I'm going to call it now
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (89) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
As polls open in Michigan, I'm going to go on and call it. I say Mitt Romney wins Michigan today, which is going to make him extremely competitive going into Super Tuesday.
I predict that, not only will he relaunch his campaign, but it'll be themed as "unleashing the real Mitt Romney." There'll be a purge of consultants, etc. I take this as anticipating my prediction.
Whether the voters really buy it is going to be interesting to watch.
BTW, I think a Romney victory today is going to impact John McCain in South Carolina and given an opening for Huckabee and Thompson.
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I'm going to call it now 89 Comments (0 topical, 89 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
independents, Democrats and mischief makers
I guess what constitutes a "mischief maker" depends on whose ox gets gored.
I am predicting a Romney 2nd place finish. Why? Because every time I predict he wins, he comes in 2nd. So, in attempt to reverse this trend, I predict a 2nd place finish. :o)
If he wins in Michigan and then goes on to capture the nomination, then we social conservatives can kiss real border security and enforcement goodbye, say farewell to putting strict constuctionist judges on the bench and further have our business and free speech regulated.
McCain is a total sellout. Don't be fooled, Michigan voters!
...you just described President Bush as well...
"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk
I don't know how widespread this is, but on dailykos there appears to be a movement for Democrats to vote for Mitt "because the GOP deserves the very worst." They are trying to keep the Republican race in a dead heat in hopes to keep the candidates at each other's throats (like Barrack and Hillary are, they want to share the fun)
If Romney wins, it could be an empty victory.
So, let me get this straight. If democrats (aka independents) vote for McCain, thats a victory, but if they vote for Romney, thats an empty victory. A win is a win, but not county my chickens yet.
Frankly, I will be happy if the Democrats/Independents stay out of it. Traditional republicans have overwhelming supportered Romney.
that's also the strategy a number of people here at RS have been advocating. I don't like it either but hey, to each their own.
...off to pull the lever for Romney.
Later,
Crankycon
Between, Mitt, John and Mike, gotta go with Mitt in MI.
(Go with Fred in SC!!)
Anyone but Romney!
By the way, did you see the great routine that Letterman did on him? Check it out.
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Huckabee can't win the nomination no matter what, and any of the remaining cast is better than Romney, both on issues (I think that at least one core belief can be found in each of the others), and in electability.
Romney is the "true conservative" in the race?
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hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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hahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Man, politicians must just love Romney supporters, because they show just how easy it is to snow the public completely, using only your words.
Like taking candy from a baby...
Yes, and laugh all you want, but he has been racking up the conservative votes across the board, and has the most conservative endorsements.
It certainly isn't McCain. I give you Thompson, but he isn't going anywhere. And it isn't Rudy when it comes to social issues.
If by "more conservative" you mean "willing to tell you what you want to hear in order to get elected," then yes.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
...you just made up on the spot. Where I (and all other English-speaking peoples) come from, "spin" is not the word that would be used to describe "describing exactly what someone does, is doing, or has done, with no exaggeration or frills."
Perhaps you should take the Mitt-colored glasses off someday and rejoin the real world.
Perhaps you should listen more to conservative leaders like Rush Limgaugh and Shawn Hannity, who have both given the seal on Conservatism to Romney and Thompons.
...That you, Jeff, are condescending. If Thunder is for Romney, why should you feel the need to belittle his intelligence?
That is childish, and not worthy of this site.
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“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
Wait, so when challenged, you merely cite the opinions of two other people, and then are surprised when people say you aren't thinking for yourself?
The irony of that is sickening.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
I am new to this conversation, in case you didn't notice, and told you what I saw. No one challenged me.
Debate all you want, but as an outsider I see an awful lot of condescending here. That's never good.
By the way, if Bolton were running he could very well have my vote.
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“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
He's more conservative? In which incarnation? The great thing about the PanderBear is that no matter what you believe in, he believes in it, too!
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Right, what every you say, but the Republican conservative voters think different than you do. Facts are stubborn thing, and Romney has been Racking up the conservative vote totals.
One reason Romney is doing well with conservatives is his stance on the issue of illegal immigration. Romney vetoed in-state tuition for illegal aliens. Huckabee and McCain support in-state tuition for illegal aliens.
Romney opposed driver licenses for illegal aliens. Huckabee supported driver licenses for illegal aliens.
I believe Romney will win Michigan.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
I'm too fond of Huckabee, but I'd take him over PanderBear Romney.
