MI Afternoon Open Thread
What are you hearing? Low turnout? New polls?
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (123) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
It looks close, but polls show the race being a slight Romney win. However, they are almost all within a margin of error. It could be a long night.
Put your predictions, comments, and implications in here.
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The polls in the four western counties on the upper peninsula close at 8pm EST, and the rest close at 9pm EST.
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left -- Ecclesiastes 10:2
Let's say Romney 33, McCain 30, Huck at a much-higher-than-expected 26, Paul a distant fourth with 6, Giuliani and Thompson tied at 2.
As I said in a previous blog entry, state election officials are expecting a slightly *higher* turnout than in 2000, and that in a state whose population has declined somewhat. The 'vote uncommitted' and Kos spinning Dems to vote for Romney for comedy potential will go nowhere. Ind/Dem voters will pull it in for McCain.
And I think if he wins tonight, he will certainly win south carolina.
I could be wrong though.
As I noted in a previous blog, you might not be too far off. I'm hearing that voter turnout is less then they thought it would be. If that is true, I was thinking that that probably bodes well for the Huckster. I think he's probably too far behind to actually win due to low voter turnout but I wouldn't be surprised if he does better then anticipated.
I think you are wrong. I have looked at the recent poll results, and to be blunt Huck is polling way below 25%. Perhaps, you are expecting a "Huckbounce" from State Rep. LaMar Lemmons' recent efforts?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mi/michigan_repub...
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24382
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
First, the important factors -
1. Romney's "Home state-boy" message falls flat
2. Kos-idiots don't have the ambition to actually put down the bong and vote in a GOP primary on a Tuesday
3. John McCain won MI in 2000
4. John McCain is surging nationally
5. Romney is on the ropes nationally
So, isn't it obvious?
In 2008, Romney will win Michigan by 4 points. It's another comeback in a primary season of comebacks! Given the crazy turning-the-race-on-its-ear kind of primary season both parties are enjoying, this is the Romney comeback state.
SoCo is the Thompson comeback state.
FL is both the McCain and Huck comeback state.
CA will be the Romney-Giuliani comeback state.
NJ will be the Giuliani comeback state.
Finally, we will have a brokered convention where the compromise candidate and nominee will be:
JOE LIEBERMAN!!
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
We had a snowstorm overnight that got us for a couple of inches, but the roads were horrible this morning.
I was absentee vote 80 in my 50/50 GOP/DEM precinct. I drove by my area and few cars were there. So were the other poll stations along my commute (South Livingston, North Washtenaw, swing areas mostly)
My parent's precinct (Strongly GOP) was a very low turnout as well.
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48 hours before the election showed Blanchard leading John Engler by 14 points.
Final:
Engler 51%
Blanchard 49%
A true conservative. Staunchly pro-life.
He said both he and his wife were torn. They like Giuliani but were concerned that a vote for Rudy wouldn't accomplish much. He was thinking about going and pulling the lever for Romney to block McCain. That is what he is going to do.
I think those that find McCain acceptable underestimate how little enthusiasm there would be amongst large blocks of reliable GOP voters for a McCain candidacy. He would get trounced by either Obama or Hillary.
Bob Dole redux.
"I think those that find McCain acceptable underestimate how little enthusiasm there would be amongst large blocks of reliable GOP voters for a McCain candidacy. He would get trounced by either Obama or Hillary."
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
There are three candidates who are conservative and two who are not. Huck is great on a few issues (abortion, traditional marriage, guns) and a lefty on everything else. McCain is great on a few issues (defense, Iraq, national security) and a left on everything else.
McCain's faults
1) Kennedy-McCain Amnesty bill
2) McCain-Feingold speech supression er, campaign finance bill
3) He voted against the Bush tax cuts twice
4) He squaks about "global warming"
5) He thinks dunking Khald Sheikh Mohammed in water violates his civil rightys
6) He was prepared to sell out Bush judicial nominees by joining/founding the Gang of 14
Sorry folks but this is not the record of a conservative.
I agree with Spartan4Life. You speak the truth jpav0923.
McCain has repeatedly co-sponosred the DREAM Act. It gives in-state tuition to illegal aliens and give legal status, as well as a path to citizenshp to illegal aliens.
Mitt Romney vetoed legislation that would have given in-state tuition to illegal aliens.
whatever he is, he's certainly no liberal.
