Grist for the mills.
Interestingly enough, this article contains nothing about illegal immigration.
By Moe Lane Posted in 2008 — Comments (6) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
(Via Captain Ed) The Des Moine Register has two new polls up of likely caucus voters: one for the Republican field and one for the Democratic. Short version above the fold: Romney's comfortably in front (with an asterick) and Edwards's winning.
Read on.
First off, the GOP: Romney 30%, McCain 18%, Giuliani 17% and everybody else below 10%. Very good news for Romney, with one caveat: the choices didn't include Fred Thompson and/or Newt Gingrich. If neither ends up running, Romney's got a good chance to hit the ground running next year. If both do, previous polls* suggest that the race will tighten up.
Meanwhile, over on the Democratic side it's Edwards 29%, Obama 23%, Clinton 21%, Undecided 11% and Richardson taking up the rear at 10% (the remainder are safe to ignore). Edwards has been concentrating on Iowa, and it shows; what may be slightly more significant here, though, is that Obama and Clinton have switched places for second. This apparently has happened a couple of times, which suggests to me that they're effectively tied right now.
So, what does it mean? Captain Ed's thinking that this is a sign of a wide-open race, and I agree: both frontrunners in Iowa have real leads, but not commanding ones. Romney will need to show that he can keep an outside the margin of error lead even if, say, Fred Thompson runs: and Edwards will need to get more than his share of undecideds in order to cement his current within the margin of error lead. And it isn't even June yet, and, heck, Iowa's got a weird track record when it comes to predicting races.
Interesting times. Interesting times.
Moe
*I know, it's Zogby. He did better than I did, last go round.
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Grist for the mills. 6 Comments (0 topical, 6 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Still a long time to go yet!
These polls are pretty meaningless. Great fodder for us junkies in the meantime though :)
Romney is the GOP version of Kerry!
I was for the second amendment before I voted against it. If Romney is nominated expect to see flip flops at the Dem convention.
it will change dramatically if Fred Thompson enters the race officially. The numbers will change so fast that it will scare even the Democrats.
Formally known as Deagle... "Golf is a way of life..."
My lawyers (Grrrrrrrrr.) tell me our challenge to the "age" issue will probably go to SCOTUS. We'll win. Or that guy who's got my job now will get to nominate a BUNCH of those new black-robed thingy people. They look tasty.
Once I'm in, the rest of the candidates will be second tier snacks.
Woof!
Looking at the Real Clear Politics poll averages, this may be an outlier for Mitt. As mentioned above, others polls (Zogby and Research 2000) conducted during the same time, that include Thompson and Gingrich (which may be more representative of the actual field come caucus time) show essentially a three way tie.
Over the course of time, Mitt has improved while Rudy and McCain have fallen. Seems like the spike in this poll may be from the "Anybody but McCain and Rudy" camp than solid support for Romney. Still, for Romney, it’s encouraging news.
Still a long time to go yet!