Initial Reactions To CPAC Poll Results
By California Yankee Posted in 2008 — Comments (25) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The results are in, Romney won this year's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), straw poll:
Romney 21%
Giuliani 17%
Brownback 15%
Gingrich 14%
McCain 12%
Other prospective 2008 nominees received less than 5%
Read on...
Romney mounted a serious campaign to do well in the poll:
Romney flooded the convention with college-aged campaign workers — paying many of their registration fees and even busing some of them in and paying for their hotel rooms, according to a report in The New York Times — wearing blue Romney shirts, carrying posters for their candidate, and voting in the straw poll.
There are some interesting tidbits available about the CPAC attendees self-identification and how they voted.
Attendees who identified themselves as concerned primarily with reducing the size of government supported Romney and Giuliani essentially equally — 21% and 20% respectively.
Attendees concerned with "traditional values" preferred Brownback with 29% followed Romney at 22%, while Giuliani and McCain were tied at at 8%.
Giuliani led among national-security conservatives with 25% of their vote, followed by Mr. Romney with 21%, and Mr. McCain at 18%.
Giuliani is a highly acceptable second choice for those supporting other candidates. On a ballot combining attendees' first and second choices for the 2008 Republican nomination Giuliani came out on top:
Giuliani 34%,
Romney 30%
Gingrich 30%
Brownback 24%
McCain 20%
What does it all mean? Your opinion is as good as mine or that of anyone else. Remember that the poll is unscientific and there is still a year to go before the first 2008 primary votes are cast. Nevertheless, the straw poll results will help the top tier raise money - the life blood of the 2008 campaign. Other than that, the results provide bragging rights for the candidates and fodder for political junkies like us to ponder.
Here's my two cents on that score. Romney and Brownback get points for doing what was necessary to do well in the straw poll. Brownback can now be moved beyond the also rans, but continues to have difficulty with security voters for not supporting the revised Iraq strategy. McCain's campaign is in serious trouble and avoiding CPAC was a huge mistake. He should have attended and made his case.
What's your take?
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Initial Reactions To CPAC Poll Results 25 Comments (0 topical, 25 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
there are alot of republicans out there who have not even thought about who they will be supporting, much less writing off mccain. and from my understanding he's doing well with fundraising which will help once people do start thinking about who they will be supporting.
Not necessarily based onthis or any other poll. What it is showing, to me, is that, when people experience the "retail politics" of meeting candidates and hearing their message, the shine of McCain wears off and people see that other candidates speak to their philosophy more. In ither words, retail has allowed people like Romney and Brownback to impress people at the expense of McCain.
And guess what, Iowa and New Hampshire are all about retail politics. If results like these prove prophetic then McCain will not win those early states and could be on the ropes going into South Carolina - where the social conservative vote will be big and is still rather unpredicatble (but doesn't seem a natural place for McCain to score big).
If McCain/Giuliani/Romney duke it out and split the moderate vote, Brownback could win a few primaries with a strong showing of Social Conservatives.
We had the opposite thing happen in the Gubernatorial primaries in Illinois this year, when two SoCons split the Evangelical vote and Judy Baar Topinka won.
Bono is not an Evangelical.
I just saw on CNN this morning with Wolf Blitzer interviewing Tom Tancredo where Tancredo claimed that Romney paid and bused in people inorder to win the straw poll. I guess the polls don't really matter that much if that is indeed the case.
First, this isn't really a "poll" as it is not a representative sample of any group. It is more a "vote" since they tried to get every person to vote, not a sample.
Second, it measures something besides mere appeal. Romney organized and brought in supporters. McCain skipped the whole thing. So it measures something, just not straight-up popularity.
That's why McCain getting 12% is more impressive than Romney getting 21%. McCain not only didn't try, he even disrespected the conference. Romney brought in supporters. And yet they were only 9 points apart.
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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
will probably be a fairly strong Romney state since organizing, paying for, and busing are all a part of the Iowa caucuses.
Demonstrating that he can win by good organization/mobilization should build confidence in many fanincial supporters who could be swaying one way or another. So, this poll is definitely a good win for Romney.
I think Giuliani and McCain have the most to brag about. McCain stiffs the whole thing and most of the people there and he still makes top tier. This is his worst subgroup of Republicans and he still got 12% (20% of first and second votes). McCain destroyed Tancredo in Tancredo's best subgroup. I expected more single issue voters to put Tancredo higher up.
And Giuliani just showed that the "conservatives for Giuliani" group is big enough to carry him.
If CPAC is the right wing of Republican voters, then Giuliani and McCain just showed that they can compete. Romney and Brownback don't have as much room to grow outside of this group. This poll just re-iterated my assessment before hand. This is a Giuliani v. McCain race that Romney could move into if one of the other two makes a major mistake. And Brownback is trying to take away the "just in case" spot from Romney.
