Iowa at Night -- The Open Thread
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (399) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Anecdotal evidence tonight suggests that Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama just might win tonight. Reportedly a huge evangelical turnout is happening in rural and suburban areas of Iowa tonight. Likewise, the Obama camp is reporting that in key targeted precincts they are seeing massive turnout -- much, much higher than 2004.
Tonight could be an interesting night. My predictions again are Huck and Obama win. But we'll see. The Romney camp's game is on and their turn out machine is working well tonight. They aren't going down without a fight.
[UPDATE at 8:30 p.m. est:] The caucus has an "entrance poll" with the media instead of an exit poll. On the GOP side right now we have Huckabee followed by Romney followed by Thompson followed by McCain.
On the Democratic side it is Obama, Hillary, then Edwards.
Huckabee is apparently doing very, very well. BTW, Campaign Carl reports on Fox that Romney has spent $10 million in Iowa.
[UPDATE at 8:45 p.m. est:] 60% of people voting in the GOP caucus characterize themselves as "evangelical." Late deciders broke for Huckabee at 27% and Thompson at 21%.
[UPDATE at 8:55 p.m. est:] FoxNews calls it for Huckabee. Congratulations to the Arkansas Governor.
[UPDATE at 9:03 p.m. est:] Bad news in the internals for Mitt Romney. Late deciders split fairly evenly between Huckabee and Thompson leaving Romney behind. Likewise, people who voted on the issue of trust split between Huckabee and Thompson leaving Romney in the dust.
[UPDATE at 9:26 p.m. est:] NBC and FoxNews call the D caucus for Obama.
[UPDATE at 9:26 p.m. est:] Good God! I'm listening to Edwards claim 2nd place. For all the knocks on Huckabee, Edwards seems to think he's a freakin' faith healer. What. A. Tool.
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Iowa at Night -- The Open Thread 399 Comments (0 topical, 399 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I don't see how anyone taking third is a shocker.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Would it shock you if I came in third? Okay, but what about Hunter or Paul? I'd be surprised if they came in third. If Fred takes third in Iowa, it would show that people really like him, would raise some awareness, and would propel his campaign.
His supporters all seem to come from cold dark places, its a perfect caucus for them.
Theres expected to be 80k republican voters turning out, with the inclement weather chop 10k off of that. This means 7000 votes could put you in third. I suspect we may hear about RP supporters wearing roller skates going from caucus to caucus. Maybe some will wear papier mache heads and vote twice.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
Reportedly a huge evangelical turnout is happening in rural and suburban areas of Iowa tonight.
Maybe my guess of Huckabee +15% will turn out to be right!
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
hope the voters there wise up and go for Mitt!
...but hey, what do I know.
Also, I predict Hillary wins on the Dem side.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Obama wins with Edwards close to Clinton.
Hopefully Fred will do better than Fox News has been predicting the last few hours. A Huckabee win will just further the case that Iowa isn't a good way to start the primary season.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Clinton, Obama leading for Dems.
Romney, Huckabee leading for Reps.
I suppose the Dem entry poll means less than the Republican one, due to switchover votes.
Serviceman from Iowa fighting overseas can’t vote in the Iowa caucus.
Something about that seems extremely unfair.
For those who care, there seems to be a decent site for getting Dem numbers as they come in. Edwards leads early as the small places report first. Anyone know of a GOP site like this? www.iowacaucusresults.com
but I'm having problems loading the site!
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Editor for The Hinzsight Report
I have to wonder how in a modern society this is the best we have. What a cluster.
Huckabee and Obama way ahead, Huckabee at 33% to Mitt 23%
Obama 34% to Hillary 27%
Wow Huck vs Obambie what a depressing election.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
If Obama comes out ahead. That might be enough to sink McCain in NH. An Obama win is bad news for McCain, since Obama is the most likely candidate to lure the independents into the Democrat primary. A Hillary win would have been the best case scenario for McCain.
The last thing I want to get stuck with is Huckabee versus McCain.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Not true. A solid Romney win in New Hampshire followed by wins in Wyoming and Michigan would likely leave Huckabee in the dust.
Huckabee is not going to do well in New Hampshire. No large evangelical population to turn out for him there (Thank God!).
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
Very early returns show it:
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Giuliani
Hunter
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_state/US_Page_0103_...
Fox shows him 1% behind him right now.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
_USA. ok, it is weird, but I like people who care enough to spend their evening talking politics with neighbors. Kind of like what we do here all the time :)
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Molon Labe!
Ya... but they're less informed and vote based on cheesy 30 second ads.
Doing your civic duty should also be coming to your duty well informed.
informed, they are just different. Unlike others, Iowa does not scare me at all. I personally think Huck winning Iowa would be a good thing. That would put him as political target one for real conservatives. This is Iowa people, it will NOT choose the next president.
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Molon Labe!
Rudy's speaker just referred to his "conservativeness". Why am I not surprised that his people don't even know the word "conservatism"?
Come on, guys, you'd have to be happy if Thompson takes a strong third and Paul beats McCain for fourth.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Maybe I'm just a little naive her but I wonder what it would take to get the all 50 states to hold their primaries on the same day. Seriously, it disgusts me to no end that 2 tiny states which are far from being representative of the whole US population get so much power. I mean, all this talk about candidates dropping out after NH or SC is just sad. Imagine if the rest of the union were ready to nominate someone who drops out after only 2 or 3 states? We don't even get a chance.
www.scottbomb.com
Click here to donate to the Fred Thompson campaign.
