MI Evening Open Thread
Polls close at 7 PM CST
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (253) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Polls close in just over an hour. Exit polls (as seen in comments on last open thread) seem to suggest a flip of NH with Romney winning by 5-6 points. But polls aren't closed, so things could change.
And futures markets put Romney at 76% and McCain at 20% right now, a big change from the 50/50 last night.
[UPDATE] According to FoxNews, 1.3 million voted in the R primary in 2000 and about 1.0 million are expected today. More bad news for the Rs as the enthusiasm gap in IA and NH seems to have occurred in MI as well.
[UPDATE at 9:00 PM EST] FoxNews project Mitt Romney to win MI.
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Every time I see a prognostication from you, it's Huck beating expectations. Do you ever foresee Huck not winning something? Ever?
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My guess is that Huck will win SC and many states beyond it.
Fred will not win a single state.
Rudy will only win 4 or 5 states.
This is now a race between McCain, Huck, and Romney.
That would be great, Romney gets the conservative vote, and McCain and Huck split the moderate vote.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
I certainly don't want to waste time searching through all the back posts...so what was your prediction for Michigan?
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Mike Huckabee will most certainly NOT win the state of Alaska. :)
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
You'd have to live in AK - Alaska to really appreciate how irritating it is that so few people can get that right. You wouldn't believe how much mail I've eventually received that was addressed to Juneau, Arkansas - thank goodness for zip codes.
In Vino Veritas
The Huckabee supporters were predicting a big surprise showing in MI yesterday. Why aren't we hearing about the Huckabust after we were all treated to Huckaboom and Huckazoom?
I predict Huckabee will stick around for awhile and grab his 15% while the other guys fight for the nomination.
As I said in another Thread, While I support Romney, I will not claim victory until the votes are counted. (or at least some of them).
But I think Romney will get a weather-related win of a few %. The weather should keep most of the troublemaking independents and Democrats away from the GOP primary.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Thompson is gaining ground and is tied with Huckabee and Romney for 2nd.
Maybe people are finally realizing what the Huckster is all about...His campaign rhetoric does not match his record..
I knew that once I dropped Romney he'd start winning. It's kismet, the story of my life.
It wouldn't work. It only happens when I have the chance to get proven right in my first impressions. It works in reverse after that. If I were to switch to Huckabee, not only would he win, I would have to crawl away to an encrypted folder of cyberspace forever.
It's called "Kowalski's Corollary" or "Why the world never listens to me, even though it should, at least at first." ;)
then I definitely take back my request.
And I think, like you, I would be pleased with any combination of Thompson/Romney as our nominees.
[And looking at my first post, I am missing a "for". I hate that!]
EXIT POLLS SHOW: Romney 34, McCain 29, Huckabee 16... Voting Stops at 8 PM ET... Developing...
How do I know? SC is EVANGELICAL CENTRAL and McCain is polling 10 points ahead of Huck in the two most recent polls.
MI will be Hucks 3rd HORRIBLE FINISH in a row. He is losing traction bigtime.
Huck has not had any "horrible finishes." He's right where he has planned to be.
Win Iowa
Place in NH, Michigan
Win SC
Win Florida
Win the rest (using the 10 million that he will have earned by Feb 5)
How long is it going to be before you post that was the plan all along ?
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I guess South Carolina will answer which one is.
number of Independent voters participating in the Republican primary than did in 2000. Although Sen. McCain received more support from Independents than any of the other candidates, the total number was not enough to overcome the margin of support Gov. Romney received from Republicans.
Apparently, Conventional Wisdom failed to anticipate that Independent voters would simply stay home.
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
..., shocked that Independents and Democrats didn't feel like slogging through nasty weather to vote in the Republican primary. But as I'm in the Romney camp, I'm glad.
Still not willing to celebrate until I see some returns, but it is looking good.
I can't take the waiting either. Going to the movies now and hopefully by the time I return there will be a Winner!
