I-Day. [UPDATED: Now an I-Day Open Thread.]
Come now the hawkeye caucii.
By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2008 | 2008 Presidential Campaign | Hawkeye Caucii | The Expectations Game — Comments (95) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It's absolutely absurd that I should be saying this on January the third, but the Hawkeye Caucii are "finally" here. Despite the ludicriously early date for this earliest of Presidential contests, it's appropriate to say "finally" because it already seems like this particular Presidental election has been going on for over a year, and in a sense it has; since the Republicans took a beating in November of 2006, we have all looked expectantly toward the day when we would have a chance to redeem ourselves as a party. For over a year, there have been speeches, debates, polls, spin, prognosticating, spin, gladhanding, media coverage, and more spin. Today, for the first time in this year's election, votes that matter will be cast and counted.
Although the main event in this year's contest is the Huckabee/Romney showdown, each and every candidate has something they need to accomplish in Iowa. Read below for a blow-by-blow of what each candidate must accomplish in today's contest.
More below...
Mike Huckabee: Mike Huckabee needs to win. For a while, poll after poll showed him grabbing leads in state after state, and it seemed that Huckabee had several possible paths to the nomination. But as scrutiny has increased on his record, the brief leads he enjoyed in some polls in Michigan and Florida have mainly evaporated. Apart from Iowa, the only place that Huckabee is really leading anymore is South Carolina, and if he doesn't win there, the ride pretty well has to be over. However, the problem Huckabee still faces is money - until and unless he wins an actual state (probably two), he is not going to be able to afford the sort of campaign that can deliver in states larger than Iowa, much less on Super Tuesday. If Huck finishes second in Iowa, even by a couple of points, he will likely have to watch New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada breeze by without a victory, and by then all his South Carolina momentum may have evaporated - especially if Mitt Romney or John McCain manage to win two out of three in IA, NH, and MI. If Huckabee does not win tomorrow, his campaign can survive, but it will be much more difficult.
Mitt Romney: Despite being behind by a razor-thin margin in the RCP Iowa average, Mitt holds a number of advantages in Iowa. I have seen firsthand the Romney Iowa juggernaut, and they will squeeze every vote that can be squeezed out of their supporters today, regardless of weather, distance, or any other obstacle. The last time I was in Iowa, Huckabee was still an also-ran, and so it's possible that he's built an organization that can rival Mitt's in the intervening months, but I somehow doubt that this is the case. I expect Mitt to win by 3-5 points tomorrow. However, this highlights part of Mitt's problem: so does everyone else. And like Huckabee, if he finishes second, even by a close margin, this deals a severe blow to the morale of his campaign, at a time when John McCain is breathing down his neck in his second stronghold (NH). A win here puts Romney in good position to win either NH or MI and his campaign will be right on track, a loss and the picture is much murkier. Make no mistake; whatever the margin, either Romney or Huckabee limps out of Iowa tomorrow badly wounded.
Fred Thompson: Fred Thompson needs a solid third - probably at least five points above his nearest rival - to make the case that he should stay in the race. Thompson is polling behind Ron Paul in NH, isn't registering in MI, and has seen his lead dwindle and evaporate in SC. If Fred finishes fourth or worse in Iowa tomorrow, it's time for the McCain endorsement countdown to begin.
John McCain: Despite early campaign promises not to play in Iowa, and despite his open condemnation of Ethanol subsidies, John McCain has been making a modest play for Iowa, making some visits and ad buys there. McCain's people seem to be quietly hoping for a third place finish in Iowa, which would be a huge boost for a campaign that Iowa (more than any other place) left for dead even before Ames. Nevertheless, even if McCain comes in fifth with 9-10 percentage points in Iowa, he won't suffer any momentum loss because he has no expectations built up. McCain is the one candidate for whom Iowa offers everything to gain, nothing to lose.
