DC / Maryland Open Thread
Just to keep things less confusing.
By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 — Comments (192) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
[UPDATE] Let me just note for the record that there is something profoundly silly about CNN calling Maryland for Obama with no votes counted, yet delay calling it for him in DC with 49% of the votes counted. He won both, and I suspect that 75/25 ratio in DC ain't going up or down much. They're also calling MD for McCain. Shock. Surprise. [Further UPDATE]: Somebody rectified the silliness.
CNN results here . Maryland closes at 9:30 (delayed for weather) and DC... I don't know why the delay.
Let me anticipate CNN and call both races for Obama (and McCain, although it'll take 'em forever and a day to admit that one).
« Dueling June Obama fundraising claims? — Comments (2) | DC / Maryland / Virginia Primary Open Thread — Comments (133) »
DC / Maryland Open Thread 192 Comments (0 topical, 192 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
i.e., the concept of the both of them. Later gator to the notion of an unstoppable "Clinton Machine" and any remaining assumptions that he was some sort of expert politician.
I hope they'll soon be truly done.
to keep Shrillary alive.
We need the vast right wing conspiracy to do a little pregame warmup to knock Obama down a peg or two to keep Hillary in this fight.
Yes, time to check his lawyer work and to see if any pics of him at college at any radical rallies can arise.
Yes I do cause I suspect Mr Obama has taken some radical cases as a lawyer and I suspect he took part in some rallies on his days at Harvard. I wouldn't be shocked if he was burning a flag on Cambridge
Username? Rove? Yeah, I sense a moby.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Well mostly sweet and not so much bitter. But she is gone, by her own estimates she doesn't expect to win anything till Texas. I'm no political tactics aficionado but in a two man race having a string of losses is a bad idea.
I find sadness in that she dies suffocated by the empty appeal of a democrats vaporous rhetoric, instead of being impaled on the sharp, sharp spikes of conservative logic. That someone who so epitomized the triumph of willing self delusion over reason, that a couple who so epitomized the worst fears of the founders, should not have a more ignoble end makes me want to cry out "There ain't no justice". But, I always knew that the only justice is that we make.
In time though, Bill Clinton will be a minor footnote of a president less remembered than Millard Fillmore* and less well thought of.
*Filmore did not put in the Whitehouse Bathtub but he did put in the library.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Isn't about time we did?
And to the guy suggesting hardcore Rove tactics: people like you are why we can't get anything done in this country. You'd rather view politics as sport than focus on the issues at hand. Take a lesson from the Dems: most would rather see their team lose than Hillary be president.
You and I both want whats best for our country. That we disagree doesn't make one of us a bad person, it makes us both Americans. When they come to take our guns away, you won't care that I'm the 'liberal'.
Time to dust off the oppo research on Obama.
(a microscope may be required for this step)
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
He votes in lockstep with Dick Durbin. Obama listed as most liberal in the Senate and that's saying something. Very naive on foreign policy. McCain will take him to school in the debates provided we have the right kind of questions.
If I were running the McCain campaign, in blue states, I'd go negative right away on Obama's ridiculous statements about negotiating with our enemies. I'd hammer the experience factor. On the plus side to McCain's "maverick" stance that drives us on the right nuts is the fact that the media has ceded him the outsider title. Obama can't say that McCain's part of the Washington establishment if the media calls him a maverick. Contrary to what the polls are saying, once the campaign starts, McCain will show himself to be far more presidential than Obama.
In blue states, I'd also go on the security issue right away. "Security Moms" will go big time for McCain. Hammer away at it.
In red states, endlessly trot out the "most liberal in the senate" tag.
I think that Obama is hitting his apex right now and that the general will go large for McCain. People feel good about voting for a "first" candidate on the dem side, but in the general, they'll vote for who will be best for the country and keep us safe.
"Be intolerant. Because some things are just stupid"
- Ryan Dobson
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
I am going to be watching that Congress race in Maryland.
I guess McCain won DC too
with 98% reporting
3928 McCain
961 Huck
This is a primary, not a caucus. Yep, there's a lot of Republicans in DC!
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
GO TO WWW.VAWATCHDOG.ORG: CLINTON VOTES FOR VETERANS & MILITARY 80% OF THE TIME,
OBAMA' RECORD CAN BE SEEN AS WELL.
MCCAIN VOTES FOR VETERANS & MILITARY FROM " 0" TO 20 % OF ALL VOTES. YET THIS GUY RUNS ON HIS WAR/ MILITARY RECORD: WHICH IS BELOW FROM THE " NAVY"
WATCH YOU TUBE VIDEO AS WELL
McCain's Navy Service
« on: February 07, 2008, 03:48:36 am »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Crashed 5 jets, plus was responsible for the Forrestal fire. Surviving crewmen and those who investigated the Forrestal fire case reported that McCain deliberately 'wet-started' his A-4E Skyhawk to shake up the guy in the F-4 Phantom behind his A-4. 'Wet-starts', done either deliberately (the starter motor switch allowed kerosene to pool in the engine and give a wet start) or accidentally, shoot a large flame from the tail of the aircraft. In McCain's case, the 'wet-start' 'cooked off' and launched the M34 Zuni rocket from the rear F-4 that punctured the Skyhawk's fueltank, knocked the M-65 1000 lb bomb off it's 500 lb rated mount, and touched off the explosions and massive fire. The F-4 pilot was reportedly killed in the conflagration, along with 167 of his fellow Forrestal shipmates (including those who died later from wounds suffered). 'Wet starting' was a common practice among young 'hot-dog' pilots. McCain was quickly (they were still counting the Forrestal dead) transferred to the USS Oriskany (the only Forrestal crewman to be immediately transferred).