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
we don't have to beat him up for every move he makes. I thought that one was actually pretty funny...much funnier than his other lame-o jokes.
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
67% of GOP primary voters were republican and 25% Indies... So while McCain led Romney among indies, Romney was crushing McCain among republicans by 13 points.
Granted, it was still early exit polls, but if results hold, it should be a solid Romney win. With the order being Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani, Thompson.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
what, if any, affect Ron Paul finishing ahead of Guliani and Thompson will have. Probably none since they have lowered expectations to levels that even Huckabee would envy. I can't wait to hear Huck's victory speech about finishing third in MI, considering he was leading MI polls not that long ago.
just more bad news for Giuliani and Fred. More so for Giuliani. If it happens like that :)
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
RP's been ahead of Giuliani. He even got 2 delegates. But Paul has a ceiling of 8%, apparently, whereas Giuliani could win the nomination under some circumstances. Thompson... well, he's got a conservative record, which basically disqualifies him from national office.
I thought Fred would get the female vote, since he was on Law and Order. (?) Guess not.
many of Fred's supporters on Fred08.com declared they were voting for Romney because they could not bear to see McCain win. Had they not done so, Thompson would have pulled into 4th easily. Hopefully there will be some MI exit-polling showing the "second choice" factor.
...had a question that isn't precisely the same, but which should generally track the idea.
The question of which candidate who would be most likely to bring needed change (this should usually be the preferred candidate) shows Thompson at 5% rather than 4%. At 5% he probably wouldn't have placed 4th.
It does break it down by the candidate actually voted for, though, and it does show that those who did defect from Thompson mostly went to Romney. Romney also did best with those who defected from Giuliani, and McCain did best with those who defected from Huckabee.
It will be interesting to see the number of REPUBLICANS that turned out compared to 2000. Total numbers are meaningless when Dems and Indes can vote.
and left Michigan, never to return?
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Getting 70% of the black vote.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Among Conservative Republicans
Gov. Romney - 38%
Sen. McCain - 23%
(Fox News)
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
given what can be extrapolated from the exit polls, but I fear the minority will remain in the minority.
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
is a 5 point win enough to give a bounce for Mitt? It is his home state and he pulled all his resources to win there. I just do not see how Mitt gets anykind of bounce to help in SC and FLA. His best bet is for a Huck sweep in those 2 states and then on 2/5 Mitt can run as the anti-Huck candidate. However I cannot see MI hurting McCain enough in SC to cause him lose his lead there.
McCain '08
Excuse me, but here in Florida, we just started voting, and their is a virtual tie between the four top candidates, so yes, a Michigan win should help Romney.
Its the same problem Hillary has the only thing either can do with momentum is lose it.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
behind both McCain and Huckabee and McCain won this state in 2000. Keep on trying to spin Romney's win, which I expect will be by a bigger margin than McCain's win in NH, where Johnny also won in 2000 by a very large margin. McCain's Mo is no Mo.
I knew it.
This win is HUGE for Romney and a DISASTER for McCain. Watch McCain to drop 10 points in SC tomorrow.
But it is a big win for Romney and it does hurt McCain, especially after expectations were much higher. A four-way tie in SC should bring out all the shills in full force.
What we need in a leader is to tell us not what we want to hear, but what we need to hear.
Fred Thompson 2008
==== 13 ====
Sen. McCain had been on a downward trend there nationally and basically was in a tie with Gov. Huckabee as of today (up 1 percent). I can't wait to see the Intrade movement after polls close if this turns out as it appears.
Any exit poll that has been posted predicting a Romney victory is meaningless. They are still voting in Michigan for ten minutes meaning late exit polls haven't been released yet. Early exit polls favor older voters who vote early, who were alive when George Romney was Governor. Late exit polls favor young votes who vote after work and will vote in favor of McCain. So please, enough with the exit polls. We will hear real results in the next hour. Geesh. When will we learn?
"I believe in grace, because I have seen it. In peace, because I have felt it. In forgiveness, because I needed it."
