Redstate

....that McCain is receiving very tepid support from conservative Republicans, which to me seems like a good thing, if he is beating Obama without the base thus far. The base will come around for him.

“.....women and minorities hardest hit”

There is a Q asked only to those who are Rs who are unhappy with McCain... they break about a third for McCain, a third for a D, and a third don't know.

The problem is the major piece of information we need is how many are unhappy with McCain. The sample seemed to be 77 but I don't know how many total Rs were polled. If 10% are unhappy and a third say they will vote D, that's 3% of Rs. Rs are 30% of the country. That would make a .9% swing.

OTOH, if it was 30% then that translates to a 2.7% swing in overall voters.

If you're referring to a different Q, let me know. It's an important phenomenon and I'd love to know more.

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Obama is so far left and the country is not....he has worked for "change" reaching across the aisle...to the consternation of people like me....Obama can't beat him on that...the "change" Obama is talking about is change the majority of the country does not...only Soro's and friends want.

Freedom of Religion not Freedom from Religion

McCain trails Obama 40% to 42%.
He also trailed Clinton 42% to 44%

McCain needs to make a serious play for Pennsylvania.

I think adding Rudy to the ticket could really help him in PA, especially in the Eastern part of the state. Something to think about.

have you been over to powerline.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives2/2008/02/019891.php

I put a link. Listen to where he wants to make cuts in the budget. This man may be a good man, but he is just wrong. He believes we are the problem in the world.

Moreover, there is nothing new here; there is no change here. This man is Jimmy Carter and George McGovern on steroids.

Pam

Last 5 days in the tracking poll:

2/26: McCain 47 - Obama 43
2/25: McCain 47 - Obama 43
2/24: McCain 46 - Obama 44
2/23: McCain 46 - Obama 43
2/22: McCain 44 - Obama 44

Before that, Obama had led McCain. They attribute it to a bump from the backlash over the NY Times story. I'm not so sure. Polls have been showing a downtick in support for Obama and a more widely held belief that Obama is a liberal.

The two polls that show McCain with a slight lead are far outnumbered by polls that hsow Obama with a larger lead. It it too early for polls too tell you much but when looking at the entire picture there is no question this is a real battle for McCain.

His polling is significantly better agianst Clinton...

Something I'm not seeing this year are the massive numbers of local issues, ballot measures, and other devices used to get voters out to the boxes in the past. On either side.

Given the energized Democratic base right now, the GOP needs something to get out the voters, especially in light of its past lukewarm stance on McCain. Folks can answer telephone polls all they want -- but will they be bothered to go vote for someone that has rubbed them wrong so many times before?

This election has more consequences than just the Presidency, it's the Supreme Court, the Senate, and the state legislatures. The Democratic Party is still seething about the Texas redistricting that padded the Republican majority a few years ago, and they're rubbing their hands with delight at the prospect of having their own shot at it. With so many states very close to flipping one way or another in their legislatures, their control is going to be a huge factor for the 2012 House election.

These poll results are encouraging though we can't take them too seriously so early. McCain is benefiting from the fact that he's looking like an experienced statesman next to the much younger and less experienced Obama. It also helps that McCain has been able to attack Obama from the right while Clinton was attacking from the left.

If McCain can make a series of contrasts on policy issues that expose Obama's naive, socialist thinking while remaining calmly polite - he may win this. Clinton's disastrous performances recently show that hitting Obama with personal nastiness or blunt attacks not only doesn't work - it makes the attacker look bad. Obama was very smooth and almost slippery in that debate last night. Beating him will require an opponent to be very courteous while skillfully dissecting his positions or lack of substance. This campaign has to be about issues and policies rather than purely personalities. McCain also has to project a pleasant enough personality that voters are willing to consider him against the super charming Obama.

I like McCain, but he can come across a bit mean and snarky in debates. That will sink him against Obama. McCain needs to stick with the calm, polite statesman tone and inject his good-natured humor periodically.

It is not only the LA Times saying it.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2...

Mike Huckabee sent a letter to John McCain, formally asking him to debate. He also posted the letter online and asked anyone who wanted to see that debate to leave a response. In less than 24 hours over 10,000 people have left comments! More than the site administrators can keep up with. This was in response to John McCain's statement that he had not received a formal request from the Huckabee campaign.

John McCain is only 4 points ahead of Mike Huckabee in Texas and 11 in Ohio, according to an American Research poll.

Conservatives aren't buying into the lies about Mike Huckabee, and they are not giving John McCain a pass. They are still researching Huckabee, and are not getting their information from so-called Conservative radio talk show hosts who have become notorious for ignoring or berating Republican candidates like Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and of course Mike Huckabee.

matchup on the War on Terror, War in Iraq, Economy and Taxes. Obama leads McCain on Reversing Government Corruption or something.

Let me ask you this: What are the voters going to find out in the next nine months that are going to move those numbers in Obama's direction? Obama's only plus is that voters think he hasn't been around long enough to be corrupted. they're wrong, of course.

The fact is McCain will only get stronger from here on out. He is in a far better situation that, for example, Bush was vs Kerry in 2004.

McCain has already won if the Dems are dumb enough to nominate Obama (and it appears they are). only the magnitude of the win is in doubt.

When I wanna get a decent poll, I always go to Rasmussen. He ain't perfect, but he's a hell of a lot better than most, including Zogby.

"To believe in nothing is to believe in everything. To believe in everything is to believe in nothing"

Polls are very early at this stage but it does appear McCain has the South locked up minus Arkansas and Florida which will probably both be competitive (although I would keep an eye on Virginia). I'd also like to see where things stand in West Virginia, Delaware, and New Hampshire. In the West we have to worry about Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.

The big worry is Ohio but I believe McCain will still prevail in the state.

But the survey did expose some weaknesses for McCain.

Nearly one in four Republican primary voters said they were "unhappy" that he would win the GOP nomination. And of those voters, about half said they would either vote for another candidate in November or stay home, an ominous sign for Republicans at a time when Democrats are expected to be highly motivated.

There's not quite enough detail here to make firm conclusions, but note that if the head-to-head numbers included the not-for-McCain voters, assuming they can be won over (and I'm confident it will happen in the end, if for no other reason than increasing familiarity with Obama's policies), that's another several percentage points of lead in the end.

Of course, this is all extremely premature and basically irrelevant to the final results, but it does bode well for the future.