NE-SEN: Kerrey (D) won't run
Another Break for the Republicans
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (8) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Ex-Senator Kerrey (D) has announced he will not return from NYC to run for the open Senate seat in Nebraska. Now, ex-GOV Mike Johanns (R) and AG Bruning (R) can duke it out in a primary with a heavy lead against whomever the Ds nominate. Another seat shifts from toss-up to likely R.
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NE-SEN: Kerrey (D) won't run 8 Comments (0 topical, 8 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
This should allow the Republicans to pick the more conservative option in the primaries without regards to the general election match up.
Watch how immigration plays out in this primary race as I think that will give you a gauge for 2008 as a whole.
Oz
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But NE is not a carbon-copy of the US. For one, it is one of the least diverse states. So what happens in NE on immigration may not match what happens in TX, AZ, NV, CO or FL.
I think MA-05 was better evidence of a successful immigration position. Ogonowski was able to be a hardliner without being seen as insensitive and anti-Mexican. Rs should probably be studying how he did that.
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I predicted this the second Johanns entered the race. There is absolutely no reason for Kerrey to move halfway across the country to wage what would be an extremely bloody and difficult campaign with, at best, a 50% chance to win.
Anyhow, you mine as well say "Congrats Sen. Johanns," right now, it'll save time for later.
Jindal/Palin '16
I'll make that trade anyday! That's one more vote for the defense of marriage amendment, if/when we need it.
Not that it applies to the Nebraska race because I think Gov. Johanns is a shoe-in.
However, if a Supreme Court justice announces that he/she is retiring at the end of this term or dies during the term...does that help or hurt our Republican candidates for both the Senate and the POTUS?
Helps. A lot. Unless Bush is REALLY stupid, which I don't think he would be.
Here's what would happen:
Bush nominates Michael McConnell/Michael Luttig/Edith Jones or whomever.
D's go apeshit. Certainly would either filibuster or, if they could keep totally united, vote down.
There is no way in hell that could possibly do anything but help us. The D's will HAVE do to this in order to keep their base, but they'll alienate swing voters. In spite of all the D's blowhard statements, the country still wants a conservative SC, especially if the nominee is very well qualified and not scary (i.e. doesn't look or talk weird like Bork did).
The only way Bush could screw up is to nominate an O'Connor clone or a Harriet Myers wannabe. It would be better for R's, and the country, to get a strict constructionist voted down then it would to capitulate. Even if they vote the nominee down, so what? It would help us win the presidency, so we'd get the choice eventually anyway.
Jindal/Palin '16
It has got to help us if Bush nominates someone as good as Roberts or Alito. It fires up the base, and the center seems to favor Bush's picks. Judges seem to be a winning issue for us.
Johanns will win this primary. Don't expect him to make huge waves in the Senate, but he will steadily be a conservative voice on the Hill.
And now, I join the chorus of those from a few months ago who were happy when Hagel retired.
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