Free advertising thanks to the news media, candidates dropping out after just a few states. By the time the primary hits TX, I might not even get a chance to vote for Fred or anyone else I find acceptable.
www.scottbomb.com
Click here to donate to the Fred Thompson campaign.
Some might not have much of a chance at that point, but I wouldn't worry about people dropping out after just a few states. The schedule is so compressed now... there's just no reason to do it.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
60% identify themselves as Evangelicals in entrance polling.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Brit sitting there almost freaking out how this such great news for FRED... I can't wait to see the Media take it in the shorts tonight... could Fred pull out a 2nd?
Though Fox has clearly not been his best friend.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Here it is:
obviously did not do the legwork - page just will not load - I haven't gotten anything from it in over an hour. Forget about any "live results" - doesn't help me if I can't see them.
CNN at 8:50 had numbers for Denton County showing:
Huckabee 30%
Thompson 23
Romney 17
McCain 11
Giuliani 10
Paul 6
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Develop alternatives to existing policies and keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable. Milton Friedman
I wonder how many votes that represents? I love those numbers!
Huckabee 36%
Romney 23%
Thompson 14%
McCain 12%
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
With the 60% of the turnout being self-identified evangelicals. I thought Huckabee was going to have a great turnout organization, but that's amazing.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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The Red Sox Republican: Burkeanism, Baseball, and Sundries.
...and they are interviewing some Des Moines voters who identify themselves as Republicans.
The Huckabee supporters look pretty much exactly how I pictured them.
That is not a compliment.
put a whole lot of stock in CNN's choice of interviewees, especially considering how they tend to portray christians...
they will stay divided and spend, spend, spend on the primary :)
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Molon Labe!
Oh man.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I think this helps Paul more than hurts McCain. Very easy to say McCain waived off Iowa.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Congrats Governor Huckabee, this guy took a lot of abuse, doesn't mean I like him, and Media at least gives him the time of day, but I do appreciate his win over Romney, if nothing else because of $$$.
Fred needs to hold on.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Thompson 14%, McCain 12%, Paul 11%, Giuliani 4%
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
IMO he's the Yoda of American politicsal reporting.
"Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?" (Macaulay)
My evening is complete. :)
"Who will stand/On either hand/And guard this bridge with me?" (Macaulay)
Screaming at the top of your lungs sure is an interesting way to pick a nominee.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Swifts description of Yahoo's picking a leader.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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Disclaimer: I am a member of a state-wide executive committee that is affiliated with Governor Mike Huckabee's campaign for the GOP presidential nomination
Huckabee is a big government loving liberal. If he becomes are nominee he will get creamed in the general election. The religious right is going to destroy the GOP.
Republicans won in 1994 thanks largely to Evangelicals, and faithful Catholics. Since then, we've (I fall into the latter category) been disappointed time after time. To be sure, I don't like Huckabee and I'd rather have Paul, Thompson, or Romney, but stop whining about Evnagelicals ruining the Party. They're part of the coalition, and we can't win without them.
SIC
You're right, we can't win without the social conservatives, but neither can the Republican party continue to win national elections if all the party has to offer is hair shirt social conservatism while ignoring other more important conservative values.
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Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
I think Huckabee is our most electable candidate. That doesn't mean I'm supporting him, but economic populism sells. Now you can ask whether it's worth winning if we sell out on so much - which it seems the Evangelicals have asked tonight - but that doesn't mean he can't win. Sadly, our candidates have forced us into the position of choosing between social conservatism and fiscal conservatism. It's a false choice and there are so many better officials who could have run, but alas, they didn't. Coburn/DeMint 2012!
"I think Huckabee is our most electable candidate."
Huckabee the most electable? That's got to be a joke. He'll get destroyed by any of the three Democrats. John McCain is the best hope for holding the White House, but Thompson could do it too, only it would be a much closer race.
Huckabee is nothing more than Bill Clinton with an R next to his name.
Democrats will vote for whoever the Democrats put up. They unite after primaries. We fracture. Conservatives (minus the religious zealots) will sit home on Election Day or vote third party because of Huckabee's Socialist views.
Big spending and expanding government is one of the big reasons we got thrown out of the majority last year. We lost the fiscally conservative independents and libertarians and the Reagan Democrats. Huckabee will continue that trend and probably bury us in debt even more than Bush has.
The electorate won't make the same mistake twice. He'll make the Dems look like the fiscal stewards.
If Rudy's the nominee, and perhaps Romney too, several social cons will sit out. If Illinois' third Senator will really drive Republican turnout, a Huckabee nomination won't change that. It's the whole case for Rudy's candidacy. I expect that fewer people would sit out of a Huckabee-Clinton match-up than a Giuliani-Clinton match-up.
So your argument is, essentially, that there are more social conservatives than there are fiscal conservatives and national security conservatives combined?
I doubt that. A lot.
I think that the number of people who would sit out should Huckabee be the nominee are fewer than the number of people who would sit out if Rudy is the nominee. That's entirely different from the absolute numbers of socons v. fi-cons and NS-cons. I think the latter two groups would be much more concerned about handing Hillary the White House as opposed to Huckabee. So-cons get zero, zilch, nada, nothing from Rudy, and he has told them so.
