I don't care what you or I want, this race is Rudy v. Romney right now.
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (74) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
You all know I'm a Fred guy, but I'd be doing a disservice to the site if I didn't offer what I view as my objective opinion about matters political. This is just one man's opinion. Make of it what you will. Even with my biases, I am trying to be objective here.
The race for the Republican nomination at this moment is between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. You can disagree if you want, but that's where we are. This can change, but right now it is the dynamic.
As I write, Mike and Fred are going to be fighting each other for the serious social conservatives. Fred did himself no favors on Sunday in a discussion I actually thought was very good. Evangelicals who were readily committing to Fred are now breaking up with him and flocking to Mike. What Fred could have solidified, he's not going to have to fight for with Mike. That means Mike and Fred are going to spend their time fighting each other for a set of voters who may get so fed up that they stay home.
Romney and Rudy, at this point, have clear paths to take. And they will fight with each other at the top. Romney is holding his own with social conservatives and Rudy is, and pay attention here, maintaining his lead in the polls, despite his liberal leanings. While we may be going state by state in the primaries, the schedule is so compacted that it virtually amounts to a national primary month. Romney can get bounces in Iowa and possibly New Hampshire to propel himself forward at Mike and Fred's expense. Rudy will be laying the ground work later in January to beat back an encroaching Mitt.
Mitt Romney has the money and man power to be formidable. Rudy has the name identification and national security voters to potentially create a firewall against MItt in the big states.
The guy who, if he plays his cards very well in the next fifty days, could surprise everyone is John McCain, though given his money situation, I kind of doubt it right now.
With all of this, I'd say the advantage is to Rudy right now, but only by a slim margin, because Romney needs part of the voter pool Fred and Mike are fighting over. Once one of those two kill the other one, the survivor will be going after Mitt. I suspect, however, that Mitt's money will be able to deflect the attack. The question is whether it will distract him from the prize.
The road to the White House for the GOP is still up in the air, but as we draw closer and closer to Iowa, Mike and Fred have less and less time to kill each other off, which leaves Rudy and Romney sitting pretty and McCain plotting a historic comeback strategy.
And that's my late afternoon, superficial, feel the need to write something take on Campaign 2008. Oh, and I still think Fred can bounce back from Sunday's MTP appearance, retake lost ground, and kick some butt. His commercials are stellar and his game plan is sound. He just needs to stick to scripts better.