McCain Surge Spreads Outside NH?
New polls show surprising movement
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (22) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
First, the state analysis:
IA: The RCP graph shows Huckabee coming down from his plateau and a two man race in IA. McCain looks to have surged into third in recent polls and even second place behind Romney in an ARG poll. It is doubtful that McCain will come in 3rd in a state where he isn't really campaigning, but that would functionally knock out Thompson.
NH: The RCP graph for NH shows the overall movement. More specific poll analysis on NH is below the fold.
MI: For some reason RCP doesn't graph MI despite it being the third major vote this primary season. Nonetheless, the trends are pretty clear. Rudy has fallen noticeably and must be relying on FL and Super Tuesday now that he isn't competitive in IA, NH, or MI. Huck's surge has slowed and Romney and Huck are fighting for the top spot. The question will be how much MI responds to the first two states. Will the IA winner of the Huck/Romney battle get a boost in IA? If Romney takes NH will it translate to MI? What if McCain gets the upset in NH will he be able to jump in MI enough to win the states back-to-back?
SC: The RCP graph for SC shows Rudy and Thompson nosediving while McCain has trended upwards. Huck and Romney still lead. But the margins in SC and the fact that it comes after IA, NH, and MI mean that there could be a big shift in the order of the candidates depending on the 3 earlier states.
National: The RCP graph of national polls show the Rudy plunge is not just in the early states. Huckabee seems to have plateaued around 20% and is fading a little but still solidly in second. McCain has jumped up (mainly due to a Fox News poll) to a third place tie with Romney.
Overall Analysis below:
NH polls: USA Today LVs:
Romney 34
McCain 27
Giuliani 11
Huckabee 9
Paul 9
Fred 4
Rasmussen LVs:
Romney 31
McCain 27
Giuliani 13
Huckabee 11
Paul 7
Fred 3
ARG LVs:
Romney 26
McCain 26
Giuliani 16
Huckabee 11
Paul 4
Fred 4
Candidate Analysis:
The Rudy fall is across most states and includes the early states. Rudy's hope to win one of the early states off his reputation alone seems likely to fail. He will first be competitive in Florida after 4 other "winners" have been crowned.
Huckabee's rise has stopped but he is still competitive in IA, MI, SC and FL. He is still the most likely winner in IA and that momentum may carry him to win several early states. A Huck v. Rudy Super Tuesday is a distinct possibility.
McCain's NH momentum is exactly what his campaign was hoping for. But his better showing in IA and nationally is still a bit surprising. In the best case scenario for McCain, he comes in 3rd in IA, 1st in NH, and the momentum helps him win MI (as he did in 2000) and then SC where the race is very narrow right now. That would make the race functionally a Rudy v. McCain Super Tuesday and beyond. But a more likely scenario is still a 4th or 5th in IA, 2nd in NH, and no wins before Super Tuesday. It's hard to see where McCain goes without a NH win.
Romney is staring at a surprising possibility of losing IA and NH for the first time in months. He is behind in IA but could still win. If he loses IA, losing NH is probably a 50/50 proposition. The expectations game is going to hurt him more than anyone else. 2nd place in IA and/or NH will be seen as losing whereas for Rudy/McCain/Thompson that would be a success. Of course, if he wins both (or even one) he can ride his money wave into MI and SC where he is competitive. Romney could rack up 2-4 of the early states to take on Rudy on Super Tuesday.
Thompson is pursuing the only strategy he has: camp out in IA. If he can make the top 3, he will get some positive press. But even with that, he is not competitive in NH. He can compete in MI but if he's 3rd in IA then Romney and Huck are still around in MI. And if McCain is 1st or 2nd in NH (which is likely) then they are still in MI too. So it's hard to see how a 3rd place IA finish puts Thompson into contention in early states other than SC (but the same analysis applies that Romney, Huck, and McCain will probably still be viable there). If Thompson could win IA, that would be a huge win and give him Kerry-like media coverage. He would still not win NH, but he could exceed expectations there and roll through MI and SC. But this is the least likely of the above scenarios.
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McCain Surge Spreads Outside NH? 22 Comments (0 topical, 22 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
It's probably not knowable at this point, but how do you think the tightening of the Democrat's race in Iowa (and NH now as well) impacts McCain in NH (and therefore the rest of the states)?
