John McCain's White House Bid: Dead in South Carolina
By Erick Posted in 2008 | McCain | straw polls — Comments (42) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Pay attention media people -- John McCain just lost his bid for the White House. In a South Carolina Straw Poll announced in Spartanburg, SC, McCain won with 164 votes.
Erickson? You crazy? How does that mean he lost?
Well, let's look at the details.
McCain has the entire South Carolina Republican structure: the Governor, one of two U.S. Senators, the vast majority of the state GOP legislative caucus.
Rudy Giuliani has nothing. There's no significant structure for Rudy in South Carolina. He has no significant presence and no significant hires in the state.
How did the straw poll break down:
164 McCain
162 Giuliani
158 Hunter
85 Brownback
80 Romney
21 Huckabee
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That's a tremendous number for Hunter. Which is why I got an email about it from the Hunter people.
"No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong." - Winston Churchill
It's extremely impressive! My intention wasn't to make light of the number.
My head was down post to the chant ;0)
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report
Given that nobody's really talking about Hunter, I'd say that number makes him the real winner here. How huge would it be if he used this, set up a real solid organization in SC and actually took the SC primary (or came in a very close, solid second)?
Given that none of the other candidates seem to really light a fire under the entire party, with major issues for each of them, isn't it possible that none of them will actually wind up being the winner?
Realistically, with the increasingly compressed schedule I think that this cycle will see a very long, and possibly uncertain campaign for the nomination. It would not surprise me in the least if the early states, including the states moving themselves up, all split out among McCain, Giuliani, Romney, and possibly others. That leaves the door open for us to go into March and April 2008 with still 3 or 4 people realistically in the race and the chance that they could hang around into the convention. And remember that delegates are only bound to their candidates on the first ballot. After that it's anybody's ball game.
We are not as sophisticated as are some of you big city folk, but we do have one saying that has some validity here.
A WIN is a WIN, no matter how you get it.
Its all well and good that Hunter and Giuliani had good showings, but they still lost.uuuu
"Life is too short, can't we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?"
I kept seeing it as tied as of a short while ago between McCain/Rudy...
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin
Not to mention the fact that MCain is BROKE. He has only about $500,000 in the bank and is not going to be able to catch Rudy or Mitt. I kind of like that.
I will open a vein..before I vote for McCain...LOL
I've been around my fair share of straw polls, and would hesitate to read too much into something like this. Phil Gramm taught me all I needed to know about straw polls - they are useful things in some regards, but don't get too worked up over them. Especially in a primary state like SC, where media is more important than organization (as opposed to caucuses, where the opposite is generally true).
That said, I hope it's true that McCain is in trouble.
Also, I didn't know Sanford had endorsed McCain in '08 (I know he did in '00). Dang, I guess that means he's serious about not running himself. Too bad, he's the best Republican we've got.
As much as some people want to believe McCain's campaign is dead, I still don't see a body. Declaring McCain dead prematurely is the surest way to get Rudy before we even know what we've bought. No thank you.
mccain is a bright guy, he does have a plan.
I do not support Mccain but I would still say he is in the lead. You guys who think Rudy is the for sure winner are being played by the MSM.
Molon Labe!
is to put McCain in the WH.
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Congressmen who willfully take actions during wartime that damage morale and undermine the military are saboteurs and should be arrested, exiled, or hanged. — J. Michael Waller
nt, but do not count him out, that is all i am saying
I was impressed by Brownback today
Molon Labe!
Our nominee will be Mitt. There is NO WAY that consercatives are going to vote for a man who has been married 3 times. Sorry boys, ain't going to happen. All the policy positions won't mean a hill of beans. McCain is too old and is imploding before our eyes. He can't raise the money. This election is going to be OVER in 11 months from now. McCain will NOT beable to raise the money, the Bush folks don't like him and they are going to back Mitt. I said about 1 year ago the race will be between Hillary v Mitt...Mitt wins hands down.
Posted the same thing on a bunch of blogs. I think they're cut and paste to save time, but I'm not going to bother to check...