-George W. Bush
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
My best guess.
41% Mitt
28% McCain
20% Huck
5% Paul
3% Fred
3% Rudy
have Hill clubbing uncomitted. Also 78% of African Americans voted for uncomitted.
McCain '08
Laughing and crying all at the same time.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
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"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
***
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
It's the availability factor.
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
but still smokin' hot.
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left -- Ecclesiastes 10:2
"Go ahead, make your jokes, Mr. Jokey... Joke-maker. But let me hit you with some knowledge. Quit now". -White Goodman
There were two guys holding HUGE RonPaul™ signs in downtown Dundee ALL DAY LONG! Same two guys! You have to love their tenacity. Or psychosis.
What we need in a leader is to tell us not what we want to hear, but what we need to hear.
Fred Thompson 2008
==== 13 ====
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Mine was news
Yours is an olds.
Unexpected vs Expected. Not unlike your petulant reaction to anything you might perceive as anti huckabee is also an old.
It would be news if you reacted without attacking another candidate.
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Who else are the liberals that hate Hillary going to vote for? I'm mildly surprised Ron Paul isn't beating Mike.
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
A state where some polls close at 7 and others at 8. That was one of the big reason for Florida 2000. I mean if the exit polls showed a 2 point race, the losing candidate could get out the GOTV operation. I am sure Mitt will win and my post is not anti-Mitt, I just find it odd that the MSM continues to do these kind of things.
McCain '08
They actually called the race before polls closed in FL.
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The Republican-leaning Panhandle was CDT and the networks called after the Eastern time zone sites closed. If I recall, the UP in Michigan is Central but represents a relatively small number of people compared to the EDT sections of the state.
that the exit polls of EST areas were used that underrepresented panhandle voters that caused them to call it before the panhandle polls closed.
McCain '08
even though the Panhandle precints were to remain open another hour. Immediately at 7 p.m. Eastern, by the way. In contrast, clearcut results in places like Georgia were held back until the Mountain and Pacific time zone states continued to vote. It smelled to high heaven.
He has just shown that he is UNELECTABLE by the Republican Base.
Yesterday he was INEVITABLE, today he is UNELECTABLE.
Any time you use ALLCAPS, it makes it TRUE!
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that the numbers stay solid for Romney. All true Conservatives in Michigan need to get to the voting booths and make sure that the wheels come off the 'Wong Way Express' of Senator McAmnesty.
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
Intrade is quickly moving towards a Romney win in MI, true (89.8 as of last look), but what effect is it having on other primaries?
South Carolina:
John -17
Mitt +6
Fred +16 (!)
Mike +3
Florida:
John -20
Rudy +11
Mitt +10
Mike -9
(I'm counting 'Field' as Mike, since for whatever reason they don't have a separate one for him.)
It looks like my theory that a win for Mitt in MI being good for Fred in SC and for Rudy in FL is showing up on Intrade.
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
is that they over analyze the current news. After NH, it was McCain was a shoe-in for the nomination for doing what he had to do by winning there. He still had to show he could win a state that he did not in 2000. I also do not see how a Mitt win in MI, where he was born and raised and put all of his resources him makes him the front runner. He did what he had to do. I do not think anyone should get frontrunner status until after FLA. It is the one state where all five candidates are playing and none has a natural base that is large enough to make them a heavy favorite. The state is also good sample of the national GOP
McCain '08
Zogby and the rest of these pollsters, most of whom should find another occupation after their well off the mark predictions so far in this campaign.
As far as Mitt winning in his home state not being such a big deal, I seem to remember his detractors playing up the fact that he couldn't win in his own backyard in NH. You can't have it both ways.
This was a significant defeat for McCain, especially since he does not have the resources for a long slog as does Romney.
If MI Dems outvote MI Reps when the Ds don't even have a race, that's bad, bad news for the GOP in November. IA and NH were already evidence that the GOP is having a bad year. This would be shocking. But right now it looks about even with under 1% reporting.