The CW is that Romney is ahead (clearly but not comfortably) among GOPers in NH but that McCain is clobbering him (and everyone else) among "independents". That seems to be the case in the Rasmussen and ARG poll, but I cannot get to any cross-tabs on the USA/Gallup.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
A Hillary win in IA helps McCain an Obama win helps Romney. The question is a matter of magnitude. I can't recall where, but I have read that the number of NH Is who intend to vote in the D primary has fallen from the high 60s to the high 50s. That is obviously good for McCain. The I factor also makes polling the state hard. If you are polling Rs only, then Romney will look better than he will do. I think most pollsters ask voters which primary they intend to vote in. So perhaps the screening isn't a problem.
Regardless, anything that makes Is more likely to vote in the GOP primary helps McCain. The Liebermann endorsement. The Union-Leader endorsement. Etc.
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My guess is that if Hillary wins Iowa then the D's race is probably all but over and I's will start to flock to any open primaries where they can pull a GOP ballot (that impacts NH and MI immediately). But if she takes second or (dare we even think it?) third in Iowa the D-race probably becomes an even bigger attraction for I's and they probably leave the GOPers to more or less figure it out for themselves.
Yep, wargaming this race is a hoot!
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
Rudy surge, Thompson surge, Huckabee surge, McCain surge. The one thing that has been consistent throughout the year is Mitt's steady rise and ability to withstand surges from other candidates. They seem to take support away from each other and not Mitt so much. McCain's rise, if real, probably spells the end for Rudy and Thompson.
Rudy never surged. He got in and was in front. He stayed perfectly steady until two weeks ago.
Thompson also peaked when he started and then faded, no real surge.
Huck did surge. And McCain is having a small surge now.
All that said, I will repeat my view on Romney:
Romney is staring at a surprising possibility of losing IA and NH for the first time in months. He is behind in IA but could still win. If he loses IA, losing NH is probably a 50/50 proposition. The expectations game is going to hurt him more than anyone else. 2nd place in IA and/or NH will be seen as losing whereas for Rudy/McCain/Thompson that would be a success. Of course, if he wins both (or even one) he can ride his money wave into MI and SC where he is competitive. Romney could rack up 2-4 of the early states to take on Rudy on Super Tuesday
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I do think that if Romney finishes worse than he is currently polling in Iowa, I think there will be a big jump for McCain in NH, as the Romney supporters may feel they need to go another direction. I think even if McCain finishes 5th in Iowa, it will not harm McCain in NH.
I do disagree about independents in NH, I think if Obama wins in Iowa, as long as he is leading the polls in NH as well, then independents will be able to feel confident enough that he will win, and then vote for McCain. If McCain performs strongly in NH, he has a very strong chance in MI & SC.
The chances of Romney doing worse and of Obama winning in Iowa are probably strong clues as to gauge McCain momentum.
In Iowa, McCain's avg is up only do to the ARG poll, if you remove this poll, which looks like an outlier, McCain is back in 5th, where he has been for the most part.
I do agree that the only hope Rudy has is if Huckabee wins all of the other races, and then it will be like 1976, with Carter winning early states, and then once people realize who they have chosen, they will vote for another candidate. Carter lost many of the later primaries in 1976. With a much quicker news cycle, will there be enough time for Rudy to get the cash needed to stop Huckabee if Huck wins the first few states?
McCain-Feingold, illegal immigration, questionable mental stability and on and on and on. I have never been more disappointed in my fellow conservatives than this year watching how idiotic their excuses have been for supporting liberals like Rudy and Huckabee or conservatives who can't win like Hunter or Tancredo. There are two viable candidates who will govern as conservatives, Mitt and Fred. Pick one!
great analysis (as always). I do have an OT question though it's semi-related - Anyone hear from Gerry Daly recently? I miss his dalythoughts and his polling analysis here. Also, he was the one who pointed me to RedState in the first place, just wondering what he was up to.
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Two thirds of the world is covered by water,
the other third is covered by Champ Bailey.
All I can say is that you are not alone in wondering where he's been and wishing he were still around.
