Mason-Dixon Shows Romney & McCain Must Rethink Strategy
By Erick Posted in 2008 — Comments (50) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
The conventional wisdom, for what that's worth, has had it that McCain and Romney would follow the traditional path from Iowa to New Hampshire to South Carolina — just the way it has always been played. With Giuliani and the compact primary schedule, he'd go to the big states ignoring places like Georgia, South Carolina, the southern states, the conservative strong holds, etc. and make a play for bigger states like Florida, New York, California, and Michigan.
Consider just how much Fred Thompson has stirred up the race. He and Rudy are now neck and neck in Florida, once considered a stronghold for Rudy. Now,
A new Mason-Dixon Poll gives Thompson 25 percent of the vote among Republican presidential candidates. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 21 percent, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is next with 11 percent, and McCain is fourth with 7 percent.
Consider that John McCain has been campaigning in South Carolina since 2000. He's devoted exceptional resources to the state and has not gotten the traction he hoped. And consider Mitt Romney who has even started running ads in South Carolina, which are apparently designed to keep him in place. They don't appear to be moving him upward right now.
Mason-Dixon is one of the most reputable and reliable polling firms in the country. If they have Fred Thompson in the lead in a state where he's made no major efforts and Romney and McCain trailing badly in a state where they have made significant tactical and strategic investments, this game is coming to a close sooner than most of us might have thought.
It would not surprise me to see McCain drop out around Labor Day, out of energy and money. Romney will stay in. He has the money and the desire to be President. But the race is more and more shaping up to be a Rudy v. Thompson race. And I suspect most of the shots we start seeing being fired at Fred will come from Massachusetts.
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I agree the race is shaping up to be a race between Giuliani and Thompson. It will be interesting to see how well Thompson performs when he formally begins to campaign.
McCain had a real shot early on, and I was fully expecting the race to come down between him and Giuliani, but his support of amnesty has absolutely destroyed his candidacy. I'm amazed his campaign didn't see the backlash he would receive from supporting and co-sponsoring amnesty legislation (twice) with Ted Kennedy. McCain still thinks he can win a Republican primary with the support of the liberal MSM.
Romney had a real shot of winning the nomination, he has run an impressive campaign, he's an articulate and focused politician. He had also carved out a nice niche for himself being to the right of the other top-tier candidates, but I think Thompson entering the race ended his chances. Mitt's conservative support will quickly go to Thompson, as many have never fully trusted Romney's recent convenient epiphanies on a number of issues.
Things change quickly in politics, and Thompson's honeymoon will quickly end now that he is such a prominent target.
"Back in the thirties we were told we must collectivize the nation because the people were so poor. Now we are told we must collectivize the nation because the people are so rich. "
William F. Buckley, Jr.
Senator Thompson has to time his entry to Maximize the new guy effect while still letting him do whats necessary.
On a personal note I don't think he can take Florida from Rudy. There are too many ex-newyorkers here who consider him the greatest mayor since laguardia.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I bet if we threw your name into a poll, you'd get 10% off the bat.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
You have been in the polls as unnamed republican.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Just curious, this primary thing is every 4 years and I lose track.
It's war -- so when can we start shooting back at the enemy Democrats?
Each CD gets 3 delegates, and whoever wins the district gets the 3 for that CD. Another 36 go to the statewide winner. So if Rudy is drawing his support from ex-NYers it may not be so great for him as the tend to be concentrated in a few areas. Further the State Chair, the National Committeeman and the National Committeewoman go to the convention unpledged regardless of results.
This same system will be used in other large states, including California, and even some smaller states like Alabama. Pennsylvania uses a loophole primary, so delegate selection is not linked to the preference primary - and all delegates are officially unpledged.
Really, there is wholly the possibility that Feb. 5th does not produce a clear and convincing victor in this contest and the candidates will have to do some jockeying going into the next rounds. This is why I don't think McCain will drop out. He will hang around in hopes of having a bloc of delegates to use as a bargaining chip. The VP may very well be the guy that can get one of the candidates to the magic number before we head into March.
The guy not in the race always has better numbers
The guy not in the race doesn't have the same name ID as the other guys. Sure, bloggers know who he is. Your average primary voter? Not so much. OTOH, everybody knows who McCain and Rudy are.
On a personal note I don't think he can take Florida from Rudy.
