Let's Talk Polls
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (13) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Ryan Sager has the latest poll data.
To the Ludicrously Early Poll Mobile, Robin! ...
Quinnipiac polled 1,166 American voters between April 25 and May 1.
Compared to Quinnipiac's last national poll in February, Mr. Giuliani fell to 27% from 40% — a huge tumble. Mr. Romney barely budged, going to 8% from 7%. Mr. McCain also barely budged, going to 19% from 18%. And Mr. Thompson burst onto the scene, coming in at 14%, having not been included in the last poll (and, as usual, stealing third place from Mr. Romney, despite not having lifted a finger).
I actually think a Fred! candidacy will hurt Romney and McCain more than Giuliani in the long run. While Fred! is clearly taking support from Rudy right now, in the long run, I think his candidacy will overshadow Romney and, as both Romney and McCain stagnant (which this poll suggests is already happening), more people will drift to Fred!
Already there is a rumor that high profile supporters of Romney, McCain, and Giuliani and flirting with Fred!'s campaign. Interestingly, there is this one bit Sager pulls out that holds hope for McCain:
But, a little deeper down in the numbers, there are some positive signs for Mr. McCain. Specifically, look at Question 2 on this most recent Q-Poll. Mr. Giuliani has beaten the rest of the field among white Evangelicals in just about any poll I've ever seen. But when Quinnipiac breaks down this most recent poll and looks at white Evangelicals, Mr. McCain comes out on top with 21%. Mr. Giuliani is tied with Mr. Thompson at 17%.
As I've said before, Ramesh Ponnuru has almost singlehandedly rehabilitated John McCain through pointing out how unacceptable a social liberal should be to Republican primary voters. As this thought gets picked up by the grassroots it stands to continue helping McCain unless or until the grassroots really gets comfortable with Fred! Thompson.
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Let's Talk Polls 13 Comments (0 topical, 13 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
First, I think it is undeniable that right now Thompson pulls from Giuliani. I think this is because Giuliani has wide and shallow support. There are many supporters who think he can win and if they have to pick a not-so-true-conservative candidate then lets go with the really popular one to Stop Hillary.
Second, McCain's support has been narrow but deep. He has a residual from the 2000 campaign that have stuck by him and not budged. I don't think Thompson affects those supporters at all. However, he needs to pick up other less dedicated supporters and Thompson could be stealing those away.
Third, Romney probably does lose the chance to pick up conservatives who don't like the Top 2 when Thompson enters. But any campaigning mistakes by Thompson make Romney The Executive look good. But there is not room for both of them.
Overall, Thompson entering makes the landscape more flat. It goes from a 40-30-10 3-way race to a 30-25-15-10 4-way race. And if it stays that way then Thompson hurts Giuliani and Romney while helping McCain and himself. In fact, he might hold back enough support from Giuliani in IA, NH and SC to give all 3 to McCain. They are good friends and Thompson could be a gravitas-enhancing VP choice for his old buddy.
I find it hard to see Thompson's entry hurting McCain. The people excited about Thompson are leery of McCain, enough so that they are generally choosing Giuliani over him.
For example, I think mbecker is a good example of the Hate McCain, Lean Giuliani, Will Bolt For Thompson crowd.
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Bobby Jindal Saves Louisiana
but the cause of the movement in the polls is certainly up for debate.
First and foremost, the viability of the Giuliani candidacy was probably more of an anti-McCain response than a pro-Giuliani movement. For all of his warts, Giuliani has NOT spent the last 6 years attacking positions that Republicans feel are important. Giuliani has been a loyal Republican, at least to the party if not to the ideals, which is more than can be said for McCain. McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, Gang of 14, and so on.
Second, the McCain campaign was advanced by the MSM, not by the Republican party. Until there were other viable candidates, McCain was the heir apparent. Given the choice of McCain vs. Clinton/Kerry/Gore/Biden/Obama/et al, McCain looked pretty good. Put another national figure in the mix, and McCain began to fall. Put a second, a third, candidate in the mix, and the votes get distributed even more.
IMHO, Giuliani attracts a large grudging respect because he holds to his values. There is no question that he will pursue the War on Terror relentlessly, which is a very big deal. He has no truck with those who would coddle terrorists, which cannot be said for McCain (torture issue). But abortion, gun control and gay rights won't take Giuliani far when the tough campaigning starts. Someone is going to point out that Giuilani is a Lieberman. He agrees with Republicans on terror but not much else. I can't believe that 31% of the Republican party is pro-abortion, gun control, gay rights, higher taxes, etc. At least 31% are anti-McCain, apparently even to the point of accepting Giliani's more liberal social views.
McCain, rehabilitated or not, is due for a beating. Maybe not from the candidates, but from grassroots Republicans who refuse to forget that he attacked Evangelicals in 2000 and the rest of the Republican party in 2001-2006.