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I meant I'm not too fond of Huckabee. Sorry about that!
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"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk
Erick, do you really think a Romney win in MI helps Thompson in SC? I would think disaffected Romney supporters would go for Fred if their guy loses MI. If he wins, they probably stay with Romney in larger numbers and put a ceiling on Thompson's vote totals.
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Damn the Obama! Full speed ahead!
If McCain wins today, he's likely to roll right through to Super Tuesday. He needs a domino to fall in Michigan today, and that domino is a Romney win over McCain.
Thompson or Giuliani to win it, but then again, that's not going to happen (unless God decides to quit making me sweat this out).
I'd like Romney to win because it would throw some ice water on McCain. However, if McCain wins, it could propel him into the nomination. On the third hand, (where is my third hand I need one?) if Huckabee were to pull an upset victory....I shudder to think....
It's going to be one heck of a day I guess...
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
I wouldn't count Giuliani out yet. If he wins Florida, he'll instantly be on at least equal footing with everybody else, if not ahead of everybody else.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
Seriously, I'll call Michigan for McCain. Faced with the revamped "Like Skywalker coming out of the Death Star" as the next nominee, party conservatives will unite behind Fred Thompson as the only conservative in the race.
Then why are more conservatives voting for Romney? Don't get me wrong, I like Thompson as my #2 guy, but saying he is the only true conservative is a stretch.
I think conservative are drawn to him because of how well he speaks on conservative values. That's just not enough for me.
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
as I've forecast, he's done. He's not a factor. Conservatives will not coalesce behind him because McCain has beaten him.
Mitt Romney is not a conservative; rather, he is a man who ran as conservative because he thought it was his opening. That didn't work out, obviously, so he's proposing government schemes to spend taxpayer money on private research and he's back to his government-mandated health care.
is it appropriate to speak in absolutes about something that you really have no way of knowing the truth of?
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
....is drawing a conclusion based on a mountain of evidence -- as opposed to what you regularly do, which is to claim to know the inside of you candidate's mind and soul.
and I value the input from you guys. I just don't think you can say unequivocally that Romney is not a conservative but instead a heartless opportunist.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
...in his head or in his heart; all we can do is look at the evidence.
Clearly both Mark and I see that evidence as pointing in one -- and only one -- direction, and as being overwhelming.
So you give more weight to certain items than I do, and we see different things. I know the reasons you dis-trust Romney, and it makes sense. If you think you are being fair than fine, but there are so many pluses to look at that I think a sincere approach to the evidence can yield a different perspective. It is just a matter of taste.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
...though I think that you're employing that "seeing into souls" bit again to determine what my "values" are.
Yes, Jeff is being more philosophical than I am on the subject; I am merely speaking in practical terms. Appropriateness is determined solely by the Directors, so as long as Mark is posting... :)
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Government handouts for everyone. Now vote for me me me me me
He should be running on the Democratic ticket.
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"Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm." -- James Madison
...had a consistent GWB and an Al Gore who went from passively medicated to hyper-aggressive to everything in between. After that third debate, when Gore had gone through his third focus group-induced transformation, and Bush had still continued to be his exact same self, a viewer wrote the following into O'Reilly:
After three debates, we have been able to see the real Al Gore. However, we have yet to see teh real George W. Bush.
...implying that changing positions and personalities every time out showed some sort of insight into the "real" person that remaining consistent and true did not.
SNL - Bush and Gore Debate
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The "real" Mitt Romney has been out on the trail for the last two years. He also campaigned for Senate in Mass, and won the governorship there.
The "real" Mitt Romney appears, quite simply, to be a focus-group-and- poll-driven politician who is blinded by ambition and by his belief -- like Al Gore -- that the presidency is his birthright.
Frankly, I don't see one single positive thing he brings to the table as far as the presidency and the campaign go.
Not one.
I'd rather hear you talk about who you like than just slash people apart.
Seriously, though, nobody in our field is perfect. You are going to have to settle on someone and vote/support them. I have those in this field that I like better than others, but I will ultimately vote for whomever our nominee is (yes, even Huck), because I believe that the Democrat party constitutes a very serious threat to this country if they are given power.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Dan McLaughlin that Romney will never come within 100 electoral votes of the Presidency.
He needs to get out while we can still have another nominee.