I think you're vastly underestimating the degree to which Huckabee is unpalatable to fiscons and nscons. He's demonstrably an utter ignoramus on economic and foreign policy -- electing him would just be a different flavor of disastrous than electing Mrs. Clinton.
So the question becomes, as I suggested before, which portion of the conservative coalition are you more willing to kiss off. The socons, or the fiscons and the nscons? Which portion, if it were to stay home on election day, would cause a greater electoral catastrophe?
he "served" himself, and no one else.
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
"Sadly, our candidates have forced us into the position of choosing between social conservatism and fiscal conservatism."
Neither Thompson nor Romney force that division. We also lose bit time on foreign policy and on the border with Huckabee.
The only silver lining I see in this cloud is that the two capable of uniting the coalition finished in the top 3. That's it.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
They have their own problems. Yes, I'd rather see either of them than Huckabee, but there's the whole trust thing with Romney and the sleeping through the race thing with Thompson.
as long as they sit quitely in the back pew and do as they're told your OK with them, because, afterall, it's YOUR issue that are the important ones.
Good grief.
Don't you see how ironic your statement is? They aren't voting for him based on the issues. They are voting for him based on his religion.
Recognizing the inherent dignity of every human being from conception until natural death?
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Disclaimer: I am a member of a state-wide executive committee that is affiliated with Governor Mike Huckabee's campaign for the GOP presidential nomination
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I fail to understand this line of argument, but then I fail to understand a lot of things... Every candidate (with the possible exception of Giuliani) recognizes the value of human life.
you have to admit that not all of the republican candidates really care about the sanctity of life. I find it hard to believe that you can justify people treating Christians a certain way because of the way one person states something.
We don't really want to start name-calling or justifying the mistreatment of others.
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
I am not even happy addressing the subgroup as a group on the republican side. But this was not pretty. I would have been just as upset if Romney won because the caucus was held in Utah.
What we have is identity politics in the GOP now and the evangelicals brought it to us. Thats not good. Not good for them , the coalition, or the issues the coalition considers important.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
It would be easy to say, " the new Jimmy Carter was the winner tonight" it's not exactly true, Mike is 50 times better than Jimmy ever was.
Two things that back up your point are:
1. No commentator said Huck was viable after this win. They have all shifted to McCain as the real winner.
Didn't this web call that one weeks ago? If Romney won, McCain and Guiliani were toast. This Huck win makes McCain the actual winner.
2. Iowan voters said they thought Romney was more electable nationally than Huck but then went on to vote for Huck because of "similar values" (read-- same religion)
Alex
I congratulate you on the single minded focus on one issue and one issue only. A move that will help in uniting people to not vote Republican in record numbers.
There is no "Big Tent" Republican party any more with the ascendancy of Pastor HuckaFraud the Christan leader, we are now witnessing the birth of Republican theocratic party.
Disgusting.
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Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
I know it's only Iowa, and this thing is far from over, but I still want to vomit over the fact identify politics has made it this far in the Republican Party.
Huck and Rollins may bet their wish and the Reagan coalition may be over, so now they can go build the U.S. version of the Christian Democratic Union.
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
Recognizing the importance of surviving attacks from medieval Islamic death-cultists, who want us all dead, long enough to give a rat's patoot about when or if a human fetus deserves the protection of the law.
that giving a rat's patoot about protecting unborn children is part of a culture of life that makes us despise the Islamic death-cultists view of said human life.
It's a dessert topping, and a floor wax!
The notion that the Culture Of Life(tm) is the first, last, and only value of any importance is breathtakingly idiotic. The notion that the Culture Of Life(tm) is the reason underlying the fight against Islamic extremists is also breathtakingly idiotic.
Abortion isn't the only issue, and for many of us it's not even a particularly important one. Get over it.
without national security (arrogant bunker mentality types) and economic conservatives (they guy that laid you off), minority status. Just remember who insisted on pulling the trigger to blow up the coalition. It wasn't the national security or economic conservatives, or full spectrum conservatives like myself. It was your boys Huck and Rollins (who's last two big campaigns were for pro-choice candidates; Perot and Whitman - you should be proud).
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
you find one thread with me saying I support Huckabee. I have been in Rudy's camp from day one.
I also wasn't the one who started the evangelical-bashing in this thread.
And finally, my problem isn't with being anti-Huckabee; my problem is with elitists like yourself that look at evangelicals as stupid hicks who should keep thier religious beliefs out of thier politics.
You're just one personal attack after another out here. Can you actually debate anything on the merits with a coherent argument?
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
Yes, the evangelicals are the people that screw up everything. Just as the democrats. You know, this is about the 4th comment I've seen that attacks evangelicals with a generalization about who we might support.
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
Is conservative Christian influence in politics, if he loses the general election, which I think is the most likely result.
And I say this as a Christian, pro-life, pro-gun, free-market conservative.
Sure seems that way. Stupid, fat ignorant sheep who cannot see beyond their demographic to pick the man who told the truth.
I'm about ready to vomit with rage.
Fred Thompson: Hands Down, the ONLY Consistently Conservative candidate.
... good grief. You're acting like a child. Thompson had a pretty good night tonight (3rd or 4th place). He's proved he's definitely still a contender. Why can't you just be happy with that and move on to New Hampshire and South Carolina? No, you have to disown half the Republican base because they didn't have the wisdom to pick your favorite candidate. Seriously, get a life.
