NH Evening Open Thread #1
By Adam C Posted in 2008 — Comments (114) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
Exit polls should be leaked in the next hour or so. FoxNews has this election day phone poll (not an exit poll):
McCain 35
Romney 34
Huck 12
Independents saying the are voting:
Repub 41
Demo 59
Is voting in R primary went:
McCain 36
Romney 24
I think I'll go ahead and call it for McCain. Just kidding.
[UPDATE 8:11 PM]
FoxNews calls for McCain at 8:11.
Current vote total (11% reporting):
McCain 37
Romney 28
Huck 11
Rudy 9
Paul 8
Clinton 38
Obama 36
Edwards 17
Richardson 4
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NH Evening Open Thread #1 114 Comments (0 topical, 114 editorial, 0 hidden) Post a comment »
I'll admit I was worried. I thought Mitt had a tailwind in the last couple days, but with 8% in McCain has a ten point lead. Then again, those same results have HRC up by two, so this can't be a representative sample. Fingers crossed!
Future Markets just jumped from 80% to 99% for a McCain win. This may not even be close. That's a surprise.
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It's the general public. So a few insiders who hear from the media outlets early can make bids and change the percentages.
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OBAMA 36; CLINTON 38; EDWARDS 17; RICHARDSON 4; KUCINICH 2...
MCCAIN 38; ROMNEY 28; HUCKABEE 12; PAUL 8; GIULIANI 9; THOMPSON 1...
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It looks like a stuffed suit sale on MSNBC.
I might have disregarded their coverage entirely, otherwise.
The WMUR website is doing a good job tonight, though their poll returns are a few minutes behind CNN's.
Not good for Mitt if he loses this one by ten points. Still, he will go on to Michigan.
I expect Paul to do 10% by the end of the night.
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I was brought up to believe that how I saw myself was more important than how others saw me. (Anwar al-Sadat, President of Egypt, 1970-1981)
J. Martin over at politico says good numbers coming in for McCain in Concord. Hold onto that lucky nickel, John.
"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk
Hands down this is the best site out there:
http://www.politico.com/nhprimaries/nhmap-popup.html
Flash site with precinct by precinct data when you roll over the town and it updates automatically...
Ahhhhhhh!!!!!!! I think I just freaked out my neighbors as well as my dog!
MI is next Tuesday, Romney gets a rematch against McCain there.
But Romney needs a win in MI or else he is going to be irrelevant real fast.
This time around, Rudy will be cheering from Romney. Huck is probably going to go for the kill. If Huck can beat Romney in MI, he can put the stake in him. Fred is probably still cheering for his buddy.
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...between Huck, McCain, and Romney. McCain is going to have to go after Huck soon.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
Whew...that's a daunting number.
Congrats to McCain on the win. Romney may be toast.
Rudy, on the other hand, may just benefit from a wide open GOP field going into Super Tuesday.
...down to Huck or McCain. Geez Louise. I suppose I'd lean McCain in that instance.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
"Unstoppable" isn't exactly the word that springs to mind. ;)
Neither one of those guys will be on the Republican ticket this fall.
"No matter how much lipstick you put on the taxation pig, it's still a pig... and it's currently snout-down in your wallet." - Michael Fisk
Eli Manning is.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
...that Huck will win ANY state outside the solid south against Hillary/Obama. Specifically, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, & Missouri.
“.....women and minorities hardest hit”
I believe it to be...Unstoppable? Huckabee/McCain? Really? I remember a Mondale/Ferraro ticket too...Just as ludicrous, just as big a disaster in the making.
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
1. Huckabee and McCain can greatly appeal to independents.
2. Huckabee proved that he can turn out the socially conservative base in huge numbers.
3. McCain brings gravitas and foreign policy credibility to the ticket.
4. Both of them are excellent communicators and straight shooters.
5. Both of them know how to handle the media.
6. Both of them have experience (Huck has a decade of executive experience; McCain has decades of legislative experience).