Rudy Giuliani: Remember when it looked like Rudy would take second or third in Iowa without trying? Long gone are those days. Rudy's late-state strategy certainly looked viable for a long time, but the problem right now is that Rudy has fallen so far in the early states that it's hard to imagine him finishing higher than third in any state, and it's possible that he could finish fourth or fifth in several; and while Rudy can survive until Florida with a solid string of 2nd and 3rd place finishes, he probably can't with a solid string of 4th and 5th place finishes. Rudy needs to avoid getting embarrassed in Iowa tomorrow - a 5th place would be damaging if not devastating to Rudy.
Ron Paul: I know that I'm supposed to say something about Ron Paul's chances in Iowa here, but the last debate I saw featured Paul saying that Pol Pot sure did a great job of cleaning up southeast Asia, and he's also thought that Jack Kemp and Bob Dole were worse terrorists than the PLO, so in my view, a good day for Ron Paul would involve someone in the House Republican Caucus introducing a resolution or something kicking him out of the Congressional Republican Caucus - I don't like that slime being associated with my party. To make this somewhat relevant to Iowa, if the bazillion dollars his supporters have raised for him manages to elevate him into fifth place, one point ahead of Rudy and three points ahead of Alan Keyes, I predict that the moRons will spam telephone call-in shows and internet message boards proclaiming it the greatest and most monumental victory for any candidate in the history of politics, ever.
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I-Day. [UPDATED: Now an I-Day Open Thread.] 95 Comments (0 topical, 95 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Romney 31
Huckabee 24
McCain 16
Thompson 13
Giuliani 11
Paul 5
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The Red Sox Republican: Burkeanism, Baseball, and Sundries.
No way Leon,this campaign has been going on since at least 2000!!
Let's hope that no matter who wins the 2008 presidential election(fred) that the 2012 campaign doesn't start till 2011!
I fear that if Mrs.Clinton wins, it's going to be 2000 all over again,only with more corruption(should be fun to watch tho,bad for the nation but great for the popcorn producers).
"You never need a firearm,until you need it BADLY!"
Will put a huge scare in the so-called mainstream media, and some will decide to start playing nice (what say you Fox News?) and some will become even nastier towards this great man.
Either way, he will move on to stake his claim in SC and "rumors of his demise will have been greatly exaggerated"
God bless you Fred!
I really do. If Romney loses, we're in for a disaster.
"Politics is the business of trying to convince fools to do the right thing."
-Braden Pace
I like Romney, but I like the Romney who was a good CEO... not the Romney who can't figure out his positions on the issues.
As for Huck, I think money is a problem, but so is PR and damage-control. He doesn't the PR apparatus to respond to sustained attacks from a Hillary campaign.
I just found this site, www.fittobepres.com, that lets you rate the most important attributes for a candidate, and they have a pretty shocking poll showing that Rudy's resume and potential is the best rated.
... not the Romney who can't figure out his positions on the issues.
I love hyperbole. But let's not overdo it. He has a website. Go check and see what his positions are rather than going with the herd.
If you want to know his positions just listen to the man! He is either a liar or he is trustworthy, but his positions are crystal clear!
Don't you think he could have done a better job explaining his history on the issues?
The fittobepres.com site does give him a pretty high score for "passion" -- I don't put too much stock into polls, but i do agree with that.
... some people would stop putting their fingers in their ears and screaming "... flip-flop! flip-flop! flip-flop! flip-flop! ..." every time he opens his mouth.
Worse, is that after he has finished talking, they disingenuously go around asking what his "real" views are, complain that he "refuses" to reveal them and declaring that they "don't trust" him because of that.
Anyone can do a better job. But if you're not listening or determined to dismiss everything he says that doesn't match what you want, there's nothing he can do.
Martin,
The bottom line is that there are a substantial number of conservatives that just don't like the guy. They will use any off-handed reason, no matter how lame-brained it might be to criticize Romney. I don't know why I don't like him. His resume is good. His family is good. He doesn't have a penis problem. He isn't obviously corrupt. I just don't care for him. I think others are searching for decent reasons and aren't finding good ones, so they are using bad ones. But the fact remains, a significant chunk of folks just don't like him.