Look at the polls, people - you people who think that in a year that is tilted against Republicans and where we're starting out in a hole as it is, people are going to give Mitt Romney 50.1% of the vote? To a Mormon? (please note - I don't care what religion he is, but apparently it is a huge issue to a lot of people, and not in a positive way).
I'm not crazy about McCain, either. But look at the polls, people. McCain is our best anti-Hillary and anti-Obama hope. I'm not willing to go down in flames hitching my wagon to Romney just so I can say I've been ideologically pure.
The man is pro-life, committed to reducing spending and extending the Bush tax cuts, and is strong on defense and anti-terrorism. Good enough for me. Oh, and that 82 ACU record - and the demonstrated ability to reach out to independents and even Democrats because of his character and integrity - and those 5 1/2 years in the Hanoi Hilton won't hurt his chances either. We lose sight of electability in our echo chamber sometimes, but we have to keep our eye on the prize.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
Funny how that ACU rating doesn't take into account all the times that Chuckie Hagel has stuck a knife in Bush's back over the war. Neither does it take into account all the times that McCain has backstabbed the GOP.
It's also amusing how the McCain droids presume that if you're against McCain, you must be for Romney.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
John McCain's ACU rating in 2006 was a pretty miserable 65.
By comparison, Ben Nelson, a Democrat, had a 2006 rating of 64.
The only Republicans that had lower than 65 for 2006?
Warner-VA: 64
Chafee-RI: 24
Spectre-PA: 43
Voinovich-OH: 56
Snowe-ME: 36
Collins-ME: 48
Lugar-IN: 64
Stevens-AK: 64
Look at that fine crop of RINOs. That puts 'solid conservative' John McCain as the 9th lowest ACU rating among the 55 Republican Senators in 2006.
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
Who would be enthusiastic about a:
President Chaffee?
President Collins?
President Warner?
President Specter? etc
I'm not enthusiastic about a President McCain either.
So answer me this: why was McCain in 2006 17 points below his ACU average?
What has John McCain done for conservatives lately?
---
Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
I wonder if his campaign related absences from the Senate have effected his rating.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
McCain had a 76 rating from the Club for Growth in both 2005 and 2006. He is also a lifetime 82 from the ACU.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Mac is by far our best hope in Nov. and his honesty can restore us as the party of Truth in DC. Its got to be McCain or were going to get our clocks cleaned.
That sets up perfectly for Rudy's rope a dope so to speak.
The only thing I know is that no one knows anything...
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor
I think he could make a very good case against McCain, e.g Mr. Inside vs. Mr. Outside, executive experience, etc.
Rudy has been very careful to stay out of the fray but I doubt he will go down without throwing at least a few punches.
Rasumssen's latest is that it's a four way tie in FL, with everyone within one point of each other. Rudy isn't just losing states, he's losing badly, finishing behind even Ron Paul. It's not like no one knows who he is-but the Mac is back campaing has sucked up Rudy's base-moderates, and Democrats. He's going to probably finish 4th or 5th in FL, and McCain is going to win all of his super Tuesday states. Romney will actually have momentum provind ghe wins tonight, because he will have 3 first place wins (he will win Nevada too) and two second place wins. A McCain loss in SC to Fred narrows it to a 3 man choice of Fred Romney and Rudy (a dream scenario btw) bye knocking out both McCain and Slick Willy Jr. in one fell swoop. If Romney is 2nd to Fred's 1st, one of them is going to take Rudy in Fla. And that of course, leads to Romney/Thompson 08, and a smacking around of the Clintons.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
But Fred won't even come close to winning S.C. After his strong debate performance last week, the fact that he only picked up a point or two in the polls shows that most voters have written him off.
Not so, Florida is all tied up. So, I think Rudy's plan has failed. Florida, BTW has early voting, so we are voting now.
But even a narrow Romney win is not much help. Fred is coming on strong in SC, so Mitt is battling to stay out of fourth there.
Florida is the prize folks. The GOP Super Bowl. Mitt is going to be hurting after SC.
Conversely, if McCain wins, it makes him one of the Florida finalists (since he will win SC).
Because it's close either way, Rudy's stratergery survives.
Fred has a chance to upset the applecart, but he must do something amazing in SC. Otherwise it's reruns for him.