Hang all traitors and secessionists! Hang them high!
- Me
The Glass Jaw has taken the evening. The GOP pays the price.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
that we can be assured that the Huckster won't win the nomination.
Also, can anyone interpret the county numbers?
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#IAREP
The religious right is going to destroy the GOP.
I am part of the "religious right" and I never supported Huckabee. I am a Thompson supporter so you need to reconsider your wild ponfications about the "relgious right"
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
Are Iowa Republicans liberal? Or just ignorant? Either way, they picked the most socialist Republican candidate imaginable.
from Chris Wallace. He MIGHT want to re-think talking in public places -- even with his wife.
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Considering where the good doctor's head was, when practicing medicine, is it any wonder that the man has issues?
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Doesn't look like she's going to catch Edwards, which is a shame. Hopefully New Hampshire will rid us of the ambulance-chaser.
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According to Democrats, it’s greedy to want to keep your own money, but it’s “justice” to demand someone else’s.
--Jonah Goldberg
With all three candidates in the 30s the dem caucas is a total wash - of course Iowa doesn't have nearly the importance political insiders think it does anyway.
Des Moines is in Polk county
Huckabee 2,666 36% 49%reporting
Romney 1,550 21%
McCain 1,101 15%
Thompson 1,038 14%
Paul 763 10%
Giuliani 321 4%
Hunter 39 0%
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
If FDT and Romney are knocked out, we have to root hard for McCain. Bad as he is, he's light years better than Huckleberry. And he could actually win a general election -- Huck cannot.
It's close but he looks like he will get a solid third on a day when some where claiming he was ready to quit. Forget NH, but Fred could do well in SC if he can get a bit of cash.
_he is presently at 14 percent and McCain is at 13 percent. OTOH, obviously he can not drop out and endorse a guy he just beat.
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Molon Labe!
If the media plays the usual expectations game, Fred can clearly make a case that he beat expectations. Also, since I think Mitt is done, he and John McCain can battle it out for the anti-Huckabee vote.
BTW...I'm also thrilled that my guy, John McCain, is getting double digits in a state in which he didn't spend any time or money.
to me "strong third" means there is a large gap between 3rd and fourth. I am glad Fred got third, but I am amazed McCain is basically tied with him. McCain will likely win NH, Fred needs to fight this thing in NC.
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Molon Labe!
If he stays at his current 13% and 4th place (with 78% precincts in according to CNN) is that then a strong fourth?
If Fred doesn't finish third, he's in trouble. I'm glad McCain get's third but I would have preferred McCain first and Thompson second.
Fred "wins" and Mitt is done. Clearly Fredheads have spun themselves on their heads, when a 2-1 head-to-head comparison is called a victory for the guy with the 1. lolol. looks like you may have to start crowing about a "strong 4th".
anyway, congrats to Gov. Huckabee.
I live in South Carolina and Huckabee has been leading here also. Again, lots of evangelicals here and if he just pulled it off in Iowa I see no reason for S.C. to be any different.
Do you know if the outstanding counties are more rural or urban?
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/county/#IAREP
I think Urban helps those not as conservative, like McCain and Rudy.
Rural seems to help more conservatives from what I'm told.
Jason in NorCal
Des Moines is in Polk County
updated 11 minutes ago
Polk County
Huckabee 2,666 36% 49%reporting
Romney 1,550 21%
McCain 1,101 15%
Thompson 1,038 14%
Paul 763 10%
Giuliani 321 4%
Hunter 39 0%
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
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Donate to the Rs in Close Senate Races through Slatecard
that can articulate the unmitigated disgust I'm feeling for Iowa GOP caucusers, right now. I should call it a night before I say something I'll regret.
Some are calling this a night of history..maybe for the dems.but i see this as a night of disgust for how i feel about iowans GOPers. Come on people..More than abortion and marriage matter.
Spin Central in Des Moines is buzzing about the results. Clinton and Romney are hurt and Obama and Huck have 5 days to ride this wave in New Hampshire. We shall see how much the Iowa wins will translate in the very independent and unpredictable New Hampshire.
Apparently Iowa Republicans have spoken out....and chosen our Jimmy Carter.
A sad sad day.
While their Iowa appeal may have been similar, be very careful about dismissing Huckabee as "just another Pat Robertson". Couple of major differences:
a) Huckabee is a former state governor with 10+ years executive government experience, as much or more than any of the other current candidates and any of our last several presidents (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, etc). Robertson was a TV figure with ZERO government experience. His viability as a presidential candidate was never credible on a broad scale, even with evangelicals who watched him on TV. Yes, Huckabee was once a pastor, but regardless of your views on his policies, he comes to the game with far more credibility as a presidential candidate than Robertson ever had.
b) Robertson was a charismatic penecostal, a denomination which has very little appeal in the Southern states rich in values voters. Huckabee, by contrast, is a Southern Baptist, a group that represents the single largest social conservative voting block in the US, especially in the South. While midwestern social conservatives obviously liked Huckabee, a charismatic pentecostal like Robertson would not have played nearly as well in the South, even if he had the credentials in other areas.
Not sure whether he can go all the way, but dismissing Gov Huckabee as a Jesse Jackson, Pat Robertson type with no credibility as a presidential contender would be a serious mistake.