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Michigan has become the bluest of the blue (I suspect Republicans are overepresented in those leaving the state).
We have the worst economy in the country, and yet re-elected a democratic governor who has no clue about economic issues.
Thus, the low turnout is not a surprise. This state needs to hit bottom---and I guess we aren't there yet.
You can horribly underperform and still be happy
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
IA, NH, and MI were three of the closest states in 2004. In all 3, the Ds have swamped the GOP in primary voting.
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I don't think ANY Republican Presidential candidate is going to win, period, in 2008.
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I am probably a bit too cynical on Michigan today---it is after all tax day for those of us self-employed folks who pay quarterly
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
With both the Dem and Rep primaries reporting 32% in, it's a total of 306,425 Republican votes and 172,777 Democratic votes.
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Finrod's First Law of Bandwidth:
A picture may be worth a thousand words, but it takes the bandwidth of ten thousand.
NT
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Its not over
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/MI.html
Shows map on whats coming in and its interesting to note Romney is winning in less counties and ones McCain is winning are not fully reported in. St Johns county has big McCain lead with Huckabee second and still has half out
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
Romney is doing very well in Grand Rapids
Romney is also leading in Lansing. I thought Lansing is more moderate part of state?
1. Unlike in 2000, a signficant portion of the viable field simply isn't competing in Michigan.
2. The weather is crummy, while in 2000, it was apparently nice.
3. Much of that 2000 turnout was by Democrats and Independents when Gore was already running away with the nomination, and Democrats in particular were eager to stick it to Governor Engler.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
Interesting that Romney is winning Detriot? Could this be cross over Dems playing a part?
Republicans in Detroit (there's bound to be a few) hate McCain's support of carbon caps and CAFE, and opposition to drilling.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
I'm just guessing, but at some point you would think that even metropolitan residents in MI have to be wondering why they should continue to vote Democrat when you consider the worsening condition of their state economy.
Even union workers and auto workers would want a change a some point.
Just guessing out loud on this one. You probably can give me more insight into the current MI voter.
The suburbs of Detroit are pretty conservative. Romney has been doing very well there in polling for some time. I expected that.
As for Democrats voting for the Republicans, McCain actually won that total, with 41% of Democrats favoring him. Not nearly enough of them voted, however, to push him ahead of the Republicans backing Romney.
"Don't ever be afraid to see what you see." ~Ronald Reagan
From the Detroit News Feed
Michigan - 335 of 5385 Precincts Reporting - 6%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Romney , Mitt GOP 24,907 37%
McCain , John GOP 20,547 31%
Huckabee , Mike GOP 10,551 16%
Paul , Ron GOP 4,015 6%
Thompson , Fred GOP 2,785 4%
Romney is going to win. All you have to do is look at suburbs around Detroit Romney is winning big there while McCain is doing well in upstate areas but not a lot voters came out there.
I preface this by saying I am a long-time Michigan resident and a dedicated conservative who is not a fan of McCain's.
The suburb's of Detroit are generally characterized as moderate Republicans while the upstate and western parts of the state are far more conservative.
The Romney name in Michigan is associated more with liberal Republicanism.
This is an interesting primary.
Let the home boy moneybags excuses begin.
He's only finished in 2nd place, 1st place, 2nd place, 1st place (with another expected 1st place in Nevada next) and has a big lead in delegate count. How could he possibly win? Is he going to drop out yet? (Did I do that right?)
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
It seems to me he lost to a goofball from Hope, took 1st in a place nobody went to, took 2nd in his back yard, and won at his ancestral home by promising to use the federal government to fix Michigan.
But yes, it's been a long two weeks since the 'Mitt is inevitable' meme. It's time to bring it back!
Is hard to pin down. CNN for example includes a proportional allocation for Iowa, which probably won't be the reality - it certainly isn't as of today since no delegates have been selected. They also - as far as I can tell - will include in the total any auto-delegate (state chair or committeepeople - 3 total for each state) who have "declared" for a candidate.