I would pick him as the most likely to bail if the numbers turn against him, out of the big 3 (4 once FT gets in).
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Stick the fork in'em. Rudy needs a bit more basting but the thermometer is heading up as Fred turns up the heat.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
but that won't matter as much as you think. Most of those Dems in Florida are voting Democrat, so I don't see them influencing the Republican outcome as much as you do.
The best that Rudy can hope for is to carry the big (ahem, liberal) states that Eric mentions: Florida, New York, California, and Michigan. Assuming that Fred does not stumble and fall horrendously, he will carry everything else handily. And he should stay close enough in those four states.
One aspect of the Republican race that gets ignored is the large number of uncommitted. The aggregate numbers in this poll are 64% for the top 4 candidates. Some polls have the aggregate as high as 78% for the top 4. Even at that, 22% makes all the difference. 36% in the Mason Dixon poll is huge.
Assume that the numbers for the Mason-Dixon poll are correct, with 36% still uncommitted. I know, some of them are for Huckaby/Brownback/Ron Paul/Tancredo/the other Thompson, people who might be committed (but probably should be committed). Support for these guys won't last. The large truly uncommitted block wouldn't commit because they didn't like the Top 3 guys. Each has warts that could not be overcome, at least in the eyes of the uncommitted. Thompson's entry into the race gives them an acceptable choice.
75% of the remaining 36 points go to Fred.
McCain is going, going, gone. Where does his 7 points go? Fred.
Momentum shows the Romney supporters that he's going, too. At least half abandon him. Split them between Rudy and Fred.
End result, Thompson with 55%, Rudy with 35%. Thompson offers Rudy the VP, with real power and responsibility, much like Cheney has. A big voice in the war on terror.
Does Rudy accept? Well? ????? Someone???
Can Fred/Rudy beat the Dems? If the immigration bill passes the Senate, Hillary!® has a major hickey, even if it dies in the House. Just having Hillary!® commit by voting will have an impact.
A major issue will be Iraq. If the surge is working by Nov, 2008, the Dems will look small and petty. Hillary!® will be blamed for the success by the netroots for not opposing it sufficiently. If the surge has not worked, Republicans are in deep trouble, which explains the Democrats strategy of aiding and abetting Al Qaeda.
Last, both men are outsiders, and Americans have not elected an insider for a long time. Hillary!® is the ultimate insider. Hated by the party, still leading the pack. IN-SIDE-ER.
Rudy does have an ace up his sleeve.
He can run on before and after pictures of NYC.
Socons think his position on abortion rules him out. If you expose them to before and after pictures of times square and hells kitchen, their hearts will flutter with visions of filth being eliminated.
Rudy has the ultimate values platform. The smut industry reigned in. Its capital conquered by Disney. Areas near schools cleaned up. Zero Tolerance for crime. Its a real solid record.
Hillary, I agree with Rush on. You won't have seen negative turnout until she gets the nomination.
(P.S. I am a Rudy supporter)
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
first, almost uncontested is NY and NJ (just changed rules Fri to winner take all) = 140+ delegates = 12% votes needed for nomination is bagged for RG
second, you conceded to RG (Claif, Mich, Fl) ok but you have to look at each state and determine how those 350 delegates are allocated. RG likely does not get no more than 200-230 delegates = another 17%
third, you skipped a couple of other "liberal" (or perhaps better stated as moderate) states e.g. Ohio, Conn, RI, Md, Del, Pa, Minn, Wisc, Ill, Hawaii, Wash, Oregon, VT, Me, DC, PR, VI, Col, etc etc - about 700 delegates = RG gets 300+ = another 23%
fourth, u might look at Tex (third biggest financial contributer to RG) and La (which is considered very pro RG) plus the unique situation in Mo. I think RG will do very well in these states = 260 delegates. RG gets 100 delegates = another 7%
fifth, amid all the flurry about FT in SC, did u note who is only 4% behind him - RG. If you look at polls in most of the Southern and Western states, you will see RG gets a consistent 25%+ of the vote. RG gets out of the rest of South and West ... maybe 200 delegates = 20%
while we only know what we know today, a reasonable estimate is that RG (due to how allocation of delegates works) likely has 75%+ of delegates pretty locked up. can all of this change for RG for better or worse ... of course.
MR is going to use all those bucks to beat FT up pretty bad in next 60 days ... and big bucks is what MR has.
we will see in 60 days and post FT's first debate in August how it is shaking out.