Description: XA4D-1 Skyhawk BuNo 137812 experiencing a wet start (note the pool of JP on the ground and the tongue of flame from the tailpipe).
Good job by your guy tonight, by the way. I'll start pointing out the inconvenient [from your perspective] truths about it tomorrow. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
I look forward to hearing your take on tonights festivities.
You know that I have to point out that Obama will likely be up by over 100 pledged delegates by the time tonight's over. At 124, he could let FL and MI have their place without consequence.
...but are you saying that he's going to increase his total by a net 100, compared to Clinton? Because my back of the envelope (which will probably be higher, but not too much) goes with 107 for Obama, 62 for Clinton*. Net 45, IOW.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
*Yes, it's wrong. But it's wrong by, say, 10 either way.
I'm saying that he has increased his total lead in pledged delegates to more than 100. According to RCP, his lead is already at 121, not including DC or all of MD and VA. (CNN doesn't have him up by quite that much, but that's because they take forever to chalk up delegates. It took them a week to award all the SDT delegates).
If Obama holds a pledged delegate lead of more than 123, then the MI and FL delegates can be seated without costing him his lead in pledged delegates. It looks like he'll actually pull that one off tonight.
Of course, superdelegates could overturn the whole thing, but if they're going to Gary Hart him, it's better to do it before the voting gets well underway (like they did to Hart), not wait until after he's already established a lead. I don't think they have the stones to overturn to vote after it has already happened.
If they do though, CrabCakes will sit out an election for the first time since he's been eligible.
...between your running total and mine is coming from.
Nah, don't feel like telling you what it is. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
are you relying on any particular news outlet for your delegate totals?
I find that CNN tends to be the most cautious, but also the most useless if one wants the up to the minute totals. CBS and RCP tend to be quick to the draw, but sometimes they have to switch a delegate or two one way or the other.
I guess you don't have to be able to count to be in the news business.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
I started using them in 2004, mostly because they didn't spin anything and didn't try to. I like these guys: they sit down and crunch the numbers better than I can, and they know when to say "I don't know."
Their only flaw is that they don't toss up stuff right away. I don't expect them to finish totaling up today's races until some time tomorrow, and it can take 'em a while to break down the races by CD.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
However, I will be very interested to see how you argue that Hillary is in a good position to be the Democrat nominee after tonight. I'll be looking forward to your post tomorrow.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
...for the actual delegates, which may be a while.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
from his point of view would be obama losing to hillary.
from a lefty viewpoint it's hard to put anything but a smiley face on the current proceedings
The cause of that disaster was the use of very old rockets and bombs.The fact that the pigtail connector for the electrical connection on ANOTHER plane was connected prematurely, allowing for a short circuit to complete the circuit and discharge the rocket. The ensuing disaster could have been greatly limited if we weren't using very old bombs, which cooked off before they could be contained. This has been documented by a very exhausting investigation. Please get the facts straight. Lord knows there's enough to criticize about McCain, but let's not make it up on the fly.
Forrestal?
Yep, McCain somehow made another plane malfunction and rocket his plane.
McCain won't be getting my vote, but jeeeez... is anyone actually going to fall for this?
McCain's plane was struck by a zuni rocket that had "cooked off" due to a utility truck's exhaust blowing on it. See the following: Forrestal Fire Diagram. There is also a video taken from the island that shows the zuni streaking across the deck and exploding on McCain's plane. (I've seen the video) The fire was exacerbated by the use of out of date ordinance but the cause was not McCain.
__________________________________________________________
The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.
because he shot down 5 enemy planes; he lost 5 USN planes.
_________________________________________________________
The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
I just wanted to be fair and point out that his rep as a flyer wasn't too good with crew. (also a lot of ribbing goes on in a military setting that can cut to the bone but that's intended to point out flaws without anger). That of course doesn't demean him personally. As others have, I posted the known facts about the fire because it was so false and needed saying.
I have great respect for anyone who flies particularly NAVY aircraft. The libs never gave BUSH any credit for brains which was they should have cause you don't get to fly jets if you're stooopid.
__________________________________________________________
The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.
meant to say that what was said about the fire was so false.
__________________________________________________________
The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.
These states all represent a big pickup for McCain and demonstrate his strength and weaknesses -- Very strong in Blue states, still struggling in Red state primaries. I believe VA, if he gets to 50% will be his first 50% win in a redstate primary.
Can Fox please cut Obama off I really can't stand listening to him. The man really comes off as an arrogant pimp
Interesting comparison. Did you think arrogant drug dealer was a little over the top?
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
and one I would not recommend using again.
