McCain after New Hampshire
i'm jumping the gun, but after mccain wins today, he needs to refine his message
By Charles Bird Posted in 2008 — Comments (35) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Going by the latest RCP average, John McCain will win New Hampshire by 3 or 4, and Pollster.com shows a similar result. Unlike Obama, I don't believe New Hampshire will give McCain much in the way of momentum. All you have to do is go back to 2000.
More below the fold...
South Carolina is Huckabee country, although I think the race will tighten there. In Michigan, McCain is in third behind Romney and Huckabee. I'm pretty sure that Huckabee will not sustain his numbers. Why? Because too many of his positions are not conservative, and his foreign policy experience trails the pack, and these weaknesses should catch up to him. I'm not sure if Romney can sustain his numbers, but he has money and strong organizations in both states, so he will be formidable. The one thing I do know is that polls change. All you have to do is look at Hillary's fall from coronation.
This leaves room for McCain to make advances in South Carolina and Michigan. What should McCain do? Well, he should keep on keeping on. He should also increase his exposure to conservatives by going on a talk radio blitz, as I wrote here. But before keeping on and blitzing, he needs to better able answer the objections that many in the conservative base have, and will have. After New Hampshire, the attention and scrutiny will again be on McCain, and he needs to avoid repeating history by making stronger showings in those two states.
What are the objections I'm talking about? First, he needs to answer the comments he made on Tim Russert last Sunday. Russert quoted McCain's 2003 comments from the Tucson Citizen: "I think we can set up a program where amnesty is extended to a certain number of people who are eligible." He elided on Russert, but he needs to answer them directly. I don't know how he would respond, except to say that he made a mistake and to emphasize the point that he got the message last summer and pledge that he would enforce the borders first. Conservatives need to hear these assurances, and be assured that he will live up to his end of the bargain. There's nothing wrong with admitting that you made a mistake and that you've learned from the experience.
McCain may think he's already emphasizing his points on immigration, but it still needs to be done, and done more forcefully. A little meat on the immigration bones of his website wouldn't hurt either. Finally, he needs to be insistent on the point that the failed immigration bill was not amnesty, and because the bill didn't pass, we are currently in a state of de facto amnesty. What's more, if a Democrat gets elected, we won't have an honest shot at immigration reform until 2013 or 2017. Because McCain polls better against Obama and Hillary than the other GOP candidates, electing McCain would actually improve our chances of securing the borders and reforming the current immigration system.
McCain needs to continue to talk about why he voted against the Bush tax cuts but is in favor of making them permanent. If he doesn't address it, his opponents will.
McCain needs to better explain his rationale for joining the Gang of 14. We don't hear so much about Democrats obstructing Bush's nominees since the Gang of 14 was created because the group neutered their ability to do so, and the gang smoothed the way for Roberts and Alito. McCain needs to say that, and say it frequently.
On other controversial matters such as torture, I think his explanations hold water, and his appeals that we adhere to higher standards are sound.
In between answering the objections, McCain should also continue to address that he was the one who got it right on Iraq and the War Against Militant Islamism, and that he has a long history of being in favor of fiscal restraint and limited government.
There is going to be a group of conservatives who are in the "no way, no how" category. There's not much to be done with them because their minds are made up. But because of the topsy turvy way the race has gone, there may just be enough voters who will listen and give the respective candidates second and third looks. McCain may just have a shot at them.
[Full disclosure: I earlier endorsed McCain for president.]
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McCain after New Hampshire 35 Comments (0 topical, 35 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
"After McCain wins today..."
We shall see. :-)
start putting together your conspiracy theories now because you aren't going to like the results. McCain has this thing sewn up.
"We all share the same goals: clean air and water...safe transportation systems, to name a few of the good things that can come from regulation. " -Fred D. Thompson
...RainbowRepublican.
Couldn't resist trying to take another swing at Mark Kilmer, huh? Well, to err is human, to forgive not in my job description.
Bye.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
McCain against the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003.
McCain for McCain-Feingold and limiting free speech.
McCain for human embryo stem cell research.
McCain thinks pharmaceutical companies are bad guys - voted for Sarbanes-Oxley that is hurting small business.
McCain is against repealing the death tax.
McCain supports forced government regulation of greenhouse gas emissions.
McCain voted against drilling in Anwar.
McCain would raise social security taxes.
McCain would allow invaders [illegal immigrants] to stay indefinitely after [haha] paying a fine, BUT don't you dare call it amnesty!
McCain would rather thousands [millions with a nuke] of Americans die than pour water up a terrorists nose for thirty seconds - something all SEALS go through as part of their training.
McCain thinks being chummy and cooperating with Ted Kennedy is cool.
Is McCain the best we can do?
...McCain is the only republican candidate who takes a brave stance against torture, pollution, tax cuts that aren’t linked with spending cuts and risks his political career to pursue a practical, bi-partisan approach to immigration reform.
