from here, and they're upfront about the numbers being speculative right now. Anybody who is trying to give you definitive numbers is lying to you: Robin Laws wasn't kidding when he compared the current primary system to a RPG that wouldn't make it past playtest. (I'll also note that this is all basic, let-the-calculator-round-it-off math calculations.)
Anyway...
Scenario 1 (FL & MI not included in final total)
At this moment, Hillary has 1,029 delegates and Obama has 929. They need 2,025. There are 2,065 delegates remaining. Hillary needs to get 48% ([2025-1029]/2065) of the remaining delegates to win the nomination; Obama needs 53% ([2025-1029]/2065).
Scenario 2 - (FL & MI included)
At this moment, Hillary has 1,219 delegates and Obama has 999. They need 2,208. There are 2,103 remaining. Hillary needs to get 47% ([2208-1219]/2103) of the remaining delegates to win the nomination; Obama needs 57% ([2208-999]/2103).
Conclusions
Clinton can "lose" every race from here on in, and still win on the first ballot through a combination of 6 to 5 splits (or 7 to 5 splits, if they seat MI and FL) in Obama's favor in the delegate vote and enough super-delegates to handle the gap. An effective 50% tie in delegates means that she does not have to force the DNC to seat the two State delegations, because she will win without them.
Winning strategy: sticking it out, playing retail, and keeping Obama below 4 to 3.
Obama can "win" every race from here on in, and still lose on the first ballot. To ensure victory, he needs to aim for a consistent 3 to 2, and get 4 to 3 delegate acquisition in each primary and caucus from here on out. He cannot allow the Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated in their current configuration without that margin. Every race he outright loses hurts him disproportionately.
Winning strategy: shock and awe. He can outspend her, but his burn rate will have to go through the roof starting... right about now, because he has less margin than she does, and it decreases every time he loses.
For both: Puerto Rico has 55 delegates up for grabs, and it's winner-take-all by district. That may represent a Last Hope by June.
Moe
PS: Don't count on the super-delegates abandoning ship en masse, in either direction. They'll do that after it's clear that one side is going to lose, not before. And "clear" is the one thing that this campaign season is distinctly lacking.
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Crunching the Democratic Numbers, 02/07/08. 55 Comments (0 topical, 55 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Obama's lucky. It took a bunch of low-probability events to get him this far, after all. I'm a gamer: we're a superstitious lot.
Still, if I had $20 to spare - which, by the way, I don't - I'd put it on Hillary.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
....Super Delegates in your above math?
Because she started out with an almost 150 SD lead and now is down to under a 100 SD lead. By the end of February, I'm betting it will be tied and stay tied until one of them gets the edge in the Elected Delegates.
...the current count of pledged super delegates is:
Clinton 193
Obama 106
But that leaves upwards of 410 currently unpledged and uncontrolled.
And if Obama can get 53%/57% of them at the same time he gets 53%/57% of the pledged delegates, he'll win the nomination.
I understand that you think that your guy has a winning strategy; my answer to it is going to always be, Is it bringing him 57% of the delegates? And that number is going to go up a touch, every time that he doesn't hit it.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
...but it'll also go down a touch every time he does, of course.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
...civil way out of this contest. Keep on then to stay neutral until there's a trend (and a sweep of February and a win of one of the big states on March 5th would get that) then push the big chunk of SD's to go with the frontrunner.
If there is an essentially even delegate count and money count AFTER March 4th, I'm in for many days of sweating, you for singing.
...we'll (the WGA) be getting a first look at the proposed deal with the AMPTP sometime tonight with a mass meeting scheduled for tomorrow night, so I'll try and toss something here if you'd really like inside baseball.
Topical, change of pace, and something of interest to our readers.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
It should be long enough for the country to get thoroughly sick of hearing about either one of them.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
You might want to check again.
There is only like 1400 Delegates left to be voted on.
There is only about 40% of the delegates left.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Sorry. [expletive deleted], why don't they use the GOP system.
Its just so much simpler, and dare I say democratic.
BTW, If obama comes out Ahead in the actual voted on delegates, he wins this.
Mark my words. There is NO WAY they are going to screw the "Black Vote" and [expletive deleted] the Obama religion/Cult/Supporters with nice old white party bosses.
That convention is only like 7 weeks away from the GE. Those 2 groups would Nuke that convention, and burn the Demo. party to the ground.
Get this kind of Nazi response. Fine, then you "Adults" goose step along without me.
[Because the commenter in question was apparently unshakable delusion that profanity made his arguments "cooler" somehow, we've decided to shut his account down until he grows up a bit. In the meantime, we offer you this fun and entertaining video in place of the profane comment he originally left here. -Leon]
They have been spending the last 16 years becoming a fungal infestation within the democratic party.
So you might be surprised and Obama might wind up reading scenes from on the waterfront come the convention.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
TO make the people feel guilty for her not doing well.
I don't think they are short of anything but ethics and humanity.
My guess is that the party bosses are scared to death of some of the upcoming primaries that may highlight the divide between black & white on the democrat side. By all means they want to avoid a contentious floor fight with the sides chosen by skin color & sex. Obama is not going quitely, & seems to have momentum on his side. Makes for a very interesting next few weeks to months...