MOlsen6
Proud supporter of McCain '00 and McCain '08
It's a great deal more honest to simply say "He rubs me the wrong way. I just don't like him." rather than to continually dismiss everything he says and then go around asking rhetorical questions about what he stands for.
Not voting for him because you don't like him is perfectly respectable.
By the way, with regard to your guy; I am terrified that John McCain would play the Maverick (i.e. tack Left whenever the New York Times editorial page wails for it) whilst in office and do immense damage to the GOP in the process.
In the end, if Romney runs the table and wins the nomination, I will suck it up and vote for the guy. If he wins Iowa, I expect that will happen. He just isn't my first choice. If McCain gets the nomination, which I unfortunately think is a long shot even now, he will go off the reservation a couple of times. That is plural, and it will be annoying, but he is not beholden to the NY Times, as his strong support for "The Surge" demonstrates. He just does what he thinks is right ... I don't always agree, but I'm willing to deal with bad because I think his positives will be far greater. I think the next President is going to be consumed by foreign affairs, and I think McCain will be very strong in that role. I also think that the military is going to need significant attention to finish and recuperate from Iraq and Afghanistan, and again, I think he is an excellent choice for that task. I think there will be more wars in the near future, as well. Can Romney handle this stuff? Yes. I just think McCain is the better choice to be President, first and foremost. There is also the issue of electability, but I don't consider that to be as important. That is more of a Democrat thought process. Kerry was a perfect example.
MOlsen6
Proud supporter of McCain '00 and McCain '08
I have no evidence of this, but something tells me that Sen. Thompson will outperform the polls today. I see a solid third with a total on the 20% side of 15.
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Develop alternatives to existing policies and keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable. Milton Friedman
One way to deter early campaigning is to scrap Iowa and New Hampshire and replace them with a randomly selected state. It would be hard to campaign if you don't know which state is going first. Campaigns can't start until a state is selected.
This is such an odd contest that I have to wonder if anyone will drop out after Iowa no matter how poorly they perform. With no clear front-runner it appears everyone might stay in until they reach the State in which they lead. And they may all stay in until Super Tuesday, each hoping to pull off a surprise.
With the national vote split relatively evenly between the top 5 candidates why would anyone quit before February 5? After February 5, I would be surprised to have more than two of our candidates still running.
Cackle, cackle, oh Tim everyone knows that Iowa means nothing, why I hardly campaigned there. Besides, there a bunch of unwashed know-nothings. People will come to their senses in the other states, they better ! Cackle, cackle[ false merriment,phony smile, seething rage].
"a man's admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him". Tocqueville
If Rudy finishes behind Paul, will the media try to land a knock out punch against him?
Who should announce he is skipping NH and MI to go to SC? Huckabee, Thompson?
If Clinton comes in 3rd, is she still the favorite on the D side?
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Latest campaign e-mail from Bill Lacy over at the Thompson campaign basically says "Give us money so we can go on to SC."
I think that's your answer.
Romney wins and Fred is closer to the Huckster than people think. I like the earlier prediction of the closer to 20% side of 15%
Seems like September to me.
The HinzSight Report
Managing Editor
and claims media bias, Bill gets locked up in a refrigerator with mouth taped, heretofore unknown Hillary aide claims Obama is a pederast & resigns thirty seconds later, remaining and still living campaign spokeslug says statement unauthorized, media discovers previously unknown Clinton faults.
Huckabee claims victory as well as inventing Internet and exposing Love Canal pollution, says Christ has spoken to him and election is in the bag, flies off to anti-Papist rally.
"a man's admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him". Tocqueville
I have my bowl of fresh crow ready for tomorrow morning, but here's my prediction:
... Romney will prevail over Huck for simple reason of money and organization. The backing of the establishment, as we saw with Kerry in 2004, is a powerful thing not to be dismissed no matter how many orange hats you throw out, and in many ways the Huck boomlet is relying on the same assumptions as Dean's campaign did back then. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Huck's support go to Ron as second choice. Couple that with a huge surge of new voters for Ron and the final breakdown would be: 1: Romney, 2: Ron Paul, 3: McCain or Huckabee. And of course, N: Fred.