A lot depends on who the Dems nominate. Against Hillary, I'll give Romney a better than 50% shot - I think any of our guys could beat her. I can't put my finger on Romney's electability, and yes, I have read Mr. McLaughlin's indictment of the Romney candidacy. Some days I feel like he could do well, and other days I'm not so sure.
On a side note, I never thought my primary vote here in Missouri would mean much, but it's looking more and more like it will have a big impact (we are a Feb. 5 state). I'm going to need to give this some serious thought. I like Fred & Mitt - I guess we'll have a clearer picture after January is over.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
The GOP is waaay behind the 8-ball already in this election. Nominating a Romney would, IMO, ensure defeat whoever the Dems run.
Then who is the guy? Who will win for us? Who would you like to see run, and what candidate has the best combination of electability and strength on the issues?
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
If you nominate Romney, the entire attack against Clintonian triangulation is taken off the table instantly. You're left with two politicians who would pander their way through the campaign. Romney would be obliterated.
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What you just said made absolutely no sense. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.
Mitt's Michigan message was the "federal government owes you a handout". He's Hillary lite, and would get destroyed in general election trying to out pander the Dems. He's a sleazy salesman who changes his message to fit the audience he's talking to.
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"Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm." -- James Madison
The problem with your theory, is that Romney is going to lose by at least 5pts.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
he makes it into double digits.
It would hearten the kind of Thompson supporters who are glued to their computer screen, but there aren't enough of us to make any real difference.
Didn't the GOP talk all (or half) of MI's delegates for moving the primary, like Florida? If that is the case, does it really matter who wins? Hell, let Ron Paul win, it won't do him any good. Is everyone just concered with momentum after this, not the actual votes?
Or am I completely wrong and missing something?
Right, half. So they are all battling over half of what normally would have been available. So I guess its more momentum then anything..
I thought the place would be crawling with diaries by now about michigan voting experiences.
I think it's going to be close, but I suspect we are going to see more independens than some of the polls have in the models. They seem to be way underrepresented to me. I'd bet on McCain by about 4 points but like everybody else here, I have my built in bias.
I think it's probable we are going to have a margin under 5 points.
If Mitt loses a native son race, it does raise questions about how he can possibly win enough delegates for the nomination. He won't be competitive in Florida or most of the big Feb 5th states. But if he wins narrowly and loses in SC again, he's not much better off.
Conversely, a narrow McCain win does not buy him a lot of momentum since he probably will have lost Republicans. Assuming he wins SC, he'll still have a fight with Rudy in Florida. And if Thompson is out or a non-factor in Florida (which I expect), one could see a Rudy bandwagon of anti-McCain fiscal conservatives.
It will represent a major upset.
I know some "connected" people in Michigan Republican politics and this whole thing about moving the primary up was all to set up a McCain victory. A Romney win would be a repudiation of the McCain candidacy and a rejection of the GOP establishment in MI.
I think McCain blew it with his Springsteenesque:
"These jobs are going boys,
and they ain't coming back."
I think it re-emphasizes the point that McCain is a bad candidate and will get crushed by Hillary or Obama in the fall.
But it's also the truth. Those manufacturing are not coming back. Even Romney knows that (at least, I hope he does), he just told people what they want to hear.
I think that NY op-ed you linked to sums up Romney's problems leading up to Michigan very well. Hopefully Michigan, where he feels very comfortable and where the message he's most sincere about (the economy), will be his chance to turn things around and play up his strengths. It will ultimately be up to the voters to decide what issue is most important. Obviously Michigan is a good fit for his optimism, his command of economics and past problem solving capabilities. We'll have to wait and see.
Dig this. Here's a tidbit:
"A well-publicized weekend photo-op for Mitt Romney turns out to have been missing a piece of information that might have undermined its credibility: the unemployed single mom at the center of the event was the mother of a Romney staffer."
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It is like you people just do not get it. Sure, Romney has changed some positions, some up to three years ago. The hero of the right, Ronald Reagan changed his positions on abortion to run and we are so thankful that he did or where would we be today? Reagan also gave us the biggest tax increases in California history up to the time he was Governor. We still ended up with huge deficits under his rule, but that is mostly because of all the programs the democrats refused to cut.
What we are doing here is screwing ourselves. Romney is the only one who will be able to compete with the Democrats on stage. And, the way we are going, because of our jealousy and hatred of Romney because he made it and is rich and because he is a Mormon, we are doing all we can to nominate McCain or Huckabee.