"Most of those Dems in Florida are voting Democrat..."
Most of those New Yorkers are voting Democrat... Actually, maybe I wasn't so far off, after all.
So, let me get this straight- Fred Thompson is leading in Floriday, so therefore he is going to stampede everyone to the candidacy, yet Romney has huge leads in Iowa and NH and his campaign is on life support? Where is the logic here? If you stop looking at national polls and focus on states, you'll see that Romney is still in much better shape than Fred and Rudy is in real trouble.
D
Who cares what what a bunch of corn farmers and granite heads think? Romney is not going to get the nomination, get over it.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Can you at least put forth an argument, rather than ranting? How can you possibly ignore NH and IA? The idea that the short schedule makes them less important makes no logical sense, it makes them MORE important. Think of the momentum if Romney wins the first two, all the undecideds will go for him.
As a northern conservative, I can tell you right now that his "aw-shucks", slow, stupid sounding accent isn't going to play anywhere outside of the bible belt. He is a great writer, but the average American will be bored to tears by him in person.
I can't wait to see Fred supporters when his campaign comes unglued. Given his pathetic performance on Leno and his crappy speaches, it's pretty clear that he can't do anything but read a script (and apparently not even that well). You Fred supporters have signed on to an idea and logic had left the building...
D
of all the momentum when Romney wins the endorsement of a bunch of corn farmers and granite heads, I just couldn't possibly ignore it.
BTW, you should identify yourself as THE northern conservative.
PS: The Mitter is going to spend his money beating up Rudy so that maybe Fred will pick him as a VEEP. Fred can, Rudy can't.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
I don't think that Mitt would be a likely VP candidate for Thompson. Anyways, if all you are going to do is call IA and NH folks names, then you aren't worth talking to.
D
he is probably reaching the zenith of his polling numbers leading up to his announcement in a couple of weeks. Once he announces, it will be all down hill from there. His negatives will only increase as the other candidates zero in on his weaknesses. They probably have war rooms pouring over material right now. It's sad, because I like Fred Thompson, but he's about to learn the harsh realities of a national campaign, as opposed to a state-level one.
I like Fred, I think he is a good man. I think, though, that people who have a lot invested in him emotionally are not being rational. His past pro-choice statements are every bit as bad as Romney's and his McCain-Feingold-Thompson support is just as bad as McCain's. Why is he not getting the same scrutity that the others get? Will that scrutiny come once he announces? Is he getting a free pass because he is a charicature of all that is Republican? That may play well to the base, but I'm afraid he'd get smoked in a general election in which people are sick of Republicans...
D
once he announces. It will be interesting to see how his opposition to the illegals amnesty bill plays out if the Senate passes this bill virtually unchanged from its first attempt. Will he still rail against it while it sits in conference committee? This could be a first test of whether he has core priciples that aren't cast aside because a Senate vote didn't go his way. Ronald Reagan lost many votes but still retained his core principles.
abortion - Fred's single written statement on the issue was that he supported abortion up to the end of the first trimester. True, that isn't a ringing endorsement of a pro-life position, but his voting record after the statement is largely pro-life. Mitt came from the land of taxes, so he couldn't realistically take a pro-life stance. Hence we socons are willing to wait and see what he will do when he is no longer constrained by a far gone blue state. Rudy is the one who donated large sums of personal money to the abortionists, and he is the canididate we socons reject.
McCain-Feingold - It doesn't have Kennedy's name on it, and many people were for it at the time. Unlike McCain, Fred has since recognized that it was bad legislation and said he would oppose similar legislation in the future. It looked good on paper, and if you admit you were in error, we socons are willing to give you a few mistakes.
As for people being sick of Republicans, I don't think so. I think they are sick of fat cat, big spending aristocrats who know better what is good for the littl- I mean common people better than the common people themselves do. Fred projects just the right air of disdain for that attitude to channel voter frustration with a contempible congress into votes for change. And immigration is a big item on that contempt list.
with you. Not only that, I was a far-left La-La land gal for many years. They have more of a knee-jerk reaction to southerners than northerners do. Fred has me more excited than Rudy and Mitt combined.
"Aw-shucks, slow, stupid-sounding accent"? Not only do you sound bigoted but you're 100% wrong. There is nothing stupid-sounding about FT, in his speech or his writing, and plenty of northerners will vote for him given the chance.