I explain my reasoning at Nation-Building.
and for what it's worth, I claim first author on the phrase "Huck fin".
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Dean Nation is now Nation-Building: Purple politics, muscular liberalism, principled pragmatism
A Ron Paul 2cd place showing could be disastrous for the GOP. Then again it would make sense to Huckabee since the bible mentions a World vs. Israel Armageddon show down and the only way that would happen is if we weren't there....
He will not finish 2nd in Iowa. He will finish 4th or 5th in Iowa.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
4th will "meet expectations" and will neither give nor remove momentum, 5th will pretty much put him in Keyes/Kucinich "principled nutcase" territory.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
Almost everything points to the McCain-Thompson race for 3rd as a toss up. Given that Thompson is pouring everything into Iowa, and McCain is concentrating primarily on New Hampshire, Thompson should be able to at least squeak out a 3rd place showing. 4th would kill his campaign. 2nd would be a huge victory for Thompson.
But I do hope that his candidacy does for Small Government/Libertarians what Pat Robertson's 1988 run did for Social Conservatives.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
Then again it would make sense to Huckabee since the bible mentions a World vs. Israel Armageddon show down and the only way that would happen is if we weren't there
I can come up with a half dozen reasons for supporting Israel, and I realize you were posting tongue in cheek, but if your foreign policy is based on the book of Revelation, I personally don't want you within sight of the White House.
Also, I thought Armageddon was the world vs. the un-raptured Christians, with the chosen ones (Jews) protected by God on a mountain or something.
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Giuliani
Thompson
Paul
Romney and McCain are the big winners. Thompson drops out of the race before New Hampshire.
Huckabee 33
Romney 25
McCain 14
Paul 11
Thompson 8
Guliani 5
And wouldn't be surprised by an even bigger turnout by evangelicals for Huck so that he beats mitt by at least 10. Passion beats money.
...had the most passion BY FAR in 2004, along with the most money too.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
This is the political equivalent of week sixteen of the regular football season. There are all sorts of what ifs for one or another to move on. I think Huckabee and Romney each need to win or their campaigns are ultimately doomed. I think Thompson needs to win as well, however that isn't realistic. He needs to take third or he will call it a day. McCain needs a third place finish and he will have the momentum necessary to win in NH. He must win in NH or he is through. Rudy doesn't need to do much himself however he needs Huckabee to win or he is in trouble. If Romney wins, he will likely also win NH and then have momentum forward. If he doesn't then his campaign is on life support. Rudy needs there to be no momentum going into Florida where he maintains a lead. He wins Florida and the momentum is his going into the fifth and he leads all the big states on the fifth.
Furthermore, McCain should likely be rooting for Hillary. At least a victory helps him. That's because a Hillary victory in Iowa sows up the nomination for her, and makes independents in NH more likely to vote in the Republican primary. Those are his bread and butter.
So many combinations. So much action. It is a political junkie's dream.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor
Giuliani will likely come in SIXTH behind Ron Paul.
See Zogby's tracking numbers. Giuliani declining while Paul is rising.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1411
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
where Rudy finishes is totally irrelevant. He has put himself into a pickle by not getting out early in Iowa and campaigning. Had he done that he would have been competitive and he could have won. He didn't and now he needs to root for the early states to give no one any momentum. thus, he has Huckabee as a proxy in Iowa and McCain as a proxy in NH. If those two win each of the respective states, I think that Rudy has easy sailing for the nomination. At that point, no one will have any real momentum and each primary winner will have little or no money and organization going into the big states. Rudy should be able to hold his lead in Florida and that should propel him to serious victories on the fifth of February.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
New Reuters/Zogby Poll shows Thompson in Third. Knowing what we know about the MSM and polls concerning Fred this far... this is good news and an indication that his numbers are potentially much higher!
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third place in the Republican race at 11 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped two points to 10 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul also registered 10 percent.