____
Congressmen who willfully take actions during wartime that damage morale and undermine the military are saboteurs and should be arrested, exiled, or hanged. — J. Michael Waller
now Mitt gets the female vote over Hillary, don't bother even looking for it, he'll be gone shortly I hope!
Well done is better than well said. —Benjamin Franklin
And it would take more than this to banished I assume.
I do notice that not one shred of evidence or proof of what she's saying after being asked by both of us.
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report
"There is NO WAY that conservatives are going to vote for a man who has been married 3 times. Sorry boys, ain't going to happen."
So, who exactly do you think Rudy's 162 votes were? Those notorious SC left-wing Republicans? This poll is proof that conservatives CAN and WILL vote for a man with 3 wives and no guns. And if he gets the nomination, you'll bet they'll vote for him over Hillary.
"I am afraid that even after the American people will elect those who promise to leave Iraq, the U.S. will not do so." - Hamas leader Abu Abdullah
I have NOT cut and pasted ANYTHING... What Proof? I am postinf my OPINION..just like you. What kind of PROOF does a person need to have an opinion..hmmmmmmmmm?
Oh, by the way...yes I am posting SIMILAR comments on all these little blog postings. What about it? What's it to you?
I have an opinion and I am sharing it with ALL the people that click onto any or all of these little blog postings.
Really? Was Reagan ON HIS THIRD WIFE when he ran for office? In CA or for the White House? I didn't think so.
How many broken marriages does he have? Yes, I know, he isn't running for anything. But lots of nice, little old ladies love him to death.
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
You know Reagan was married twice, right? So two is ok, but 3 is not? Just trying to be clear.
Everyone makes mistakes. Some make more than others - hell, I can personally attest to that! If you are going to dismiss Rudy for his mistakes, I hope for your sake that all the other candidates have lived completely perfect lives.
------------------------------
"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same." - Ronald Reagan
Rush has been married and divorced 3 or 4 times. Can't remember and don't care. Have you ever noticed that Rush really doesn't talk all that much about "family value's"? There is a good reason for that, he has none..no good ones at any rate. Listen, Rush is AN ENTERTAINER who talks about politics. Yes he is serious at times, but if you ask him he will say he makes his living entertaining the politically minded. There are about 14 million PRACTICING Catholic that will never vote for Rudy. He can never win the presidency. Oh, he won't give up just yet. He can win alot of moderate Prodestants in a general election. But they won't be voting in OUR PRIMARY. I just don't see how Rudy can win the Republican Primary..unless most CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS turn thier backs on just about everything they believe in.
And what you seem to forget is that the bar has not so much been lowered by people like President Reagan, who was in a very public divorce BEFORE seeking political office; but the bar has been completely knocked off by politicans like Der Schlickmeister, who set standards in office NOBODY on the Republican side could match...with the possible exception of Mark Foley.
..unless most CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICANS turn thier backs on just about everything they believe in.
You mean things like forgiveness, understanding, and wanting to elect a president and not a pastor?
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
Dennis Kucinich's West Cleveland district has an inordinately large Catholic population, and they vote for a guy who not only has stellar ratings from NARAL, but also once bankrupted their city. Just because somebody has done something doesn't mean it will stop people from voting for them.
"I could explain, but that would be very long, very convoluted, and make you look very stupid. Nobody wants that... except maybe me."
It’s all well and good to try to make the pitch to people based on what you believe their beliefs are. We do that all the time in GOTV efforts.
But it’s another thing entirely to presuppose that because someone belongs to a particular religion (or race or gender) that they have some inherent “interest.” There are many Catholics who are pro-choice and many who believe that we have a duty to aid the poor and government is a legitimate tool to do this. I don’t agree with either position but even if I were Catholic, I would be cautious about publicly telling other Catholics – particularly in a partisan forum – what their “interest” is because of their faith (or gender or race) even if I believed my own faith lead me to different conclusions.
I'm not a South Park Republican, I'm a King of the Hill libertarian.