7. Both of them are winners.
McCain is known to channel Barry Goldwater from time to time. I doubt that McCain and the Mullah Huckabee would see eye to eye over the long haul.
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Proud member of the Barry Goldwater wing of the party !
That's a low blow. Huck is either my last choice of the big 5, but calling him "Mullah Huckabee" is totally out of line and uncalled for.
John Bolton for President
"FEAR THE 'STACH!!!"
McCain vs. Huckabee vs. Giuliani race. This very best possible scenario for Huckabee.
He got enough independent voters to win at ease and, probably, to make Clinton the winner in the Dems.
Johnny Mac doing his magic!
who prefer anyone but Huck to McCain! Where are the FredHeads and Mittsters? Must all be drinking. I'm working.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
I'd be seeking a Grey Goose oblivion.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
We actually needed McCain to win this one and to slow Huckabee's MO...I would in fact love it if Giuliani came in ahead of Huckabee (heck if RP came in ahead of Huckabee I might run naked through the streets). Now it's on to Michigan, Romney's state, and then onto SC where Fred is hard at work! It's gonna be one heck of a primary!
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
Who really want to win the general elections and who are really worried about the government spending and the war on terror.
Be sure to listen for the giant sucking sound of conservatives going 3rd party if McCain is our nominee. I will Never donate 1 cent to this RINO party ever again. We could have done a lot better...a lot better than this...it's pathetic!
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
by going 3rd party. Who would it be, Bloomy??? Shoot me now.
I would have to go McCain in the general but don't let me near any firearms or cyanide.
I said for years if the choice were McCain vs. Hillary!, my head would explode. Of course I had not heard of Osama Obama then.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
Speaking of potential independent candidates, I was relieved to hear something good from Lou Dobbs last night in response to the "Draft Dobbs" movement. Lou says he doesn't have the nature or the personality to put up with what presidential candidates have to put up with. Nice to hear him say something encouraging for a change.
is completely unexpected by me. 40 to 35?
wow. great news for republicans.
actually worked in NH? It was so contrived and set up but whenever she's a victim she does well. Rush played it several times yesterday and it was more hilarious and fake-sounding every time. Maybe NH fell for it.
You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.
perhaps in relative terms but still more than superficially, so I think there must be more to their consideration. It's time for Obama to offer up some "beef."
http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/state?state=NH
At 13%, it's Clinton/Obama at 40/36; Edwards a distant 17.
This is going to be a lonnnnnnng night for our Left-analogues.
The Fuzzy Puppy of the VRWC. I've been usurped!
"I'm just beginning...The pen's in my hand...Ending unplanned"
I would like it a lot more if Rudy was ahead of Huck, but what can you do.
"Some people believe football is a matter of life and death. I'm very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that." - Bill Shankly
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I'm not voting for Ron Paul because it's not expressly prescribed in the Constitution.
-- Mark Hemingway, The Corner (NRO)
They thought all the independents were coming out for Obama. Wrong! They were coming out for McCain. This result shows that McCain can draw independents away from Obama in the general.
YES!
It means they'll be very contentious with each other between now and 5 February. Maybe they'll be forced to offer up some specifics, thus doing some of our work for us.
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Fred is making his move. He went from 1.46% up to 1.49%. Lookout!
-- digitalhap
if you remember the Playboy interview when he admitted to having felt lust in his heart while a married man.
big time underneath the smirk for losing nh
Before you get to heaven, you must go through hell, which in my case is the People's Republic of Massachusetts.
If I had just spent a fortune to win a primary, only to loose big to a man declared a political cadaver a few months ago, I would be angry too. He is up there with his family making his concession and he has to call out into the crowd to get his campaign team to get up there with him.
When the Iowa and New Hampshire media outlets spend their windfalls on big upgrades, he can always say he was very integral to those improvements.
I'm trying to work on other things, but given the obviously interesting results so far this evening, I wanted to ask anyone who's anyone a question about the Iowa caucuses that I just never got time to ask last week.