I think you are wrong about Thompson hurting McCain more than Giuliani. If the Giuliani numbers are a protest vote against McCain, the protesters will be able to fall in with Thompson, vote against McCain, and maintain their other conservative social values.
The evangelical vote will be interesting. The 21% number probably should NOT be considered a position of strength for McCain, especially since his opponents have a lot of issues that may bother evangelicals. Giluiani's life and social positions, Romney's Mormonism and apparent flip flops on abortion and gay rights will be big issues for evangelicals, a la Dobson, etc. In spite of that, apparently 79% of evangelicals do not support McCain. That's interesting, my friend. Very interesting.
For some reason I was thinking that supporting the Democratic candidate for Governor does not qualify as being a loyal Republican. But I guess it is okay if you support the other side on election day, just so long as you do not talk about getting along with the other side.
More conservative? I don't think it is wrong to not support the party on Election day; I just think it is rediculous to be called a loyal Republican when you do so.
"At the end of the day, I seek to be a strident and articulate force on the side of self-determination. Ultimately, the pursuit of freedom ought to remain our paramount ambition. Without liberty, ideology rings sickeningly hollow."
an anti-war candidate, and Hillary hasn't been able to move in that direction fast enough without looking like an opportunistic flip-flopper. Despite the Clinton machine, I think she looses in the primaries. You can't be middle of the road in the middle of a war, and she's trying the triangulation strategy because that's how her husband won the second time around.
best bet.
They(the far left base) held their nose when they first supported Bill Clinton back in 1992 because they knew he could win. I remeber when he took off time from the election to go back to Arkansas to sign a death warrant for a mentally retarded prisoner to be electrecuted this surely didn't endear him to the left wing base Most of the American public consider Bill Clinton a Centrist and the left knows that the American public will never ever vote for someone on the far left. Hillary will be the nominee.
I'm not advancing a Giuliani candidacy, and certainly not a McCain candidacy. But even though I'm not a Rudy supporter, I have to say he has not publicly attacked the president's policies nor advanced opposition policies against the mainstream Republicans. He has campaigned for a number of Republicans, and has the good sense not to publicly campaign against the will of the party on important issues. His public image for supporting the president is better than McCain's, justified or not.
I think I made it clear that I find Giuliani to be unacceptable to the rank and file Republicans, but at least 27% find him less unacceptable than McCain. I think Rudy's support will melt, and I think Thompson will pick up the support that Giuliani loses, assuming Thompson wants to run.
It's interesting that the MSM decreed crown prince/princess of the two parties are struggling. Some polls show Obama leading Hillary! now, and McCain is struggling. He is still behind a man that looks more Democrat than Republican. That's saying a lot. What is also interesting about these two is that they have alienated a large section of the rank and file, Hillary! offending the nutroots, McCain the core of the Republican party (I would like to say that the nutroots represent the core of the Dems, but unfortunately I don't think that's the case. Or maybe, fortunately, assuming the gods have decreed that a Dem will sit in the White House).
The spoiler will be if Thompson decides not to run. I don't see McCain or Giuliani creating the passion needed for a Republican to win the general election. Neither of them are seen as "Republican" enough. Romney I can't predict. His poll numbers have been static in the lower regions, in spite of the money. Unless he starts saying something to generate excitement, I don't see him moving above 10%. But if the party needs an alternative to Giuliani and McCain, and Fred doesn't run, then Romney may see some movement. I think he has a decent chance of picking up numbers from Giuliani.
Bolshie again. And keep CAIR from White House dinner invitations and caucusing with the Dem leadership.
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When taunted by a Liberal in Parliament that he was going to die "on the gallows or of a vicious social disease," Disraeli replied "That depends on whether I embrace your principles or your mistress."
Personally, I think that the one with the most to lose against Fred Thompson is Giuliani, as voters will tend to replace "style over substance" with "style with substance". In economic terms, Romney is more of a substitute to Fred (albeit a substitute with sizable negatives), and Giuliani is an inferior good (people will swallow their pride and vote for him provided nobody better shows up, which Thompson could serve as the "normal good" in the situation). All are strong candidates, but Giuliani's name recognition and charisma are doing a lot for him right now despite some of his public statements. The longer the campaign goes on, the worse it will probably get for Rudy.
McCain could, if Fred picks up more momentum, could either serve as a monkey wrench to really make things competitive (as they are rather close on most policy issues, just McCain appears weaker on regulatory and taxation stuff) or be, for the same reasons, completely swamped by Fred Thompson's meteoric rise in the polls. I highly disagree with Ponnuru's take on how to consider voting in the primary campaign (as, although somewhat socially conservative, those issues rank extremely low for me), but one has to admit that, so long as people do think about returning to that side of the party, Giuliani would be in serious trouble. We'll see, though.
"At the end of the day, I seek to be a strident and articulate force on the side of self-determination. Ultimately, the pursuit of freedom ought to remain our paramount ambition. Without liberty, ideology rings sickeningly hollow."