Wish there were more like him ;)
Yes, McCain would be the strongest presidential candidate of the Republicans. Unlike you, I do not trash the Republicans with whom I disagree. Rudy Guiliani would be a strong president. Fred Thompson would be a strong president. I like Huckabee, but I am a little concerned about his lack of experience, but would rather choose him over a Dem. I dislike everything about Romney, but acknowledge he could be a good president.
McCain would be the strongest president because of his experience and determination. Secondly, he has the best appeal to moderate independents according to all polls (and most commentators), which is where this election will be won and lost.
Yes. McCain is the best choice.
MOlsen6
Proud supporter of McCain '00 and McCain '08
On taxes, I think I already explained McCain's position.
On ANWR, he is opposed to drilling but believes it should be a matter left to the states (cite).
On embryonic stem cell research, McCain's position is "for", but with significant qualifiers. More on his views on the subject here.
McCain would rather thousands [millions with a nuke] of Americans die than pour water up a terrorists nose for thirty seconds - something all SEALS go through as part of their training.
That is a mischaracterization, gandolph. McCain is against torture except for those ticking time-bomb situations where we know the terrorist has valuable intelligence on an imminent strike to mass-murder people.
McCain thinks being chummy and cooperating with Ted Kennedy is cool.
That is Category III mindreading offense. McCain does have a rappor with Kennedy and other Democrats, but I'm pretty sure he'll tell you that having such relationships with Democrats is a political necessity, especially in the Senate country club.
McCain thinks pharmaceutical companies are bad guys...
Another Karnak Award. Do you have a link?
McCain would allow invaders [illegal immigrants]...
After reading "invaders", I'm done with you. You're one of the ones who's mind is already made up, and any further debate with you would be a dry hump.
I won't quibble with the details of the plan - it certainly seems like a reasonable strategy for McCain. But I think this all boils down to a very interesting chess game in the run-up to Feb 5.
Does McCain really have the resources (cashola) to compete strongly in both MI and SC? And if he has to chose one, isn't MI (open primary, top 3 are close) a better choice for him, especially if Rudy melts-down further (a la NH).
Do you think he actually tries to get on Limbaugh's show? And does Limbaugh have him on? Don't know about you but I'll be taping that one if it happens.
Does Romney continue to "press" in SC setting himself up for another Iowa (I don't think he could move his numbers 5-points around where he is now if he either did nothing or flooded the state from now until the 19th) or does he pull-back a bit and try to force someone else to actually engage someone else in this race?
And how many more states can Rudy collapse in before it starts to impact his 2/5-or-bust strategy?
And do you agree with me that at least the "Big-5" plus RP are in this until at least 2/5?
Interesting times.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
From Politico:
In Michigan, a state where McCain has already delivered two speeches on the economy, he plans to discuss ways to fix the auto capital’s ailing fortunes.
“We’re going to have a lot of emphasis on the economic issues,” McCain said, chatting with a small group of reporters on his campaign bus about what lies ahead for the shortened primary campaign in Michigan. “We’re going to have to talk about jobs, we’re going to have to talk about care for displaced workers, we’re going to have talk about competition.”
Michigan’s primary is one week from Tuesday.
In South Carolina, where Republicans vote Jan. 19, McCain said the theme would likely shift to national security matters.
“There’s going to be a lot more concern there about veterans, about the war, about the National Guard,” McCain predicted, noting the state’s high number of retired and active-duty personnel.
I think it's pretty good. It also gets him off of talking about Iraq for the week after NH. That's probably a good break and shows his knowledge of other issues. It then allows him to come back to his military knowledge for SC.
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It seems like Michigan is a bad place for McCain to have a final stand if he does not beat Romney solidly enough to get a big bump. Michigan is Romney's home turf, because of who his father was. I know a lot of blue collar Democrats who speak warmly of the Romneys when their name is mentioned, and I think Romney is best positioned to pull it off there. Not to mentioned another good Romney smacking of Huck on Thursday in the SC debates could be bad for Huck in Michigan and SC. Expect a Huck pile on on Thursday, IMO.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
Not b/c Romney or McCain want it to be. But for Romney he will have had 3 states he led in at one point, 3 states he outspent his opponents in, and two states that he has some attachment to (NH is in Boston media market, and MI is home). If he loses all 3, he's done, period.
For McCain, it's more a function of needing momentum. A NH win gets him in through 2/5. But a MI loss sets up a middle-of-the-pack SC finish (3rd, 4th) and probably a similar FL finish (2nd, 3rd). He goes into 2/5 with a chance to win a couple states and be 2nd/3rd a lot of places. Maybe he gets enough delegates to make it a two-man race with someone. But it's unlikely.
Whereas a NH/MI combo for either gives them great MO into SC where that winner will likely be 2nd. Ditto FL. Thus making the race a Huck-Rudy-NH/MI winner race by FL and 2/5.
I also think the NH winner will win MI. So today is really big for McCain and Romney.
Finally, note that I expect both to stay through 2/5 regardless.
*And please even in typos do not curse on our family site.
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I've been here for over 2 years and never done that. Please forgive me I didn't hit the preview button and I apologize.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
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The Democrats don't have a primary in MI, so independents only have one place to go, and it's more likely they'll pull the lever for McCain than Romney, given McCain's general appeal to independents.