Besides, pimps offer something concrete. People won't give you $50 for a collection of abstract nouns.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
He's making a much stronger case for a Republican victory in '08 than our own candidates.
***
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
the product of platitudes and class-warfare, or tax-policy and cowardice?
***
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
I don't have any experience dealing with pimps like you might have, arrogant or otherwise, but I don't think Obama sounds like a pimp at all.
but pimp would be a heavily overfreighted term.
"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.
For those who care Congressman Wynn is down 55% to 41% with 6% of vote
with mccain for months now but i have to say he is quickle looking like dole...an honorable elderly veteran who will have one heck of a time against a formidable opponent. i can only pray the results are a bit different.
"I'll follow him to the gates of hell"
He looks calm, cool and collected.
He will follow Ralph Reed's advice (and Cheney's cue, when he debated Edwards)... and that is be calm, polite and confident when he schools Obama on issues and attitude.
Obama is going to look like the college kid who debates his father after taking one liberal history class,
and be embarrassed on the issues.
Obama is a juvenile, eloquent, GQ Mondale.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Look at the total votes cast for Dems, and compare to the Rep. numbers. Twice or more Dems to the Rep voters in VA, MD, DC. That does not bode well for GOP to win any of these states in November. So why should we GOP folks care? As a Fredhead who was told that his vote was wasted here (in FL) for Fred, I'd say all these Republicans will have their vote wasted in November.
-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --
Often by a lot.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Is there a reason for this? Are Republicans living in their winter homes in Jan/Feb, and don't vote back home? I do note that Reps. outvoted Dems in Florida primary, but that was only by 10 percent and the Dems had zero delegates at stake.
-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- vote early, vote often --
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
But apparently it's a trend on the national level for decades. Presumably it holds true for Virginia, too.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
I thought RedStaters were educated, intelligent conservatives...
So, why do some espouse the dumbest idea I have ever heard--"stay home, b/c the MSM is showing us we will lose badly..."
ridiculous.
Do I need to put sarcasm tags? Or do you? I just laugh atthe idea that folks should only vote for someone who can win, not the person that best reflects their positions on issues.
-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --
And I believe that either Hillary or Obama would be very dangerous if given the keys to the White House and installed as commander-in-chief. McCain was not my choice by any stretch, but I will be voting enthusiastically for him this November given the stakes this election.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
As a fred-head, i will vote for John.
Sorry if my last post sounded rude. We are on the same page.
-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --
We WILL lose DC. Mark my words.
Hows that for bold?
Yes, our primaries often have lower turnout.
'88 is a good example.
Don't go out on a limb or anything there, you don't want to look silly come Nov!
Heh.
___________________________________
Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
If you do not care about our troops, our security, our future, our Supreme Court than stay home.
If you have any love for this country and the direction it takes--vote McCain in November.
You people are trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Voters are down, b/c our race is decided, and we are not yet energized (because we are in the White House).
before Huckabee does (sigh).
I never thought she was formidable, or anything other than a hack politician who was lucky to be elected to the Senate. Dull, cautious, cowardly, boring, statist hack.....
Obama is starting to remind me now of William Jennings Bryan, the Boy Orator of the Plains, who fired up the prairies with his rhetoric in a couple of elections in the first decade of the 20th century but never actually won anything.
I've thought for a while she'll be gone before the convention.
in OH, PA, and TX... which (despite the big MO) is unlikely.
I predict the gloves will come off and Obama will be hit hard by HRC and her surrogates late next week when polls show a Wisconsin win for Obama starts tilting the polls in the states she plans to win.
Even with his wins... they are so close in delegates...THANK GOD FOR DNC Proportional voting.
I believe they will go to the convention with things unsettled.
The transition from Obama holding 10,000 people in the palm of his hand in Wisconsin to McCain's botched cadence at an AARP meeting is disturbing, to say the least.
I can see him being competitive with Hillary, but Obama makes him look old and feeble. Matchups are everything in sports and politics. I'll be voting for Hillary in the Wisconsin primary next week.
that is a preview of how McCain will school Obama.
THis does not include the fact that Obama's first true vetting will occur in the general election.
I dont think debates are that big a deal to voters...especially in this election cycle. Heck Bush lost most of the debates vs Frankenkerry and they didn't change the final outcome. I think turnout will be the key. But without the Evangelical machine on the ground in places like Ohio, Obama may have the edge in most swing states.
"I'll follow him to the gates of hell"
Baby survives a partial birth abortion, is outside the "womb", and still is not a person (his Illinois Senate voting record). Even Sen. Boxer disagreed, and every other US Senator too.
-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --
Cheney could talk about all aspects of policy...the economy, foreign policy, social issues, etc. McCain is only on solid footing on the War on Terror.
And I also think Cheney was a much better speaker with a much smoother delivery in a debate setting.
Something major will have to happen to turn the tide against Obama. IMO, it won't be a debate.
I am saying that the same way Cheney made look Edwards look like a liberal college student debating an adult who works for a living with real life experience, McCain will make Obama look like a kid who REALLY, REALLY liked the policies of Carter and Mondale.
The debate I cited is just an example of how poorly an attractive excellent style can easily lose to a humble, informed, and experienced style.