In real actual delegates committed by voting - Romney (if we include Michigan results) has 8 in WY, 4 in NH, and 10 in MI (per CNN) for a total of 22. McCain has 8 in MI and 7 in NH for 15. That's out of a total of 2,380.
When we have primaries on 2/5 that will commit 1,000+ delegates, it seems ridiculous to talk about "delegate leads" for anybody.
Reality - nobody is out, nobody was going to be out even if McCain won tonight. Romney has always had the money to go to SC, FL and on to 2/5. Rudy is already living in 2/5. McCain and Huckabee have wins that make them factors in the upcoming states and they could survive to 2/5. Fred's fate falls to SC so hard to say much - but he's still in for now.
Not to knock the delegates in WY, but they pick via conventions - I don't think they even have something as "popular" as a caucus. Winning there does not seem like anything special (considering he's the only one that actually "campaigned" in the state). So I don't see why anybody should tout WY as a "win" when it was a bunch of party operatives in a room making the decision.
Reality - nobody is out, nobody was going to be out even if McCain won tonight.
There was been plenty of talk about Romney being out after coming in 2nd in NH. Nobody is out, not even Fred, at this point. Nobody will be out until 2/5.
As far as WY goes, I don't think their mini conventions are any different than caucuses... I think they are a little bigger is all. They are just meetings. These are not smoke filled back rooms where deals are made and the public isn't invited. They are very much an indication of where the Republican base in WY is at... just as the caucuses and conventions are.
It's not just WY the MSM is ignoring, either. NV will also be ignored. The MSM doesn't like caucuses so they simply ignore them, except for Iowa, because they are the first.
(I participate in a state that has a caucus system and I think it gets a bad rap for no good reason.)
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Also no candidates campaigned in WY and none have campaigned in NV. So it's not really a measure of their ability to win a contested race. IA was different b/c the candidates campaigned there for months.
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Why would they waste any time when they get zero momentum out of a win because it won't even be covered by the media? We are letting the MSM decide which contests are important. And the answer they came up with is IA and the primaries.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
it seems that you forgot to completely ignore Romney's victory in Wyoming, McCain won in Romney's back-yard, no one could possibly predict the Nevada voter's mood in this volatile political atmosphere, and if Romney loses Nevada, it's all over for him.
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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
Wow, more Mitt is finished if...talk. BTW, Romney is back on the air in SC, and will be competitive.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
***
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
Detroit News just called Romney as winner
I think a tennis analogy can be made here, at New Hampshire, it was McCain vs. Romney at deuce. McCain won, advantage McCain. Romney won tonight, it's back to deuce. A win for McCain would have given him a lot of momentum into SC and on...a loss leveled the playing field.
Also, Romney had a week to chip away at McCain's lead in Michigan...the field has only three days to adjust to whatever shift happens because of tonight's results.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
This may go down to the wire.
"In my youth, it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics." -- Ronald Coase
Florida hasn't shown ANY support in the early states. Florida should drop out now. It's not even funny any more. Just sad.
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
And now you bash me, flame me, with your ad hominem attacks.
Screw you guys. I'm goin' home.
Oh, and before I go--FLORIDA IS A RINO LOSER!
"People will not look forward to posterity who never look backward to their ancestors." -Edmund Burke
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
There is no other consistent sunshine state that can overcome our frigid foe. While Florida has been accused of being lazy in this campaign, it has merely been because of the early onset of daylight savings time.
In short Florida will melt away Alaska's support. This will have the side effect returning Texas to its rightful place as the largest state.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
"In my youth, it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics." -- Ronald Coase
It feels so good to have one of the two true conservatives (Mitt or Fred) win tonight. It is overdue!
Now my hope is that more of the party base rallies around Mitt and helps him capture the nomination.
So glad that Mitt won and that McCain and Hukabee lost.
No resting now. On to South Carolina!