As my once high hopes for Fred continue to diminish I am increasingly looking to McCain's campaign to step up.
absentee
...who I couldn't support with anything except a November vote against the Dem's socialist-du-jour. John McCain is not on that list.
Far and away, my two biggest issues are national security and fiscal responsibility. My disagreement with McCain on many other lesser issues pales in comparison to my admiration for his strong record on the two issues I care most about.
If Rudy and Fred continue to flounder, McCain would move up on my list of candidates who I would not only vote for, but would support with time and $$$.
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"We want great men who, when fortune frowns, will not be discouraged." - Colonel Henry Knox
McCain is close to being on my list but I could hold my nose and vote for him. I am certainly not convinced he is the strongest candidate come November.
I don't believe I could vote for Huckabee however - the differences between him and the Dem's are minimal enough in my opinion that I believe he would likely do more damage than good for the Republican party.
McCain is my third choice, behind Romney and Fred, so I won't be terribly opposed to seeing him win. I doubt however that Romney will be out by the time my state votes so thats where my vote will go. The best scenerio I see if your way happens is then Romney fighting hard, causing a convention, and becoming VP. But Huckabee has the inside track on that so I guess I just have to hope for a Romney win in NH.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
...given his stance on global warming. Also, he opposes drilling in ANWR, and that is almost a deal breaker with me.
Fred or Mitt. I'll vote for McCain in the general, but I hope I don't have to.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Couple things
1) MI is an open primary - that means anyone can vote for McCain
2) Unlike NH, McCain won't have to compete with Obama for votes in MI
3) No matter how Romney is planning on spinning a second place finish he has problems heading into MI with a NH loss.
4) If McCain wins NH, Huck will also have a problem in MI and SC. MI for the same reason as Romney. A McCain win in MI will make SC a battle for Huck. Romney's operatives will not be able to work their magic in SC and SC will be strong for McCain because of the military.
5) Finally and as much as it pains for me to write this. Romney won't be finished with a loss in MI and NH and will march onto Feb 5th. While I don't think he will spend money at his same rate, he has enough to compete with everyone even on Feb 5th and hope for the best.
Go McCain.
IMWITHMCCAIN
that they are out of Democratic ballots in some places.
And this is the man who appears to be the most able to beat Obama in '08. May God help us all.
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What is wrong with taking pollution and environmental destruction seriously? Why is concern over global warming considered so anti-republican?
not because of what they say they want to do, end pollution, but because of what they actually want to do, which is create a socialized state were the government regulates EVERYTHING, and the people lose their freedom. I like the way Romney and others are looking at this, not as a "stop global warming" campaign but instead as a "become energy self-sufficient" campaign. In this scenario America invests in better technology, creating more jobs and a competetive market to sell the technology. If you hear them preaching the stop Global Warming chant, run the other way cause thats code for "I'm a big government socialist" or close enough anyway.
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
He takes a page from Obama. He talks about global warming and environmentalism (which speaks to non-Rs) but his solutions are pretty conservative.
He's a big advocate of nuclear power and energy independence. Now, I bet with a D congress he'd compromise and include some CAFE standard increases to get some new nuclear plants, but his means to "fight" global warming are not the same as the left.
In this case, he is co-opting an issue that generally helps Ds and giving conservative solutions.
It's like how some smart Rs have taken education (traditionally a D stronghold) and talked about real reform through school choice. Just talking about education is not longer a negative for an R as long as he doesn't regurgitate NEA arguments (cue Huckabee).
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How come he's against drilling in ANWR? How are we going to become energy-independent without using the energy we already have? Energy independence isn't some magic formula, after all.
This is the problem (well, one of the problems) I have with McCain. Every major issue, there seems to be at least one point where he decides on his own to ditch the conservative point of view and adopt liberal talking points, whether it's drilling in ANWR, or waterboarding, or tax cuts-- except where he's entirely off the reservation, like immigration (at least until the voter-applied shock collar got him to pull back on that one).
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
I guess the War on Terror, the War in Iraq, abortion, same-sex marriage, pork-barrel spending, Medicare Part D excessive spending, and supporting the President aren't major issues to you.
That's probably where we differ.
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...the planet's natural cycles of warming and cooling. The problem with these libs is they're convinced that it's OUR FAULT and we must DO SOMETHING to STOP it.
Of course, there's plenty of evidence that debunks the AGW myth but they won't listen to any of it. The reason is quite simple - because it's NOT about science, it's about POLITICS. Meanwhile, McCain legitimizes the arguement instead of calling it what it is - a bunch of Barbara Streisand.
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while simultaneously destroying our economy is not only anti-Republican, it's anti-American...and patently stupid.
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since the 19th of dec, where mccain got 10%.
on the 7th of dec he was leading.
McCain has had a lot of movement since then, not only in NH but in Iowa he moved up, and nationally. I'm not saying he's a lock, but when he beats Romney in NH, he has a good shot at Michigan.