McCain schooling Obama in the debates is one possible outcome, but it won't matter. There are essentially three groups of voters for this election, those being solid Republicans, solid Democrats, and swing voters (independents and cross overs). Solid Republicans and solid Democrats either vote or stay home. They will never vote for the other party. Swing voters can be convinced either way. McCain must convince solid Republicans to get out and vote. He is not doing that and without borrowing one of Huck's miracles, he isn't going to. Obama is bringing out Democrats in record numbers and the effect is growing. That's a serious advantage for Obama. In the solid party vote, the debates will matter very little. (In fact, there is an argument that it takes Obama doing very well in the debate to get out the R vote.)
On the issues, McCain has a record and Obama doesn't. McCain will be defined by that record, but without a significant record, potential voters project onto Obama what they hope he will be. And, being the great orator that he is, he can and will use that to his advantage. Swing voters will either like what they see in McCain or they will see what they like in Obama. Some few independent pragmatists will be swayed by McCain, but being the independent voter, they will need to be swayed by McCain's MODERATE record, not his conservative record. The message to win the swing, alienates the solid R's and cuts down on the vote in that segment.
In my view, McCain cannot win against Obama. School him or not, it won't matter. McCain can't bring enough people to the polls. Obama can.
Those here that are relishing Hillary's demise are celebrating a battle won in the midst of a war lost. In a battle with Hillary, records matter, accomplishments matter, debates matter. In a race with Obama, it's all about the magic. Magic that John doesn't have.
Looking at the world today, I'd say your scenario is more likely than not. But, there is long time between now and November. McCain has an uphill battle, but its not an impossible battle. Obama does have weaknesses, the question is can McCain exploit them.
NC
Congress Wynn is down with 11% of vote out by 55% to 41%
Gilchrest is ahead with only 1% out by 100 votes
...to run.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Where are you getting this info? Link please?
"I ain't never votin' fo another Democrat so long as I can draw breath! I'll vote for a dog first!" - Leola Thomas
I can almost guarantee that the vote AGAINST Gilchrest will be more than what he got, but he'll eek it out because it will be split between Pipken and Harris. WTF!!
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Miracles damn the math? He makes idiots out of believers. Shame.
Clearly, the math does not favor him, and he was implicitly acknowledging that, while also giving a wink to his supporters with an alliterative reference to his faith.
As for the substance of the comment itself, yeah as I big believer in the contributions of the enlightenment to Western Civ, it was a dumb comment, but I give the guy credit for trying to make lemonade out of lemons.
Heck, I think Huckabee would be a disaster as a nominee (and as a President), but the guy really comes across as a good communicator and a likable guy.
NC
Huck is not causing McCain to spend money in the primaries. He's not attacking McCain. Huck is really not taking away delegates from McCain.
Huck is running now to establish his credibility as a national politician. Look, I am just some sleep deprived dude sitting at a keyboard who has absolutely no inside knowledge about anything, but my gut says he'd like to hang in through Texas and Ohio to see if he can make a strong statement, then he'll bow out.
NC
Well go check cause right now Gilchrest is down 500 votes.
43-30.
Looks promising even with the spoiler in the race.
To win the Rep primary is to win the election, as this is a very Republican District. So we lose a Defeatocrat RINO and pick up a strong conservative in the House.
Sweet!
George W. Bush won with 62% here in 2004. This is a pretty safe seat for Republicans.
___________________________________
Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
He knows he isn't going to win, but he has to put up a decent front for the supporters. And even though he wasn't at his best tonight, McCain would LOVE to have Huck's skills as a communicator. He did very well for himself with no money and just grass roots campaigning.
I probably agree with Huck less than McCain but, for some reason, like him personally a whole lot more.
People underestimate how important "charm" is in a candidate. Obama has tons of it. Hillary has none. Huck has a bunch and McCain has none and desperately needs some.
...but he was probably raking in a lot more dough right after Iowa too. Now he is traveling all over the country and paying a full-time staff to run the campaign. He is getting ready to compete in Texas, which is a big state and is no doubt expensive.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
There was no exit polling in DC which is why they had to call it based on actual votes.
-exits
that the actual vote had a margin of error +/- 3%
:)
___________________________________
Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
________________________________________________________
Halls of Justice Painted Green, Money Talking.
Power Wolves Beset Your Door, Hear Them Stalking.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
DC for McCain. LOL. My vote has never counted so much.
I really almost voted for Rudy today, but I didn't want to be the guy that let Paul win DC. I really had no idea how the results would come out. Looking back, I wish I did.
"Livin' the dream. I'm going to Disney World." Super Bowl XLII MVP, Elisha Nelson Manning
-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --
________________________________________________________
Halls of Justice Painted Green, Money Talking.
Power Wolves Beset Your Door, Hear Them Stalking.
bypassing the smaller states and going straight to big Texas...
Isn't Hillary repeating the (failed) Giuliani strategy, albeit in a different context?
__________________________________________________________
I was brought up to believe that how I saw myself was more important than how others saw me. (Anwar al-Sadat, President of Egypt, 1970-1981)
Its just that right people haven't tried it yet.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Rudy's strength was "on paper", he never really won votes. Hillary has won some very big primaries already. Plus she has a large amount of institutional support. I'm not saying that it'll work out for her, but I'd say she has a better shot at it than Giuliani did.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
And was very muddied. Its a two man race for the dems now* and nobody likes an 0-10 record.