Since when is dramatically increasing the scope of government to keep people like Khalid Sheikh Mohammad in secret prisons and torturing them a conservative position? John Mccain's so called amnesty was an excellent proposal that punished the immigrants while allowing them to come out of the shadows of our culture into the mainstream. All the other candidates proposals are cruel, I laughed out loud at Mike Huckabee saying that his plan to force everyone back to their home countries to wait in line was "compassionate". And guess what, not doing anything is de facto amnesty, Mccain-Kennedy offered a compromise with border security and punishment for those who had violated our laws. Mccain-Feingold, honestly who cares? Campaign finance reform isn't something that greatly effects the nation, I'll give that his position on it is not conservative. And guess what, the gang of 14 didn't seem to stop Roberts or Alito from getting on the most important court, interesting huh? And he voted against the Bush tax cuts for the most conservative reason possible, no spending cuts. Your personal disagreement with John Mccain doesn't mean he's not a conservative, perhaps more moderate than the other candidates he is consistent and actually wants to solve problems instead of slinging mud about important issues like immigration.
...Is that if I ran, you'd all be looking at a 49 state sweep, with the exception of California because most of those folks are from another planet.
True, you've never heard of me, or know any of my positions, but I'm cool...
...and that gives me all the edge I need.
(In short, what I'm saying is, you can all keep your predictions to yourselves. I'll wait for the final tally.)
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“It must not be supposed that folly is as powerful as truth,
just because it can, if it likes, shout louder and longer than truth.”
--Augustine
I live just to the west of Grand Rapids, in Ottawa County. It is the most Republican county in the state, at least according to its website. I just moved here in the winter of 2006, so I'm not overwhelmingly familiar with the local electorate. However, I do know that it's mainly Dutch, Christian Reformed, Republicans.
That said, turnout was quite low this morning when I voted. I was vote 86 and they said that by that point in the morning, normally, they would've had 125-130 and they were expecting 140-150 today. I'm not sure if the weather was keeping people away or the canadites or what.
As I noted in a previous blog, I thought McCain had a lousy close while Romney had some good ads and seemed to finally find a message that worked. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the low turnout boosts Huckabee's numbers. Not to the extent of winning or even coming in second, but it will give him a better showing then he should've had.
For the record I voted Romney, since my canadite of choice is Rudy, and I especially don't want either McCain or Huckabee.
Sorry but I have no problem torturing Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in a secret CIA prison if it will save the lives of Americans. Theory is all well and good in the world of the ivory tower, but there is a very different dynamic in reality.
Protecting and defending the United States is a conservative principle. The fact that McCain is squeemish about some methods indicates to me that he is not serious about national security.
McCain was fully prepared to sell out Roberts and Alito. If the Dems filibustered he would have prevented the GOP from invoking the nucleur option and they would have been defeated. McCain gets no credit for Roberts and Alito.
Also, I'm sick and tired about all this alarmism and whining onj "global warming". I sure as hell don't need to hear it from a GOP nominee for President.
Romney squeaks aout a win and boosts Thompson to striking distance in SC.
"It is hard for the other fella' to hit you when your fist is in his face." -James Carville
I am not buying that line. Thompson's slow start damaged his campaign beyond repair. Thompson is done!
Wait . . . Thompson is done?
I'm sensing another comeback!! That'll make 25 or 26 comebacks for Dems and GOPers this year alone!
Moral of the story - presidential primary polls are nothing but a measure of name ID. Click here
McCain is currently benefitting from his New Hampshire bump. If Romney wins in Michigan, Romney will get a bump. The combination of a Romney bump and a McCain sag could make South Carolina very tight. Thompson may be on the rise; that could make it a three-way race. Huckabee might be able to hold on too and make it a four-way race.
Regardless, with a Romney win in Michigan, the question is not whether he is a player in South Carolina but how many others are players with him.
I think someone actually wrote that McCain represents "making nice to terrorists". If this is what "conservatives" think, then I am no longer a conservative.
This and other comments about McCain are proof that conservatives no longer think for themselves. They let talk radio hosts decide who is and is not a conservative. Please, read the great conservative thinkers for yourselves and make up your own minds in addition to listening to Rush and the others. You are being PLAYED. McCain isn't perfect, but in these times (war, terrorism, a resurgent left) it will take someone new... The Santorums and Allens failed us, and we are in a wilderness. We will only compound it by withdrawing into ourselves.
I'm tired of this insane game of hesaconservative/ hesnotaconservative. McCain has been in the Senate many years, and has had to work with others to get things done. FYI: not all conservatives are isolationists. Not all conservatives are xenophobes. Yet we are being pulled in this direction through talk radio.