Back in 1988, the Iowa caucus winners were Richard Gephardt (D-MO) and Robert Dole (R-KS). As someone pointed out back then, all this proved is that Missouri and Kansas are very close to Iowa.
This year's winners were D-IL and R-AR - which also happen to (again) be the two geographic-closest candidates from the respective parties.
Iowa seems to have a history of this.
Is the Iowa caucus really more of a census than a vote?
Just askin' now that it looks like by Wed. morning the post-Iowa dynamics will have changed completely....
With Romney even more weak and FDT barely registering - who wins?
Is McCain suddenly the frontrunner? - maybe but not likely.
Does Huckabee stand a chance on Feb 5th - not likely but with this guy you never know
Romney - he's still got money and he should be very competitive in Michigan but his national numbers - ouch.
Paul - ...
Guiliani - maybe his strategy isn't going to look so bad after all. I would take him over Huckabee any day.
Thompson - He is barely showing up. Mitt isn't going to drop out anytime soon so he, the next best alternative to Mitt won't win.
There still is no front runner. The truth is that conservatives are hurt tonight - moderates and liberals win. Some of you who really dislike Mitt should think about what is really going on.
* PRIESTCRAFT is thus defined: “The stratagem and frauds of priests; fraud or imposition in religious concerns. Management of selfish and ambitious priests to gain wealth and power, or to impose upon the credulity of others.”
Does Huckabee stand a chance on Feb 5th - not likely but with this guy you never know
Huck is doing very very well in California.
Once Romney and Thompson are out, social conservatives will fully unite behind Huckabee, while McCain and Rudy compete for the same segment of voters. This is the dream scenario for Huckabee.
I'm a social conservative and I will vote for McCain or Rudy before I vote for Huckabee. I will only vote for Huckabee in the general.
-- digitalhap
I'd gladly vote for and donate to Thompson, McCain, Romney or Giuliani in that order.
I would only grudingly vote for Huckabee over a democrat. And I'm evangelical, southern baptist, southern, multi-con.
absentee
It's David Bowie's birthday, too (61). He may not be a citizen but he's a permanent resident, spending his money in NYC.
at rumors of other campaigns firing their managers?
She now has a larger lead in total votes over Obama than McCain did over Romney, but they won't call it...Are they that enamoured with Obama?
Texas Proud and Texas Loud
the good news is that participation in the American electoral process is alive and well. Maybe voter apathy as a trend will become a thing of the past.
I live in York County and Fred has plenty of support here.Maybe we can correct two mistakes this time McCain,and Huckabee.
_percent every time. also, it was dumb of Fox not to invite him. Better he beclown himself than become a martyr among whackos.
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Molon Labe!
I'm a university professor, and a Republican (I know, seems like an oxymoron, but it really isn't). Among my overwhelmingly liberal colleagues that I talk to, I can say honestly that McCain stands the best chance of winning over at least a few university professors to voting for him, especially if the D candidate is Hillary and they just can't stand the Clintons and their narcissism. Everyone says it is going to be a tough year for us R's this year and I know many of us have complaints with McCain and his positions and his antics but IMO he is the most electable R in the current climate.
How dare Edwards drag out his sick wife late at night in New Hampshire to give a political speech on HIS behalf. He's just another sexist redneck Southern white boy politician who cares for nothing about anyone's ambitions other than his own. Shame on you, John Edwards. Shame, shame, shame.
Oh wait, John Edwards is a D. Never mind.
And I used to like that song. Now whenever I see a pickup truck ad I'm going to think of Breck girl. Sigh.
or do all of the campaigns have terrible theme songs?
Well, all the good ones have been taken...besides it's not like you are going to see McCain up on stage with "Back in Black" playing in the background...