1/She's the machine candidate, and the machine always wins. That's why they got Kerry over Howard Dean.
2/With all the buzz, Obama ahould have had a decisive breakthrough on Super Tuesday. It didn't happen. I think Barack has peaked.
3/Democrats are stupid and usually pick the weaker candidate. This is another reason they picked Kerry over Dean. Also look up Mondale and Dukakis, two complete losers from the 80s.
3/There's a real chance of these two sinking their teeth into each other and starting to draw serious amounts of blood. There's so much at stake.
Yes, there is a Clinton "machine" .. but there is a far older and more successful one remaining: Chicago ... and Obama is Chicago's candidate.
The Daley's haven't stepped in (for the most part) since Kennedy ... even though Billy Daley ran Gore's campaign and had to sit at the kid's table that Christmas; they're behind Obama.
The Clinton machine got the Michigan vote because they didn't obey the Party (only Kucinich and Clinton remained on the ballot) ... that's hanging in the wings ... AND the Florida vote: that went 33% for Obama even though he didn't campaign there ... and 50% for Hillary (who did, at "private" events).
The media ignore Obama's wins in states that don't have a black-white angle: Idaho 4:1, North Dakota 2:1, Colorado 2:1.
Obama may not have enjoyed a "break-through" because of pure dirty tricks: in California, 189,438 [non partisan] voters showed up in Los Angeles County alone (enough to change the results) and had their Presidential votes ignored because of a strange Democrat ballot "requirement."
I'm not sure who is the "weaker" Democrat candidate: certainly, Clinton starts off with a significant number of the public against her ... Obama hasn't that disadvantage.
The Democrat challenge is to find a candidate that hasn't too many votes AGAINST ... The Republican challenge is to find someone we can vote FOR.
1) Obama runs the next three weeks and takes a larger lead in the ELECTED DELEGATES (just ignore the SUPERDELEGATES because there are still 400+ of them and THEY will go where the pledged delegates go).
NOTE: At the moment Obama has about a 10 delegate lead in the elected delegates.
Along with an elected delegate lead... he keeps increasing his money lead.
Right now he's out raising her by a little after out raising her by a LOT in January.
2) We get to Texas and Ohio, but though she wins Texas, she loses Ohio and that tie... after three weeks of loses... won't hold like the Super Tuesday one.
3) Those remaining Superdelegates start to slide toward Obama and we're on our way toward the finish line.
4) Second week in March the writing is on the wall and HRC starts looking for a way out.
You heard it here first.
I didn't realize that all of the sites were counting the super delegates in the counts. CNN has Clinton ahead by 9 elected delegates. But thats obviously nothing. Makes me question the bias of the media. I thought it was pro Obama. Then again, maybe thats how they've all ways done it.
Superdelegate votes carry the same weight as delegates pleged by primaries and caucuses. There's no illegitimacy to counting superdelegates in totals.
Now, I know some Democrats might not like that their party process is designed to allow the establishment to shut them down if desired, but the facts are the facts.
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"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
...watching me and others throw a hissy fit, and I guess in a world where you guys might end up with McCain/Huckabee I should start considering that ones least most desired outcome is possible.
That said, as noted before, I believe the only DISASTER for the Democratic party (read losing the Executive AND Legislative Branches this election) comes if HRC wins, at the convention, in a power play. Won't happen, but you can still hope.
If Obama takes a slim lead into the convention and Hillary wins, we get the progressives and the black voters alienated.
1) Clinton and Obama tear each other apart.
2) They spend all their money.
3) Obama gets the most elected delegates.
4) Clinton gets the nomination through, shall we say, Clintonesque methods.
5) Clinton picks someone else as VP.
6) Clinton motivates the R voters to take back the Congress.
7) Fred Thompson is elected President.
(Hey, I said perfect...)
...elected delegates is that there are still elected delegates from last Tuesday's contest that have yet to be certified, but both campaigns concur that those are in Obama states/districts in Illinois and Georgia and so they'll go to him.
He's up by a few in the elected delegates.
She's up by ninety some in the super delegates (almost all of which she got BEFORE any of the voting ever started).
There's still more then half the superdelegates waiting to see what happens.
Obama targeted small red states with caucuses, which have limited participation. That doesn't augur well for him in the remaining larger, primary states.
Wouldn't it be funny if Puerto Rico decides the Dem. nominee? They are winner-take-call, so they'd actually be more decisive than CA or NY.
He can pick up flyover country states and delegates for cheap.
He can train his 'posse'. And he presents himself as the national candidate, as opposed to Hillary's east coast/west coast machine.
I think Puerto Rico may go for Obama big time. Hillary is too clumsy not to tick off the Hispanic vote at some point in the next week or so.
