McCain Falls To Single Digits
The Falling Campaign
By California Yankee Posted in 2008 — Comments (30) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
A new Mason-Dixon poll of likely Republican Nevada caucus goers finds Arizona Senator John McCain in single digits:
Fred Thompson, 25 percent
Mitt Romney, 20 percent
Rudy Giuliani, 17 percent
John McCain, 8 percent
The survey was conducted Wednesday through Friday and has a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.
McCain's fall isn't limited to Nevada. McCain is running third in Iowa, behind Romney and Giuliani. In New Hampshire, Romney leads McCain and Giuliani who are tied nearly 10 points behind Romney.
Read on.
McCain, the former front-runner has dropped more than 11 percentage points in national polls since early February. According to Real Clear Politics, McCain now receives the support of 15 percent of Republicans, down from 26.4 percent 20 weeks ago.
The Examiner's Bill Sammon writes that McCain could fall even further this week as the Senate resumes debate on so-called immigration reform.
Things will get even worse for McCain when the latest fundraising period, covering April through June, ends and the new finance reports reveal whether McCain is able to raise enough money to stay in the race.
The Associated Press reports McCain's stance in support of the Senate's immigration deal has hurt his fundraising.
McCain reorganized his money operation after he finished in third-place finish in the January-March period. The Senate began the immigration debate Just as McCain was stepping up his fund raising effort. In a move that reeks of desperation, McCain has packed his schedule with an average of more than one fundraiser a day this month in hopes of approaching the $13.6 million he raised in the first quarter.
McCain's presidential campaign looks to be on life support now, but it's a long time until any votes are counted.
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McCain Falls To Single Digits 30 Comments (0 topical, 30 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
Yep, he's done.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
there is nothing pleasurable with the political demise of an American hero - John McCain. Ok to believe he is wrong on immigration, Iraq and McCain Feingold but those are items he took a principled stand on ... and many of us disagree on some or all.
Howwever, doubt many of us would have his courage .. in war ... or in peace.
Keep asking yourself to name the three most important accomplishments of FT's career in acting, lobbying, law and Congress.
Yes, John McCain is an American hero. It was never in question and has never had a single thing to do with his feud with the conservative movement going on for the last ten years or so.
And it's not about "taking pleasure" -- rather, it's about asserting the primacy of our ideas as the foundation of the Republican Party.
He's been out to pasture on more than just these issues. He's opposed several tax cuts (who was it who said that the Republican Party exists to keep taxes low?). He put through the tobacco "settlement". He's as good a friend as the Church of Global Warming has in Congress.
Campaign Finance Reform and Immigration are just the latest salvos.
So, I ask, why shouldn't people who oppose him on these measures - to name a few - revel in his political demise? Doesn't that mean that our ideas are coming out on top of his, at least so far as intra-party struggles are concerned?
What next, should conservatives lament the demise of the Rockefeller Republican movement at the hands of the Reagan Republican ascendancy?
I think you have to distinguish between a movement borne of personality and politics, and one borne of intellectual purpose. It's the difference between a partisan and an ideologue.
For some reason, the word "ideologue" has taken on a negative connotation in our culture. It shouldn't. Our founders were ideologues, thankfully so. And movements are nothing if they aren't at least somewhat faithful to their core principles.
McCain's demise, in some ways, represents the victory of conservatism over pragmatism....although I fear it may ultimately prove Pyrrhic.
There's a big difference between standing up to the enemy by doing your duty as a member of the US military and being willing to stand up to Congress. McCain, to his credit, did the former. He has never done the latter. His entire career in the Congress has been one of a patsy for Congressional interests.
You rightly not that he is wrong on immigration, Iraq and CFR. You might also want to consider tossing in torture and judicial nominations. ALL of his "principled" stands, he is utterly out to lunch on, and you will find him standing side-by-side with the liberal lions of the Senate.
I would vote for my dead white cat before I'd vote for John McCain. And that's a literal statement. Should McCain be the Republican nominee, I will likely write in Linus' name because under no circumstance would I vote for McCain.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
People are finally catching on, but I'd say he's been politically DoA since the 2000 campaign, when he really started doing a number on the base. And he just never let up after that.
I don't care if he's taking a principled stand on an issue if he's completely wrong about it. Dennis Kusinich takes principled stands. So what? So if he were running for the Republican nomination I should mourn his loss?
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Say what you will about things like McCain-Feingold, the Gang of 14, the Detainee Treatment Act, and the Military Commissions Act of 2006....they're not the handiwork of a political corpse.
No, McCain's been a veritable power player in the US Senate since the 2000 election -- arguably, in fact, the most powerful of the lot.
Now, you might say that his presidential hopes ended in 2000. But, even then, I'm not sure I'd agree. After all, by all accounts he could've been John Kerry's runningmate in 2004 had he wanted to....and may well have put that ticket over the top.