Does anyone believe Mitt Romney or Fred Thompson will draw enough independent voters to win the White House? I think there are many "conservatives" who want to undo everything Buckley and others worked for in bringing Conservatism into the mainstream. Like it or not, there will be no conservative movement if Hispanics are marginalized and abused.
Since when was empowering the individual to work and enjoy the fruits of his own labor not conservative? Since when was building walls and using the State to regulate labor conservative? We can solve these problems without engaging in these petty games.
If McCain's record is judged to be not good enough for the presidency, and Mitt Romney's is in spite of his crass flip-flopping (tell me lies, Mitt, you beautiful rich guy), then I'm afraid it will represent the final crack-up of the conservative movement... Are we ready for 50 more years of FDR/LBJ? I guess so.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
I certainly believe Fred can draw enough independent (and even moderate Dems) to win the White House. He actually matches up well against both Obama and Clinton. With their positions being so far left, Fred's stance on the issue will be relevant. Also, he will lay out substance opposed to the Dems rhetoric and/or style. Independents will be left with a clear view of Thompson's positions and will just have to guess at what either Obama or Hillary will actually do.
Considering that there are a lot of independents and moderate Democrats that believe somewhat in fiscal conservative issues, how can "anybody" believe that Fred couldn't wins support from them?
when you mock Mitt for being "rich"--using the language of the left actually deepens the suspicions that conservatives have about McCain.
If McCain and his supporters are going to use the word "rich" in a derrogatory way, I will not support him in the primary.
that stopped McCain/Kennedy, it was the 80% of the people in this country that aren't far left. Also, all the polls that ask 'would you be in favor of the troops coming home from Iraq' are garbage. I want the troops to come home, like any rational person. That doesn't mean I don't want them to finish the job first, or that I am willing to see Iraq dive into chaos! Most people don't want higher taxes. If we can keep the Dems from making the election about poor mothers who came here to give their children a better life, but can't get health care and suffer without A/C during an abnormally hot summer that is surely a sign from mother earth and don't you care about the polar bears you rich, greedy, heartless crones..
Then maybe we can actually win in November.
Its not to your credit that you assume that if someone disagrees with you, it must be because they're mind-numbed robots who brainlessly take their orders from talk radio.
FYI, I'm the guy who incredulously asked if "conservatism=making nice to terrorists?" in response to someone weeping that Khalid SM was imprisoned and even 'tortured.' I don't listen to talk radio and I have read the great conservative thinkers.
I'm not deadset against McCain, but neither do I think that Adam Smith would be cheering on John McCain's plan to cripple the economy in genuflecting to the trans-nationals' global warming shibboleth. Neither do I think that Edmund Burke or his interpreter Kirk would be real delighted with McCain's willingness to welcome millions of illegal immigrants without first taking effectual steps to control our borders. Neither do I think Ronald Reagan would be thrilled by McCain's indifference to the size of government and the tax burden.
If your brand of conservatism is more intellectual, there's no evidence of that in your comment.
I am a talk radio fan myself, and I notice the influence that the hosts have on people's prejudices for or against certain figures. McCain has much to recommend him to conservatives, including high conservative ratings (82 to Santorum's 88) and a pro-life voting record. I feel that he has been treated unfairly by conservatives because he was on the wrong side of an emotional issue, one made even more emotional by the talk show hosts (they gladly take credit for stirring the pot).
I do not believe for a second that McCain weeps over terrorists, nor do I believe that he is averse to rough interrogations. But lest we forget he WAS tortured, and he wants to believe that we are better than the men who tortured him.
Adam Smith: It is hard to determine where Adam Smith would come down on Global Warming. True or untrue in actuality, Global Warming is real Geo-political entity that must be dealt with constructively. It may be a tool for leftists, but it will not help the right to leave it to them completely. Instead, we must counter their arguments and be good stewards of the earth in a way that is good for markets. This cannot be done without engaging people.
Edmond Burke: Burke was a champion of localized governance with deference to traditional modes of hierarchy. These are not threatened by itinerant laborers from traditionalist societies. Rather, it is particuarly anti-Burkean to crowd these people into urban settings, detaching them from their agrarian traditions, and forcing them to live underground where they are afraid to return home for fear of being arrested on their way back in. One of Burke's famous speeches was in defense of Indians being humiliated by operatives of the East India Trading Company.
