LA-SEN: New Poll Shows Landrieu (D) Would Be Destroyed by Jindal (R)
Public Opinion Strategies (R) Poll Puts Landrieu Under 40%
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (18) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 1/22-23 for the NRSC; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.38% (release, 3/8). Tested: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-01).
Jindal (R) 55
Landrieu (D) 39
Reelect Landrieu?
Reelect 51
Time for new person 42
The NRSC release also mentions that: "In a head-to-head match-up against Landrieu," Reps. Richard Baker (R-06) and Charles Boustany, Jr. (R-07) each "wins his respective media market(s) by 15 points while holding the incumbent under 40%. ... Thus, anywhere a potential Republican candidate has name ID equal to Landrieu's ID, she trails by double digits." (Hat tip: Hotline ($))
Note 1) this is a partisan poll and 2) they did not release the head-to-head numbers except for Jindal. The first means it is all tilted a bit toward the Rs, but it seems that Jindal would be ahead regardless. Of course, Jindal is not running for SEN because he will be GOV Jindal by then which is his life dream so don't waste your time pining for him to run for SEN.
More below:
The second factor is frustrating. I presume the head-to-head numbers show Landrieu ahead. But that makes sense since both of the Congressmen are not known state-wide. It would be good to see what the starting point is for their chances. If Landrieu is up 49-40 against them, I'd say they are in a good position. If Landrieu is up 55-30, that'd be different.
Regardless, Landrieu's 51% re-elect is low. If the NRSC or any other group (i.e. blogs) force her to defend her left-of-center voting record in a right-of-center state, it would not take much to push Landrieu below 50. And having SEN Vitter and (future) GOV Jindal helping out should give the eventual R nominee a lot of support that LA GOPers have not always had.
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LA-SEN: New Poll Shows Landrieu (D) Would Be Destroyed by Jindal (R) 18 Comments (0 topical, 18 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I haven't followed LA politics for long (really Jindal caught my fancy and I've followed them much closer since then). But I have read elsewhere that Breaux would not be fond of a close, tough race. Also, it makes sense that retired politicians would not want to jump back into the fray for a fight. They can influence things without the grueling effort of a campaign.
I'd love to see more prospective Breaux-Jindal polls. But if they repeatedly show Jindal ahead before the game even begins, I agree that Breaux is unlikely to give up the "good life" of being a lobbyist for a drawn out campaign.
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Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
Lousiana is a Conservative state that Republicans should pursue. Bush won the state by about 14%, this should be easy pickings for Republicans.
So many Red States have Democrats as their Senators, especially ones with "cheap" media markets.
The smart money would be to invest first in states like Lousiana instead of more expensive media markets such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey etc.
There are over 30 "deep" red states, many of them rural with low populations. Republicans should technically have at least a permanent 60 seat majority in the Senate.
If Republicans could build a permanent majority in the Senate, we could completely rebuild the Judiciary Branch of our government. That means only constructionist judges would be approved, no more liberal judges legislating from the bench.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
It is also a neat concept to form a PAC around.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Said a few days ago that he wasn't running. - http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/suburban/6325427.html
It's a shame, since he's from a swing area in the state (he holds Chris John's old seat), and he has the unique combination of being battle tested thanks to his 2004 campaign and being a fresh face.
Well, it would be a tough open house seat to hold, so there's some solace.
I'm bullish on R chances in a Presidential election year in LA with Vitter and Jindal in place to help out the nominee. So, I'd prefer Boustany stay where he is and grow the party in that district.
I think Baker or Dardenne would be good choices, although I think early polling put Landrieu up quite a bit on Dardenne (who is a statewide name). Thus, I'm hoping Baker jumps in.
However, there are two other "outside the box" possibilities. One is Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council. He is from East Baton Rouge and was a former member of the LA House of Reps. He is also a former Marine.
Perkins ran in 2002 for the same Senate seat. He won 10% in the jungle primary leaving Landrieu and Terrell.
The other is Woody Jenkins who is one of the LA GOPers who has put in a lifetime of work for conservative causes. He became a D when only one state legislator was a Republican. As a D, he endorsed Reagan over Carter. He has run for SEN several times as a D (78 and 80), when Rs didn't run a candidate. He switched to being an R in 1994. He ran against Landrieu in 1996 and lost by only 5,000 votes out of over 1,000,000 in the closest race in LA history. The state is much more R now and Woody seems very respected in R circles. He is a bit older than most first time Senators at 60, but he could serve one or two terms without problem.
All in all, there is still a bench in LA. And Landrieu's plateau is 55%. So anyone who can bring attention to her voting record and her pro-abortion views in very pro-life LA should have a chance.
______________________________________
Social Security Choice - Club For Growth
Though he holds a statewide office, his name ID is less than it should be, for the following reasons:
1) Secretary of State is a "down-ballot" office, one that garners significantly less attention than Governor.
2) He ran in an off-year special election, which always have lower turn-outs, and therefore not as many people pay attention.
3) Most of the campaign was a crowded jungle primary that he won with less than 30% of the vote. With so many names, and with his plurality so small, its evident that there's still a lot of room to grow in terms of name ID.
4) His opponent dropped out of the run-off, ending the one-on-one statewide campaign that would have given Dardenne his best chance at introducing himself to the state.
The poll that matches up Dardenne and Landrieu gives him a 66% name ID, but you can count that most of that is simply an acknowledgement that someone named "Jay Dardenne" is the Secretary of State. Most voters don't have an opinion on him, therefore his 20-point deficit isn't as bad as it looks. Once voters are given the chance to learn more about Dardenne, his numbers will go up. Given his resume and his record, he'd be a great candidate and an even greater Senator.
Minus Jindal, of course. Dardenne would also be a strong candidate. Given that Boustany and McCrery have already declined, if we don't get one of those two in, I think its safe to say we've exhausted the top tier. Not that the seat wouldn't be winnable, but that it would tougher to pull off.
After Jindal Moves into the LA Gov's Mansion, should he move over to the White House in 2012?
-Steve S.
"Annoy A Liberal, Work Hard And Smile"
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson
Do you guys know that Jindal is a 'Macaca'?
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[i]coulter, hannity, limbaugh, bush, war, death, iraq, bin laden, afghanisthan, pakistan, iran, saudi arabia[/i]
A mind is indeed a terrible thing to waste. Along with all the effort it took to get an account here...
be gone, tool.
" in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years."
Abe Lincoln
Maybe for his next trick he'll go spray paint the Capitol steps or burn a flag!
The country NEEDS heroes like this!
Saturday cartoons to sign up....
" in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years."
Abe Lincoln
You were the wind beneath my wings.
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We are all heroes, you and Boo and I. Hamsters and rangers everywhere, rejoice!
Just another sign of the failing education system.
Sad, just really sad. Ignorance is such a debilatating disease
"Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori"
Contributor to The Minority Report
You had mentioned numbers showing Breaux/Jindal being tight. Know you can't release them, but my instincts with what I know about Breaux is that he isn't likely to run if he had to run a tough, nasty race to win with a good possibility that he'd lose. The only close race he EVER ran was his first race for Senator, and he didn't perform incredibly well.
Thoughts?
http://www.myelectionanalysis.com