The thing about McCain is that he chose to forsake the conservative movement years ago -- and put all of his eggs in other baskets. He figured that he could do the same in reverse this time -- forsake those Bush critics he came to depend on and woo back the conservatives he alienated some years back.
What he found instead is that he burned every bridge he ever had, to the extent he even had them. And he's now a man without a constituency.
Not a single one of those issues is - or should have been - an issue requiring legislation.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Political deadness, in this context, is being used as a measure of his presidential viability. That's been dead since 2000. Obviously he is still a Senator. He has made himself more powerful than your average already powerful Senator by being a "maverick" deal maker. None of that is going to get him the nomination.
Now, you might say that his presidential hopes ended in 2000. But, even then, I'm not sure I'd agree. After all, by all accounts he could've been John Kerry's runningmate in 2004 had he wanted to....and may well have put that ticket over the top.
And if he had been foolish enough to do that, the Democrats would've put him forward as their candidate in 2012? Not a chance. McCain may be extremely annoying, but he is not a Democrat. The Democrats aren't going to run a Republican as their presidential nominee. Ever. So he had no shot in 2004, either. I'm not even convinced that ticket could have won. McCain being on board the ticket in any capacity would've had been a severely negative consequences among base Democrats.
The thing about McCain is that he chose to forsake the conservative movement years ago -- and put all of his eggs in other baskets. He figured that he could do the same in reverse this time -- forsake those Bush critics he came to depend on and woo back the conservatives he alienated some years back.
He couldn't win without the conservatives. He had no choice but to reverse strategy for 2008. Where he failed is in not realizing he couldn't undo the damage. If he had stayed with his 2000 strategy he'd be just as dead. There's no course of action that would've got him to the White House.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
We should have all voted for Kerry in '04. Sorry, heroism in a time of war does not automatically translate into political aptitude. John is a war hero and great American. That acts as sole qualification for no elected office.
Where you see principled, I see arrogant and worse, wrong. Where you see courage (post war), I see stubborn. McCain is a political hack and based on the Keating 5 investigation, a corrupt hack at that.
I have yet to hear anyone reconcile this supposed strong, principled stand for national security issues with his dogged effort to push this amnesty bill which may be the greatest threat to our national security in my lifetime.
No need to bash on Thompson. He hasn't hurt McCain. McCain is the architect of his own downfall.
If by virtue of some deal with the Devil, McCain does end up as the nominee, I will not vote for him. I will give no money, give no time, no effort at all. I'm on the sidelines.
I don't know how many nails are in his political coffin right now. But it's enough that it'll never be opened again. That South Carolina poll that came out last week was, for me, indication enough that he's finished.
I don't even consider him to be one of the "Big Three-cum-Big Four-cum-Big Three again" group. He was in it, then it expanded with Thompson's entry, and now it's contracted again.
The GOP race is now between Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney. And I think it has been for a while.
I think McCain, with immigration, was seeing just how many straws he could put on the camel's back. He has his answer.
That Romney's strength in New Hampshire and Iowa is due mostly to the fact that he's advertised on TV up there, and no one else has.
McCain is down--no one can argue that--but he's not out. Politics is far too volitile to say this far out that someone is finished. It remains to be seen if Thompson can maintain his current strength when put under a microscope or on stage with others on a debate. It remains to be seen if the chinks in Giuliani's armor will have a minor or major effect on his numbers. And once Romney isn't the only player on TV in the early states, his numbers may also fall. In addition, if Mike Huckabee posts a strong 2nd Quarter, his may rise up to the top tier. In short, there are a number of things that may happen.
I understand the urge to discuss the horserace. However, trying this far out to say whether someone's campaign is finished or not is just about the worst speculation to engage in.
"McCain is running third in Iowa, behind Romney and Giuliani."
Fred Thompson trailed Romney in Iowa 31%-15% on 6/4. A subsequent poll, on 6/20 I believe, showed Romney's lead over Thompson there had dropped by 50%, 25%-17%.
The Romneyites have assumed that winning IOWA was a foregone conclusion since no other candidates have spent any money or much time there. That assumption is evaporating before their very eyes and the distinct possiblity exists that Fred may have pulled even with or charged ahead of Romney(as he's already done in NEVADA) in IOWA by the time he announces, all without spending a dime or setting foot in the state.
can't prove this exact number but ....
75% of the people who say they are voting for a candidate like FT have no real idea of what they are saying.
this is a Pavolian response to his name being in the media or seeing him reading dialogue as Arthur Blake.
how many of them even have a concept as to his background (actor, lawyer, lobbyist - most of his career and in Congress)?