Anyone so strongly against Fred so early is obviously operating from great fear.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
portray him as a stupid hick from Tobacco Road. Southerners are quite capable of winning non-Southern support, in both parties. (It all started with George Washington. Not that we can expect another one.)
Also, Fred has a national following because of his acting career, and he most definitely did NOT portray stupid hicks in his movies.
My dream scenario: Hillary debates Fred south of the Mason-Dixon line, and Hillary tries out her fake Southern accent!
Note- I am leaning Rudy, but like Fred.
If NH had gone the other way, the EV would have been 267-271 and we would be in 7th heaven - that is, the seventh year of the Gore admin.
with the major primaries moving up to earlier dates this is likely to be the last year anybody pays attention to NH or IA. And, as a former resident of NH, that is as it should be.
____
CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
The majority of Massachusetts voters don't even care one bit about the Republican Party at any political level! The majority of Massachusetts voters are "deep rooted" Democratic Party supporters, and they have been since the 1940's! Many of the past Democratic candidates for Massachusetts Governor came across over and over again as pathetic even to the majority of pro-Democratic voters, and this is why the Republicans did well in the Massachusetts Governors races from 1990 to 2002. Mitt Romney was an unpopular Massachusetts Governor during his last two years as Governor, and this is one of the reasons why he decided to run for the '08 Presidency instead of running for re-election for Massachusetts Governor in '06. The Republican who ran for Massachusetts Governor in '06 instead of Mitt, Lt. Governor Kerry Murphy Healey, was also very unliked by the majority of state voters, and now, the state has the very socialistic Democrat Deval Patrick as its Governor! I don't think that the writer of this piece knows anything about Massachusetts politics.
I re-read Ericks piece, then your post. Then re-read them both! I cannot for the life of me figure out how what YOU have posted relates to the article posted by Erick.
Are you on the wrong page?
With johnthebaptistmoore's posting history. Connecting comments with the OP is optional.
What flabbergasts me is that this comment did not mention the word "amnesty" once. I'm trying to figure out if maybe his keyboard malfunctioned or something.
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[F]or by the fundamental law of Nature, man being to be preserved as much as possible, when all cannot be preserved, the safety of the innocent is to be preferred...
-John Locke
MA politics for the Republican party are a crazy giant in and of themself. I only moved to SC a year or so ago after leaving MA and I'm sorry but Mitt, as much as I loved him, was a lame duck in his last two years. Everyone knew he was running for President and no one cared what he did. The fact of the matter is, Romney tried to govern the socialist enclave known as the Commiewealth of Massachusetts for 4 years and he did not make this conservative very happy.
With that being said, now that I am a South Carolina resident (and damn proud of it!), I am finally looking for a conservative leader a la Gov. Sanford and I believe that FDT is my man. I call my Dad every few days and inevitably we talk politics and even my father who lives in MA is as excited about Fred as I am. The fact of the matter is, for any luggage he has, he is as down to earth as any candidate is now. He speaks like he is an American, not as a politician, and this is why I will support him all the way. I do not want to be talked to like the USA is some rhetorical paradise: talk to me like it is now!
Fred Thompson has connected with so many disgruntled voters for a reason: he is the solution. I loved Mitt, I love Rudy, and hell, if it came down to him and HilDawg, I love McCain. HOWEVER!! FDT is the most Presidential candidate that we have seen so far and frankly, I am happy with my support of him.
Whether anyone likes him or hates him, we will all soon be able to see how Fred Thompson does when he's viciously attacked from every political angle and with any dirt that may be brought up against Fred Thompson. I'm also curious about how and what Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Duncan Hunter will all do against Fred Thompson on all of the issues discussed and if Fred Thompson would definitely be more than willing to have any of them possibly join a Fred Thompson administration should Fred end up getting the final GOP nod for the '08 Presidency and then actually win in '08.
over McCain, I am so sick of him and Kennedy and Kyl who by the way guys and gals said that Reid will be bringing the bill back tonight or tomorrow on Lou Dobbs tonight.
contemplating his weeds, possibly on anger management meds, far away from cameras and microphones. I am not kidding. He is O VER.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
McCain has the right strategy, he just has no chance of pulling it off and I agree that he will drop out with a bitter tirade directed mostly against Romney and any other person who opposes the amnesty bill.
