John McCain Pushing All the Right Buttons
Yet still looks to come up short
By Leon H Wolf Posted in 2008 | 2008 | John McCain | New Hampshire — Comments (29) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
This video, which Dan highlighted in the diaries, is for my money the best ad of the entire campaign season thus far:
It is just another exhibit of the fact that of all the campaigns, McCain's seems to be hitting its stride at just the right moment: as the Huckaboom starts to fade, Romney's early-state strategy looks shaky (thanks in no small part to McCain's own resurgence in New Hampshire), Rudy continues slide both nationally and in early state polls, and Fred Thompson remains inexplicably on the mat. As Republican voters have gone throughout the ridiculously early 2008 primary campaign, they have had occasion to consider, in turn, the effect that the potential nominations of Rudy, Romney, and Huckabee would have on the conservative coalition, and McCain seems to be emerging in the mind of many as the "good enough" candidate, and his bona fides as a general election candidate are bolstered by his consistent strong polling performances against Hillary Clinton.
Yet to me, it still looks inevitable that McCain will ultimately come up short at the convention.
More below...
The main problem that McCain has right now is that he lacks a plausible path to the nomination. His ascendence in New Hampshire has been very impressive, and he has won both of the last two debates I saw by being the adult in the room. As he dared to knock ethanol pork in front of Iowa reminded the fiscal conservatives that McCain is probably the candidate who sits most in their corner when it comes to spending (not just taxes). His strong rhetoric in favor of the war has convinced many potential Rudy supporters that he will be as strong in the prosecution of the war as Giuliani would be. And during this campaign season, he has made all the right noises about supporting life issues. However, the fact remains that after New Hampshire comes a string of states in which McCain remains relatively anemic in the polls, making it difficult to imagine how he would turn a New Hampshire win into a win in Michigan or South Carolina, and he desperately needs one of those states to avoid total decimation in Florida. In short, while I'd be fine if McCain got the nomination, I just don't see a way that it can happen.
I think a reason for that is that a lot of Republican voters share pretty much the same view of McCain as I do. We personally admire his character and his life story, and we've come around to the idea that his positions are not so far away from ours. But in the back of our minds, we all have reason to remember at least one instance when he stabbed us in the back, whether through McCain-Feingold, the Gang of 14, or comprehensive immigration reform. And many of us have questions about his temperament, and ability to manage the leviathan that is the federal bureaucracy well (this remains the one reason why I still have Mitt Romney as my first choice). So perhaps the problem for McCain is that he has put himself in a position to be the second or third choice of almost everyone, but the first choice of a relative few.
The good news for McCain is that primary voters can, in some circumstances, display a remarkable ability to display a sort of subconscious emergent behavior. It may be that, sometime between New Hampshire and South Carolina, we will all "decide" that settling for McCain is a better option than risking Huckabee/Giuliani/[insert your worst nightmare here]. I know that it seems far-fetched that such a "decision" could be made by random, unconnected voters in distinct, separate locales, but this is the primary season and we have seen stranger things happen.
And right now it seems that despite the fact that McCain is hitting his rebound stride at exactly the right time, this is exactly what he needs to have happen.
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Polls change mightily once candidates drop out.
Here's my path:
1) Huckabee and Clinton win Iowa.
2) New Hampshire: Independents flock to GOP Primary and Romney dips from Iowa loss. McCain beats Romney, Huckabee comes in 4th, and Thompson an embarrassing 6th.
3) Independents, with no reason to vote in the Michigan Democratic primary, come out again for McCain. He comes in a surprise second, barely ahead of Romney despite the fact that Mitt is hometown boy.
4) South Carolina, Thompson has faded away and no serious placing for Giuliani besides 3rd NH. Romney is now in a downward spiral, and the top two are Huckabee and McCain.
5) Florida. Thompson, Romney, and Paul are non-factors. Giuliani spends most of his time attacking Huckabee, who he is nearly tied with there already and who (in this scenario) has already won two or three primaries. They fight, and fight, McCain takes the high road, McCain pulls it out OR comes second to Huckabee.
6) Feb. 5th: McCain either goes in with strong Florida momentum or general strength against Huckabee. McCain wins thanks to spillover from the other candidates not gravitating to Huckabee.
That's the scenario.
I would put money on your scenario being right. It will be an interesting January, that is for sure! I am curious if you think RP will have any double digit showings?
It is monarchical and aristocratical government only that requires ignorance for its support.
- Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1792
He's polling up there right now in some states, and if he beats a major candidate early on (Read: Fred Thompson in NH or Rudy Giuliani in IA) he'll get a bounce of momentum into the top four or five and hit double digits until Feb. 5th.
However, I think that if Huck wins Iowa, SC, and Florida, he will have enough momentum to win it all. Huck is competitive in states like Texas and California, and much of the south.
The Republican ticket will likely be Huckabee / McCain.
Huckabee/McCain, then I hope the GOP dies off quickly as real conservatives abandon it to start their own party. A party of intelligent conservatives who don't elect slick two timing governors from Hope Arkansas, and AZ Senators who think the Constitution is meaningless.
I'll say this and I hope RedState and other blogs implement this. A "No Whining Policy" should be put in place on blog sites the minute Huckabee and McCain sell the country out. You were all warned plenty but ignored the signs so don't come crying about how he promised us this and this...you allowed yourself to be hoodwinked and you get what you deserve.
Aside from the fact that the Rush-Will establishment will rally around the nominee -- even if it is Huckabee, perhaps with just the subdued enthusiasm that he is better than Hillary (a la Rudy a few months ago)... you could always go it alone or vote for Ron Paul as an independent.
Do you really think the Rush-Will establishment would rally around any nominee?..I don't see that happening not when they see the next nominee as George W. Bush II or some other form of a closet socialist.