RR ran the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world (California) for 8 years. tell me precisely what FT has ever done in any of his four careers that makes him qualified for President?
give me three specific accomplishments in any of his four past jobs?
the cartoon in Politico on FT today is very appropriate.
I believe McCain has the highest unfavorables of the field... so even if you want to use that measure, McCain is in pretty bad shape.
As far as RR goes... governors do not run their state's economy any more than the President runs the US economy. Sure, a term or two as governor is great executive experience, but lets not overstate the importance of it. Experience isn't everything.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Carter, James Earl.
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The CIA has better politicians than it has spies - Fred Thompson
Bush 43.
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The CIA has better politicians than it has spies - Fred Thompson
Arthur BRANCH, and actually, do we know he hasn't adlibbed any of that. Hollywood writers aren't known for being good at taking potshots at Sandra Day O'Connor, heh.
Run like Reagan!
Adios senator! Can't say that I'll be missing you.
Hah.
Things are looking bad, but I'm not counting McCain out just yet. He's a fighter. It's too far away and there's so much that can happen. I still think the conservative vote could be split by Romney and Thompson and McCain emerges as the main opponent to Rudy. If it were to become a two man race I think McCain could win.
I think McCain's personal story is important. People vote based on character as much as on particular issues. Bush's conversion from unfocused, heavy drinking frat boy to Christian political leader certainly helped him. Even though Kerry lost I think that his military experience made it closer than it would have been (and it would have been even closer if he hadn't protested Vietnam afterwards). Bill Clinton's boy from Hope was effective. I think if you were to just look at the personal story of McCain as opposed to Obama, Edwards, or Hillary there simply is no comparison.
I also think McCain is the GOP candidate most likely to win the general election.
I think you're right. Bush's conversion helped him, Kerry's inability to find character in the 30 years after Vietnam killed him.
In McCain's case, this issue will hurt him. He's gone from an honorable POW and a Naval Officer to be respected to a second rate, self serving politician and media whore who's willing to sell his soul for the attention.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
The only reason for holding positions on the issues which mbecker disagrees with, is to get media attention.
On what basis are you claiming McCain is a "second rate" politician? He's probably been the most effective person in the Senate in the last five or six years. He basically single handedly forced the president to switch positions on McCain-Feingold and torture, and has been the most vocal advocate for the surge and defender of the war. Obviously he's been effective in some ways that conservatives don't like, but he's definitely a leader and an effective one at that.
I'll agree that McCain likes attention, but he is a politician after all. I hope all the bad press he's been getting recently will make him a better man.
I don't think McCain's character will hurt him in the general. I think most people won't see it the same way as you and will see his time in the Senate as a continuation of his service to his country and will find the fact that he's vocally disagreed with the administration at various points as "independence" and see it in a positive light rather than media whoredom.
makes him a second rate politician. Right up there with Teddy the Hutt and Snarlin Arlen and Chuckie.
What "most people" will see isn't at issue. Enough of the base hold an opinion of McCain that's close to mine. We'll stay home. McCain will have a greater "No way in hell" factor than any other candidate including Rudy.
It's an academic issue as far as the general election is concerned, he'll either run out of money or self-immolate like he did in 2K. He's absolutely, totally unqualified for the office.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
Having a bad temper and liking media attention makes him totally unqualified for the office, right.
When I saw Rudy give that CNN interview where he said that abortion, since it's a constitutional right, had to be federally funded I decided that he was totally unqualified for the office. In fact, in seems like he's unqualified to be a lawyer if he thinks that because something's a constitutional right it means the government needs to fund it.
I'm sure you're closer to the Republican base than I am, and based on early polling the base clearly feels more antipathy towards McCain than towards Rudy. In the general, I'm sure there are many conservatives like you who won't vote for McCain, but I can't see a third party conservative alternative emerging, whereas I could see a pro-life, pro-traditional marriage candidate run against Rudy.
In the end it probably won't matter who'll do better in the general because Thompson will probably win the nomination. I'm just not writing McCain off quite yet.
Except for Ron Paul. Anybody who's still in the race could conceivably win the nomination, some are just much longer shots than others. I too expect that Fred will most likely be the candidate, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Rudy comes out on top.
Other than Bloomberg/Hagel there won't be a third party candidate.
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CongressCritter™: Never have so few felt like they were owed so much by so many for so little.
as it means you are not obsessed with someone you consider a dead horse. I would say that there is a good case to made for McCain being fourth place right now, but this election may be quite different than previous elections so we don't know for sure what will happen.
Fundraising for both has gone down the toilet. Edwards apparently hasn't raised any money since the bump he allegedly got from the Coulter faggot remark, and the GOP base is bailing on McCain over immigration if nothing else. Edwards' only hope is eking out a win in Iowa, where he's tossing all his marbles it appears.