Romney's strategy is perfect. Win Iowa, that momentum lets him win NH, that momentum lets him win NV and WY (not that they matter much). The only question is whether the overall momentum from those early victories will be enough for Romney to pass FDT in SC. If Romney passes FDT there the nomination is over and Romney wins the rest of the states. If Thompson wins by a significant margin then it will come down to FL and perhaps Super Tuesday. Even with a short primary season people still follow winners and Romney's momentum is bound to make an impact. Whether it makes enough of an impact is anyone's guess.
Rudy's strategy is to lose Iowa, lose NH, lose SC and then win Florida. That seems much less likely to be successful given the fact that it has never been done. Also, as was already mentioned Fred could very well be ahead in Florida before Rudy takes all of those losses.
I think it really comes down to Mitt and Fred. If Fred can exceed expectations in Iowa he probably wins the nomination. If he can't and Mitt wins the first 4 states (though only two matter) and I think that gives Mitt enough momentum to win in SC especially given the fact that he has the endorsement of DeMint and a great organization there as evidenced by the otherwise meaningless strawpoll wins he got.
Either way, Rudy is the one who needs to rethink his strategy. 35% won't be enough to win in Florida and late breakers don't go to losers.
dskinner summarized my thoughts perfectly. How can Rudy loose the first 4 states and have a chance? Remember, too, that Mitt will most likely end up taking Michigan (which I think is before Super Tuesday). What happens if Mitt wins IA, NH and MI while Fred wins SC and FL? Who has the momentum then? Where does Rudy fit in? I don't think his name recognition is enough to carry him if he looses that many states.
D
right now it is Rudy against 9 other guys (with different levels of strength)
tonight Kudlow tried to suck RG into arguing against FT's total wrong answer last week on tort reform.
Rudy refused to take the bait. he just stated his positon (where 98% of the Conservatives are).
the RG people have already figured out that he is going to let the other 9 hack each other up ... starting with others carving up FT ... just RG left MR stranded on the Iowa straw vote island fighting Ron Paul and company... a total lose/lose.
p.s. FT is not stupid enouogh to get sucked into the Iowa straw poll either. In fact, I would bet u a nickle FT passes entirely on Iowa caucus .. which would be smart for him.
if u r right and RG is dead, RG will still have a slug of delegates ... almost impossible to figure less than 500 and no one will have a majority for nomination ... ergo they all need him.
your assumption about RG having a strategy to lose Iowa, NH, SC, Wy and Nev is interesting.
while polls don't mean much today, (per RCP) RG leads SC, statistical dead heat in Iowa and second in NH, leads in Nev and I don't know about Wy.
but u may be right about FT and MR ... but everyone keps forgetting that the ONLY one up on media in those states is MR ... and big in Iowa and NH ... ergo no real surprise of his ranking there. however MR can't be underestimated due to his vast financial fortune and fund raising machine.
oh btw ... everyone needs to chk where the vast majority of Fl GOPer's r located. those ex NYer's only help him in the general when Hillary can't run up those normal huge majorities in Dem Broward and Palm Beach county (where all the ex NYer's r).. why H can't win Fl agains RG but will against anyone else.
If Rudy loses Florida I doubt he will win any states other than NY and NJ. He could even lose those states if he were to withdraw and concede defeat, which would be the good thing for the party. No sense in everyone spending a ton of money on advertising if the race is already decided after Florida.
I think everyone that is being fair realizes that FDT is the new leader in SC. As far as NV, all of those polls are old and the most recent one showed Rudy in 3rd. Romney has the endorsement of the most popular and powerful politician in the state in former Governor Guinn. Since it is a caucus state organization matters and Romeny's is the best by virtue of tapping into Guinn's. Also caucus's favor more conservative candidates which is a win for Romney and there is a significant Mormon population in NV, and Romney will be coming off of early wins. I think Romney wins NV fairly easily, not that it matters much. WY is largely being ignored by everyone but Romney. There also is a significant Mormon population there as well.
I think the fact that Romney has done way more events in IA and NH is much more significant to voters who are used to being courted in person. Also Romney gets a bunch of free media on nightly newscasts and in the local papers by being in those states.
I don't see how you can advocate for all the candidates to withdraw from IA and then act like Mitt still might lose. I agree that Mitt could lose Iowa and NH, however I think the only way that happens is if Mitt screws up. I don't think any of the other candidates would be able to come in and take one of those states from him.