Also note the article and poll has Clinton fading
Democrat Barack Obama surged to a four-point lead over John Edwards in Iowa, with Hillary Clinton fading to third just hours before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.
Obama and Edwards gained ground overnight in the tracking poll, and Clinton fell four points to third place -- a finish that, if it held, would deal a dramatic setback to the one-time Democratic front-runner.
As always with Iowa polls take it with a grain of salt!
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Editor for The Hinzsight Report
Romney 26
Huckabee 20
Thompson 18
Giuliani 16
McCain 16
Paul 4
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Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
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Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
But the Kerry thing is strong evidence against it.
Man is free at the moment he wishes to be. --Voltaire
with politicians, insanity is a relative term.
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Thou art the Great Cat, the avenger of the Gods, and the judge of words...-Inscription on the Royal Tombs at Thebes
The former-Latin student in me would have loved to know that "caucus" is a Latinate word, thus making the proper plural (if it's an ordinary masculine singular), cauci.
But alas, its origin is not really known, it may come from Greek or an American-Indian word.
caucus
1763, Amer.Eng., perhaps from caucauasu "counselor" in the Algonquian dialect of Virginia, or the Caucus Club of Boston, a 1760s social & political club whose name possibly derived from Mod.Gr. kaukos "drinking cup." Another candidate is caulker's (meeting). The verb is from 1850.
http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=caucus
Because there are multiple meetings, I think it's fair to use the term "caucuses" instead of "caucus."
Oh well...I'm still saying Hawkeye Cauci.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
... be accused of caucii-ed optimism?
Just asking.
--
We would also like to know your advice for somebody like my daughter, who's going to graduate in two years, advice that you would give a young person.
SEC. RUMSFELD: Advice for a young person. Study history.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
There's a late, obscure Latin 2nd declension masculine noun, "caucus," which means "small drinking vessel." Ecclesiastical Latin uses the term for the cruets that hold the wine and water used in Holy Communion.
Unfortunately, its plural is "cauci," not "caucii."
I've no idea whether or how that word relates to our modern day caucus, but regardless, "caucii" displays a flawed understanding of Latin morphology.
Furthermore, there's a matter of pronunciation. "Caucii" would be pronounced "KAW-ki-ee," with a stress accent on the first syllable, which is to say "ii" has two syllables, and a long i in Latin sounds like "ee," Consider, for example, "Claudii," the family name of the Claudians, into which our dear Augustus married. If we wanted "Hawkeye" to rhyme with something, it would be "caucae" instead, since the -ae diphthong in Latin sounds like our English word "aye."
People always asked me, "Why are you taking highschool Latin?" Then, "Why are you majoring in Latin?" Then, "Why are you getting a Masters in Latin?" It's so I can destroy the dreams of those who come up with stuff like "hawkeye caucii." *beams happily*
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"Hobbes, what do you think happens when we die?" "I believe we play saxophone in an all-girls cabaret in New Orleans." "So you believe in heaven?" "Call it what you like."
Yeah, it was bothering me too.
Oh Jesuits, making me learn Latin.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
I see now that the initial reply mentioned a Greek noun, "kaukos." Such doesn't surprise me; Latin stole shamelessly from Greek, which contained a vastly larger lexicon.
Even so, the plural of "kaukos" is "kaukoi," which is even less helpful. Dear Lord, I wish I could edit comments.
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"Hobbes, what do you think happens when we die?" "I believe we play saxophone in an all-girls cabaret in New Orleans." "So you believe in heaven?" "Call it what you like."
Flashbacks of high school Latin... But at least I didn't take French.
I prefer Hawkeye Cauci--but if I were an Iowa State fan I might not be so pleased--it has a catchy ring to it.
I think you're assuming that I was doing anything other than conforming my story to the graphic.
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The Red Sox Republican: Burkeanism, Baseball, and Sundries.
you've got the wrong etymolgy of the word: it isn't Latin or Greek, but rather Limbaugh.
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The Red Sox Republican: Burkeanism, Baseball, and Sundries.