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You would see him endorse within a week .. probably McCain (though I'd head for Mitt's camp in that case).
I'm still hopeful that Huck will slide to 3rd, Thompson will sneak into second and we'll get something like this:
Romney 30
Thompson 23
Huckabee 22
or in my wildest dreams:
Romney 30
Thompson 20
McCain 19
Huckabee 18
Then my top three would be the top three coming out of Iowa.
McCain record.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
Rudy.
And I have money to put on that.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
I'd rather have Johnny Mac than Rudy any day-Johnny's more qualified to be commander in chief, and he'll win this war and the next one coming up in the next 8 years.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
decide if the detainee's lawyer made a case to let said detainee free to plot more terror attacks?
Even those days he chooses judges that will uphold his unconstitutional lwas?
Even those days he wants to be a maverick and kiss dem libs asses?
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
I think he' made some strides, and I'd rather have him than Guiliani, not necessarily the other conservatives. As much as I hate some of Johnny Mac's positions, I think he'd be above and
beyond Rudy Guiliani. This is McCain's war, and he staked his whole campaign on it. Johnny Mac's seen raw combat and he knows how to win the war. Besides McCain knows the conservatives sank him in 2000 and he'll be appointing good judges to keep them around for a second term. Guiliani will get enough liberals and moderates to vote for him that we'll be lucky to get Alito. Rudy's idea that strict constructionists can uphold Roe is plain scary GC. IMO, he needs to go back to NYC with all of his wives.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
won the war sooner. Wrong. Staying the course over TIME to win over and earn trust is what made a successful surge possible. More troops at the beginning, a possibility that Turkey made impossible, and a fact that Mccain conveniently forgot while co-starring as arm chair CINK on Sundays.
McCain made it necessary to stay onger as his yakyak gave hope to the enemy. McCain should have been punching out the traitors in the Senate instead of calling them his honorable freinds. He slandered the troops by admitting to STILL YET UNPROVEN torture. He admits too many MSM known fact lies so he gets to co-star next Sunday,
He has a bad temper. He betrays his GOP friends. He opposes the right of a man to give his estate to his children. He buys into the church of MMGW.
He...
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
Would you vote for him in the general?
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
There was a time when many republicans were stating that this years field of candidates was very strong. And as a result of that strength, there was no clear frontrunner. I no longer believe that.
Instead, I believe there is no clear frontrunner because of the relative weakness of the candidates. The fact is, there isn't a candidate who has yet been able to unite the party. And yes, the party is split among various groups. Each candidate has shown that they can appeal to one group or the other, yet none have been able to appeal to the large coalition that will be needed to win in November. I still believe that Fred Thompson is the one guy who can bring all the coalitions together, but he needs to win a few primaries first.
The bottom line is, come November Barack/Clinton will have a united party that wants to win. The republicans cannot afford to have long drawn out battle during the primaries and ultimately have Rudy McRomney be our nominee. That will be a recipe for a sure defeat in November.
I'm not an agent, I just write books
Only one quibble
Romney is staring at a surprising possibility of losing IA and NH for the first time in months. He is behind in IA but could still win. If he loses IA, losing NH is probably a 50/50 proposition.
I think Huckabee winning Iowa is now discounted in the market. If Romney is a good second this would be positive for him and probably help him into NH. Losing by more than five points would be problematic. Winning (as I suspect he will, given his financial and organisational advantages over Huck) would give him a bounce in NH.
Agreed that if he loses both it is difficult to see his path back. Basically, McCain, Huckabee, and Romney all need to win at least one of those two states, and the maths don't fit.
Thompson could win SC and be competitive in FL on the basis of a good performance short of winning in Iowa. Rudy can survive losing everything before Florida, provided the field remains fractured.
Quentin Langley
Editor of http://www.quentinlangley.net
International Editor of
and everyone is reminded of his:
1) Supporting amnesty for Illegal Immigrants
2) Campaign Finance Reform
3) Gang of 14
4) Opposition to 2001 and 2003 tax cuts
5) Disparaging the "religious right"
6) annoying little Lindsey Graham
7) on and on and on...
Get serious. Don't alienate a huge chunk of the base.
Choose between Fred or Mitt.