*Yes I am aware of Hillary's putative gender.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
First "Florida or Bust" became Rudy's strategy after he was already tanking in NH and elsewhere, he had no choice but to fall back to Florida. He tried competing before, but he found out he wasn't going to do well.
So in that context yes, that means Hillary is doing the same thing. She couldn't really compete tonight, and will have a tough go of it in WI, so she is being forced to fall back to TX, OH and PA. She has a better shot at those states than Rudy did at FL though. I hope it gets nasty between now and 3/4. Pass the popcorn!
___________________________________
Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
I think your analysis as to Rudy is dead on. But, I think Hillary may have the same problem Rudy did. By not competing, Rudy tanked in the early states, which hurt his chances in Florida--a vicious cycle for him. The more Hilllary emphasizes the importance of Texas and Ohio, the more likely she will lose big in Wisconsin and Hawaii, which will just reinforce the Obama momentum. It may be the best strategy she has left to her, but I'm skeptical that she will be able to withstand another three weeks of bad publicity and unbroken landslide losses. The similar length of time between Iowa and Florida killed Giuliani.
The Democrats aren't vulnerable to that at this point. It's now a delegate race for them.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
I don't remember election coverage being ratings driven hyperbole when I was young.
It's so bad now I think it affects turn out and momentum.
They will take a 3% win in one race and hype it to death and the next week call a 9% win "edging out".
Tonight they held back and skewed the returns reporting to make it even until about 50% was in.
I was watching it simultaneous on the Virginia web site and Fox. Fox was lagging behind the web site in percent reporting by 10/15% so they could cherry pick the precincts to keep it close longer for ratings.
It doesn't change anything but I don't like being jerked around.
That was an excuse that became conventional wisdom.
The truth that Giuliani gave up Iowa ONLY AFTER he found out nobody was willing to vote for him there.
And in New Hampshire, ABC News reported on January 8th the following:
[quote]Statistics compiled by ABC News Political Unit and ABC News' team of off-air reporters indicate that Giuliani held more events in this first-in-the-nation primary state than any other Republican except for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in neighboring Massachusetts. He also spent more on TV ads than anyone except for Romney and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.[/quote]
that Rep Shadegg announced his retirement today?
Flyerhawk, CrabCakes, anyone, please explain to me: Why in the world is this guy so popular? I just don't get it. Sure, he comes across as a nice guy. He talks in platitudes about "hope" and "change". He's young and the ladies say he's good looking. But I thought we were electing a president. To borrow a phrase from the '80s, "where's the beef?"
As a right leaning independent who has followed this race on both sides very carefully, I think the this idea about Obama being all style and no substance is a perfect example of the fact if you just say something often enough it becomes true. I am actually more clear on both of the Dems in terms of substance on a variety of issues than I am with McCain or Huckabee. I know the details of their health care plans and the differences between them in philosophy when it comes to mandates. I know the difference between Obama and Clinton in terms of freezing mortage interest rates (a dumb idea on Clinton's part). I know where Obama stands on cap and trade etc, Same with Hillary. What disappointed me with the Republicans was that they spent most of their time fighting about who was more like Ronald Reagan and stating they would cut our taxes, and stay in Iraq. There weren't many specifics in what exactly they would do about the economy or things like health care that really are the concerns of the American people. McCain's speech tonight was pathetic and had no specifics. My natural instinct is to vote for McCain, but he has to speak about more than just war and low taxes. In my 20's I voted for Reagan twice and it had little to do with ideology, and everything to do with his general vision of the country.
And I believe that as the general election presses on, the voters of this country will have a very good idea as to the vision each respective candidate has, and what kind of direction they will take the country.
With Obama, it's pretty obvious that he favors a big, expansive activist government paid for through high levels of taxation, socialized healthcare, and a wide array of left-wing goals.
McCain was not my first choice, but he generally favors a smaller, limited government and low levels of taxation. He is a budget hawk, and favors free-market approaches to fixing health care.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
And 3x more pork than the Clinton years. All McCain has to do is executive order "Everything done under G.W. is hereby canceled" and the country will be way better off!
"You and I both want whats best for our country. That we disagree doesn't make one of us a bad person, it makes us both Americans. That's why, when they come to take our guns away, you won't care that I'm the liberal."
You can take that to the bank. If elected, Obama will not pull troops out of Iraq.
Second, whatever we are spending in Iraq is peanuts compared to entitlements, welfare, pensions, and health care. It's really not even a drop in the bucket compared to those programs.
It's absolutely laughable that liberals all of the sudden are concerned about government spending when it comes to Iraq (which again, spending in Iraq is small relatively speaking), and then they are more than willing to expand government and set up brand new entitlement programs that will bankrupt us faster than anything.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Most Obama supporters cannot name 1 accomplishment he has had in the Senate. We can definately find issues we agree and disagree with on McCains Senate record but O-man has not been in long enough to have a record, other than he never voted for the war, that is important to Dem's in their primary.