And why we need to know as soon as possible who the alternative to Huckabee is. McCain or Thompson need to emerge as that option by yesterday. I don't want to wast anymore states while Huckabee racks up more delegates and destroys the party.
The rest of the party backed off on Rudy looking for a uniter, but there's a portion of the base that's hell bent on running Huckabee down everyone else's throat. The sad and sick irony is it will result in continued abortions and other social atrocities when the Dems get the Supreme Court back in a solid manner for a lifetime. But I've been convinced for a while that part of the base is more concerned with proving their own purity than they are in moving the ball forward and producing tangible results. To them, politics is about meeting their maker and the afterlife, not about realities here on earth.
I'm going to bed before I say something stupid or vomit over the sick reality of this.
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
Please quote what I said that you find to be bigoted or retract the statement.
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 197
Clinton didn't just lose Iowa, she got crushed. I'm seeing 37-30 on NBC right now, and the number is supposed to widen as they count more urban areas. This has the chance to completely change the balance of power on the Democratic side.
I'm also shocked how well Thompson is doing. From the lack of coverage he's been getting and the seemingly lackluster campaign, he may be one of the biggest stories on the Republican side and give him a much needed boost.
just called Thompson the 'odd man out.' To me this is rather weird because Thompson was seriously thinking of skipping Iowa completely about a month ago and then just came in and started going with it. He's gotten no good reviews from the MSM, has been written off for dead and still manages to pull a third-place finish out of Iowa behind one guy with a HUGE evangelical base and another with HUGE financial resources. McCain is close but he's got HUGE name recognition.
So how does a third place finish in Iowa make fred the odd man out?
So how does a third place finish in Iowa make fred the odd man out?
The MSM are idiots, but you already know that.
The HinzSight Report
Managing Editor
...is will Fred drop out? Will he quit? Huh? Will he?!!"
Fred denied the Politico story and they keep running with it. Disgusting.
www.scottbomb.com
Click here to donate to the Fred Thompson campaign.
In an age of terrorism, why did each party select their one nominee who's least qualified in terms of foreign policy?
In spades.
Scary thought isn't it?
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
When it comes to National Security, Biden/Richardson, not that I like them. Not sure of Dodd's experience.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Do you know if the outstanding counties are more rural or urban?
10 Largest cities in Iowa
Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Sioux City, Waterloo, Iowa City, Council Bluffs, Dubuque, West Des Moines and Ames.
County map with cities
http://geology.com/county-map/iowa.shtml
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
I would think it helps a ton, and hopefully things open up again in the South.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
The Republican Party is really going to become the U.S. version of the Christian Democratic Union - a socially conservative populist party. We're going to run a pro-life Jimmy Carter. Say good bye to the investor class and national security hawks. Say hello to the Dems first landslide and convincing popular vote since '64. We haven't hit rock bottom yet.
I guess the RNC will need to sign up with the European People's Party in the morning.
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
Iowa's evangelicals always play a disproportionate role in the GOP caucus. Look at 1988 -- Pat Robertson won and got creamed everywhere else. It's not the end of the world. We just need Romney, McCain or Giuliani to slaughter him in NH.
---
According to Democrats, it’s greedy to want to keep your own money, but it’s “justice” to demand someone else’s.
--Jonah Goldberg
With the addition of Thompson.
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
This Huckaboom is a fad, and Iowa Republicans are hardly representative of the GOP at large.
A conservative will be the nominee, it won't be Huck.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
I'm with you. I still think he'll make some waves in SC and elsewhere, but unless I'm missing something getting 40% of the vote when 60% of the GOP caucus goers identify themselves as evangelicals isn't an impressive showing.
In terms of the other candidates dividing the vote and having the electorate stacked in his favor, he couldn't have asked for much more.
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
Seeing Huckabee win is a sad day for a former Iowan. My prediction, in 2012 candidates will not bother spending the money there. And in 2012, or at latest in 2016, Iowa will not be the first primary (caucus).
forgetting about security.
So many polls showing terrorism and national security no longer top 2 issues.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
This is nuts, the story was leaked by Romney.
But Fox is also hitting McCain, are "expectations too high?"
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
LeaGuns don't kill people, abortions kill people.
Not at all sorry to see the spin from the press that is saying how well this will help McCain. Huck can't win NH and this would also seem to give McCain a big lift in MI. Thompson may get a few hundred votes more than McCain - McCain seems to have won in the large cities whereas Thompson got more in the rural areas that he's been wandering through for the last few weeks. Look for the Anti-Hucks start to circle the wagons around McCain.
You said Fred won towns he hit recently. These are most conservative voters, but it means people seeing him made a difference. His #s were not strong before the bus tour. Not that they are incredible, but on average they are much better.
Can he somehow do this in SC where he "sounds like them?"
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Now there's no more oak oppression,
For they passed a noble law,
And the trees are all kept equal
By hatchet, axe, and saw.
How many Iowa caucus goers heard the "story" that FDT was getting out of the race, and didn't hear the rebuttal. I wonder, because I am still seeing it reported and posted tonight, as if it had any validity. I also wonder how that affected the results.
Don't get me wrong though, I think tonight is good news, not great but good, for Thompson.
Fox news reported it. Fred debunked, but that kind of news does leave doubts for voters. Actually bigger laugh was people thinking that McCain leaked it. Nobody Fred related said anyone other than Romney.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
I just checked the Iowa caucus results map by county. Western Iowa counties, where Fred has enjoyed some of his largest crowds, have not reported yet. He just might make it to 15%.