Ronald Reagan: RR signed an amnesty bill in 1986. I guess that would disqualify him as a real conservative if he had been able to run again in 1988. Reagan also demanded that cuts in spending accompany his cuts in taxes. This is the same demand that led McCain not to support the Bush tax cuts. Deficits are not conservative.
Lastly, I made no assertion that my brand of conservative was more or less intellectual than anyone else's. I simply find myself questioning whether my brand of conservativism fits into what I see bearing that name today.
"The most dangerous form in which oppression can overshadow a community is that of popular sway" -James Fenimore Cooper
Chatted with my lovely wife last night about the primary. She is not a political junkie although she takes her responsibilities seriously and votes in the general election. She wasn't favoring any candidate and wasn't planning to vote today. About the only thing she felt strongly was not seeing another Clinton in the Whitehouse.
Here's something you may not know about swing voters. They dislike Mitt...a lot. ALL the polls show Mitt losing in a landslide against either Hillary or Obama and they will raise more than enough money to counter his deep pockets. That means major down-ticket losses for the GOP. Another 25 seat loss in the House, loss of 4-5 governorships, and a possible 9 seat loss in the Senate. Say goodbye to our filibuster and our conservative advantage on the Supreme Court!
Do you get you numbers..."Another 25 seat loss in the House, loss of 4-5 governorships, and a possible 9 seat loss in the Senate."? I'm not a big Romney fan and I do think that he would lose the general, but I'm not seeing anything that looks like what you're talking about. From what I see an additional nine seat loss in the Senate, at this point, is virtually impossible. Just wanted to know what you were seeing that I wasn't.
CQ Politics says there are 31 seats that are either toss-up or leaning Republican. I'm guessing that we will lose almost all of them. It will be another 2006 wave with Romney at the top of the ticket in 2008.
Based on CQ Politics I would also guess losses of governorships in MO, IN, VT, NC, and WA (being a net loss of 3) and Senate losses in OR, NM, CO, MN, VA, NH, ME, possibly even NC or KY, and even AK if Stevens runs. Forget about picking up LA.
I'm not for the guy - right now, I'm not for anybody - but I think that we can avoid this level of hyperbole. There are at least five variables that will affect the final Congressional and gubernatorial counts, and you are weighting one of them as being the overwhelmingly important one. Tain't.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Mitt is by far the most intelligent candidate in the race. This advantage gets lost in the era of the 30 second soundbite. One can not present solutions to complicated problems in 30 seconds.
Having listened to Mitt deliver 15-20 minute speeches on the campaign trail, I can assure you he has substantive and detailed proposals to deal with our nations challenges.
Mitt would slaughter Hill-bama in a one on one substantive debate about the issues.
It seems to me that Romney is the candidate the mainstream media hates the most. Hmmm.....
When was the last time the public was given an actual substantive debate? Ever? Elections have as much if not more to do with personality than anything else. If they were based on sheer intelligence, then John Kerry would be President. Aren't you glad they aren't?
...about Bush's supposed stupidity, yes?
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
Difficult to figure this one because of the circumstances in Michigan, however:
McCain 31
Romney 29
Huck 20
Fred 8
Paul 7
Rudy 5
The key here is the crossover vote, as has been stated. As I get it the key figure is 20%, if the crossover is more than 20 then McCain wins, if under then Romney wins.
On the one hand, the lack of a contest on the Dem side plus whatever enthusiasm there might be to cross over either for a candidate McCain or Paul perhaps or Huckabee might boost the crossover.
On the other hand the Michigan contest requires you to ask for a ballot, Rep or Dem, rather than simply voting on a generic ballot as in previous races. In effect you're d eclaring as a Republican or temporarily registering as such, rather than more secretly voting Rep (or Dem as the case might be). So that might depress the overall crossover. Additionally the weather is bad all over Michigan, so trunout is lowered and this is thought to help Romney, as people will be less inclined to go out to vote in the other party's primary.
Hard to figure, very close in any case.
Man, I hope you're right.
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Isn't it interesting that when we talk about Democrats and Independents voting in large numbers in the GOP primary, in this case 20% or better, that McCain would probably win. However, when the primary voters are just Republicans then Mitt probably wins.
So, the choice of Republicans in Michigan for president is Mitt Romney, but the choice for Democrats and Indys is McCain. Hmmmm . . . makes me want to run away from McCain as fast as I can - just like in 2000.
As is often the case, you get a bright, genuine guy like Romney who listens to his political consultants rather than his GUT and he comes off looking fake.