Seems like is a whole lot of Obama (or anti-Hillary) excitement there. "Vote for uncommitted" is a very difficult message to get out.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
n/t
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
so how is this < 95%?
Hillary Rodham Clinton was the only top contender on the Democratic ballot. With 43 percent of precincts counted, she had 58.7 percent of the vote to 35.9 percent for uncommitted delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
Either that, or they didn't punch the chad out all the way.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Kucinich and Gravel were on the ballot, so there were really three choices:
- Hillary (55%)
- Uncommitted (40%)
- Ought to be committed (5%)
UNCOMMITTED is closing the gap!
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
talking about how rotten the economy is.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
He really needs to work on the breaking voice and lip biting, though.
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
How long before Huckabee talks about what a great finish third was with 16%, reminding us all that only three months ago, he was a virtual unknown?
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Are we sure Huck's speech isn't a voice over from John Edwards? Can this bum even define conservative?
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
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Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Romney interupts media coverage of McCain's concession by going ahead with his victory speech. I have a feeling Mitt's comments about drawing inspiration from Reagan is going to be played side by side with his '94 debate comments in a tv ad in SC and FLA.
McCain '08
or anything it is just the standard protocal to have everyone speak in reverse order of finish. I was just commenting on the oddity and if McCain was reading his remarks again, Mitt might have saved him from looking old again. This is hardball politics and if can get an advantage I would take it. Huck was towards the end of his remarks and his warm up act was long. Fox is talking about it now. McCain is upset according to Cameron. As
McCain '08
I meant to finish my previous comment by saying as a McCain guy I hope he does not pull a Cornyn about it.
McCain '08
He sounded more like Steve Forbes tonight in his concession speech. He kept talking about "free enterprise", and "lowering taxes", "keeping government small", and "keeping government out of our families". Frankly, I really liked his speech - I wish he had spoken like this all along.
I have to say (and I hate to admit this), but I'm kinda warming up to the Huck. I'm not ready to make him my number one, but I'm not opposed to him anymore either. Sheesh.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I don't have a TV tonight, and I was hoping that Huck would mention in his concession speech that 15% was a great finish seeing how only three months ago, he was a virtual unknown...did that happen?
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
Fred's really got to pull through for us in South Carolina now. If he wins there, I stick by my post-Iowa prediction that Huckabee will be a one-hit wonder. A win by Thompson in SC will also slow McCain down considerably.
Romney supporters in SC need to vote Thompson.
he is getting in SC on local talk radio on immigration and other issues makes me think that his poll numbers here after Iowa were his high water marks. He has a 20% or so base of national security cons and dems and indies, but I am more and more optimistic that Fred can pull out a win here.
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
Because he doesn't believe in it for a second. He is seeing the writing on the wall, and that his sole appeal so far has been amongst evangelical voters who don't know anything about him other than that he is a Baptist minister.
His supporters will interpret his loss because he was a baptist minister and think the rest of party looks down on religious people. (Even though many of the people campaigning against him are clergy)
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
so don't worry
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"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
to vote for uncommitted on the GOP side. If you do not like the candidates then do not vote. It is not like we have a horrible slate of candidates and every subset in the base has a candidate.
McCain '08
The turnout this year is wacky because both parties have sanctioned Michigan, and apparently the weather was terrible.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
What do you mean that both parties sanctioned Michigan?
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
Democrats stripped Michigan of all their delegates, the Republicans stripped Michigan of half their delegates.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
What kind of word can mean two opposing things without changing a thing about the word?
I was thinking you meant the positive version of the word. My bad.
There are those who look at things the way they are, and ask why ... I dream of things that never were and ask why not. - Robert Kennedy
How the hell does ANYONE believe that McCain can now carry UBER-CONSERVATIVE South Carolina?
Conservatives HATE McCain! Get it?
And most Red Staters hate all caps :) n/t
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
I work in SC. There's quite a large following for McCain here. What all the "ubar" conservabloggers don't "get" is offline conservatives and, frankly, older conservatives.