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"Hobbes, what do you think happens when we die?" "I believe we play saxophone in an all-girls cabaret in New Orleans." "So you believe in heaven?" "Call it what you like."
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The Red Sox Republican: Burkeanism, Baseball, and Sundries.
The Iowa Caecuses might be a better term. Almost all of the translations Lewis and Short give are tempting.
Caecus, of course, means "blind" for those of us not in the know. :> Well done, indeed.
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"Hobbes, what do you think happens when we die?" "I believe we play saxophone in an all-girls cabaret in New Orleans." "So you believe in heaven?" "Call it what you like."
And I think Romney's advantage in Iowa was that before Huckabee, no one was really challenging him. I think his support is soft and that is why it evaporated so quickly with a challenger.
Don't sleep on Paul either. 4th or better is a victory for him going into NH and that isn't out of the question.
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I am a Positivist Pastafarian for the alliteration alone.
Looking at the Real Clear Politics graph for Iowa I'm confused by your use of the term "evaporated" regarding Mitt Romney's support. Romney, Huckabee, McCain and Guiliani are each lower than their high.
Huckabee had the highest high of 35.0%. The latest average shows him down 5.3% from that high.
Romney's high was 31.5% with the latest average down 4.8% from that high. That hardly qualifies as evaporating support.
McCain's high was 23.3% with the latest average down 11.5% from that high. And yet your subject line claims that McCain is in the best spot.
If you want to use "evaporated" properly you could apply it to Rudy Giuliani who had a high of 27.7% and now sits at 6.0%, an astounding evaporation of 21.7% of his highest support.
I'm just saying words have meanings.
Rush is getting ready to "promote" his favorite candidate. More after the break.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
Based on the posts I have seen, people are overrating McCain's chances in Iowa.
I would be very surprised if he does better than a weak 4th place.
Here are my reasons.
1. Immigration is a huge issue, maybe the #1 issue in Iowa. Anti-illegal immigration groups in Iowa and Romney have been pounding McCain for days now in Iowa. McCain's amnesty bill is extremely unpopular in Iowa.
2. McCain has a very weak organziation in Iowa with only 12 staffers and limited volunteers. Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee literally have armies of volunteers and staffers in Iowa. McCain did have the Des Moines Register endorsement, but most of the popular politicians, radio hosts, and church leaders are supporting other candidates.
3. McCain has been vocal and strongly against ethanol subsidies. His position on the issue is pretty much political suicide in Iowa.
4. McCain has done very little retail campaigning in Iowa and run virtually no ads and few radio spots. His competitors Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee have practically lived in the state for the last 3 weeks and their ads are everywhere.
5. Rush Limbaugh who is on 9 stations in Iowa and is very popular in Iowa, pretty much ripped McCain apart yesterday on the air.
Who knows maybe McCain will pull a shocker in Iowa? But all of the traditional factors including the most recent polls seem to point to a 4th place finish.
I just looked it up again, and January 4 is my date. I'm losing hope on that, but still crossing my fingers.
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NARF
it was krempasky, and yes indeed, you're still in the running, as are about 4 or 5 others. Congratulations! The rest of us are looking rather foolish over that one... :-)
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
... than to underestimate the ability of a MSM-darling to come back from the dead.
Live. And. Learn.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
While I am keeping most of my powder dry until the real results come in. I can make the following observations.
1. If Huckabee does take Iowa, it will be less than the current poll numbers. He simple doesn't have the organization. So that being said, the most that Huckabee can hope for is a 3 point win.
2. Most insiders in Iowa are predicting a Romney win.
3. Huckabee may be this years Dean. His organization is put together with wires and chewing gum.
4. Rush has been pounding Huckabee for two straight days.
5. Many Huckabee supporters would rather switch to Thompson rather than Romney. Though some a small percentage will switch to Romney.
6. Rush is also hitting McCain hard.
Therefore, I am predicting
30% Romney
21% Thompson
20% Huckabee
11% Ron Paul
10% McCain
3% Rudy
And the story coming out of Iowa will be Thompson’s second place finish, and Rush will be given the credit.