We must be bold.
Instead of incremental change, we must make sweeping change. Instead of leaving any doubt about our commitment, we must wipe the slate clean.
We must enact ethics laws that leave no doubt about our state's new direction.
And we will tackle those issues together in the coming months – but the most important first step we can take is ethics reform.
It cannot be the last thing we do. It cannot be the second or third thing we do. It must be the first thing we do.
I choose that word “we” deliberately.
You see, lasting change cannot come about because one executive supports it. It cannot come about because one chamber or one political party supports it. Lasting change will only come when it becomes the consensus of our entire government that this is a new day.
Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Senators and Representatives. Legislators and members of the executive branch. We must all work together to accomplish this.
That is why I began this effort with an inclusive process, meeting with key stakeholders in drafting this strong, comprehensive ethics reform package.
We have spoken and listened to those on both sides of the aisle and across the state. Even so, our task will not be easy. There will be some who will work to prevent this change because they fear the unknown.
They fear change.
Jindal – I assume that's who you're quoting; I'm confident enough in the context that I'm not looking it up – Jindal didn't just sell doublepluschangehope. Jindal had a record of concrete accomplishments, and ran on that as he sold a specific policy vision for Louisiana.
Meanwhile Obama supporters are being instructed to talk about goodhopechange and avoid policy specifics...
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
There are plenty of policy specifics out there on the web site, they just aren't emphasized because, no matter what they may say, that's not what people apparently want to hear about right now. Is that a problem? Perhaps, I don't know. I wasn't here for the beginning of this race by I hear that Obama was dissed for being too professorial once. As far as specific issues go:
Washington, DC – U.S. Senators Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Barack Obama (D-IL) have introduced legislation that would implement extensive changes to lobbying and ethics rules in Congress. The Feingold-Obama bill improves substantially on S. 2349, the lobbying disclosure and ethics bill that the Senate passed in March 2006 and that the Senate will begin considering today. The Senators are committed to restoring the public’s faith that Congress will place its interests ahead of special interests, and look forward to working in a bipartisan fashion to pass meaningful reform.
There may be a thousand different reasons y'all can give as to why that ethics reform bill came up short or was wrong-headed. Same with the Obama-Coburn bill. Or the Obama-Bunning bill. But there it is. There's more in the record that you can mock or dismiss, but there's a record. Here.
I think the "empty suit" people are operating in bad faith. I think they're purposely not looking into Barack's record. This is strange to me since one would think RedState posters would be mining his record...
And in general the "common enough reason" noted is that, in both Jindal and Obama's case we have the very basics of our politics being renewed in a positive, non-corrupt, non-machine way by a young politician. The reason I quoted Jindal specifically is because I respect him and wanted show the poster the ways in which -- when it's your own guy -- what could seem like vagueries and bluff can turn into the sweeping sea change needed to renew politics. Why does Obama appeal to Democrats? He's new, invigorating, and not crazy.
The "Obama is a cult" thing may have it's relevancy for some of his supporters. But engaged folks should know enough to transcend what's merely an easy meme for journalists and Taylor Marsh.
The neat thing about a website is that you can disappear things without a trace, but when you speak in front of a camera you can be held to your words.
What a scam.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Google Cache works well also
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I seriously doubt that anything posted on Obama's website can easily be "disappeared." If the Republican party is not capturing every single thing that Obama posts on his website, then I am extremely disappointed in them.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
That's how your vision of him contrasts with Jindal. Jindal was forward looking, Obama has nothing to say about the future. Except hopechange.
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Obviously I realize Obamafan baiting is sport here, but I'll just take one last whack as the political tetherball to note this list of plans for the future of ethics reform, which happens to be the topic narrowly under discussion, but is just one of the many issues for which Obama has specific plans to be found for those who'd like to find them...
No further progress will be made tonight :-)
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Republicans would prefer either that he start wonking, particularly on all that stuff that he supposedly wishes to compromise with us over - or else just admit that he has no intention of compromising with us at all, at all...
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
...that was indeed what I meant. Democrats, specifically, don't appear to want to hear it right now. Or, to be fair, we'd rather hear something else. But he's in the Democratic primary, and as long as he's not corrupt or vile I'm content to let him do what he's gotta do knowing he's not an airhead and knows his wonkery. As I said before it will please no one but we're all just going to have to wait for him to hopefully win the nomination and then we'll see hwo the whole bipartisan consensus thing is actually going to work. For now, I'll go along with not fixing an unbroken primary/caucus campaign.
This is not a bonus round whack of the Obamafan tetherball, you see, because I am affirming your point...
Question withdrawn.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
...I'm guessing (HOPE-ing?!?) they're all lies of omission. But this is tedious and outside the mission statement of RedState. So, why don't we talk about why Jindal will be president in 2016 (after Obama) instead? I think that if we proceed on this assumption we can perhaps get along quite merrily...
...was too great. Sorry. :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/02/11/hannity-to-pro-obama-focus-group-n...
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I can't speak for anyone else, but I suspect that some folks are thinking "Welcome to the year 2000, dude." :)
counted. Anyone know MD politics well enough to know what's still outstanding and where Harris's strengths are?