I have never voted Democrat for President, but we deserve for the Democrats to win because of what we are doing to each other. I have come to the point that, if anyone except Romney or Hunter is nominated, I will either stay home or actually go in and vote for the Democrat (heaven forbid) but they cannot be any worse because at least they do not support the bigotry we have seen towards Romney.
Romney changed his position on abortion after studying embyronic stem cells. He said it definitively proved to him where life begins. How many "conservative" prolife politicians do we have who have stood up on abortion all these years and still cannot see this issue and who are pressing Bush to approve more funding for this murderous activity?
Romney stood up with the conservatives and evangelicals, while Governor of Massachusetts, which really shows guts. He spoke publicly at the October 2006 Justice Sunday held just before the 2006 elections, which was to shed light on the dangers we were in with the Democrats taking power. He stood up for us, as did Ann Romney. God bless them for that.
Where was Huckabee or Thompson or any of them? We never heard a thing from them.
And McCain? He was out screwing up the chances of conservative judges by putting his moderate coalition together with the likes of Lindsay Graham, etc., so that we could not get conservatives on the bench. He was also working for amnesty for illegals. Rick Santorum has a great article on this subject and how dangerous it would be for conservatives if McCain is nominated and elected. I wish I would forward it to this group, but I am no computer expert and do not know how to do those things.
And, Fred Thompson, has been a longtime supporter of John McCain in the past, even supporting him when he ran for President in 2000.
Conservativism gets us nowhere if we do not support conservative candidates and Fred Thompson has not done that.
because of our jealousy and hatred of Romney because he made it and is rich and because he is a Mormon
There are a whole lot of people who dislike Romney, and it's not because of his wealth or his faith. It's because he seems entirely unprincipled, willing to say whatever he has to say and screw whoever he has to screw to get elected.
There is no President but Lincoln, and Reagan is his prophet
:checking fingernails: Last time I checked, that was worth at least a warning, and an instruction to provide an apology forthwith.
In fact, why don't you do just that, eldstenorge? Next post, please.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
All sorts of candidates can run and all sorts of people come out to support them, in direct opposition to one's own preferences.
This is not going to change. Get used to it.
I'm a big McCain supporter. I don't think that Romney would necessarily be a bad President, though I really, really dislike him as a person. I would love to see McCain win in Michigan.
That said, the seems to show momentum towards Romney in the past week.
For the sake of consistency, I prefer to look at trends within a single polling organization. The Mitchell Research Group shows that late-deciding voters tend to swing to Romney:
Mitchell Research Group:
1/9-1/10; (1/9-1/12); [1/10-1/13]
McCain 23%; (22%) [27%]
Romney 17%; (21%); [29%]
Huckabee 11%; (12%); [12%]
Paul 8%; (7%); [7%]
Giuliani 8%; (7%); [7%]
Thompson 2%; (3%); [4%]
Total: 69%; (72%); [86%]
As more and more voters have made up their minds, they have gone to Romney more than to McCain, by a margin of 3-to-1. From the first poll to the last, the percentage of voters stating a preference went up 17%. Of these, Romney has captured 12% to McCain's 4% bump.
Now it's possible that the last-minute deciders may break the other way. Voters who make up their minds this morning are probably more like to vote on "character" than on "issues" -- that was one of the biggest factors in McCain's New Hampshire victory. On the other hand, Romney's status as Michigan's Favorite Son may very well blunt this advantage and lead to a lot of last-minute voters pulling the lever for Governor Romney's boy.
All in all, it'll be a close race. But if I had to put money down, I'd say that Michigan is moving in Romney's direction.
There is no President but Lincoln, and Reagan is his prophet
I think you are right for different reasons. McCain blew it when he said that Michigan jobs were gone forever. First, its not necessiarly true. Second, American workers given a level playing field can out do any one else. However, our government has seen fit to find ways to discourage productivity.
on greedy unions that hobble American business. Being paid for not working is not a model for success. Once the auto industry recognizes the problem and decides to take strong action against the socialist unions - they can begin the decade or so it will take to regain confidence in their product.
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"Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm." -- James Madison
The reason Romney's numbers kept rising in that poll, is they kept reducing the number of independents in the sample. Now, perhaps over the past few days more and more independents decided against voting, but that doesn't seem very logical to me.
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
It's going to depend on how the independents, Democrats and mischief makers vote.
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left -- Ecclesiastes 10:2