It won't just be me voting Ind. if those are the nominees, look for a Lot of conservatives to go vote for Paul, not out of our faith in him but out of frustration with a party that has abandoned All of its principles. Not to get into a debate on this here but I might remind you and others aside from some of the crazy remarks Paul has made, the GOP used to stand for his views, so did Washington and Jefferson as well.
Paul will take votes away from a McCain/Huckabee campaign anyways and in that case I'd say it's well deserved.
Hope you guys are ready to defend "Huckacare" on here..you'll be saying things like "no Huckabee's plan is not socialized medicine, he's just rationing healthcare to get it under control."
If the GOP wants to anoint McCain fine, but I'll just go vote for Ron Paul in the 3rd Party. Why is it everytime we continue to sell ourselves short. Like the writer of this post remarked he has stabbed us in the back on so many important issues Why on earth do we as conservatives continue to sell ourselves out?
Why not for Once just Once we consider someone NOT part of the Washington D.C. political cycle, someone who has not served in the Senate for X number of years. I for one am tired of Senators thinking the U.S. Senate is some sort of launching pad for them to be President.
Romney is the better man for the job anyways, Fred would have been a different story if he weren't so lazy at campaigning.
Why not for Once just Once we consider someone NOT part of the Washington D.C. political cycle
Uhh, you mean like George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan? Maybe Dwight Eisenhower?
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
While the Gang of 14 agreement would've been enough, his continued support for federally funded embryonic stem-cell research in spite of recent developments makes it even more difficult for me to support him. As I've said before, I could force myself to vote for him in the general election if I absolutely had to, but I'd only vote for him in the primary if he was the last man standing in Rudy's way.
___________________________________________________________
Disclaimer: I am a member of a state-wide executive committee that is affiliated with Governor Mike Huckabee's campaign for the GOP presidential nomination
As a lifetime Arizonan, I have watched Mr. McCain. I really liked him about 15 years ago but he has changed dramatically in the last 10 years. For 13 years, I took care of my mother-in-law who had dementia. McCain's change in behavior (less able to control anger in public as one example) reminds me of her decline. I worry greatly about his being able to fulfill the job of President.
You owe the Senator an apology. Stick to the issues, unless you are a doctor, keep your politically motivated diagnosis to yourself.
I lived an agonizing 13 years as a full time caregiver to my mother-in-law who lived in my own house. I was at the doctors up to 2 times a week with her. I know first hand the signs and symptoms of dementia. I also have watched John McCain for all the years he has been in office. I never said he had dementia except that I worried because he has changed in behavior in the last 10 years which is one of the first signs of dementia. I have always liked McCain but I can't ignore what I see.
but he has made the right assurances wrt immigration. He screwed the pooch with McCain-Feingold, but no candidate has a perfect record. On his temperament, I haven't seen the blow-ups that occurred in 2000. It looks like he's realized that he's irritated a large number of GOPers over the years, and he's been working on reintroducing himself. He's doing well now because he's getting second looks from party members and they're liking what they see. I think every viable candidate--including McCain--deserves a serious second look at this point.
It's time to pick the best candidate out there.
All the nonsense is over.
It's time for Duncan Hunter to make his move!
If Hunter dropped the whole Mirror Trade idea I would vote for him. The man is strongly conservative on everything Especially Immigration.
I am unfortunately on a computer with no sound so I will have to take your word about the quality of the video. I agree that McCain is making a move at the right time, however that move is in New Hampshire only and unless that move results in a victory it will be for naught. He still has little money, organization, and his national polls are still weak. Thus, this move must result in victory in NH or it means nothing.
Two, where do you get that Huckabee is falling off? He isn't. This is very typical of what is being said in the blogosphere. He may in fact be falling off in the blogosphere. In fact, he is being pulverized in the blogosphere. HE ISN'T FALLING OFF THOUGH. His numbers remain strong and growing.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor
...for just about everyone except McCain, Romney, & Thompson.
www.scottbomb.com
Click here to donate to the Fred Thompson campaign.
Rudy and Huckabee. I probably should have phrased that differently.
www.scottbomb.com
Click here to donate to the Fred Thompson campaign.
Sorry... I posted a little early this am, a little sleep I guess.
This is the chart I was referring to.
www.scottbomb.com
Click here to donate to the Fred Thompson campaign.
... Bush's tax cuts which will likely expire and may trigger a recession.
... Immigration reform. I hate how McCain is called principled even though he just did a 180 on immigration reform. We all know where his heart lies and we all know his affection for compromise and we all know how an immigration bill will really look.
Hey here's something interesting. How is it that McCain gets a free pass for saying he realized he was wrong on immigration, yet with Romney he says he changed his mind, his record as Gov. showed it yet some choose to say oh he's a flip flopper!..
If anything with what has happened today in Pakistan your likely to see this go back to the two man race between Rudy and Romney. If it's a Rudy/Romney or vice versa ticket I could support that.
McCain may win Michigan regardless of NH or anything else. Not only does he have a long standing organization, he also has the pleasure of every I in the state voting on the Republican ballot, since only Clinton and Gravel appear on the Democratic one. At least one poll that asked showed that Is and Dems considering voting in the GOP primary in the state prefer McCain by a large majority. (http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OWY3OWU3ZTZkZTNhZjE1ODk0ZjVlODd...)
If McCain wins NH and Mich falls as I predicted, it seems like NH and Mich back-to-back would be quite a bump. SC may not be McCain central, but his military credentials may be enough to overcome his immigration positions if Huckabee is the only other candidate still viable.
I am going to be rosy about McCain until the last primary ballot is cast. Even taking away my optimism and bias, though, I think there is a plausible route for McCain to the nomination.
-Ben