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
70% vote out and Gilchrest is down by 3,000 votes. Wow!
liberal Republican and replace him with a conservative one in a very Republican district. Score one for the good guys! Thanks dld for keeping an eye on this one.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
I have to ask why is Wynn in so much trouble? what did he do wrong?
HTML Help for Red Staters
"If we want to take this party back, and I think we can someday, let’s get to work." – Barry Goldwater
Edwards is a young lady with a thin resume but she saw a weakness and went for it. In a way, even though both are African American, it's kind of like Obama & Hillary -- Edwards keeps hitting him on his vote, and he defends it, though they're both antiwar she is more antiwar than he is. It's an argument only Democrats could have. She came to within 2000 votes in 2006 and this time she won.
The war is extremely unpopular among African-Americans -- much more so than Democrats in general and the population at large.
I'm only finding district ones on wbaltv
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
I use that but I go to NYTimes site and it shows what percentage is out for each county and all that remains in the 1st is Talbot County the rest all have 100% reporting.
I believe Tabot is a moderate county cause McCain is cleaning clock there with only 8% he has like 72% vote so Gilchrest can pull this off.
WaPo is projecting Harris the winner!
The AP has just called Edwards the winner in Maryland over current Congressman Wynn
significance here. BTW--thanks for all your work on this congressional thing. Is every bit as important, maybe more so, than the POTUS gig.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
This is a very black district the GOP has no chance here it just shows that Wynn lost in part because he was deemed not liberal enough and he has quite liberal voting record.
Do we have another Cynthia McKinney on our hands?
articulate, rational Dem with whom we can dialogue.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
MD-04 is 57% black. The reasons Rs have no chance is because it's a 78% Kerry district.
______________________________________
Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
Some rough math says that with the votes outstanding, Gilchrest will have to outpoll Harris by 17% the rest of the way to pull this off.
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Andy Harris has indeed defeated Gilchrest in MD 1
I do wonder what this says although about each party becoming more hardcore in its beliefs. 2 Congressman defeated both deemed not partisan enough. I am not sure what that means right now in long run?
Republican to only get 35% of the vote in a primary?
"All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
So he got primaried; judging from the results, it looks safe enough.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
...the reason they called VA for Obama immediate-like but not DC is that they use exit polls as an initial determiner of calls, and they just didn't poll DC at all.
Interesting that, as TexasGringo put it, two moderates in two partisan districts got beaten - both, it seems, having a lot to do with Iraq. I think both are pretty safe in the fall.
Scottbomb, I'm not a D with a super-strong leaning between the two, but maybe tomorrow if I get work done early I can answer your question about Obama's appeal.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
It's ironic to see so many conservatives buying Hillary's talking points that Obama is some kind of empty suit. Since when do we get our opinions from the Clintons, really?
Has anyone watched Obama's policy speeches or in-depth interviews? He may not be conservative enough, but he's very knowledgeable. You don't get to be the head of the Harvard Law Review, or a professor of Constitutional Law at U Chicago, without some stunning brainpower. We're underestimating him, just like Hillary did.
Remember a year ago, when Obama launched his campaign and all the Dems were excited to have this inspiring guy in the race, but his campaign fizzled when he gave a bunch of wonkish interviews and policy speeches. People complained he wasn't exciting enough. I remember seeing him called "too professorial." He switched it up and started inspiring again and now he's within reach of being the Hillslayer.
Obama's real nature is that he's the kind of RARE policy wonk who realizes that most voters are NOT policy wonks. He knows that, to win an election, substance embellished by soaring rhetoric trumps plain old substance. He's the rare nerd who understands that out-nerding the other nerds won't impress the girls.
Any strategy that relies on "revealing" him as an empty suit is going to fall pretty flat. Pull away that veneer of hope and inspiration and coolness, and inside you find not an empty space but a John Kerry / Joe Biden type of liberal intellectual. That might be even worse, and it's certainly harder to beat.
It'll be hard to win by casting him as a liberal, too, because he works so many conservative themes into his speeches. He hits on personal responsibility and anti-dependency all the time. He talks about catching bin Laden and stomping the Taliban out in Afghanistan. (Weren't we supposed to do that already?) He talks about lowering taxes for most people. We've got the "#1 liberal" ranking to cling to, but he just doesn't come off sounding all that liberal. It's a hard sell.
He votes. He gives a great stump speech.
The policy he does seek is to raise taxes during an economic downturn.
He seeks to withdraw from Iraq, just as we are succeeding.
He claims the 2006 DNC gains caused the fall in violence, not General Patreus or the surge?!?!
He wants to talk to Iran, as they flout international law.
Again, when people here what he stands for, after getting tired of seeing the same stump speech every day, they will see he is out of step with America.
He's been unusually prolific for a new senator. I think the Obama-Coburn government transparency reform is a good thing. And the Lugar-Obama nuclear non-proliferation legislation. Can you name many big accomplishments of ANY one senator in the last 4 years? Start with McCain.
He seeks to raise taxes on the very rich, but lower taxes on everyone else. Right now with such lousy consumer confidence, maybe putting money in the pockets of consumers will do more to help business than lowering taxes on rich investors. Businesses don't just need investors, the need customers.