I believe Fred might make 15%
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
this Fredhead is worried about staying ahead of McCain - lead is down to 180 votes, via cnn.com
However, if W. Iowa is our relative stronghold and it has yet to report, then we might yet be in good shape.
I'm trying to get word if Western Iowa is indeed friendly, but nobody saying for sure. Caution or optimism, I don't know.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Well, McCain just moved into third, but only by a couple hundred votes. I think third is a tie however the final numbers look.
My dear, departed Dad was born and raised in Adair County in western Iowa. With 40% reporting, Fred is leading Huckabee 33% to 32%.
Nearby Madison County (as in, the Bridges of) has not reported yet.
Did the Fair Tax win and the Global War on Terror lose tonight in Iowa?
The Iowa Democrat Party just announced in Des Moines that 212K voters in the Democrat Caucus shattering the previous record from 2004. Very very high voter turnout.
Did the Fair Tax win and the Global War on Terror lose tonight in Iowa?
The Iowa Democrat Party just announced in Des Moines that 212K voters in the Democrat Caucus shattering the previous record from 2004. Very very high voter turnout.
Every day we don't focus on the war on terror, which we do when bad foreing policy candidates are doing well, we lose.
Fair tax? I think like the human life amendment and anti-gay marriage amendment will never happen. Again, he is capturing votes with issues that are meaningless. Republicans at-large will appoint conservative judges. The Congressional and Senate Demographics will never sway towards allowing for these issues.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Registered users visit us here
http://draftfredthompson.com/forums/index.php/topic,13083.0.html
I think this may be the last hurrah for the Iowa caucuses.
lie or story whichever you would like to call it.
That guy is an idiot of the highest order!
Orange Bowl VA Tech being beaten 17-7 by Kansas.
Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion
I could be wrong, but I think he said that he and Huck are both for the middle class, etc.
but i'm glad to hear he's reforming himself
W.C. Fields for President!
www.shortenurl.com/7cxfm
Okay, I've had my moment of drama, and though I feel like I'd like to choke a few Huckabee "evangelicals", we will have to wait and see if Fred can recover enough traction in SC to displace a Huckabee who will likely be slaughtered in NH.
Fred Thompson: Hands Down, the ONLY Consistently Conservative candidate.
Congrats to Huck, he did it. Not an army of consultants, not a bunch of bundled contributions, but Huck and his natural political talent. Can't buy it, can't teach it.
Come aboard the bandwagon, folks, Huck can use your contributions, you time, and your effort.
He's gonna campaign in NH, and then come home, to the South, and I believe he will win my state of South Carolina decisively, and go on to sweep Dixie. All aboard!
And don't wait up for me. I'm in Fred's wagon, and Fred-baby will clean up in the South.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
Looks like at least the worst fears (6% or the like) did not happen. I'm thoroughly encouraged! Fred might or might not end up in 3rd, but 13-14% after the way this campaign started, I'll take it.
And let the pro-Fred blogs flow like rain!
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
I just want to see Fred announce he is still in...
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
Big city, big caucus votes coming in where people are not as upset by McCain refusing to pander to the ethanol farmers.
______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
Figured you'd be the blue crowd somewhere. When it's all said and done, you're going to be one of us, admit it....might take 5 years, though.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
And I am THRILLED that Obama won so handily. I was out until about 10 so the Dem race was over by the time I got home. Team Clinton has to be seething right now.
I have to say that Huckabee's a very good speaker. Knows when to pause and when to bring it home.
Thompson just jumped back ahead.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
I had a boss early in my career who urged me to hire any ex-preacher or ex-teacher for sales roles. The good ones know how to sell a message and get through to people. Huckabee is on right now and he looks and sounds good. He'll be tough to beat but I think it can be done.
Huckabee has serious money problems. Unless he get some Ronulan like money bombs he will be hard pressed to carry on especially if he gets beat badly in NH.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
...Obama's rise. I still think any or all of the top three could end up with the nom though. Still early.
Gotta think it's now Huck, McCain and maybe Mitt.
What's interesting to me is that nearly every Liberal I respect seems to be behind Obama.
Interesting to watch the Republican commentators say how Hillary is still fine. They sooooo want her to win.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
...liberals deride her as, basically, a Republican and conservatives view her as the dictionary definition of a liberal.
Ah, the world.
I think in the end it'll be Edwards or Obama.
I really think that Clinton was getting most of her support from people who thought she was the only real option.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
You'd honestly rather see Obama in the race and not Hillary? Not I. He would be a disaster for the Republicans, particularly with some of our elderly candidates. He's got an energy to him that's contagious, even if he's talking absolute fluff.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
OK, for a moment forget the Republican angle regarding "who I would or would not want to face". I just personally despise Hillary and the entire Clinton Inc, that whole "inevitable candidate" smugness that the campaign has run with.
So a smart slap across the lips -- loving it!
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
to a Obama v Huckabee election.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
only I was thinking of the general electorate more than just the RS community. I would expect it to become a matter of experience in that scenario, although many would still say that means as much as Bill Richardson's resume, which is to say, experience we could do without. The candidates themselves would drive the comparisons more than the pundits, I think, so it wouldn't just be about the "proven" governor versus the star of the high school debate team.