The war, and the GWOT are big issues down here in the south. McCain has oodles of credibility on these issues here. Interestingly, so does Rudy, and if he'd campaigned here at all he probably could have done well. Yes, down here in the conservative belt.
Now, true, a number of my fellow evangelicals are still going Huckabee, but a large number of them are for Romney and Fred as well. And Fred's numbers are climbing fast.
If York County is any indication of SC as a whole, I think it is highly possible that Fred and McCain will be 1 and 2 respectively here.
People need to stop underestimating the prominence of foreign affairs in South Carolina. I'm a conservative, but I'm also a veteran. I was in the Marine Corps, in intel. McCain carries a lot of weight with me on the war. That's a big deal.
Heck, the war is why I'd vote for Hillary over Ron Paul.
Conservative, liberal, moderate, libertarian; I'm the guy with the gun.
It makes a difference. And don't start quoting records to me. I'm talking about the people I know who vote here. Whether you think they are wrong is a different issue from whether or I'm conveying an accurate barometric reading of their coming votes.
absentee
declared Jan. 15 as Fred Thompson Day. Is York, SC in York County?
www.fred08.com
Redneck Hippie
It is, and in fact, York County is where I saw Fred today, and where I'll see McCain tomorrow.
absentee
www.fred08.com
Redneck Hippie
***
“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
McCain does very well among veterans. The CNN exit poll shows him winning vets 41-32 over Romney, while losing everyone else 28-38 to Romney. SC has one of, if not the, highest percent of vets in the country, so it's not surprising that McCain does OK in SC.
To all of the Fred and Rudy suppoorters in MI that cast a vote for Mitt.
Thank you!
After watching the primary results I have a curious empathy for the guy who keeps hurting himself.
______________________________
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
-Thomas Paine: The American Crisis, No. 4, 1777
I'm sure that I'm being partial. I was outta my chair cheering him on...
Nice to see that Huckabee was a one hit wonder. Romney just eliminated him as a serious candidate tonight.
The WSJ calls MI for Romney.
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And statesmen at her council met
Who knew the seasons when to take
Occasion by the hand, and make
The bounds of freedom wider yet
- Tennyson, _To the Queen_
Downplay Wyoming all you want, but it is still a state and votes and chooses too.
Wyoming had caucuses and Romney won with well over 60% of the caucus votes.
And, Romney campaigned there, as did Thompson, Hunter and Paul. Thompson and Hunter also got delegates, but Paul did not. Romney got the majority, as he won by a huge majority.
People are tired of only having the small states of Iowa and New Hampshire deciding who we can vote for in November.
And, McCain won in New Hampshire, and he should have, but my only about five points as compared to 19 points against Bush. That was a let-down, no matter how you look at it. And, he lost in Michigan, which he won previously.
Mitt did have roots in Michigan, but he has not lived there for years and years and years.
And, I am not from Iowa, New Hampshire, Wyoming or Michigan, though I did go to law school in Michigan.
Don't underestimate the importance of Mitt's Michigan roots. According to the CNN exit poll, Romney beat McCain 58-17(!) among the 42% who thought Romney's ties to Michigan were important. He lost to McCain 23-39 among the 56% who thought Romney's ties to Michigan were not important. I really think you have to put an asterik beside this win for Romney because he wouldn't have made it without his family ties.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#val...
Can we add the "an asterik next to his name" as a cliche too? It may not get used that often in politics, but the general population has been doing it quite often lately.
If we aren't careful I may just well wake up my 2 year old! That would be far worse than nearly ruining my keyboard on the FLA comments.
Just saw this CNN analysis. Evangelicals broke in favor of Romney instead of Huckabee. This should speak to what I've been reading about South Carolina. SC's Evangelicals do not vote in 'one block' as they do in Iowa.