Where am I wrong in this thought? I'd like to know. Seriously.
Click the "reply to this" link at the bottom of the post in which you wish to reply to. It helps keep the comments nested and orderly.
Thanks!
Two thirds of the world is covered by water, the other third is covered by Champ Bailey
Everyone makes mistakes???? Are you kidding? I said on another post I can give a person 1 divorce. Yes, people do make mistakes but with something a serious as marrage I would hope that they will have figured it out by the second time. I guess I'm old fashoned that way. I come from a family that does not divorce, we work out our problems. You seem like a nice enough kid but really, how many times do you think you would keep getting married if they all ended in divorce. Not to mention the fact that RUDY just happened to trade in each of his wives for a YOUNGER women.. oh no...
"A man can never have too much red wine, too many books, or too much ammunition." -- Rudyard Kipling
DAH .....who put you in charge? and your comments are so enlightening? Really??? Well, I guess you told me.
Click the "Reply To This" right at the bottom of each post. It's in the blue border right before "User Info" and #
Two thirds of the world is covered by water, the other third is covered by Champ Bailey
yes.. I see it now. Thank you! I realize that I'm not up to par with all the brilliant minds here. I think I know my place now. I shall just read and be enlightened by the great minds that post here regularly. Thanks Again!
I've hoped a Straight Talk Express keg party would materialize in the region, as it did in South Carolina in 2000.
I don't care if Rudy has been married 15 times - he is better than Hillary or Obama
I don't care if Mitt's position HAS changed =-- he is still better than Hillary or Obama
I personally support Newt but I WILL vote for Hillary or Obama if McCain gets the nomination
Just my personal opinion -- nothing more and nothing less
paulnashtn
Or your conservatism one.
I could see you saying that you wouldn't vote in the presidential election, or that you'd vote libertarian, or that you'd stay home, but ANY true conservative that calims he'd actually pull the lever for Hillary is simply not being intellectually honest.
I'd vote for Snarlin Arlen Specter before I'd vote for Hillary. I'd vote for Jim Kolbe before I'd vote for Hillary. I'd even vote for Ralph Nader before I'd vote for Hillary. (at least he admits he's a commie
People like you who say things like that are understandably pissed at McCain, but let's be realistic here. The man speant the better part of his young adult life getting beaten, choked, whipped, and gagging on his own blood for his country while Hillary was burning flags and spitting on his comrades when they returned. When you are in the privacy of the ballot box and you see those two names, can you really say that you are going to vote for a godless, lying,u antisemetic, lesbian, communist over a true American Patriot just because you see campaign finance reform or immigration enforcement differently? Get real.
"Life is too short, can't we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?"
I could see you saying that you wouldn't vote in the presidential election, or that you'd vote libertarian, or that you'd stay home, but ANY true conservative that calims he'd actually pull the lever for Hillary is simply not being intellectually honest.
Given the right opponent, anybody is electable in my mind. So for example, if the GOP decides to sit out the election in '08, and Dennis Kucinich is making a surprisingly strong run as the Communist Party nominee ... whoah, those were some strong mushrooms I ate last night.
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli
you ARE crazy. None of the candidates won or lost their bid for the presidency in this straw pole. It doesn't mean anything and it never did. But even if it did mean something, McCain still won it, which can not possibly mean that his candidacy is over.
The SC straw poll consisted of about 700 people who were willing to drive to the meeting place in South Carolina, two years before the election, to vote on potential candidates who may or may not even be in the race by the time the primaries get going. So a better title for this piece might be "McCain's presidential candidacy: not quite as strong among obsessive political junkies as I had expected, but still stronger than anybody else in that category."
A precedent embalms a principle.
- Disraeli


McCain seems to be really stumbling out of the gate!
And I think you're right his WH bid is DOA not that I'm complaining. All of the other candidates will get a fair look see from me except for McCain. Just can't vote for him.
Like Docj said: All together now...
Well that’s a little over the top but catchy! :0)
Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Senior writer for The Hinzsight Report