My thing about McCain is he has a long track record of not being a conservative.While he may be good on the war on terrorism so are some others.Lets not forget about the tax cuts,gang of fourteen,global warming,amnesty etc.McCain will have a hard time in SC because of the illegal imigration isssue mainly.He was counting on Lindsey Ghramnesty to pull him through this time but Lindsey has distanced himself from McCain lately because he is in real danger of not winning reelection because of his close association with McCain.So I would not give up on conservatism just yet,Freds still in the race.
I don't quite understand the criticism of McCain over tax cuts. Sure he opposed tax cuts which he thought were "irresponsible" in that they weren't associated with enough spending cuts. I agree that this view of taxation is too government-centric. But all that means to me is that a President McCain would propose to Congress legislation that contains BOTH tax cuts AND spending cuts at the same time, AND justify it in the context of "responsibility". This is a win-win-win! I don't see him pulling a G.H.W. Bush and trying to appease Congress with tax hikes. I agree that his amnesty plan is a complete non-starter and I can only hope that he has learned his lessn from the McCain-Kennedy fiasco last year.
The Senator has been going on a hostile Fox network and defending McCain against the "neutral" Sean Hannity. It may cost him some support, but he has been very loyal.
AP calls it for Hillary. Guess the crying really paid off. Maybe we here at RedState should send the Clinton campaign a case of Kleenex.
Well let's see...I think I have a couple of quarters in my sofa...
he is actually not shrill enough for the Democratic base. Yes, I know he is just right of a commie, but I can admit when a politician has charisma, if nothing else.
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Molon Labe!
All I am saying is from a conservative point of view he cant be trusted.He got the title maverick by going against us.With his past record I simply feel that I cant depend on him to do what I feel is in the best intrest of this country.All I can ask is not to put to much trust into campaign talking points and look at his record, he has not been a true conservative,spending included.The sad thing is Huckabee is alot worse than McCain is.
http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=53270
And this:
Senator McCain supported the interests of the Americans for Tax Reform 80 percent in 2006.
Senator McCain supported the interests of the FreedomWorks 83 percent in 2006.
Senator McCain supported the interests of the National Taxpayers Union 88 percent in 2006.
Senator McCain supported the interests of the National Tax Limitation Committee 85 percent in 2005-2006.
Senator McCain supported the interests of the Americans for Tax Reform 90 percent in 2005.
In 2005-2006 USA Engage gave Senator McCain a grade of A.
Senator McCain supported the interests of the CATO Institute--Center for Trade Policy Studies 82 percent in 2003-2004.
I guess they are all wrong.
Don't be fooled by the hype. Yes, McCain has taken a few "maverick" positions on a few important issues. The MSM loves to play it up every time he does so because, well, they drool whenever Republicans criticize other Republicans. His voting record _as a whole_ has been very solid, ESPECIALLY on the GWOT. This doesn't excuse his "maverick" votes but IMO it's a bit harsh to say he's not a "true" conservative just because, on a few high-profile issues, McCain's disagreements are blown way out of proportion by the MSM.
This is actually the first time I have heard an Obama speech and I can understand why he's attracted so much support. He is certainly a talented orator, but IMO it's more than that. He's the D version of Huckabee. He's basically a revival preacher, who's preaching the religion of liberalism.
Two shots of tequila says she cries tonite...
Who does she think all those college students screaming behind her are going to be working for?
What the hell is going on out here? - Vince Lombardi
Are you kidding? All those young, naive, idealistic college students aren't going to work for eeeeeeeeeeeevil oil, drug and insurance companies. No, they are going to work for the UN or for NGOs, traveling to foreign lands to fight poverty, end hunger, bring peace to the planet, and usher in a new era of tranquility and utopia. And then, and ONLY then, when that doesn't work, THEN they will work for the eeeeeeeeeevil oil, drug and insurance companies. Or something.
From the Union Leader:
"Secretary of State William Gardner has predicted 260,000 Granite Staters will vote in the Democratic primary and 240,000 will vote in the Republican primary. He predicted that 150,000 undeclared voters will cast votes - 90,000 in the Democratic primary and 60,000 in the Republican primary"