Romney should have run his campaign from the start as the "competence" candidate. The guy who "plans his work and works his plan". Instead, he ran as this big social conservative. This was an error. Sure, I think Romney has decent socially conservative bonafides, but they aren't his real core. His REAL CORE is that he will bring COMPETENCE back to the POTUS.
INTRADE UPDATE:
Intrade has swung VERY HARD to Romney today as he is +21.0 and McCan't is -4.6. Rasmussen Markets is showing a 25 point swing to Romney as well.
CONCLUSION:
Michigan only has 30 delegates available because they are being punsihed for going early. Although MI is not a "winner-take-all" states, the delegates are doled out based on a complex formula.
Assumming Romney gets the lion's share with a win and Huck gets few, Romney could have a 30 delegate lead going into SC over Huck and more over McCain. He would also see a big momentum bump. I think if McCain loses MI he will be severely damaged.
Don't look for a big "cross-over" vote for McCain. Also, word is absentee balloting went heavily for Romney and since Romney is strong with the "snowbirds" (older folks who winter in Florida and vote absentee), he will get a big bump there.
If McCain loses in Michigan, I think you will see his numbers collapse in SC and nationally. Huck will again be a very poor 3rd in MI and he was trailing McCain in SC badly already (bloom is off the rose).
SC will now become a battle between Romney and Thompson. I also see those two as a possible Pres/VP ticket down the road.
The Zogby Poll that showed McCain ahead by 1 point today decided that 50% of the voters today in the Republican Primary would be Independents and Democrats. Sorry, that's just nuts.
I'm going with the Mitchell Poll (very accurate history) that has Romney +6 and am guessing Romney will win by 6 to 8 points.
That somehow finishing second would cripple McCain in South Carolina. The logic there doesn't make any sense. Finishing second means that Thompson and Huckabee finish behind him.
McCain is anathema to Conservative Republicans. Amongst Conservatives in NH, McCain lost by 30 points to Romney!
The ONLY thing that McCain had going for him in an uber-Conservative state like SC was "inevitability" and "band-wagoning". If he cannot win an "open" primary state like Michigan, he truly is in trouble in a "closed" SC primary.
I appreciate your opinion and support of John; however, I believe you will see I am right.
The bottom is falling out for McCain on Intrade. Right now, Romney is PLUS 21 for the day and McCain is MINUS 21. All in all a 42 POINT SWING to Romney.
Who knows, but Intrade has done reasonably well in predicting these things.
Intrade usually has a good record. Last night I prayed for miserable weather in northern and western Michigan. If the Dems and Independents stay home because of the weather, Mitt can win big among Republicans.
This will give him momentum heading into South Carolina where the only people voting will be conservative Republicans.
I don't want to get my hopes up too high, but I think tonight can be a great night for Mitt (and America).
Wow, just wow. That is a HUGE swing to Romney.
Here is the thing. If Romney wins AND carries the Republican vote by more than 10 points, that will HURT McCain in SC and help Romney.
The Dem race and the GOP race are completely different. We don't have a woman running, we don't have a minority running and we aren't breaking voter turnout records.
covering the Michigan Election AT ALL today? Lol, no Dems and the guy they HATE is winning on the Republican side.
During Iowa and NH is was all elections all the time. Today, barely a mention.
...a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right...
---Thomas Paine---
Romney 30%
McCain 28%
Fred 16% in a shocker
Huck 15%
Rudy 7%
Paul 6%
I want Fred to win SC desparately. He's my #1 and no one is a close 2nd. However much I'd love to think your scenario is plausible, I just don't think it is. I don't think he's polling over 6%. Not to mention that a lot of Fred supporters are voting for Romney in Michigan.
If McCain doesn't win in a state in which Democrats and independents are voting for him I don't see how he can win in a state in which only conservative republicans vote.
If McCain has two big defeats, he loses all momentum. He has no money and I think he is finished. Huck doesn't have the organization to compete in all the Super Tuesday states.
I think things could really be going Mitt's way.
A guy, don't know who, but made me laugh with this statement:
Thompson is gonna beat Huckabee like a rented mule...