That is serious bad news for the Huckabee campaign. Foreshadowing SC, perhaps? I would be thrilled with a Thompson victory in SC, cause that would eliminate Huck, and damage McCain. Plus, if history repeats, we'll still have a conservative in the WH even though I support Romney.
Freedom and religion endure together, or perish alone. --Mitt Romney
Evangelicals in MI, excluding Grand Rapids. Seems to be a shade less liberal than Wisconsin if you ask me.
"Be intolerant. Because some things are just stupid"
- Ryan Dobson
The CNN exit polls said 33% of evangelicals for Romney, vs. 31% for Huckabee.
And actually, Romney didn't get shut out in Iowa. He got 19% of the evangelical vote, to Huckabee's 49% - a much, much larger differential, obviously, but it's not like Huckabee got a clean sweep there, contrary to popular belief.
The Unofficial RedState FAQ
“You are not only responsible for what you say, but also for what you do not say. ” - Martin Luther
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
He says it would be a disaster for America if McCain won.
"Be intolerant. Because some things are just stupid"
- Ryan Dobson
Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
www.fred08.com
---
Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. - Milton Friedman
Which I naturally can't find when I need it, but Marcus Trelaina had an extensive list the other day. I think he titled it Vote No on McCain.
Rush opposes McCain because he knew the stuff Marcus listed out.
(and btw, I hope my memory is not in full fledged brain fart mode here. I think the diary info is correct, by I would not convict based on my memory. :)
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
I not only couldn't find the post, I couldn't even get Marcus' name right.
They are both right here: here
I meant what I said and I said what I meant. An elephant's faithful 100 percent.
He did what he had to do to make it happen.
Go Huck in SC!
Quite heartless.
He probably did Johnny Mac a favor, considering the old man was having a tantrum from all reports. Thompson, Romney 1 and 2 in SC, Romney winning FL. By the way, where's that 25 percent for Slick Willy Jr?
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
Here's the speech on video. Let me know what time the tantrum happens?
It actually is a much better speech than his post-NH victory speech when he waited for Romney to give his full concession speech first.
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A tantrum as in he was supposedly hoppin mad that he lost. Someone else put it up earlier, its a long thread I don't remember who.
If you ever find that you only have an hour to live,spend it with a liberal and it will seem like a year."-Rush Limbaugh
I posted on the Hate Thompson thread of PennPatriot's that the unfairness I was refering to was his absurd assumption that Fred is not a legit candidate because he got less votes than HWSNBN and not that their was any conspiracy by Fred and Mitt to steal the election away from McCain. Mitt had a great night and IMHO the best night out of any candidate as he had a larger winning than than Huck or McCain had.
McCain '08
He followed McCain's lead as he cut Huck off first. Complain if you like but I watched him do it your guy just seconds before it happened to him.
One of the scenarios is that it was all lined up, then Huckabee ran late so that threw the rest off.
Heck, I don't know.
Last updated at 10:19 p.m.
3,393 of 5,385 precincts - 63 percent
x-Mitt Romney 229,576 - 39 percent
John McCain 176,501 - 30 percent
Mike Huckabee 94,526 - 16 percent
Ron Paul 37,450 - 6 percent
Fred Thompson 21,835 - 4 percent
Rudy Giuliani 16,522 - 3 percent
Uncommitted 11,569 - 2 percent
Duncan Hunter 1,922 - 0 percent
Tom Tancredo 306 - 0 percent
Sam Brownback 264 - 0 percent
Joanie
RV Wanna-be
Maddie the Wonderdog
It is of the LORD's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions fail not.
Lamentations 3:22
destroying each other on H&C right now.
McCain '08
Evangelicals and Mormons have worked together for years on issues such as abortion, pornography, traditional marriage, the christian foundations of this nation, etc.
Is it not time we got back together before it is too late? The values are the same, let's win together again.
This sets up a 4 way tie in South Carolina between McCain, Huckabee, Romney, and Fred.
I bet this will set the stage for a huge Huckabee win in SC followed by a Huckabee win in Florida.