That would take a MAJOR collapse on Hillary's part between now and then (if it even goes that far). Hillary's been winning upwards of 65% of the Hispanic vote.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
The hispanic populations in Arizona and California are quite different than the folks in Puerto Rico. People of Cuban, Mexican, and Puerto Rican descent are all listed as "hispanic", but they're really not a unified bloc.
a Clinton nomination will take us back to a Bush/Kerry run. The down side is Clinton has stated in the past she would not immediately pull out our troops - that helps her with security minded independents. She has changed that tone recently though which should put her in the flip flop category. No matter how you slice it, I think a Hillary nomination would be better than an Obama one. The big question is, can McCain do better than he did in the California debate and control his temper?
--roxer
"Old age and treachery (Hillary) will beat youth and skill (Obama)"
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
I wonder if Obama's necessary percentage will go down a touch this week given the likely percentages he will get in places like Louisiana, and then spike up quite a bit after Texas and Ohio.
..."how" is up to the candidates. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
" Robin Laws wasn't kidding when he compared the current primary system to a RPG that wouldn't make it past playtest."
She's wrong. There IS an RPG of exactly that and they're playing it at MavenCon.
You going to be there, btw? I'll be over at the B5 table.
"Guns don't kill people...
"...But they sure help!"
-Paul Giamatti, Shoot 'Em Up
Which neatly eliminates all pre-existing hobbies that cost money. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
And bring the kid along. Lots of gamers' kids become gamers themselves...
You could even register the little woman for the Strawberry Shortcake RPG (I kid you not)...
"Guns don't kill people...
"...But they sure help!"
-Paul Giamatti, Shoot 'Em Up
...who can run a 1-5th level adventure in her sleep; and she is almost as well-known in her section of the online RPG community as I am in mine. :)
Seriously, we may start up again when the kid's older and we have more money. Besides, if she gets her paper accepted at a certain conference our limited vacation funds go towards buying me a ticket to Honolulu. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
But as I don't do the whole Online thing (with the former exception of CBT, in which the names Taran and Raven are very well known)...
Good luck to her and I hope you enjoy Hawaii more than I did.
"Guns don't kill people...
"...But they sure help!"
-Paul Giamatti, Shoot 'Em Up
...community." Supplemental material for existing tabletop RPGs.
(pause)
Hey, they think that I'm crazy for doing so much political blogging. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Both Clinton and Obama are intelligent people - enough to understand what's going to happen to their party if they go all the way to the late-August convention without a clear standard-bearer for their party. The GOP candidate (McCain, barring unforeseen circumstances) gets to campaign for the general, appealing to the center, while the two Dem candidates struggle to divide their base amongst themselves. Way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Dems!
Now, once they recognize that... can the two of them put aside their personal ill will for each other (and I suspect it would be easier for Obama to do than Clinton) and strike a deal for a joint ticket so they can get on with the business of campaigning for the general?
Given the respective personalities involved, I can see that it would make sense for Obama to make a deal, since he could take the VP slot this time and, win or lose, still have a very credible run for the next open cycle. Hillary, not so much - she needs to win it this time, and a VP slot would effectively be a concession of failure on her part.
And, if they make that deal, and make it soon, I think it's the best of all worlds for the Dems. They get the charismatic campaigner in Obama, the perceived experience of Clinton, and avoid the prolonged nastiness that otherwise looms.
Anyone else think this is likely?
I voted early in the Florida primary. Find out who and why.
...won't make the ticket more appealing as long as Hillary is at the top of the ticket. People vote for the guy at the top, and VPs usually only make a marginal difference. Obama will not be able to offset Hillary's negatives.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
That and the fact that the Clintons don't leave political enemies on the field let alone make alliances with them.
Except of course when they are planing to knife their allies at a more convenient time, which also doesn't work well for Obama. Since he's from Chicago, I expect he understands this, even if he plays at being naive.
And even if I'm wrong about the above, all you have to do is look at all the people Bill helped elect when he was leader of the Dems to know you don't want to be her apprentice.
The nominating procedure is rather whimsically designed due to the fact that it's never really had to matter. This is the first playtest, with the addition of some weird constraints (MI and FL).
Your math strikes me as relatively plausible, as much as anybody can game this stuff out. FWIW, Obama had some big wins yesterday, seems to be ahead in Maine right now, and is thus performing about as well as he needs to. If you don't count the superdelegates - and it's reasonable not to since their votes are not binding and can change at or before the convention - Obama has a delegate lead as of today.
At the campaign level, I'm sure there's a lot of frustration, and nobody is having a lot of fun right now trying to get the nomination. For those of us who are observers, it's pretty fascinating.
Obama's actually a little ahead of where he needs to be right now - he'll be farther along after Tuesday/Wednesday, which is when I'll be crunching new numbers - but poking around in the minutiae of the delegation allocation process will make your head spin.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
And it's mightily hard to find two sources with the same numbers. Here's Chris Bowers' calculations.
Point is, he seems to be doing about as well as you say he needs to.
On the subject of Clinton vs. Obama and the road to the nomination, Moe, Bill Kristol disagrees with you.
And since Bill Kristol is a remarkable bellwether of bad analysis, I am going to have to reluctantly conclude that you're correct.
Also, amusingly enough, Kristol cites a Kos diary in making his argument.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”