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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
McCain did well for not showing up and it may have even helped him with moderate republican voters especially after the fiasco in which Ann Coulter sadly and very unfairly made the CPAC look like a neo-nazi rally with her behavior.
appears to be the guy who has not announced that he is a candidate, Newt Gingrich. Neither Rudy or Mitt are regarded as movement conservatives. They are politicians from New England where no conservative need apply. Sam Brownback falls away rapidly when the poll concerns the 1st and 2nd choice combination. Only Newt remains at the top with Mitt and Rudy. Time will tell if Newt takes the plunge or not.
You’re a persistent cuss, pilgrim.
John Wayne to Jimmy Stewart in The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance
NY city is not part of New England in demographics or culture. However they do both have four seasons and many Italians live in both places.
Back in campaign for the 68 election Nixon only got into the race 6 weeks before the New Hampshire primary and he won.
My understanding is that the voting was done mostly on Thurday. It would be interesting to see what the numbers would be after Giuliani and Romney spoke.
The poll was also taken Thursday-Friday of the conference. By my rough observations 50-60 percent of the people who voted in this straw poll, did so on Thursday, as all the stations were packed then with opening day excitement.
The significance of this? A lot of people took the survey without hearing even one candidate give a speech. I will tell you, the various speeches did have an affect on people's perceptions, myself included. I voted early on Thursday, and had I waited until late Friday, after 80 percent of the presidential candidates had spoken, my vote would have been amended.
I realize most of the CPAC attendees had heard these guys on TV or over the internet before. They are, afterall, more keyed in on politics than most of the general populace. But, there's just something about rubbing shoulders with them in the hallways, and hearing them give you their best pitch -- in person -- that makes you really consider them more carefully.
I think Gingrich's showing is the most impressive. He's not even running yet--the only one in the top five who didn't spend any money, didn't bus in any supporters, doesn't have any yard signs or bumper stickers--and yet he's giving the big boys a run for their money. Imagine what he might do with some money and an actual campaign organization! I think this reflects the fact that he's the strongest, most faithful advocate of the conservative movement in the bunch.
First of all, what happened to Duncan Hunter??..He was there right?
Second, Tancredo didnt do so good in this poll,which tells me to believe that this illegal immigration issue is not such a winning issue even inside the conservative base.
McCain, who didnt even show up, had better number then Tancredo+Hunter combine.In my opinion, this is a huge win for McCain because he wasnt even there and did not lobby to win the straw poll, but yet,he got respectable poll number whyle beating out 2 candidate that i keep hearing will be powerfull candidate because of their illegal immigration stance.
This race is between McCain and Giuliani.The good news for McCain is, Giuliani is to his left,not his right, which could have been much harder for him to get the nomination.
What McCain should pray for is to get Gingrich to jump in there and divide the conservative base and spread it around so that romney or brownback wont get a large chunck of it.
Anyway,Tancredo and hunter are both worthless and their immigration stances wont gain them any kind of support.Only a small % of single issue voters votes base on illegal immigration.They are very passionate,angry,nasty and by far the loudest in the conservative base, but this group can not support tancredo/hunter.
Finishing a strong third gives me hope for Sam's candidacy.
Is it just me or have the pro-lifers hitched their wagon to his candidacy more than any other candidate?
Bono is not an Evangelical.
Ezekiel
Brownback is a "One Trick Pony" at best, and I think even the pro-life folks know that. He may talk the talk and walk the walk that pleases them, but he stands zero chance of winning a national election. If the pro-life folks want to back their version of Ralph Nader and Brownback goes along, even the Breck Girl can win the presidency.
As this race moves along, the pro-life folks have to figure out for themselves how much the Top Three candidates mean what they say on the issue they care about and back someone who can actually win the general election in November '08. Brownback is not that guy.
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Dennis Miller for President...no more wimps!
SoCons get a lot of grief on this site (deserved?) for being single issue voters, but the fact of the matter is that Brownback is "right on life" and is not conveniently so.
Your typical Values Voter can very easily see through conveniently prolife candidates. All it will take is James Dobson or Chuck Colson to come out in favor of Brownback and Sam's straw poll numbers will jump significantly.
Sam's one trick is pretty important to Social Conservatives.
Bono is not an Evangelical.
E
That's pretty clear, but come visit the California to get view about what happens when you strive for purity over actually getting someone elected. The CA Republican party seemly would rather have Grey Davis in office than a Governator, who by no means is a perfect conservative, but he's a darn site better than Med Fly Grey Davis.
The "Perfect" conservative out here, Tom McClintock, who is a good guy, could not even get elected Lt. Governor even with the backing of the Governator, if that tells you anything.
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Dennis Miller for President...no more wimps!
A Brownback presidency and its promised pro-life judge nominees still doesn't guarantee confirmation. Unless Brownback has some serious pull with his Senate colleagues, I am not sure any "strict constructionist" will be able to make it out of committee.
Bono is not an Evangelical.
McCain is basically finished. I'd put money on his stock taking a nosedive on intrade.com.
Romney and Giuliani are going to duke it out for the nomination. I don't see Brownback or Gingrich doing anything about that.