I sure hope we don't see too much ugliness in that scenario but I know there will be some, sad to say (but not from RS, I'm sure). It's kind of why I personally wished for a Condi v. Hillary contest, only the shoe would be on the other foot.
Anyone who understands the importance of Pakistan will be discouraged by an Obama v. Huckabee contest.
I hope you aren't bringing up that old canard about Obama being willing to attack Pakistan.
He stated what our current policy is.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
but I hope he appreciates Pakistan's sovereignty better now than he did that time before. Actually, I'm pretty sure he would not be advised to say anything else that sounds like a "go-it-alone" attitude, given how poorly that plays with the Democrat base.
political posturing.
As I said what he said is ALREADY American policy. He publicly stated this to show that he isn't one of those wussy Democrats.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
about the ultimate election results in November. Whoever wins will need to be surrounded by serious people for advisers and cabinet posts, though hopefully Obama will choose better than Bill Clinton for cabinet appointments.
As for current policy, if we've made any unauthorized incursions into Waziristan then somebody's good at keeping secrets.
I doubt that either Musharraf or our government would be all that keen on advertising our incursions into Pakistan.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
Waziristan has the most inbred and illiterate population in the world and has been practically impenetrable by Pakistani forces. I'm guessing any success there would be publicized, unless US special ops do what Pakistani regulars cannot, in which some face-saving would factor into the political calculus.
This is quickly becoming academic so let me re-emphasize my hope that a president Obama would know to surround himself with serious people in his administration. I'm also sure he'll be keen to learn from the mistakes of Bill Clinton's first administration, too, and not try to do too many radical things out of the box, all at once.
An advantage that Obama has over W Clinton is that he doesn't have quite the long list of people who he brought up through the ranks. The first Clinton cabinet was a bunch of young turks many of whom had been with Clinton for many years.
So far Obama has surrounded himself with some pretty high quality foreign policy advisors.
But this is an issue that is a long ways off. Right now Hillary is the bigger concern.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
I think if Obama is the democrat nominee, people will see him as just a pup compared to McCain and McCain benefit big from that.
I'm impartial to Huckabee, but I think he would secure every southern state on the map vs Obama. I have numerous die hard Democrat relatives here in TX and all have said if Obama and Huckabee are the nominees, they will vote Republican for the first time ever.
hitting the ballots, but we'd all still, eventually, after much soul searching, and fill in the blank for huckaflea....however, it would take the full 12 hours the polls are open here in Texas for me to do it.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
Of course, I speak for myself, not RedState.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
Hillary isn't universally loved by Democrats and Edwards is easy to paint as an ambulance chaser. Obama enjoys JFK's precedent as a junior senator who became president, even if he doesn't share JFK's ideology.
Aside from the fact that Edwards is claiming a win here, is anyone else ready to puke at the heartbreaking stories he is draging out to show how bad life is in the US.
She died because she couldn't pay for her surgery....why? why?
He couldn't talk because he didn't have insurance...why? why>
Better statement: Edwards continues to be considered a viable candidate...why? why?
When are people going to wake up and realize that class warfare politics (race warfare, religious warfare, etc.) is really what is getting in the way of making much needed changes. I'm hoping that the rest of the country repudiates the populist/class warfare antics that Iowa supported tonight.
Pastor HuckaFraud for Pres, Silk Pony for VP....what a team.
______________________________________
Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
Can you believe the crap he's spewing?
" Got to love the Lord for making things like that."
Morally Compromised
Jason, that is too funny, except that it might lead to a Politico headline: "Thompson Campaign to Endorse Chavez."
Felt good to vent that one. I'm sick of populism and I'm sick of emotions based politicking. Can we get back to issues and data?
He sounds like he just gave his acceptance speech for the Dem nomination. God, can we please get rid of this man. He is dangerous for our country.
"When are people going to wake up and realize that class warfare politics (race warfare, religious warfare, etc.) is really what is getting in the way of making much needed changes. I'm hoping that the rest of the country repudiates the populist/class warfare antics that Iowa supported tonight."
I wish I could say I believed the same. I think New Hampshire will. As for the rest of the country? Hmmm... Iowa bought the class warfare nonsense hook, line, and sinker. Well, that and Huckabee's "Come to Jesus" routine. I hate saying that. I'm an Evangelical Presbyterian, and I identify myself as an evangelical. That said, you don't dump the party for the first preacher that comes along and talks like a Joe Schmoe.
Every time I hear Huckabee whining about how much CEOs make, I could strangle the guy. And I'm pulling 40k per year right now. Only a flaming moron makes that argument. CEOs get to be CEOs because they have the talent and put in the effort to be CEOs. There aren't that many of them because it's a darn tough job to take. And men like Huckabee just sit back and spit on another's success and the free market in general, much to the delight of those who haven't thought far enough ahead to dream of retiring on anything but social security.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Come on, John.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
"apackof2, coming to a town near you!"
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
did I hear the crowd chanting: 'Billary" "Billary"
*retch*
Fred Thompson: Hands Down, the ONLY Consistently Conservative candidate.
Gawdfather, I will contribute so that Huck can get his teeth fixed (though he should have done so prior to jumping in the race).
...standpoint, conservatives got about 26% of the vote.
Now, seriously, why don't one of Thompson and McCain drops the race, endorses the other guy and then gather in a ticket for the general elections?