He was talking about the message, not the polls... that will follow IMHO
Is that SC phrase? Never heard it before...
mules v Donkeys, both of which are jackasses? The GOP is renting this one!
smile
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
for answers, humor, common sense, sometimes no sense, and yes, even for a super hero transformation to defend Fred! Thanks
I couldn't begin to guess the actual origin of that one, but we use it here. There's one like it also:
Thompson is gonna beat Huckabee like a red-headed step-child.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
used to say "Slipperier than swamp sh*t on bullfrogs belly", Thats the best I personally have come across...
I'd buy "treat him like a red-headed step child." Or, made him feel "like the red-headed step child." To me, the connotation is that the "red-headed step child" is, shall we say, a spurious offspring, perhaps a product of something "in the woodpile," or, in less polite company, a bastard.
In Vino Veritas
Southerners have that x is LIKE y stuff down. Think of it in terms of how you'd treat a rental car as opposed to your own car. Another derivative is "beat him like he owns him," but that might not be taken well in some circles.
In Vino Veritas
"beat em like a Red headed step child", or "beat em like a Jose's Pinata."
I also heard "he is more nervous than a cow with a buck toothed calf."
and "Dumber than a dog sittin on an ant pile"
"Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty"
Kyle
With the low turnout, I have to think that the state will go to Romeney. The absentee vote alone will put him over the top. Curious why the turnout is low - that's not a good sign for us no matter who wins the nomination.
IMO, McCain's support in MI was going to depend on cross-over voters from the Dem side. If turnout is low, I would expect that the crossover is VERY low.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
Slick roads, some snow. I'm sure that decreased the turnout a fair margin. Estimate is supposed to be 20% turnout. That's a piss poor number, in my opinion.
------------------------------------------
48 hours before the election showed Blanchard leading John Engler by 14 points.
Final:
Engler 51%
Blanchard 49%
This would probably have something to do with it. Looks like they are getting snow.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
military votes = Mc IS BACK!!
Final:
McCain: 32%
Romney: 25%
Huck: 19%
I wish, but no. I understand they polled absentee ballot voters and Romney had a good edge with them. Fox exit poll numbers showed only 25% independents. I don't see that as enough and they also found a good sized 'home boy' vibe for Romney. I don't see how McCain wins with these numbers. He'll have to hope SC gives him his next victory.
Insiderish info I have heard is concurring with the Intrade push to Romney.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
Do you really know someone or are you referring to blog chatter?
One interesting thing is that exit polling showed that by far the most important issue was THE ECONOMY. Polls BEFORE the elction showed Romney WAY ahead on the economy.
Romney wins.
Yay! I have friends!
Though they might have seen the blogs, though I think I posted before this all started popping up.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
Thanks for the snow. I guess God is a Mormon after all :)
Leave that kind of hatred to the Democrats. They seem to be having a good ol' time tearing each other apart right now with racism and sexism. Please don't tear the GOP apart with religious bigotry.
You equate my playful comment to religious bigotry?
I'll have you know that I have NEVER met a Mormon on my life who wasn't upstanding and trustworthy, which is more than I can say for many Baptists I've met.
So anyway, unlight that short fuse and get a life.
First exit polls have
Romney 35
McCain 29
Huck 15
Paul 10
etc
Economy is the main issue
i thought Huck would do better, also Fred below paul??
in Michigan...he did not compaign...
The HinzSight Report
Managing Editor
are largely Democrats anyway....stellar exceptions noted, such as RightMichigan.
They are not interested in small government, though they SHOULD be. Ergo, Fred's message of hope and prosperity by free market forces is lost on MI.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
After 2004 the Networks no longer divulge exit polling until the polls are closed.
What is your source?
They JUST can't resist being Cheating Cheaters. On the 6pm (Central) update, they didn't give any actual results, in some lame attempt to be coy, but said something like this (paraphrase):
Low turnout in Michigan's Republican Primary. And exit polls show very low numbers of Independents and crossover Democrats, which John McCain was counting on.
So with one or two hours remaining, that jerk Vic Rattner from that hosehead network ABC is basically spewing what should be privileged information. Who or what he is attempting to influence, I don't really know. What is franky IRRITATING is that they continue to attempt to game the process.
Stare decisis is fo' suckas -- Feddie
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might as well have not even opened up. Nobody came out. Republican areas were busy. That is a good sign. I think Romney wins by 5-7 points.
McCain by 5pts.
Although I'm kinda rooting for a Romney victory even though I don't really like him and would much rather McCain, because I want Rudy to win Florida.
That said, I'll be almost as happy with a McCain victory.
Just as long as neither Romney nor Huckabee end up being the nominee.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"