As far as Rudy staying above the fray, I think that will end fairly soon when FDT starts his campaign. It would be foolish for Thompson to validate Romney by campaigning against him. His best hope is to minimalize Romney and focus up on Rudy. Also there a hosts of social conservatives ready to make sure that Rudy doesn't win. I would be suprised if attack ads aren't already being prepared against Rudy.
I just spent the weekend traveling around in Iowa following Romney around. I can tell you this, the Iowa GOP will not be supporting the candidates who have passed on what is there single largest fundraiser.
Romney is popular in Iowa because he is there all the time, meeting in every town, in small groups and letting people ask them what they want- and answering their questions directly. He is extremely accessible.
www.mymanmitt.com
www.race42008.com
Member of Romney for President Faith and Values Steering Committee- an unpaid advisoral position, that does not require an endorsement.
polls mean little today and events overtake everyone .. with that said
1. FT is not in the race and has received no scrutiny .. that ends shortly ... big time
2. MR is the only one spending big bucks in Iowa and NH .. why is he up there and has little numbers nationally
3. if u look at the Cook poll this morning, (with their assumption that JM is out and Newt does not run), RG gets most of their support and goes to an 18 point lead on Thompson and 23 point on MR
4. Regardless of polls, MR is not going away (too much bucks and organization). FT is far more fragile in both. if FT slips, he could go in fast free-fall
Thompson has been in Congress so he knows how the processes work. You don't p*ss off the local party operatives by p*ss*** on their big fund raiser. Your willingness to support their straw poll indicates how willing you are going to be to work with them on their concerns after you are elected. P*ss*** people off seems to be second nature to McCain, and I can see where it would seem like good advice to a NE liberal running in a Republican primary, but the rest of the candidates understand it. So count on Fred to jump in with both feet and work with the local party reps.
IA and NH, so long as the local culture is not greatly at odds with the rest of the nation, are useful microcosms in which to study candidates. They are small enough so candidates can reasonably be expected to talk to folks. So folks can see how the candidates will act once they are ensconsed inside the beltway cacoon. And most folks will know that how the candidates act in IA and NH is the best a person will do once ensconsed in that cacoon; actual results may be significantly degraded.
What happens if FDT wins SC, MR wins IA and NH and RG wins FL?! It will become a free-for-all on Super Tuesday! Mitt has the most money and organization of the three. Rudy has the star power across the country. Fred has the south locked up, but needs to put together a formidable organization to compete nationwide. Is it too late for him to put together a machine to compete with MR?
D
I think this post is very much wishful thinking on the part of Fred Heads. While I think McCain is toast, Romney is still leading in IA and NH, and Rudy is leading nationally. There are still many questions out there about FT and although he has run a strong "non-campaign" so far it remains to be seen what happens when he has to defend his no vote on impeachment of Clinton and his yes vote on campaign finance reform. As well as acount for his lack of experience as an a manager, Romney has run a top fortune 500 company, an olympics and a State. While Rudy has run America's largest city as well as company.
www.mymanmitt.com
www.race42008.com
Member of Romney for President Faith and Values Steering Committee
There is a flaw to your logic Erick.
To paraphrase an article I read last week, Fred Thompson is like Coors Beer before it was sold everywhere in the country. Before Coors was sold everywhere, it was very popular and in demand. It was touted as the best beer ever. Once it hit the market wide spread, everyone realized that it was just like everything else -- just another beer.
Similarly, I'm willing to gander that Fred Thompson is the same as Coors Beer. Most people know nothing about his ideology, policy proposals, or anything else substantive.
These polls are just flash in the pans similar to Thompsons's popularity.
being whistled by supporters of the also rans as they tiptoe past the Fred Thompson Memorial Park, near future home of the RudyJohnMitt et al, campaigns.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
while polls (except favorable / unfavorable) may not mean much at this point, your information is not correct on FT and RG being "neck and neck in Florida".
According to RCL averages RG leads FT by 16.3% as of June 18 in Florida.
I do agree that JM will drop out but MR is far greater threat to RG than FT. Let's wait 60 days and remember that RG (prior to all the media and competitor hits) was 20%+ ahead.
Polls mean nothing today .. particularly for FT.
this all has a lot of twists and turns to go