When the Brits pulled out of Iraq, the area they were in improved dramatically. The foreign presence is the catalyst for a lot of the ongoing violence, but even worse it's an excuse for the Iraqi government to be lazy and dependent. We're basically paying out WELFARE in the form of hundreds of billions of dollars and 4,000 soldiers' lives so that the Iraqi politicians can keep twiddling their thumbs. I don't think we should foster a culture of dependency over there any more than we should over here. Bringing our troops home is the only way to force them to get their act together. It's how we win.
Don't think al Qaeda isn't laughing at us for staying there. They use our presence to recruit. They love watching $2 trillion get sucked out of our treasury. They love knowing our response to 9/11 got more Americans killed than 9/11 itself. They're laughing at us and I want somebody who will END THEM. Running around taking over countries doesn't do that; it's just like throwing water on a grease fire. You've got to be surgical. You've got to be political. You've got to build goodwill for America and quietly prop up the moderates in the Islamic world so when al Qaeda recruiters come a-knockin' people tell them to @#%! off.
I still don't get what's so bad about talking to Iran. Reagan had the balls to talk face-to-face with the Russkies when they had thousands of nuclear missiles pointed at our cities. I want a President who will get in Ahmadinejad's face and tell him how it's gonna be, not someone with the foreign policy of a 13-year-old girl: "I'm not talking to you!" I want a President with balls who isn't afraid to stare down our enemies.
But we do agree that Obama is an extremely competent and formidable opponent that Republicans like myself underestimate at our own peril.
Like it or not, wealthy people are the ones who drive the economy and create jobs. Plus, businesses need tax cuts too. Have you ever wondered why so many jobs are going overseas? It's party due to the fact that our country taxes corporations at a higher rate than even France does.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Whatever else he is, he is not just an empty suit. Indeed, I would say that in terms of pure, raw intelligence, he his probably the most intelligent candidate in either party this year. Yes, even more intelligent than Mitt Romney.
In fact, we would all do well to remember that the original knock on Obama when he first got into the race was that he came off too wonkish. He may be a liberal but he defintely has the brainpower to be President.
Like the Clintons, we underestimate him at our own peril.
I think it is a wonderful thing that the Donks are currently trying to exorcise the hateful Clintons from their position of control. That, at least is a step forward.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
work up the healthy dislike for Obama that a good conservative should. Based on his stated positions, the man should hang around office buildings with Che Guevara posters. However, he is putting the Clintons down. America needs that to be done. If we can't do it from our side, Obama needs to do it from theirs.
"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.
We shouldn't underestimate him, but people here to need to stop overblowing him as well.
Obama is great at reading uplifting, hopeful speeches off a teleprompter, but he is not a particularly good debater.
He may be at the high point of his appeal right now and we have 8.5 months to go to the election. All people know about him is biased by the media and democrats builiding him up to be some sort of a messiah.
Once mainstream America gets to know Obama and is record, some of which is listed here:
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/jwl1975/2008/feb/12/obama_the_great_uniter
he will start to lose some of that appeal. We know that the MSM will do everything to protect him, so it is our job to get the word out.
Have you listened to his speeches?
Once you get past the hope and change crap, his speeches are filled with all the left-wing talking points: "tax cuts for the rich", "exxon's profits are going to be hard to take", "health care for all", blah blah.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
These people don't want to think, they want to feel warm and fuzzy. Obama gets that and gives them their daily stroking.
"I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place." - The last recorded words of Adam Smith.
Are part of the hope and change crap. Did you see Luntz interviewing his panel a few weeks ago, and asking the Dem focus group if they liked it when Obama said he'd raise taxes?
They all liked it. When Luntz asked them if they want to hear other politicians say they'll raise taxes, they all said yes.
!!!
Those talking points are meat for the lions. Obama is an skilled politician, no question about it. And he's as liberal as they come.
absentee
who get the warm and fuzzies when they hear that their taxes are going up and the wasteful government is going to spend more.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
It's a natural state for those brainwashed by class warfare.
I was once in a debate at a liberal blog. By debate, I mean flame war, naturally. We were talking about Social Security, and I was arguing that I couldn't understand why people who give so much lip-service to choice wouldn't want to give the people a choice regarding their retirement.
The most telling response I got was much broader than the topic, and was widely cheered as having settled the debate.
"We tried letting people care for other people, and you know what we got? We got corpses! If Republicans won't help on their own, we'll make them."
We got corpses? They cheer raising taxes because taxes are their weapon. It's how they force conservatives to pay for liberal ideas. It's how they force Americans to accept liberal policies. They want taxes raised because taxes are the instrument of their will.
absentee
they would probably say they believe in liberty and freedom.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
Not trying to be funny or combative here but one of our current contenders said that it would be better to have the money spend billions of dollars rebuilding the highway system between Florida and New York was a better idea than returning part of that money to the taxpayers. Yet, many of us support him and gave or will give him our votes. Some quite enthusiastically.
On this point, who is this Republican nominee different from Obama?
And more to the point, how are many of us not getting "the warm and fuzzies when [we] hear that [our] taxes are going up and the wasteful government is going to spend more"?

And now you are gone.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777