They're the only two decent conservatives in the bloody thing...
Right now, I could live with McCain as our nominee. It's hard to believe I'm saying that, but it's true.
A year ago I would never thought it possible to reach this point, but if McCain is the best we can do across economic, national security and social issues I'll glad take him and all the campaign finance baggage. A populist/statist Huck will make campaign finance look like the good old limited government days.
"Honor is self-esteem made visible in action." - Ayn Rand, West Point, 1974
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
So far 3 speeches driving me insane and my wife ready to divorce me.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
You complete me.
I feel like people like Vegas Rick are trying to hold me up.
Really like to see at least a point separation.
This mirrors the polls in Iowa way too much, which means we are going to be even more poll crazy in SC.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
surprises of the night: Fred Thompson is doing rather well. I just looked at the numbers at CNN and he is leading McCain for third place by 700 votes. I am pretty sure that McCain is going to take NH--he did in 2000--but that gives Thompson a headstart in South Carolina. The one thing he needs is money. He's not broke like the Politico says he is--CNN also has him at 12 mill with some change. But money is going to be his lifeline in SC. If he wins there or shows pretty well, that could produce a swell of money in his coffers.
Standing athwart history yelling stop!!!! http://nationalwhig.blogspot.com
Michael Steele's "he lived to see another day, he did well" is the best MSM press Fred has had in months.
Politico sucks. (Can I say that on RS?)
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
He's such a good man, with great principles.
I'd give my left (you know what) for his endorsement. This man should be in any cabinet, in any administration, and I think he will run again. If we can get something done with immigration, or if he does well in the cabinet, he can still be a POTUS at some point.
Local Hunter supporters like Fred.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Many Freepers are hoping for a Thompson-Hunter ticket. They are the two most conservative candidates we have, God bless them.
A conservative at the top, balanced by.... another conservative! Rush would absolutely approve.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
It makes sense, but then again, Tancredo's endorsement surprised me.
-- A true evolutionist would let endangered species die off. Anyone care to change sides?
-- Saving baby whales and baby trees, but killing baby humans. Huh?
-- imwithfred --
Tancredo's endorsement meant nothing to Romney, I think Hunter is very respected, Tancredo was strong on one issue, but was starting to show himself as a bit nutty.
Jason in NorCal- If you want to volunteer for Fred08 email me.
Can't say I agree with you there. Tancredo has been as rock solid of a conservative as there is. He's routinely fought excessive spending and was chastising Republicans well before 2006. Outside of the "bomb Mecca" comment, I'd put Tancredo and Hunter on fairly equal terms. I do see Hunter as the more solid of the two and definitely respect him a lot.
I'll pull for Fred in all of this, too. I'm a huge Romney supporter, but Thompson would be my next choice--and by a wide margin. Good luck with things! I'm glad to see Thompson moving along.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
My guess (based on no evidence whatsoever) is that this 08 campaign was designed to just get his name out there for future runs. I mean, from the beginning we had some pretty solid candidates with nationwide appeal in the race -- in Jan of 05, anybody could have predicted that McCain, Romney, and Rudy were running (and at the time George Allen and Pataki were mentioned as well).
My thought is that he might just be getting his name out there, and the beginnings of a ground game in place for 2012 or 2016 in a serious campaign.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
I predicted ALL the winners!
http://osi-speaks.blogspot.com/2008/01/just-as-i-predicted-obama-wins-io...
With malice towards none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see right.
So Huckabee's "triumph" of 9 points over Romney means he gets roughly 35,000 to Romney's 26,000.
The race between Fred and McCain for 3rd place puts them both at roughly 14,000.
Big woo!
Congrats to Huck for a modest victory, but Iowa is over-hyped!
in '04, we got about half the turnout that the Dems did for an equally tight contest? Dems are claiming more than 210,000 voters in their caucuses.
the fact that there were a ton of undecideds on the Repub side. If someone never made up their mind, then they wouldn't go to the caucus.
I'm serious. It concerns me that our side is not as energized as the Dems. Maybe that will change once the contest turns south and the field thins out. However, if this trends continues, we might as well nominate Ron Paul.
Caucus-going is an event, not a conventional primary. Democratic constituencies - academics, teachers, trial lawyers, etc- simply have more time for this than Republican constituencies like small business people, middle managers, etc.
In 2000 - the last time both parties were competing - Republicans had 30% higher turnout. I think it is more a measure of the commitment of the party core to politcs right now than anything else. It certainly isn't a representation of the Iowa population at large...
You make very good points. I saw not too long ago where that John Edwards held events that were more heavily attended than by either Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson--in Knoxville, Tennessee!
That is very bad before the general election. Knox County went to Bush by close to a 70:30 margin. It's strong Republican country, and yet Edwards outperformed even Thompson in terms of crowd volume in his home state.
I'm not sure how much all of this matters now, but it's reason for concern. Then again, who could have predicted that Huckabee would have risen from Ames and did what he did?
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
I imagine its fairly common for the party out of the white house to have bigger turnout. and remember Bush only won narrowly in 2004, and not at all in 2000. I'm only guessing, but I imagine Iowa party affiliation leans D, too, plus they have The Oprah sending subliminal messages to go to the caucus or something.
Don't be surprised if Fred shocks the world. I'm betting on a strong third place finish with about 15-16% of the vote for Fred.