Thompson comes in a distant 3rd or even 4th? You can't have it both ways. Rush can't be lauded for contributing to a success without also having to take some heat if Thompson tanks. For that matter, if Rush has been pounding on Huckabee for a week and he still wins, what does that say about Rush?
"We're hoping for the best, but we need to prepare for the worst." -Fred D. Thompson
There are several commenters on this site who seem to have become personnaly invested in Fred's demise.
Why is that?
it stems from a couple of things for me.
1) I firmly believe that FDT is not electable in the general. I do not want to lose - as I stated in a blog a few days ago I care less about preserving the GOP than doing our best to elect a legitimate CIC for the troops.
2) The issue on this site was the irrational group think (I am not including all Fred supporters) who have absolute faith in media conspiracies, polling errors etc. I abhor irrational, illogical and unquestioning thought. A more recent trend has been the suggestion that anyone who doesn't support FDT is stupid, ignorant, a sheep, on and on and on. There needed to be a counter-argument to the hero worship.
3) I am not itching for his demise, in fact I think some of his policy positions should live beyond his candidacy, but he is not the right candidate for this election.
"We're hoping for the best, but we need to prepare for the worst." -Fred D. Thompson
probably will change it again soon. I am curious what you meant by "telling" - I am actually not even sure where the quote comes from. Anyhow, I just thought it was appropriate for the Iowa Caucus.
"We're hoping for the best, but we need to prepare for the worst." -Fred D. Thompson
An interview with PBS Frontline regarding China, a few years back.
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NARF
He's said good things about Thompson, Romney, AND Giuliani. And he just got done doing it yet again today.
The more interesting question is: what does Rush say in the end if the Huckster or McCain get the nomination? I'll certainly be listening in the day after the convention.
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
You can't blame Rush for bad organization, which is Thompson's problem, not his message. Besides, Romney, Huckabee has the next best Organization and he depends on those who will vote based on Religious preference rather than substance.
3. Huckabee doesn't have as much traditional organization as Romney, but he does have the church network. Whether that adds up to something more or less than what Romney has is hard to say.
5. Most Huckabots prefer Thompson to Romney, presumably because they see Romney as an obstacle to Huckabee. However, there was a good blog post a while back that showed that when Huckabee supporters left, most went to Romney or McCain, in that order.
On the other hand, I think that Thompson's campaign believes that it will outperform the polls. If he didn't think there was at least a decent chance to grab second, he wouldn't have said that he needed to. The M.O. of the Thompson campaign ever since he actually entered the race has been to lower expectations.
Here's something to offend everyone-- the GOP candidates as mapped to Buffy villains:
http://www.cogitamusblog.com/2008/01/the-gop-primary.html
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Hillary Clinton as Glory.
Barack Obama as Mr. Trick (from the musical ep).
John Edwards as Harmony.
Sadly my memory of Buffy villains isn't good enough to come up with minor villains to play the roles of Richardson, Biden, Dodd or Kucinich.
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
McCain absolutely has something to lose. And he absolutely has to play the expectations game now. Coverage today by all three major 24-hour news networks has focused on him as the potential "big story," perhaps getting 15-18% of the vote. If he doesn't do that, the dreams of a "big story" on the (R) side will be crushed, and McCain will get pounced on.
I've had Fox News on since 7am PST. While the other candidates get sound bites, Huckabee has been interviewed at least three times. Currently, liberal Shephard Smith has been giving him a platform for ten minutes.
I used to be a big Fox News supporter. Fair and Balanced my ass!
was the same way. I couldn't stand the Fox coverage so, surprisingly I settled on MSNBC and was shocked at how much of the coverage was focused on the GOP candidates.
* PRIESTCRAFT is thus defined: “The stratagem and frauds of priests; fraud or imposition in religious concerns. Management of selfish and ambitious priests to gain wealth and power, or to impose upon the credulity of others.”
If we are very lucky multiple someones.
And if we are really lucky Hillary will finish third on the Dem side.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777